קבינט מדיני ביטחוני - מוריה אסרף & דורון קדוש
חזבאללה טען היום שלראשונה מתחילת המלחמה, שיגר טיל שיוט לשטח ישראל ותקף באמצעותו את בסיס חצור של חיל האוויר.
גורמי ביטחון ישראלים מכחישים ואומרים כי לא בוצע שום שיגור של טיל שיוט כזה, ובוודאי שבסיס חצור לא נפגע.
הטענה הזו מצטרפת לעוד שורה ארוכה של טענות של חזבאללה, שהצליח להפיל בשבועות האחרונים מספר כטב״מים של חיל האוויר.
העובדות: אף כטב״ם לא הופל בחודש האחרון ע״י חזבאללה.
גורמי ביטחון ישראלים מכחישים ואומרים כי לא בוצע שום שיגור של טיל שיוט כזה, ובוודאי שבסיס חצור לא נפגע.
הטענה הזו מצטרפת לעוד שורה ארוכה של טענות של חזבאללה, שהצליח להפיל בשבועות האחרונים מספר כטב״מים של חיל האוויר.
העובדות: אף כטב״ם לא הופל בחודש האחרון ע״י חזבאללה.
The situation is becoming extremely pathetic.
I can understand the Israeli army hiding losing a drone, because they can hide the wreckage like they did with the ones they acknowledged the loss of.
But to reach a level that they are claiming Hezbullah didn't fire a cruise missile into Israel? Here is were they should draw a red line because it's becoming unacceptable.
Yes Hezbullah is targeting X bases and not all are impacting because of Israeli air defense, but saying they didn't fire? Come on.
For the drone, Hezbullah shared footage showing the drone being shot down. A video not a photo. For the cruise, the footage is as genuine as it gets.
In Gaza and in Lebanon they lied about every single bulldozer and Tank hit, claiming zero loses. Yet from time to time we see photos of burning bulldozers and tank. Saw at least two confirmed burning bulldozers from Rafah.
Yes not every ATGM or RPG hitting the tank will burn it or destroy it, but it gets ridiculous when they acknowledge zero. Hezbullah has attacked about 40+ or 50 tanks in Lebanon and so far, not a single soldier from the tank brigades have been announced injured or killed.
Spare us the lies.
I can understand the Israeli army hiding losing a drone, because they can hide the wreckage like they did with the ones they acknowledged the loss of.
But to reach a level that they are claiming Hezbullah didn't fire a cruise missile into Israel? Here is were they should draw a red line because it's becoming unacceptable.
Yes Hezbullah is targeting X bases and not all are impacting because of Israeli air defense, but saying they didn't fire? Come on.
For the drone, Hezbullah shared footage showing the drone being shot down. A video not a photo. For the cruise, the footage is as genuine as it gets.
In Gaza and in Lebanon they lied about every single bulldozer and Tank hit, claiming zero loses. Yet from time to time we see photos of burning bulldozers and tank. Saw at least two confirmed burning bulldozers from Rafah.
Yes not every ATGM or RPG hitting the tank will burn it or destroy it, but it gets ridiculous when they acknowledge zero. Hezbullah has attacked about 40+ or 50 tanks in Lebanon and so far, not a single soldier from the tank brigades have been announced injured or killed.
Spare us the lies.
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🇮🇱l🇱🇧 The war didn't end yet, and the Israeli army has already done a documentary to talk about what they describe was the hardest battle in south Lebanon yet
They talk about Aitaroun, when 3 Hezbullah fighters killed 6 Israeli soldiers and injured 14 others.
The battle took about 14 hours, and the Israelis really assumed they are getting kidnapped.
They talk about the chaos, the loss of the command chain, how they cried, and how they are happy to be alive.
Aitaroun - Aynatha, whose heros in this battle have halted the Israeli advance since then in that area
They talk about Aitaroun, when 3 Hezbullah fighters killed 6 Israeli soldiers and injured 14 others.
