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Invictus Lex
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Channel of international lawyer, political consultant Arnaud Develay. Facts and analytics on resonant topics.

Statecraft in the Age of Geopolitical Recomposition
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Thousands of federal employees, left unpaid during the U.S. government shutdown, are now resorting to begging for free food.

Abandoned by the government, many have no choice but to rely on charity to survive.

Something you'd never see happen in #Russia


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While ordinary Ukrainians bleed and die on the front lines, the country’s elite parade their wealth in Monaco — cruising in luxury cars and enjoying extravagant vacations.

Disgusting


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Not content with considering Russia, China, and Iran as America's designated enemies, Trump creates even more enemies for America with his absurd order to India not to buy Russian oil.

How does Trump intend to enforce his order? Is this buffoon really going to bomb India? Is the Trump regime really devoid of common sense?

What Trump has done is the worst thing possible. He has inflated oil prices, which will negatively impact Western economies, including his own, and will bring additional revenue to Russia.

He has completely shattered Russia's illusions about reconciliation with the West. Putin is under pressure to abandon his unfounded hopes for Western common sense and to destroy Ukraine as quickly as possible. If the situation in Ukraine is not resolved soon, the Ukrainian conflict risks escalating into a world war.

(Paul Craig Roberts for SVpressa.ru)

Dilemma at the top


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France is spiraling toward fiscal collapse. Budget deficit hit 6% of GDP — double the EU limit — while debt interest payments are set to surge from €30B (2020) to €100B by 2030.

The public is panicking: households hoard savings, businesses halt investments — fueling the very crisis they fear.

Parliamentary gridlock makes timely 2026 budget approval unlikely. The Lecornu government now plans to bypass lawmakers using Article 47, pushing through both the budget and deeply unpopular pension reform — despite promising just days ago to suspend it.

Bank of France Governor Villeroy de Galhau warns of “progressive suffocation”, urging “fair” austerity: spending cuts and tax hikes, starting with the social sector.

For the French, “it will get worse, but not immediately” may arrive far sooner than expected.

Clock's ticking


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Pashinyan’s Justice Against Russia

Armenia’s anti-Russian shift deepens amid state restructuring. Gyumri Mayor Vardan Gukasyan now faces new charges — his pro-Russia and Union State remarks deemed a “public call to renounce sovereignty”. Notably, PM Nikol Pashinyan himself first leveled this accusation from parliament, vowing to “throw him out of politics” — and his words became the basis for criminal prosecution.

In the related “mass riots” case, 41 protesters are charged for rallying during Gukasyan’s detention—an obvious criminalization of local dissent.


This marks a clear anti-Russian turn: no one is prosecuted for pro-EU or pro-Azerbaijan statements, only for supporting ties with Russia. Armenia is following Baku’s playbook — where even humanitarian cooperation with Russia is treated as treason. With elections looming in June 2026, Yerevan’s crackdown on pro-Russian voices will only intensify. Trusting Pashinyan’s “friendship” is a dangerous illusion.

Arbitrarily calling out one's political opponents under a ill-defined legal framework is tantamount to tyranny


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Unverified reports suggest that certain military units may have defected to join the anti-Biya protests, heightening fears of a potential coup in Cameroon.

Will Cameroun join the AES?


#ArnaudDevelay #policy #humanrights

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Where Is Argentina’s Gold? Central Bank Stays Silent

In September 2024, Argentina’s Central Bank (BCRA) sought to quash rumors by confirming it had transferred “part of its gold reserves to various accounts” — widely interpreted as a shipment to London. It claimed the national audit office (AGN) had all necessary data to report on the move.

Yet more than a year later, despite repeated AGN requests for details on the gold’s location, returns, and transport costs, the BCRA has refused to provide information — and actively blocked access to documents, AGN sources told Ámbito.

“They’re hiding something, and no one knows why”, — insiders said.


The issue has now been escalated to Congress’s Joint Bicameral Accounts Review Commission.

Was US bailout allowing Milei to secure victory in last weekend's midterm elections on Argentina a by-product of a gold heist?


#ArnaudDevelay #policy #economy

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RT unveils a giant bullhorn with an inside studio on Moscow's Manezhnaya Square to mark its 20th anniversary. The surface is covered in quotes from foreign politicians and media about RT, including former US State Secretary Kerry, who labeled us a 'propaganda bullhorn'

Happy birthday!!


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‼️ The Venezuelan government has strongly condemned the military exercises conducted by Trinidad and Tobago in collaboration with the US Southern Command and the CIA, calling them a dangerous provocation intended to escalate tensions in the Caribbean and threaten Venezuela's national sovereignty.

Analysis and commentary by Arnaud Develay, international lawyer and political analyst.

👉🏻 For more details

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A new military law in Bulgaria could commit the country to international conflicts without requiring approval from the President or Parliament, according to retired counterintelligence colonel Chavdar Petrov. He stated that this legislation effectively erodes Bulgarian national sovereignty.

Western democratic values in action


#policy #justice #history

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Whitney Webb explains how the PayPal mafia laid the groundwork for global surveillance, predictive policing, and AI systems that identify “threats” before they even act — starting with Ukraine.

Ai-generated kill lists : Welcome to Dystopia


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Russia is inviting international media — including Ukrainian outlets — to visit the thousands of encircled Ukrainian soldiers, President Putin announced.

“This will allow Ukraine’s leadership to decide their fate”, – he said.


