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Invictus Lex
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Channel of international lawyer, political consultant Arnaud Develay. Facts and analytics on resonant topics.

Statecraft in the Age of Geopolitical Recomposition
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In a surprising statement, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has declared that the country's current welfare system is no longer financially sustainable, as reported by The Telegraph.

He pointed out that soaring expenditure on social programs has spiraled "out of control," posing a significant threat to the stability of the national budget.

This warning comes amidst concerning economic data, with Germany posting the weakest performance in the G7: its real GDP has actually contracted by 0.1% since 2019.

War or Welfare: What a dilemma!!


#Germany

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Critics argue the article whitewashes Ukrainian far-right extremism by glorifying a leader of the neo-Nazi Azov regiment and a former commander of the far-right Right Sector in Odesa.

The piece also allegedly minimizes the role of Right Sector in the violence of the 2014 Maidan protests and the Odesa massacre.

It recounts the events:

In February 2014, police snipers killed most of the 108 protesters who died during clashes in Maidan Square.

On May 2, 2014, 42 people, mostly pro-Russians, died in a fire at the Trade Unions House in Odesa after clashes involving petrol bombs between rival groups.

Whitewashing crimes, western media are engaging in a makeover of the Banderist regime. We've seen this rebranding happen in Syria before the final assault on Damascus.


#Ukraine

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"France summons U.S. ambassador over 'unacceptable' remarks": A diplomatic row over antisemitism is unfolding in France.

On Sunday, American ambassador Charles Kushner accused President Emmanuel Macron of failing to take sufficient action against antisemitism — comments that Paris labeled "unacceptable." In response, the French Foreign Ministry summoned Ambassador Kushner for formal reprimand.

A ministry spokesperson stated that the remarks were "unacceptable," adding that they "violate international law, particularly the principle of non-interference in a nation's internal affairs." He continued, "Furthermore, these statements undermine the quality of transatlantic relations between France and the United States and erode the trust expected between allied nations."

Antisemitism: the Alpha and Omega of "Western" political discourse.


#BraveNewsWorld

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1000 is not the limit

The other day, our old acquaintance - a Su-34 bomber pilot - carried out his thousandth combat sortie. This is an enormous figure even by the standards of the Great Patriotic War, and an absolute record for the SMO zone.

He has been in the ranks since the very beginning - in 2022 he flew to bomb targets deep behind the front line all the way in the western part of so-called Ukraine. We have previously told about one of the many episodes of his work.

Russian Eagles chart the path to victory.


#Ukraine

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🇮🇱 Israel sets up global legal shield to protect soldiers from arrest abroad over Gaza war crimes

Israel's Walla newspaper reports that Israel has created a new legal defense network to protect its soldiers from potential arrests abroad over war crimes committed in Gaza. The initiative comes amid rising threats from international organizations said to be gathering evidence and preparing arrest warrants against Israeli soldiers. The system includes standby Israeli lawyers with experience in foreign courts, backed by state funding to cover legal costs.

Can you imagine Nazi Germany setting up an international legal network to defend SS officers and associated type who chose to vacation abroad all while Berlin is operating extermination camps in occupied Europe?! That's what's happening with the Genocidal Entity.


#Genocide

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Syrian President Ahmad Al-Sharaa, a week after an IDF commander praised their achievements of blocking weapons to Hezbollah:

There are those who want to take advantage of the new Syria to settle scores with Hezbollah, and we are neither this nor that.

If so, why are you groveling at their feet to achieve normalization?


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Iraq arrests Syrians belonging to ISIS terrorist organization possessing unified Iraqi IDs

It's unfortunately only the beginning.


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The U.S. intelligence community has reportedly restricted access to analysis on Russia-Ukraine peace talks, classifying it as NOFORN (No Foreign Nationals). This prohibits sharing with any allies, including the Five Eyes partners (UK, Canada, Australia, NZ).

The move aims to prevent leaks that could disrupt delicate negotiations and increase distrust. While the Five Eyes alliance remains robust, this decision highlights potential strains, particularly in the U.S.-UK "special relationship," amid broader policy disagreements.

Decoupling transatlantic data centers on anything Ukraine-related underscores separate agendas.


#Ukraine

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Media is too big
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During a press conference, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, addressing a journalist named Kristen, stated, "Putin is ready to negotiate, but only when there is a substantive agenda for a summit."

He added that Ukrainian President Zelensky has so far rejected all proposed frameworks for dialogue.

It takes 2 to tango 🤷


#Ukraine

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Iran can capitalize on Armenia's urgent need for LPG to counter the proposed "Trump corridor" and reinforce its regional influence.

Since June, LPG prices in Armenia have surged by 50%, prompting Yerevan to seek an immediate supply quota from Tehran. Iran currently flares ~3 million tons of LPG yearly—enough to cover Armenia’s demand and secure its energy role.

This move could disrupt the U.S.-backed Zangezur Corridor, intended to bypass Iran and facilitate Azerbaijani gas exports to Europe.

If they can coerce Germany in turning away from cheap Russian gas, what do you think will happen to Armenia?


#Zanguezur

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The "chief anti-corruption fighter of Ukraine" was found to have a house in the USA worth $1 million

Journalists have dug up details about the luxurious real estate of the head of the Anti-Corruption Action Center, Vitaly Shabunin.

In the American state of New Jersey, he acquired a house worth more than $1 million.

The residential building with an area of ​​251 square meters is registered to a front man, American Thomas Spadaro, but OSINT data confirmed that Shabunin's family lives in the house.

