🇸🇩❌🇸🇩 The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) launched an offensive to relieve besieged units in Khartoum.

The end of Sudan's rainy season will increase fighting across the country, which will compound the humanitarian crisis and likely continue to stall peace talks.

Iranian or Turkish drones likely helped set conditions for the SAF offensive in Khartoum. “Drone attacks and artillery attacks (aided by drone spotters)” have complicated the RSF’s defense of key bridges.

The SAF began receiving Mohajer-6 multi-role drones from Iran in late 2023. Sudanese media said the Iranian drones were “decisive” as the SAF retook RSF-held areas in Omdurman in early 2024. The SAF also acquired Turkish TB2 Bayraktar drones from Egypt in October 2023

The recent rainy period from July through September contributed to decreased combat outside urban areas. Fighting has also already escalated around El Fasher, the provincial capital of North Darfur in the Darfur region, since late September.

New offensives in Sudan will likely stall peace efforts as both sides attempt to maximize their negotiating position. The SAF boycotted recent peace talks partially because it believed new weapons and recruits would lead to a military victory.

Increased fighting will also exacerbate the already dire humanitarian crisis, which the international community is failing to address. Over half of Sudan's population faces “acute hunger,” with over 750,000 facing famine, yet multilateral initiatives are severely underfunded.

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