🇱🇧 The secretary-general of Hezbullah Sheikh Naim Qassem is expected to give a speech tonight at 6.30 pm

This will be his first speech after the ceasefire, in a very critical and sensitive situation in Lebanon and Syria.

Hezbullah under his leadership is going to face tremendous obstacles and hardships, considering the fragile Israeli ceasefire, the sudden collapse in Syria, and the dire situation in Gaza. Situation will only be worse once Trump focuses on Iran, and encourage Israeli action.

All these hardships, with an ever more hawkish Lebanese political parties who are trying to act as if Hezbullah is now a prey to feed on.

Situation definitely feels like walls have collapsed all around. We'll see in a few months and years.

A rough translation of this video by Hajj Abdul Qader:

The situation we are going into, is a grand change in this area [middle east]. Not in a year or two years, can the U.S or Israel generate a grand image of victory or conclude how this area will look after

The whole middle east is now part of an ongoing labor, there is something being formulated and shaped. You cannot just get to know what the outcome of this child [figuratively] will be

Its not like a book that you can see what's happening and conclude, because the situation is still being formulated

And as this is being formulated, and because Hezbullah is part of what's in labor, we either allow history [events] to crush us, and this inshallah won't happen, or we get damned and replaced by another nation [as the Quran promises to those who fail]...

...or we standup to the responsibility and change history with these forces. However we have to read the threat accurately.

I cannot educate the fighter that the Israeli army is weak and destined to lose...so when 50-60 airstrikes happen the fighter will be shaken and assume we lied to him.. nor can we strike him with fear with inaccurate representation. This mididle ground is what we should follow and then prepare for the worst case scenario

However we are confident and at ease, because this is God's promise to us [to triumph the believers]"

❗️ Israeli forces in Lebanon are advancing to Bani Hayyan town, a village they couldn't reach in the ground invasion before the ceasefire. They didn't attempt to either.

بالفيديو | كلمة سماحة الامين العام لحزب الله الشيخ نعيم قاسم (حفظه الله)

وَمَا مُحَمَّدٌ إِلَّا رَسُولٌ قَدْ خَلَتْ مِنْ قَبْلِهِ الرُّسُلُ أَفَإِنْ مَاتَ أَوْ قُتِلَ انْقَلَبْتُمْ عَلَى أَعْقَابِكُمْ وَمَنْ يَنْقَلِبْ عَلَى عَقِبَيْهِ فَلَنْ يَضُرَّ اللَّهَ شَيْئًا وَسَيَجْزِي اللَّهُ الشَّاكِرِينَ ۝ وَمَا كَانَ لِنَفْسٍ أَنْ تَمُوتَ إِلَّا بِإِذْنِ اللَّهِ كِتَابًا مُؤَجَّلًا وَمَنْ يُرِدْ ثَوَابَ الدُّنْيَا نُؤْتِهِ مِنْهَا وَمَنْ يُرِدْ ثَوَابَ الْآخِرَةِ نُؤْتِهِ مِنْهَا وَسَنَجْزِي الشَّاكِرِينَ ۝ وَكَأَيِّنْ مِنْ نَبِيٍّ قَاتَلَ مَعَهُ رِبِّيُّونَ كَثِيرٌ فَمَا وَهَنُوا لِمَا أَصَابَهُمْ فِي سَبِيلِ اللَّهِ وَمَا ضَعُفُوا وَمَا اسْتَكَانُوا وَاللَّهُ يُحِبُّ الصَّابِرِينَ ۝ وَمَا كَانَ قَوْلَهُمْ إِلَّا أَنْ قَالُوا رَبَّنَا اغْفِرْ لَنَا ذُنُوبَنَا وَإِسْرَافَنَا فِي أَمْرِنَا وَثَبِّتْ أَقْدَامَنَا وَانْصُرْنَا عَلَى الْقَوْمِ الْكَافِرِينَ ۝ فَآتَاهُمُ اللَّهُ ثَوَابَ الدُّنْيَا وَحُسْنَ ثَوَابِ الْآخِرَةِ وَاللَّهُ يُحِبُّ الْمُحْسِنِينَ

❗️The Israeli Prime Minister will hold a discussion with the heads of the security establishment this evening, Friday, about the Syrian arena