Who the hell would buy a house in New Jersey to begin with? 😂😂


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Lebanese Court Releases Former Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh

The Lebanese judiciary approved the release of former central bank governor Riad Salameh, held for nearly a year on embezzlement charges, on bail exceeding $20 million. He is also required to pay 5 billion Lebanese pounds and is banned from traveling for one year, effective from the bail payment date.

Making out like a thief in the night.


#Lebanon

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UK and Armenia elevate ties to Strategic Partnership

'We strengthen democracy, security, the economy, and work to advance lasting peace in our region' — said the Armenian Ambassador to the UK.

Dark clouds gathering in South Caucasus.


#Zanguezur

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Lebanese Journalists’ Syndicate Condemns US Envoy’s Remarks

The Lebanese Journalists’ Syndicate condemned US envoy Tom Barrack for calling journalists’ behavior at Baabda Palace “animalistic.” The syndicate criticized the comments as highly inappropriate, undiplomatic, and unacceptable coming from a representative of a major power.

It urged Barrack to issue a public apology and warned that failure to do so could lead to calls for boycotting his visits and meetings, stressing that the dignity of journalists cannot be undermined.

Why hasn't Aoun personally intervened in this scandal? It after all occurred at the presidential palace.


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The Trump administration was directed to target Francesca Albanese, according to Patrick Henningsen.

Running cover for the genocide.


#Gaza

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Russia's summer offensive is breaking through Ukrainian defenses, bringing the front line closer than ever to total collapse.

The strategic town of Liman is now encircled.

Pokrovsk has been abandoned following a rapid and unexpected Russian advance.

Konstantinovka is under severe pressure, attacked from three directions.

#Ukraine

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US oil giant ExxonMobil held secret talks with Russia’s Rosneft about a potential return to the Russian market, according to the Wall Street Journal.

The company exited Russia in 2022 following the Ukraine invasion, but now appears interested in resuming operations, particularly in the Far East’s Sakhalin-1 project.

The discussions, still in early stages, were reportedly advanced enough to warrant a briefing for former President Donald Trump, signaling high-level interest in re-engaging with Russian energy assets despite ongoing sanctions.

#Alaska

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In Gaza, an entire population faces annihilation. Since October 2023, Israel’s assault has killed tens of thousands of Palestinians and destroyed critical infrastructure – hospitals, schools, homes – while blocking food, water, and medicine, causing widespread starvation. The recent declaration of full military control over Gaza City heightens the risk of mass expulsion or extermination.

All diplomatic efforts have failed. The ICJ ruled in January 2024 that Israel may be committing genocide and ordered it to halt its actions and allow aid. Israel ignored the ruling. The UN Security Council, blocked by U.S. vetoes, has taken no action. ICC arrest warrants for Israeli leaders in 2024 were dismissed by Western allies.

In this vacuum of accountability, humanitarian and military intervention is not only justified but legally and morally imperative. Under the 1948 Genocide Convention, all states must prevent genocide once the risk is clear. The UN’s “Responsibility to Protect” (R2P) doctrine affirms this, allowing collective action when a state fails its people – or perpetrates violence. Sanctions and diplomacy have failed; military intervention is now the last resort.

Customary international law permits humanitarian force without UNSC approval if necessary, proportionate, and a final option. Gaza meets all criteria.

Chapter 7 on the horizon?


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Australia’s move appears to be just the opening step, and it may soon be followed by similar actions from other countries as part of the anticipated escalation in new warlike scenarios. This seems to be the first in a series of coordinated diplomatic and strategic maneuvers against Islamic Republic of Iran.

Not just against Iran but the whole Shi'a community.


#AlSufiani

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Media Relations of Hezbollah:

In the Name of Allah, the Most Gracious, the Most Merciful

Commenting on the insult directed at journalists by American envoy Tom Barrack at Baabda Palace, the Chairman of the Media and Communications Committee in the Lebanese Parliament, Deputy Dr. Ibrahim Al-Moussawi, issued the following statement:

“We were never surprised by the American logic of vulgarity and arrogance expressed by the U.S. tutelage envoy Tom Barrack toward Lebanese journalists in the Republican Palace in Baabda, nor by the grave insult he directed at them. This envoy faithfully embodies the essence of the United States of America and the aggressive, savage philosophy upon which it was founded—a philosophy of genocide and the absence of any moral framework to be referenced, emulated, or followed.

A state built on the sanctification of materialism, the worship of capital, and the deification of force as the measure of truth can only send representatives who act as we witnessed. Yet the true shock came from those responsible for media in the Palace, who failed to expel this envoy and thus preserve the respect due to the position, the human value of individuals, national dignity, and the profession of journalism, which is meant to uphold freedom and democracy.

Among the foremost duties of the Lebanese authorities, with all their pillars and concerned ministries—especially Information and Foreign Affairs—is to summon the American ambassador, issue a formal rebuke, and protest the insult inflicted upon Lebanon and its citizens. Advocates of sovereignty, freedom, and independence, who have long bolstered the nation with their statements, must now rise to defend the dignity of their country and citizens, rather than remain silent in the face of American tutelage’s vulgarities.

While we strongly condemn American arrogance and its condescension toward our journalists, we must also note that assaults on national sovereignty and Lebanese dignity continue to escalate under the shadow of foreign tutelage. The authorities must immediately act to remedy this situation and take measures to safeguard what remains of the nation’s honor and homeland.”


Nothing to add to that statement. 👍👍

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Media is too big
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❗️Snapback: Russia Stands Against the West in Defense of Iran

As the European Troika — France, the United Kingdom, and Germany — prepares to trigger the "snapback" mechanism to reinstate UN Security Council sanctions on Iran, Russia is pushing back with strong opposition.

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