The battle took about 14 hours, and the Israelis really assumed they are getting kidnapped.
They talk about the chaos, the loss of the command chain, how they cried, and how they are happy to be alive.
Aitaroun - Aynatha, whose heros in this battle have halted the Israeli advance since then in that area
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Lebanese News and Updates
🇮🇱l🇦🇪 An Israeli "civilian" Chabad is missing in the UAE.
Local authorities and the Mossad are investigating, and assume he was either killed or kidnaped.
Local authorities and the Mossad are investigating, and assume he was either killed or kidnaped.
📰 The UAE issued a statement announcing they are aware of the missing "Moldovan" citizen and they are investigating.
The Moldovon is the Israeli soldier Rabbi who went missing in UAE.
*Insert racist Romanian joke here*
The Moldovon is the Israeli soldier Rabbi who went missing in UAE.
*Insert racist Romanian joke here*
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📰 With similar goals but different conditions and tactics, today's Israeli advances are similar to the attempts in 2006
Back then, there were 4 main axis where within two weeks the Israeli army has attempted to advance fast:
1- From Khiyam (ongoing)
2- Wadi al-Hujayr (did not attempt to)
3- Bint Jbeil (halted)
4- Al-Bayada (ongoing)
Today we are almost 2 months into a continuous ground invasion, unlike in 2006 when it was almost only 2 weeks.
Back then, there were 4 main axis where within two weeks the Israeli army has attempted to advance fast:
1- From Khiyam (ongoing)
2- Wadi al-Hujayr (did not attempt to)
3- Bint Jbeil (halted)
4- Al-Bayada (ongoing)
Today we are almost 2 months into a continuous ground invasion, unlike in 2006 when it was almost only 2 weeks.
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Regarding Al-Bayadah, for those claiming the IDF was not there in 2006, kindly check this article from 2013
https://archive.almanar.com.lb/article.php?id=539636
https://archive.almanar.com.lb/article.php?id=539636
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❗️Regarding the issue of evacuating the building that includes (Khalifa Market) towards Khaled Sweets, it turned out that the owner of the building was behind the fake evacuation call, because his building included some displaced families.
He proceeded to spread this false alarm, however the Lebanese army military intelligence arrested him. He will likely be set free in 24 hours.
This is not the first time property owners are faking calls to force people out, even after giving them permission to stay. This is too widespread.
I mean it when I say, the Lebanese Shia community is being fought internally and externally. They want it crushed.
He proceeded to spread this false alarm, however the Lebanese army military intelligence arrested him. He will likely be set free in 24 hours.
This is not the first time property owners are faking calls to force people out, even after giving them permission to stay. This is too widespread.
I mean it when I say, the Lebanese Shia community is being fought internally and externally. They want it crushed.
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Needed to create this timeline for sometime, so here it is.
🇱🇧 What are the events that influenced the current war in Lebanon, and had an impact of Hezbullah's performance and expectations
Incident #1: Loss of Foad Shoqor on 30-July
The murder of Hezbullah's most senior military strategist and commander of its forces was a major blow to Hezbullah's historic leadership and put immense pressure on the other leadership to fill his role fast
Then, Hezbullah was in a dilemma of not wanting to escalate the war, hoping to keep it limited and at the same time retaliate to avenge such an important figure
Foad is like Imad Moghnieh, whose loss echoes in all sectors. Between his murder and the retaliation, one valuable month where the Israeli army prepared for the war while Hezbullah was playing by the deterrence boundaries.
Incident #2: Valley infrastructure in Mid August to Mid September
The wave of attacks that targeted Hezbullah's rocket infrastructure in valleys around south Lebanon.
These attacks were both intelligence based and resorted to "burned land" policy in areas that Hezbullah is suspected to be around.
These attacked destroyed hundreds of Hezbullah's rocket launchers and many weapon storage facilities
These attacks influenced and directly impacted Hezbullah's rocket attack volume. Infrastructure was lost and it kept being lost after each use due to Israeli radars and drones.