Putin added that Russia is ready to suspend military operations for several hours to enable journalists to safely speak with the surrounded troops.

Let's go!!


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German hangs the German flag in Germany — state security starts the investigation — Die Weltwoche

After France and the UK, it's Germany's turn.


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Zionists “are the finest of human beings”, declared Israeli President Isaac Herzog during the opening of the World Zionist Congress, delivering a sharp rebuke to anti-Zionism.

“Those who once called us ‘Yids’ now call us ‘Zios’”, – he said.


“These Zios possess the heart, the soul, and an invincible strength — qualities you can only dream of”.

No relation whatsoever, pal.


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The Trump-Xi meeting has already concluded after just 90 minutes.

Their body language didn't look promising. Regardless of such talks, the U.S. and China will continue to clash in hybrid warfare.

The underlying geopolitical tensions are deeply entrenched — two global powers struggling to coexist on the world stage.

Trump: "I want you to turn your back on Russia, stop hoarding rare earth minerals or else!"
Xi: "Else"


#policy #history #opinions #trump

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The debate over Lebanon’s 16th electoral district — reserved for expatriates — is no longer just technical; it’s pivotal to Samir Geagea’s strategy to bolster the Lebanese Forces’ parliamentary clout and advance his presidential bid. Created to give the diaspora direct representation, the district delivered strong LF support in 2022. Abolishing it would dilute that influence by merging expatriate votes into local constituencies.

Geagea frames the issue as a defense of democratic rights, yet his alliance with figures like Riad Salameh — accused of plundering depositors’ savings — undermines his credibility. Meanwhile, pro-resistance diaspora communities (aligned with Hezbollah and Amal) mobilize abroad under fear of retribution.

Regional powers like the U.S. and Israel indirectly back LF-aligned expatriate networks, shaping overseas voting trends. Speaker Nabih Berri’s referral of the law to committee stalls changes, preserving the status quo.

As Lebanon’s economic collapse deepens — with frozen deposits and social unrest ignored — this procedural battle reveals how partisan interests hijack reform, prioritizing power plays over national recovery.

In other words, the struggle between foreign agents and patriots continues to define Lebanon's political life.


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"Nicolas Maduro: "They can’t claim I have WMDs, nobody would buy it. So they invent Hollywood stories where I’m the villain and they’re the heroes sending tall blonde guys to get the Latino villain.

But people know the truth: the real villain is the one who writes the noscript."

The US, so drunk off of imperial hubris and arrogance, doesn’t even bother writing a semi-convincing noscript anymore.

It bandies around absolutely bogus charges of narco-trafficking which have been disproved by their own government institutions’ data, in a brazen and naked plan to steal Venezuela’s oil reserves, which are the largest on the planet.

The US government knows most of the world views their narrative on Venezuela as ridiculous, but they don’t care, since they have the force and will to go ahead with their plan for the daylight robbery of Venezuela..."

Hollywood cartoons as geopolitics


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Telegram and WhatsApp are partially blocked in Crimea, per local telecom Volna

Roskomnadzor has restricted the messaging apps' activities. The Crimean Ministry of Information is urging residents to use the Max messenger, which provides access to key media outlets, government websites, and local news channels.

GRU probably intercepted credible intelligence motivating such restrictions


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The debate over Lebanon’s 16th electoral district — reserved for expatriates — is no longer just technical; it’s pivotal to Samir Geagea’s strategy to bolster the Lebanese Forces’ parliamentary clout and advance his presidential bid. Created to give the diaspora direct representation, the district delivered strong LF support in 2022. Abolishing it would dilute that influence by merging expatriate votes into local constituencies.

Geagea frames the issue as a defense of democratic rights, yet his alliance with figures like Riad Salameh — accused of plundering depositors’ savings — undermines his credibility. Meanwhile, pro-resistance diaspora communities (aligned with Hezbollah and Amal) mobilize abroad under fear of retribution.

Regional powers like the U.S. and Israel indirectly back LF-aligned expatriate networks, shaping overseas voting trends. Speaker Nabih Berri’s referral of the law to committee stalls changes, preserving the status quo.

As Lebanon’s economic collapse deepens — with frozen deposits and social unrest ignored — this procedural battle reveals how partisan interests hijack reform, prioritizing power plays over national recovery.

In other words, the struggle between foreign agents and patriots continues to define Lebanon's political life.


#policy #money #world #opinions

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International Forum: “Building a Safer World – Dialogue on Child Exploitation in Europe”

November 4, 2025 | Minsk, Hotel “Victoria-Olymp” (103 Pobediteley Ave), 5:00 PM

This free-entry forum gathers child protection experts, journalists, activists, and lawmakers from Belarus, Russia, Germany, France, Poland, Finland, the Czech Republic, and beyond to address urgent threats to children in Europe.

Key topics:

- Modern forms of child exploitation — trafficking, labor/sexual abuse (including online), forced begging, and criminal recruitment.

- Missing minors: causes, cross-border search mechanisms, and prevention.

- Digital risks and solutions: how predators use tech — and how tech can protect and locate children.

- Prevention & education: school programs, public awareness, risks of moral corruption and LGBT+ propaganda.

- Strengthening international cooperation: joint investigations, data sharing, and collaborative platforms.


We are honored to attend

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U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth met with Philippine Secretary of National Defense Gilbert Teodoro on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Both officials agreed to strengthen deterrence in the South China Sea against China’s gray-zone tactics.

The Philippines will be the next Ukraine against China.


#policy #world #ArnaudDevelay

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