As is well-known, Israel intends to invade Southern Lebanon around August this year (+/- 1 month) in order to take over all territory up to the Litani river and stop Hezbullah's rocket attacks into the North of the country.

This invasion will likely consist of 12 brigades structured in 3 divisions:

146th Division:
- 205th Reserve Armored Brigade*
- Carmeli Reserve Brigade
- 226th Reserve Brigade*
- 228th Reserve Brigade*

36th Armored Division:
- 188th Armored Brigade**
- Golani Brigade**
- Kiryati Reserve Armored Brigade
- Etzioni Reserve Brigade**

98th Division:
- 7th Armored Brigade
- 35th Brigade
- Commando Brigade
- 551st Reserve Brigade**

* = Has completed exercises preparing it for the invasion of Lebanon, this brigade was selected by Command to be specifically saved up for the invasion

** = Has completed exercises preparing it for the invasion of Lebanon

🗞️ As you can see, most of them have already been prepared for the invasion while they were deployed on the northern border, but only 3 of them are currently in position:

- 551st Brigade is under the 146th Division in the Western Galilee
- 36th and 188th Brigades have been taken apart and all their battalions were given to the 3 territorial brigades guarding the Lebanese border.

Total amount of combat soldiers = ~18k, around twice as many as entered Lebanon in 2006.

[Photo of Israeli soldiers in Lebanon in 2006]

🪖War in Lebanon is not currently imminent, because most of the required brigades are elsewhere

- 7th, 35th and Commando Brigades are busy in and around Gaza, and have neither been moved north yet nor been prepared for the invasion.

- Carmeli Brigade is currently in Netzarim, but is expected to move north to replace 551 in the next few days. (Carmeli itself will be replaced by Alexandroni in Netzarim)

- 205, 226, 228, Kiryati and Etzioni aren’t mobilized.

I believe that it‘s not likely Lebanon will be invaded in the next 6 weeks, because that’s the minimum amount of time it will take to move everything north (I think it will be in August).

[Photo from Gaza]

⌛ The IDF has a short time to operate in Lebanon or lose

Once the invasion starts however, in my assessment, the IDF have to complete all objectives within less than 3 months (ideally within 50 days) or they are forced to withdraw.

This is because 60% of the invasion force has to be dismissed and demobilized once 3 months pass since they’re reservists, and it’s not possible to continue without them (the IDF simply don’t have enough regular forces by themselves, and can’t call up endless amounts of reservists to continue on regardless).

In Gaza, reserve brigades failed to stay operational beyond 65 days without rotation.

If the IDF manage to take the Litani line before this happens the war is won.

How does the Israeli army view the future?

36th Division will occupy Southern Lebanon, 162nd Division will occupy Netzarim and Philadelphi, and 98th Division will be used in raids into Gaza for the next 3 years.

🖼️ What exactly will happen and what is the non-delusional reality?

Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of the victorious Hezbullah, said a few years ago the below, foreshadowing:

"Your divisions will be destroyed, your brigades will be destroyed, your battalions will be dispersed, your tanks will be demolished, all this live on TV.

I promise you again, you will watch a live broadcast of the destruction of Israeli tanks, divisions and brigades if they enter southern Lebanon."

📑 Hezbullah released previously a video mocking the exhausted Israeli army and its threats to Lebanon.

The video is noscriptd: “Hello and Welcome”

📷 Earlier, an Israeli attack targeted Aita al-Shaab and Duhayra village in south Lebanon.

🗞️ A clarification by a member of Hezbullah's military media

The Israeli army site that was targeted by the Islamic Resistance is located in the vicinity of the Elkush settlement (according to the resistance statement) and not in Hurfeish.

It is about 900 meters from Elkush (inhabited by Jewish immigrants from Yemen), and about 1,700 meters from Hurfeish (inhabited by Druze Arabs).

🇮🇱 Aharon Barak left his position as ad hoc judge for Israel in the ICJ case, citing personal reasons.

📹 Israeli jets flying over southern Lebanon at low altitudes, causing sonic booms and firing flares.

The booms were heard all the way to Tyre.

📹 Jets where as far as Al-Ghazieh near Sidon.

📹 Hezbullah released footage of its attack on 3 June on an important Israeli army Command & Control vehicle that specializes in warfare communication and control in Adather military base.

After the vehicle was attacked, the cabin that hosts the crew was attacked. In both, an Almas ATGM was used.

No casualties reported in the attack.

📹 Hezbullah released spectacular footage of its successful attack on an Iron Dome missile launcher, destroying it.

The Almas ATGM, a weapon that created an edge in this battle, thanks to the Iranian brothers.

⚠️ An Israeli airstrike is reported between Beit Yahoun and Kawneen.

📹 Another violent attack heard in south Lebanon. It is reported to be on the entrance of Odaiseh village.

Video possibly from the earlier attack

📹 From the attack in Beit Yahoun in south Lebanon.

Secondary explosions and errant rocket fire can be noticed

📹 Additional footage from Beit Yahoun and the massive secondary fire.

⚠️ A new Israeli attack reported in Sidqeen village in south Lebanon.

🪖 The Israeli attacks so far:
- Kuneen
- Odaiseh
- Kuneen (again same location)
- Sidqeen

🌷 Ambulance dispatched to scan the areas in Kuneen and Sidqeen. An ambulance is reported to have been damaged.

🧯Large fire was caused by the Israeli attack on Kuneen, causing smoke to affect nearby villages.

🌷No casualties in the attack on Sidqeen (empty house) and Odaiseh.

📷 Several civilian casualties (injuries) were evacuated as of now from Kuneen village.