Incident #3: The pager sabotage attack on 17-September
The pager sabotage attack resulted in killing and injuring 4,000 of Hezbullah's staff, including hundreds who were critical to many departments from air defense, to artillery, to rockets and missiles, to drones and intelligence gathering.
Although it was supposedly 5% of Hezbullah's total manpower, it is substantially higher if adjusted to those unit's manpower.
Incident #4: Radio attack on 18-September
The radio sabotage attack that killed and injured hundreds of regular Hezbullah fighters and reserves, creating sustainable chaos, especially that it happened just one day after the pager attack and have a sense of collapse.
Incident #5: Assassination of the leadership of Hezbullah's Ridwan on 20-September
This exact assassination was very impactful because it killed the overall commander of the Ridwan force, which isn't a small brigade or elite unit but the bulk of Hezbullah's regular forces and the group's literal tip of the spear
The loss of Ibrahim Akil was only made worse with the loss of the Ridwan's chief of staff and other leadership but also the sector commanders.
The loss of the majority of these sector commanders who were the ones who were going to command the defense and offense again Israel was impactful
For example Newnawah was the commander of Khiyam sector and was martyred. He was the one who was supposed to be leading this battle. His men did well, but things could have been remarkably different if the leadership was intact.
Incident #6: Assassination of Hezbullah's SG on 27-September
The assassination of Sayyed Hassan brought Hezbullah to a total shock that it was literally seen as the end of the world. It was a shock that the group has never ever felt and it froze everyone from the top to the bottom.
It was a very harsh 1-2 weeks. In the attack that killed him, Hezbullah's overall commander of the south Lebanon regional units Abu al-Fadel was also martyred. This has to have also an impact on the management of the war
It's important to note that just 3 days form this event, on 30-September the Israeli ground invasion started.
Sheikh Naim himself says Hezbullah was crippled for 10 days. So imagine the invasion starting and this was Hezbullah's state
Incident #7: The martyrdom of Safieddine on 3-October
Then suddenly, the man who was hoped to lead Hezbullah out of this chaos and become the figure the people needed to lead this resistance was killed in another Israeli assassination
Alongside him, the commander of Hezbullah's intelligence was murdered and 20+ other figures. It was catastrophic because of how important each's role in the war #admin
🇱🇧 What are the events that influenced the current war in Lebanon, and had an impact of Hezbullah's performance and expectations
Incident #1: Loss of Foad Shoqor on 30-July
The murder of Hezbullah's most senior military strategist and commander of its forces was a major blow to Hezbullah's historic leadership and put immense pressure on the other leadership to fill his role fast
Then, Hezbullah was in a dilemma of not wanting to escalate the war, hoping to keep it limited and at the same time retaliate to avenge such an important figure
Foad is like Imad Moghnieh, whose loss echoes in all sectors. Between his murder and the retaliation, one valuable month where the Israeli army prepared for the war while Hezbullah was playing by the deterrence boundaries.
Incident #2: Valley infrastructure in Mid August to Mid September
The wave of attacks that targeted Hezbullah's rocket infrastructure in valleys around south Lebanon.
These attacks were both intelligence based and resorted to "burned land" policy in areas that Hezbullah is suspected to be around.
These attacked destroyed hundreds of Hezbullah's rocket launchers and many weapon storage facilities
These attacks influenced and directly impacted Hezbullah's rocket attack volume. Infrastructure was lost and it kept being lost after each use due to Israeli radars and drones.
Incident #3: The pager sabotage attack on 17-September
The pager sabotage attack resulted in killing and injuring 4,000 of Hezbullah's staff, including hundreds who were critical to many departments from air defense, to artillery, to rockets and missiles, to drones and intelligence gathering.
Although it was supposedly 5% of Hezbullah's total manpower, it is substantially higher if adjusted to those unit's manpower.
