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Invictus Lex
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Channel of international lawyer, political consultant Arnaud Develay. Facts and analytics on resonant topics.

Statecraft in the Age of Geopolitical Recomposition
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3 Reasons This Expert Believes Israel Will Launch a Major War Against Iran Before Christmas 2025

In a stark and urgent warning, Professor Haim Bresheeth forecasts that Israel will initiate a large-scale war with Iran before the end of 2025—possibly before Christmas. He contends that the current “Gaza peace deal” is little more than a strategic decoy, aimed at freeing up Israeli military capacity for what he sees as its true objective: a full-blown confrontation with Iran.

In this incisive analysis, Bresheeth warns of a looming regional escalation fueled by two key factors: the waning influence of a faltering Western empire and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s mounting domestic political crisis. He denounces the Gaza agreement as an “evil comedy,” offering Palestinians only a grim choice between “slavery” and “death.”

According to Bresheeth, this isn’t about peace—it’s about preparation. And the world, he warns, may be teetering on the edge of a catastrophic new war with Iran.

It's a race against time on Iran's part to replenish its air defenses


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An analysis of the most relevant events on the current world stage: the peace plan between Israel and Palestine, the new balance of power in the Middle East, the conflict in Ukraine, the current situation of the European Union, the tensions between the United States and Venezuela, the role of BRICS as a vector of the emerging multipolar order.

Special guest: Arnaud Develay, lawyer specialized in humanitarian and international criminal law https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kofipzLiOhU

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Israel sent Greta Thunberg's luggage back

Reportedly writing on it: 'Wh*re Greta', an Israeli flag, and a p*nis drawing

Who would resort to do such thing against a harmless girl?


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IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi says repairs at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant are expected to start “soon.”

“I’m in contact with both Russia and Ukraine, and they both say they want the necessary repairs to go ahead,” he stated.

Grossi warned that the situation remains unstable, as the plant has been running on emergency diesel generators for three weeks.

Desperately trying to remain relevant


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Venezuelan Interior Minister bursts into laughter, claiming Trump has just let the CIA in — unverified footage of Diosdado Cabello surfaces in a report by Venezuela Network.

This is getting weirder by the day


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Trump Waves Threat of New Israeli Offensive in Gaza

U.S. President Donald Trump warned he would allow Israel to resume military operations in the Gaza Strip if the Palestinian resistance movement Hamas fails to comply with his proposed ceasefire plan.

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President Petro “knows what could happen” to Colombia now that Trump has reportedly allowed “violent CIA operatives” into neighboring Venezuela.

Very likely Gustavo is on the CIA hit list


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This is the condition in which the bodies of Palestinian prisoners are returned by Israel’s genocidal regime: hanged, blindfolded, with hands and feet bound in cuffs.

This régime must be crushed


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The following is not aimed at anyone — it is me stating a personal opinion after much time and consideration over the months since the fall of Syria. There is no interest in online disputes.

Having spent 1.5 years in Syria — mostly between 2014 and 2019, during the war’s darkest and most dangerous period (also going there in 2020 and 2021) with a focus on Syrian civilians —I am not callous or indifferent to their current ongoing suffering. On the contrary, I have and continue to try and help them, including efforts to get out of Syria and to safety.

The narrative that “Russia betrayed Syria” has never been accepted. Syria’s collapse resulted from internal betrayal — originating from within Assad’s inner circle and parts of the army.

Russia saved Assad and his family, granted asylum to thousands of Syrians, and maintains a pragmatic presence in Syria — not out of treachery, but out of strategic interest. Claims that Assad is “under house arrest” or that Russia jammed SAA communications are baseless; Israel has a long history of cyberwarfare, and the Presidential Palace was empty well before the fall.

No one—not even those on the ground in Syria — knows the full truth; confusion was widespread. Sensational claims (e.g., Assad poisoned, the First Lady fleeing, etc.) often originate from SOHR, a UK-linked source, and appear designed to vilify Russia.
Amen

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In Yemen’s report, it was stated that some of the most dangerous espionage cells that have become active are affiliated with organizations operating in the humanitarian field, notably the World Food Programme and UNICEF.

Of course, the Satanic forces claimed the opposite in Gaza where the same World Food Program was accused of spying for Hamas as a pretext to kick the organization out and thus create the conditions for starvation of the population.


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Zelensky explains his repeated suit choice:

“Same suit because I’m the same president.”
“The next president will wear a different one.”


