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Invictus Lex
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Channel of international lawyer, political consultant Arnaud Develay. Facts and analytics on resonant topics.

Statecraft in the Age of Geopolitical Recomposition
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UK and Armenia elevate ties to Strategic Partnership

'We strengthen democracy, security, the economy, and work to advance lasting peace in our region' — said the Armenian Ambassador to the UK.

Dark clouds gathering in South Caucasus.


#Zanguezur

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Lebanese Journalists’ Syndicate Condemns US Envoy’s Remarks

The Lebanese Journalists’ Syndicate condemned US envoy Tom Barrack for calling journalists’ behavior at Baabda Palace “animalistic.” The syndicate criticized the comments as highly inappropriate, undiplomatic, and unacceptable coming from a representative of a major power.

It urged Barrack to issue a public apology and warned that failure to do so could lead to calls for boycotting his visits and meetings, stressing that the dignity of journalists cannot be undermined.

Why hasn't Aoun personally intervened in this scandal? It after all occurred at the presidential palace.


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The Trump administration was directed to target Francesca Albanese, according to Patrick Henningsen.

Running cover for the genocide.


#Gaza

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Russia's summer offensive is breaking through Ukrainian defenses, bringing the front line closer than ever to total collapse.

The strategic town of Liman is now encircled.

Pokrovsk has been abandoned following a rapid and unexpected Russian advance.

Konstantinovka is under severe pressure, attacked from three directions.

#Ukraine

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US oil giant ExxonMobil held secret talks with Russia’s Rosneft about a potential return to the Russian market, according to the Wall Street Journal.

The company exited Russia in 2022 following the Ukraine invasion, but now appears interested in resuming operations, particularly in the Far East’s Sakhalin-1 project.

The discussions, still in early stages, were reportedly advanced enough to warrant a briefing for former President Donald Trump, signaling high-level interest in re-engaging with Russian energy assets despite ongoing sanctions.

#Alaska

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In Gaza, an entire population faces annihilation. Since October 2023, Israel’s assault has killed tens of thousands of Palestinians and destroyed critical infrastructure – hospitals, schools, homes – while blocking food, water, and medicine, causing widespread starvation. The recent declaration of full military control over Gaza City heightens the risk of mass expulsion or extermination.

All diplomatic efforts have failed. The ICJ ruled in January 2024 that Israel may be committing genocide and ordered it to halt its actions and allow aid. Israel ignored the ruling. The UN Security Council, blocked by U.S. vetoes, has taken no action. ICC arrest warrants for Israeli leaders in 2024 were dismissed by Western allies.

In this vacuum of accountability, humanitarian and military intervention is not only justified but legally and morally imperative. Under the 1948 Genocide Convention, all states must prevent genocide once the risk is clear. The UN’s “Responsibility to Protect” (R2P) doctrine affirms this, allowing collective action when a state fails its people – or perpetrates violence. Sanctions and diplomacy have failed; military intervention is now the last resort.

Customary international law permits humanitarian force without UNSC approval if necessary, proportionate, and a final option. Gaza meets all criteria.

Chapter 7 on the horizon?


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Australia’s move appears to be just the opening step, and it may soon be followed by similar actions from other countries as part of the anticipated escalation in new warlike scenarios. This seems to be the first in a series of coordinated diplomatic and strategic maneuvers against Islamic Republic of Iran.

Not just against Iran but the whole Shi'a community.


#AlSufiani

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Media Relations of Hezbollah:

In the Name of Allah, the Most Gracious, the Most Merciful

Commenting on the insult directed at journalists by American envoy Tom Barrack at Baabda Palace, the Chairman of the Media and Communications Committee in the Lebanese Parliament, Deputy Dr. Ibrahim Al-Moussawi, issued the following statement:

“We were never surprised by the American logic of vulgarity and arrogance expressed by the U.S. tutelage envoy Tom Barrack toward Lebanese journalists in the Republican Palace in Baabda, nor by the grave insult he directed at them. This envoy faithfully embodies the essence of the United States of America and the aggressive, savage philosophy upon which it was founded—a philosophy of genocide and the absence of any moral framework to be referenced, emulated, or followed.

A state built on the sanctification of materialism, the worship of capital, and the deification of force as the measure of truth can only send representatives who act as we witnessed. Yet the true shock came from those responsible for media in the Palace, who failed to expel this envoy and thus preserve the respect due to the position, the human value of individuals, national dignity, and the profession of journalism, which is meant to uphold freedom and democracy.