Incident #4: Radio attack on 18-September
The radio sabotage attack that killed and injured hundreds of regular Hezbullah fighters and reserves, creating sustainable chaos, especially that it happened just one day after the pager attack and have a sense of collapse.
Incident #5: Assassination of the leadership of Hezbullah's Ridwan on 20-September
This exact assassination was very impactful because it killed the overall commander of the Ridwan force, which isn't a small brigade or elite unit but the bulk of Hezbullah's regular forces and the group's literal tip of the spear
The loss of Ibrahim Akil was only made worse with the loss of the Ridwan's chief of staff and other leadership but also the sector commanders.
The loss of the majority of these sector commanders who were the ones who were going to command the defense and offense again Israel was impactful
For example Newnawah was the commander of Khiyam sector and was martyred. He was the one who was supposed to be leading this battle. His men did well, but things could have been remarkably different if the leadership was intact.
Incident #6: Assassination of Hezbullah's SG on 27-September
The assassination of Sayyed Hassan brought Hezbullah to a total shock that it was literally seen as the end of the world. It was a shock that the group has never ever felt and it froze everyone from the top to the bottom.
It was a very harsh 1-2 weeks. In the attack that killed him, Hezbullah's overall commander of the south Lebanon regional units Abu al-Fadel was also martyred. This has to have also an impact on the management of the war
It's important to note that just 3 days form this event, on 30-September the Israeli ground invasion started.
Sheikh Naim himself says Hezbullah was crippled for 10 days. So imagine the invasion starting and this was Hezbullah's state
Incident #7: The martyrdom of Safieddine on 3-October
Then suddenly, the man who was hoped to lead Hezbullah out of this chaos and become the figure the people needed to lead this resistance was killed in another Israeli assassination
Alongside him, the commander of Hezbullah's intelligence was murdered and 20+ other figures. It was catastrophic because of how important each's role in the war #admin
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Incident #8: A collection of incident during the events above
During all the above, Israel murdered many of Hezbullah's senior officials including the group's chief of staff for manpower, the group's missile commander, the group's logistic commander and so on.
Hezbullah was almost leaderless and the war was ongoing in a unprecedented matter that was not calculated ever.
And during this all, the massive 1,600 airstrikes that targeted all locations the Israeli army gathered information about before the war about Hezbullah's bases in towns, including rockets and ballistic missiles.
There were several confirmed attacks on infrastructure.
Before incident#1, Israel killed in south Lebanon Hezbullah's Nasr and Aziz regional commanders and many lower level field commanders who have influence on the battlefield.
📍Now, we are here, so observe well.
Hezbullah was tangled in this war in the worst case scenario that for anyone on earth through history would consider it a doomsday scenario.
Breached, leaderless, decapitated, sabotaged, and in chaos.
Yet, look how brave Hezbullah was and how these events didn't overwhelm it enough to make it surrender. Didn't let them defect and run away. Didn't accept the white flag.
Hezbullah did everything humanly possible to organize the ranks again, and defended until death every border town they could manage and never ran away.
No mass surrenders in any village. No surrender in any actually. Those honorable fought until they can no longer because their bodies gave up through death.
They fought in Aita, Aitatroun, Blida, Khiyam and everywhere. And they continue to fight until they can secure a safe and correct exit from this war
This was will become harsher, Israel will dig deeper but at the end they will be forced to retreat and forced to accept they will be defeated.
So have faith in them, don't ridicule their efforts, understand these hardships that would have been enough to topple great empires and pray for them.
Play your part as a civilian to help your family and friends stay patient in displacement and don't be selfish. If you can please help those in need and there are many in need.
These men, these heros, these angels, are doing their best. God will award them and us. #admin
During all the above, Israel murdered many of Hezbullah's senior officials including the group's chief of staff for manpower, the group's missile commander, the group's logistic commander and so on.
Hezbullah was almost leaderless and the war was ongoing in a unprecedented matter that was not calculated ever.