This is the night of the Shabath, very rare to hold a discussion then

وَمَا مُحَمَّدٌ إِلَّا رَسُولٌ قَدْ خَلَتْ مِنْ قَبْلِهِ الرُّسُلُ أَفَإِنْ مَاتَ أَوْ قُتِلَ انْقَلَبْتُمْ عَلَى أَعْقَابِكُمْ وَمَنْ يَنْقَلِبْ عَلَى عَقِبَيْهِ فَلَنْ يَضُرَّ اللَّهَ شَيْئًا وَسَيَجْزِي اللَّهُ الشَّاكِرِينَ ۝ وَمَا كَانَ لِنَفْسٍ أَنْ تَمُوتَ إِلَّا بِإِذْنِ اللَّهِ كِتَابًا مُؤَجَّلًا وَمَنْ يُرِدْ ثَوَابَ الدُّنْيَا نُؤْتِهِ مِنْهَا وَمَنْ يُرِدْ ثَوَابَ الْآخِرَةِ نُؤْتِهِ مِنْهَا وَسَنَجْزِي الشَّاكِرِينَ ۝ وَكَأَيِّنْ مِنْ نَبِيٍّ قَاتَلَ مَعَهُ رِبِّيُّونَ كَثِيرٌ فَمَا وَهَنُوا لِمَا أَصَابَهُمْ فِي سَبِيلِ اللَّهِ وَمَا ضَعُفُوا وَمَا اسْتَكَانُوا وَاللَّهُ يُحِبُّ الصَّابِرِينَ ۝ وَمَا كَانَ قَوْلَهُمْ إِلَّا أَنْ قَالُوا رَبَّنَا اغْفِرْ لَنَا ذُنُوبَنَا وَإِسْرَافَنَا فِي أَمْرِنَا وَثَبِّتْ أَقْدَامَنَا وَانْصُرْنَا عَلَى الْقَوْمِ الْكَافِرِينَ ۝ فَآتَاهُمُ اللَّهُ ثَوَابَ الدُّنْيَا وَحُسْنَ ثَوَابِ الْآخِرَةِ وَاللَّهُ يُحِبُّ الْمُحْسِنِينَ

I can sense well some of the general atmosphere that is around the new leadership after Sayyed Hassan, and I know well it isn't from ill intent but rather people got attached to a naturally charismatic leader who was able to find his way to the hearts and minds and was leading at a time where the success was more evident and clear to see and understand.

However for those, if you truly ever loved Sayyed Hassan, and believed what he stood for and presented, you would know that support for Sheikh Naim is critical and important. He now carries the burdens of Sayed Hassan, and that's a very big chair to fit in and Sheikh Naim ascended to such a leadership role that he never wanted nor was her ever meant to have.

But today, he is the best fit with the knowledge and ability and skills. He's a great man. He needs time to adjust being the leader and able to communicate his message and he has a very very hard task of navigating the party after the war.

I found his speech on-point, smart, and careful. Sheikh Naim used to be person who handled Hezbullah's politics and elections, while Sayyed Hassan led the miliary and outlined the political goals.

The fact that he delayed the speech and waited to see how people themselves reacted to it, showcases that he's willing to read the atmosphere and act based on it and not force a rhetoric that the people don't believe in and sell lies.

As for him declaring victory, like we all did, he was the clearest on why it was. He said it plainly: Israel had the goal to end us or weaken up beyond being able to ever regenerate. They failed and because they failed we won.

Then he called it a victory more grand than 2006, and he is correct. Because in 2006 the IDF was weaker, hesitant, and Hezbullah's leadership was intact and the casualties within its ranks very low. This was was much longer and way shaky. There were points of failure.

And because, and I genuinely hope Hezbullah is reading the situation like this and not letting ego blind them, they know well that this victory through survival was very very very bitter and the way the war stopped stripped then of both leverage and enforced on them new hardships they have to navigate.

For that he avoided threatening the Israeli army or mentioning the violations, because now a ceasefire is needed to stop the bleeding in Hezbullah's ranks to be able to grow again and ensure the core is able to regenerate. 60 days will pass and if the ceasefire lasts, the freedom to aggress will dwindle.

He also stressed about unity and cooperation in Lebanon between parties because he knew that what Israel failed to do, can be achieved if Lebanon falls into strife or internal conflict.

He thanked those who helped, and abstained from making this victory for all, because he knew many wanted Hezbullah to end once and for all. It's a bitter victory.

Finally, a worrying sign for me was his talk about rebuilding, because it showcased a possible cry/call for nations to help support. Maybe he didn't elaborate more so it wasn't clear but inshallah well know soon.

