📑 Very important day in Lebanon and Gaza. Updates to be done tonight to cover the whole day.

Thanks for understanding.

📹 In a recap of yesterday's events, the Israeli airstrike at dawn in Baalbek destroyed a 3-story building part of which is used as a local factory for tissue papers.

Civilian property and houses near the area were severely damaged.

🗣️ In response to the attack, Hezbullah carried a rocket barrage towards Nafa' military base in the southern Golan Heights with dozens of rockets.

✈️ It was followed by an attack using suicide drones on an Israeli army staging ground in Metulla.

Vehicles were damaged, and at least two soldiers from the commando units were seriously wounded. Possible deaths.

📹 During the drone attack, the Israeli army scrambled jets and flew at extreme low altitude over south Lebanon in an attempt to intercept the drones.

The attempts failed.

📹 At least two Israeli jets were patrolling the Khiyam plain, at low altitudes and in range of MANPADS.

Flairs for deployed for safety.

📑 But with the failure to intercept the drones and the casualties, the Israeli army carried a very violent wave of airstrikes on Al-Tuffah district.

About 15 airstrikes targeted the hills and valleys of the district, in the vicinity of Aramta and Luwayzeh.

Those valleys and hills sit in strategic areas and possibly hold assets. Different types of smokes were noticed.

📷 An additional attack was carried in Serbeen village and Aita al-Shaab.

No casualties in either.

📹 And to conclude today's events in Lebanon, which witnessed a series of escalations and casualties

Hezbullah released footage of their attack yesterday on the settlement of Qiryat Shmona.

About 40 x 122mm Grad rockets and 21xFalaq-1 heavy rockets were fired in one of the 7 responses to the Israeli murder of a Lebanese family or 4.

Noticeable in this footage is:
- A Falaq launcher this big
- The use of launchers in close distance to the border, in open, and successfully engaging and then saving it from the Israeli attack
- Being able to monitor Qiryat Shmona despite the Israeli destruction of all vantage and border observation points.

⚠️ As for the situation in Gaza, the first step to pave the invasion of Rafah started with the order to evacuate given to the south most part of the province.

The area hosts several hundreds of thousands, and hosts the only official border crossing between Gaza and Egypt.

If the Israeli army takes control of it, they effectively will control all official border crossings.

Control will last until the Israeli army withdraws by the end of this war, or long term resistance if they annex this area.

📑 A White House National Security Council spokesperson tells Israeli journalist Barak Ravid that:

“We continue to believe that a hostage deal is the best way to preserve the lives of the hostages, and avoid an invasion of Rafah, where more than a million people are sheltering. Those talks are ongoing now.”

🚫 However, during the Israeli attacks yesterday on Rafah and the threat of invasion, Hamas announced they halted their participation. Talks have collapsed for now.

The Israeli orders to evacuate serve two very important purposes:
1- A bluff to put pressure on Hamas to accept any deal to "buy time" for itself

2- Satisfy U.S. demands to minimise casualties when an operation takes place there.

Achieving the evacuation with or without an attack now serves a need.

🇺🇲🇮🇱 President Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke on the phone for 30 minutes today, discussing hostage deal negotiations and Israel's preparations for a ground invasion of Rafah.

Biden is seeking to salvage the long-stalled Israel-Hamas hostage deal and avoid a massive Israeli military operation in Rafah, where more than one million Palestinians are taking shelter.

A U.S. official said Biden asked Netanyahu to immediately reopen the Kerem Shalom crossing between Israel and Gaza, which was shut down on Sunday after a Hamas attack that killed four soldiers. The target was an army staging ground.

Update: Possible rationing decision, not a rebuff of Israel

The Axios article doesn’t explicitly state that ammunition is being withheld due to frustration with Israel.

Actually, an Israeli official (cited by the Times of Israel) commented: “Even now, a continued series of defense shipments are being sent from the US to Israel. It’s possible that one shipment or another is delayed, but the flow continues and we’re not aware of a policy decision to stop it.”

Defense analyst Dan Caldwell writes that a “plausible reason” for the delay is that “the ammo is going to Ukraine instead”.

“By prioritizing Ukraine over Israel for the next shipment, the Biden administration kills two birds with one stone: First, it helps to prevent a Ukrainian collapse, [then] it can spin to its base what is really a rationing decision as ‘standing up to Netanyahu’, turning neocon lemons into progressive lemonade”, assesses the ex-COO of PayPal and Yammer founder David Sacks.

🇺🇸 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Israel's War dependent on US Ammunition

🔶️ While Netanyahu's coalition government continues to belittle American aid, a report by the Ministry of Finance reveals the dramatic dependence of the US for the war in Gaza. The 2023 budget set a price tag of NIS 17 billion for the war in the fourth quarter, but the report reveals transactions for NIS 18 billion that were not included in the budget.

🔶️ The fact that most of the engagements that the Ministry of Defense carried out at the outbreak of the war were in the worlds of ammunition, confirms previous reports that the IDF was forced to manage an "arms economy" and limit the air and ground attacks in order to maintain a stock of ammunition both for the continuation of the fighting in Gaza and for a scenario in which a full-scale war breaks out on the northern front. The increased use of ammunition in the wars in Gaza and Ukraine has led the world to an unusual global shortage of ammunition of all types, which makes it difficult for the IDF and the Ministry of Defense to obtain additional stock immediately and raises prices.

https://www.ynet.co.il/economy/article/ryhhuj8zr

🔴 Hamas accepts ‘Qatari-Egyptian ceasefire proposal’

🔴 Al-Jazeera: The proposal includes 3 stages of 42 days:
1. Complete withdrawal of the occupation forces from the Netzarim corridor in the first stage and allowing the free return of the displaced.
2. In the second stage, it is assumed that the Israeli forces will withdraw completely from the Gaza Strip.
3. Agreeing to end the blockade on Gaza in the third stage.

🔴 Hamas official Khalil al-Hayya tells Al-Jazeera:

“The mediators told us that the U.S. President is clearly committed to ensuring the implementation of the agreement.”

“In the first stage, indirect negotiations will take place through Egyptian and Qatari mediation on the prisoner exchange ratios.”

“In its second stage, the proposal includes a direct announcement of the permanent cessation of military and hostile operations.”

🔴 Khalil al-Hayya says, in the first phase, 50 Palestinian prisoners would be released for each female captive held by Hamas.

In the second phase, Hamas would release the male captives for a number of Palestinian prisoners to be negotiated.

🚨 Israeli PM Netanyahu's office says the war cabinet:

“unanimously decided that Israel is continuing with the operation in Rafah to exert military pressure on Hamas in order to advance the release of our hostages and the other goals of the war.”

The statement further says that Israel will send a delegation to continue hostage talks despite that “the Hamas proposal is far from Israel's necessary requirements”.

🚨 The occupation army has started the attack in Rafah. In a statement, it says troops are currently striking and operating against Hamas sites “in a targeted manner” in eastern Rafah.

Earlier today, a threatening letter dated April ⁠24 of U.S. Republican senators addressed to the chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC) was leaked:

“Target Israel and we will target you. [...] You have been warned.”

It also says Xi Jinping is “genocidal”.

Signed by Mitch McConnell, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Tom Cotton etc.

(Zeteo; Al-Jazeera; Times of Israel)