Good luck with that — Zelensky’s elections have been canceled.

Same suit for the same clown


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It seems that Javad Zarif is on a crusade to emphasise on talking points certain groups of people like to hear, in order to restore his image and pave the way for a position within the system.

People should be wary of his intentions.

According to IRNA:
Javad Zarif accused Russian FM Lavrov of lying about the JCPOA snapback mechanism. Zarif says Lavrov once tried to block the JCPOA, opposed lifting the arms embargo, and that Russia leaked sensitive information about Qassem Soleimani’s trip and Iran’s drone support to Moscow.

Zarif also defended JCPOA, saying it improved Iran’s nuclear capabilities, earned rare support from both Russia and China, and that diplomacy — not fear of negotiation — remains Iran’s only rational path forward.


National Lampoon Vacation


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The ICC rejects Israel's appeal regarding the arrest warrants issued against Netanyahu and Gallant

The Pre-Trial Chamber of the International Criminal Court (ICC) has rejected Israel's appeal against its previous decision, which had dismissed Israel's attempt to withdraw the arrest warrants issued against Benjamin Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant.

This decision confirms the ICC's earlier ruling, keeping the warrants in effect as part of ongoing investigations into international law crimes.

Now it behooves Member-States to execute them per AA 27 of the Rome Statute


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The Russian envoy to Iraq stated that Moscow would not hand over former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to the Syrian regime, adding that he was in Russia under humanitarian asylum

So far so good.


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'Criticize Israeli govt — they call you an antisemite' — Ana Kasparian

'Imagine if RUSSIA did what Israel does'

Pretty straight forward to me!!


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'Putin signals Trump he's ready for a deal'— oligarch Khodorkovsky

Once imprisoned for embezzlement of state funds & PARDONED — today he's a 'victim of the regime' for Western media.

What does a thief traitor know about what Putin thinks?


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Iranian Resistance to "Snapback": A Turning Point for Multilateralism and Justice (Report)

For decades, the Western-dominated world order has been undergoing profound transformation. Once a symbol of unity and cooperation, the UN Security Council now lies at the epicenter of a deepening geopolitical rift—exposed most starkly by the controversy surrounding the “snapback” mechanism.

Arnaud Develay offers a clear and incisive perspective on this critical issue.


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Trump warned Zelensky to surrender Donbas or face being “DESTROYED” by Russia, according to the Financial Times.

Their latest White House meeting reportedly erupted into a “SHOUTING MATCH,” with Trump “constantly cursing.”

This time, the suit didn’t save him.

This is getting interesting


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China’s most significant political gathering of the decade — the Fourth Plenum of the Central Committee — kicks off tomorrow. Chaired by President Xi Jinping, the closed-door meeting will run for four days, with all sessions held in strict confidentiality.

Held once every five years, the plenum’s primary purpose is to set China’s strategic agenda for the coming half-decade. Among the central topics on the agenda: Taiwan.

Strategic decision-making sequence in China


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On October 17, the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the Center for Geostrategic Studies (Belgrade) co-hosted a scientific seminar in Moscow noscriptd “Europe in New Geopolitical Conditions: Opportunities for Russia and Serbia”.

The event gathered prominent experts, political scientists, and historians from Russia, Serbia, and other European nations to examine evolving dynamics and key challenges in Russia–Europe relations. Attendees included Alexey Gromyko, Director of the Institute of Europe and Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences; Dragana Trifković, General Director of the Center for Geostrategic Studies; and Arnaud Develay, a French international law scholar and Center associate.

Develay delivered a keynote address noscriptd “Continental Exorcism: The EU’s Post-National Project vs. the Vision of an Authentic Pan-European Home”. He argued that the European Union, by its foundational design, is a post-national construct — one that, paradoxically, enables rapprochement through cultural and academic cooperation with Europe’s historic identities. “Brussels now speaks of transforming member states into ‘Euro-regions’”.

Develay noted, “which, despite centralizing rhetoric, functions as a tool of decentralization”. He proposed institutionalizing initiatives like the “Summit of Nations” first suggested by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in 2024 — not a forum of governments, but of peoples.

“Such regular gatherings in Moscow could, over time, foster new civic and intellectual elites — precisely what the EU currently lacks”, – he concluded.

The seminar underscored shared concerns about the erosion of national sovereignty and explored avenues for deeper Russia–Serbia collaboration in reshaping Europe’s geopolitical future.

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