Among the foremost duties of the Lebanese authorities, with all their pillars and concerned ministries—especially Information and Foreign Affairs—is to summon the American ambassador, issue a formal rebuke, and protest the insult inflicted upon Lebanon and its citizens. Advocates of sovereignty, freedom, and independence, who have long bolstered the nation with their statements, must now rise to defend the dignity of their country and citizens, rather than remain silent in the face of American tutelage’s vulgarities.

While we strongly condemn American arrogance and its condescension toward our journalists, we must also note that assaults on national sovereignty and Lebanese dignity continue to escalate under the shadow of foreign tutelage. The authorities must immediately act to remedy this situation and take measures to safeguard what remains of the nation’s honor and homeland.”


Nothing to add to that statement. 👍👍

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❗️Snapback: Russia Stands Against the West in Defense of Iran

As the European Troika — France, the United Kingdom, and Germany — prepares to trigger the "snapback" mechanism to reinstate UN Security Council sanctions on Iran, Russia is pushing back with strong opposition.

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Reuters may be jumping the gun with reports like this, but it's still worth noting.

The E3-imposed deadline is approaching this weekend, and Iran has yet to allow IAEA inspections, re-engage with the US, or remove its enriched uranium stockpiles.

Meanwhile, Israeli sabotage operations, coupled with severe shortages of water and electricity, have sparked widespread protests across Iran. There are also signs of internal government divisions. The reimposition of "snapback" sanctions would only deepen the crisis.

It seems increasingly unlikely that the Ayatollah will approve new negotiations, and Iran is certainly not poised to back down. The prospect of a new Iran war is feeling more imminent by the day.

Notwithstanding its paying heed to its ally's efforts to salvage the JCPOA, Iran cannot afford to look weak and succumb to blackmail.


#JCPOA

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Australia’s claims linking Iran to antisemitic attacks are absurd and unfounded.

▶️ Arnaud Develay, political analyst and human rights lawyer, shares his perspective on the issue.

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Outrage erupts in Iran's Parliament over decision to allow IAEA inspectors back into the country.

MP Amir-Hossein Sabeti branded the inspectors as spies, accusing them of operating under the guise of monitoring while conducting espionage.

Addressing Foreign Minister Araghchi, Sabeti slammed the agreement, calling it a "disaster":

"You go into negotiations and accept terms like this, and then it comes back to haunt us."


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In the latest issue of Global Insights, expert Arnaud Develey argues that Africa finds itself navigating complex global diplomacy that often sidelines its interests. He emphasizes the need for African nations to reinforce national security measures as a foundational step in safeguarding their economic assets.

With external influences increasingly shaping the continent’s future, this discussion sheds light on the critical balance between global engagement and the preservation of sovereignty in the wake of economic and political challenges. The article analyses the intricate relationship between national security, economic development, and the role of African nations on the world stage.

https://youtu.be/lFBoNZPpV3k?si=XYEu_NpeKdNQv-xM

Only a robust and uncompromising stance on sovereignty will allow Africa to shake the yoke of neoliberalism and néocolonialism.


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By 2027, almost 400 thousand more people will leave Ukraine, the Ukrainian Migration Policy Office predicts.

The utter destruction of a Slavic country by the international banking cartel.


#Ukraine

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The Slaughter will go on for years unless Russia wins swiftly AND decisively

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Vance says he's ready to step in "if, God forbid, there’s a terrible tragedy" and he must assume the presidency from Trump.

He calmly notes that his 200 days of on-the-job training have prepared him well for the role.

But he remains confident that Trump, at 78, is in GOOD health.

U just couldn't resist, couldn't you JD?


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Trump's priority is to restore normal relations with Russia, and in his view, Ukraine is an obstacle to that goal, writes Le Point.

A source told the French newspaper that the US president understands no agreement between Washington and Moscow can be reached without resolving the Ukraine issue.

Meanwhile, Politico reports that the EU is considering the creation of a 40-kilometer buffer zone as part of a peace deal. Peacekeepers would patrol the demilitarized area and simultaneously train Ukrainian forces. French and British troops are expected to play a leading role in the mission.

In your dreams. 🙄

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A massive leak of former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak's emails (100,000 emails) revealed that he and Jeffrey Epstein were talking about meeting Peter Thiel, who owns Palantir.

Former Israeli PM Ehud Barak tells Jeffrey Epstein that he is “trying to arrange it so the security guys will NOT come with us to the island.”

The #EpsteinFiles will keep dogging Trump until the end of his term


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