And during this all, the massive 1,600 airstrikes that targeted all locations the Israeli army gathered information about before the war about Hezbullah's bases in towns, including rockets and ballistic missiles.
There were several confirmed attacks on infrastructure.
Before incident#1, Israel killed in south Lebanon Hezbullah's Nasr and Aziz regional commanders and many lower level field commanders who have influence on the battlefield.
📍Now, we are here, so observe well.
Hezbullah was tangled in this war in the worst case scenario that for anyone on earth through history would consider it a doomsday scenario.
Breached, leaderless, decapitated, sabotaged, and in chaos.
Yet, look how brave Hezbullah was and how these events didn't overwhelm it enough to make it surrender. Didn't let them defect and run away. Didn't accept the white flag.
Hezbullah did everything humanly possible to organize the ranks again, and defended until death every border town they could manage and never ran away.
No mass surrenders in any village. No surrender in any actually. Those honorable fought until they can no longer because their bodies gave up through death.
They fought in Aita, Aitatroun, Blida, Khiyam and everywhere. And they continue to fight until they can secure a safe and correct exit from this war
This was will become harsher, Israel will dig deeper but at the end they will be forced to retreat and forced to accept they will be defeated.
So have faith in them, don't ridicule their efforts, understand these hardships that would have been enough to topple great empires and pray for them.
Play your part as a civilian to help your family and friends stay patient in displacement and don't be selfish. If you can please help those in need and there are many in need.
These men, these heros, these angels, are doing their best. God will award them and us. #admin
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🇱🇧 About the bet of some Lebanese political parties on the demise of the Hezbullah, their shock is the moment of realization that the Americans are negotiating with the party.
And about the lie "If the Hezbullah had accepted the offer, the war would not have happened": Hezbullah already agreed in September to the American-French initiative, but the Israelis rejected it and expanded the war and killed Sayyed Hassan.
And about the lie "If the Hezbullah had accepted the offer, the war would not have happened": Hezbullah already agreed in September to the American-French initiative, but the Israelis rejected it and expanded the war and killed Sayyed Hassan.
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One of the first times I got to genuinely smile in these past weeks is when I saw the photo of martyr Adnan, a personal mentor of sort to me who rose to the heavens in 2017 fighting ISIS.
I'm sorry I couldn't remember your anniversary but few days late.
It's remarkable when a man whose age ended younger than you, and forever will be younger, feela like an elder whose words and actions shaped part of your life and your faith.
Only writing this because tonight I saw by mistake the photo of someone I met in this life, son of a great mentor and a father-figure for me, who was martyred a few days ago.
These days are like a chase, scanning with your eyes all these photos trying to check if there is someone you know, hoping you do not.
Although, their smiles and their lives, will always light ours, and remind us how better they were than us. How they won and we lost, and how we failed and they triumphed.
I'm sorry I couldn't remember your anniversary but few days late.
It's remarkable when a man whose age ended younger than you, and forever will be younger, feela like an elder whose words and actions shaped part of your life and your faith.
Only writing this because tonight I saw by mistake the photo of someone I met in this life, son of a great mentor and a father-figure for me, who was martyred a few days ago.
These days are like a chase, scanning with your eyes all these photos trying to check if there is someone you know, hoping you do not.
Although, their smiles and their lives, will always light ours, and remind us how better they were than us. How they won and we lost, and how we failed and they triumphed.
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⭕️ Throughout this morning and evening, Hezbullah fired multiple times towards Tel Aviv and the northern settlements.
Up to 120 rockets were fired, including several ballistic missiles, in the highest toll in many days.
Damages were confirmed from Metulla to Tel Aviv.
Hezbullah also launched a drone toward Ashdod, however unclear if it reach its target
Up to 120 rockets were fired, including several ballistic missiles, in the highest toll in many days.
Damages were confirmed from Metulla to Tel Aviv.
Hezbullah also launched a drone toward Ashdod, however unclear if it reach its target
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📹 Somewhere in northern Israel
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