For me, believe it for it, the survival of Iran is more important than any retaliation against Israel, because Iran is the root that if withered, will weaken all. Iran can help but Iran has its limitations and ability and economic burdens.

Well see inshallah.

For you, people, understand that we are at one of the most critical phases in our lives, a situation as stressing as 2005, or 2006, or 2011-2013 and you will play a role by being patient and understanding and willing to sacrifice some luxuries to help safeguard this nation. Or else, everything will be lost or weakened for long.

Our enemies are many, some strong, some weak, some intact but that's life when you choice to have a conscious and obey God's laws and abide by his statements #admin

Adding to this,

Hezbullah's military footprint will be reduced a lot to the public and this will be great if it happens.

If this ceasefire holds and the Israeli army abstains from attacking anytime, there will be many years before a new war. Has to be a defensive one exclusively also, as non-state actors have reached a peak in ability vs modern armies with capable air force.

🇱🇧l🇮🇷 The Iranian red crescent in south Lebanon

لبيك

🇮🇱l🇱🇧 This evening, the Israeli army carried two drones strikes in Wata al-Khiyam area, supposedly a location long under their control. Target us unknown.

Israeli soldiers also fired form Maroun al-Ras towards Bint Jbeil

❗️ Israeli violations recorded so far are 51. Hezbullah's violations: 0

This excludes tonight's flares dropped over Hamamis area and the drone flights over Al-Zahrani district.

And step after step, the IDF is re-establishing the legitimacy of the resistance by weakening the Lebanese state and the international laws and order.

📰 During the night and up to this evening, there were many Israeli ceasefire violations and aggression

Some were reported to the media:
- Gunfire towards Yaroun town
- Possible airstrike/drone strike near Hula
- Jet activity over Akkar, Duneyeh, and Hermel
- Drone strike on a parked vehicle in Majdal Zoun (civilians were lightly injured)
- Artillery and gunfire attacks on Khiyam town

🇸🇾 Additionally in an official statement, they attacked somewhere between Lebanon and Syria that they claim was a smuggling attempt of weapons. There is no proof other then their claims that there are weapons.

🇱🇧l🇸🇾 As much as the situation is bad in Syria, and the possible imminent collapse of the whole Aleppo province, there will be unlikely any ability for Hezbullah to offer support or expertise.

Situation in Lebanon is fragile and nothing to spare.

Not only that, the Israeli army will actively hunt and attack any Hezbullah activity in Syria, unlike in the period of 2013-2017 and what followed.

🇵🇸 When I say Hezbullah won't, not because it's a matter of decision but because its a matter of ability.

Hezbullah aside, the support the Syrian government received from allies back after 2012-2013 was after the army was able with withstand and there being a popular local support for it.

And since the Syrian rebels and foreign terrorists have tremendously learned, adapted, organized and filled gaps, they were able to triumph in this battle

However it is indeed shocking that there was no meaningful defense and disastrous retreats. Yes, Syria was under a ceasefire in Astana and so on, stipulated no such events, but who in the right might trusts them.

Not defending now while the terrorists and rebels are overstretched and in the open, will be much more costly later if the army can re-group and counter attack. Time is ticking.

Finally, as bad as the situation is, as long as it doesn't spread to Hama and Daraa we are still in a place where we can say things might be lost but not everything will collapse. Else, the situation will be so loud, because of the sound of our fall...all our fall.

🇸🇾 The events in Syria highlight very clearly why they couldn't afford any engagement with the Israeli army and retaliation to the former's aggression.

In a statement now, the Syrian army announced they are fighting over a 100km frontline and have so far lost tens of martyrs and injured.

And they are retreating (re-grouping) to save the lives of both soldiers and civilians.

📸 A rough map of the situation in Syria, where small progress in some cities can drastically change the area of control over the vast empty lands.

Everything between red and the yellow line was lost in the past 3-days. It's several hundred km2

Locals in Nubl and Zahraa have already been evacuated and SDF has expanded its control to Aleppo airport and trying to connect with other Kurdish areas to the north.

Hama is down south, hopefully we never have to hear about it in the news. Syria is too big yet too small.

(I will try to limit my coverage about Syria, because those are days I don't want to remember)

❗️In Lebanon, Israeli tanks and bulldozers continue to enroach on area they failed to enter before, now moving more freely in Aitaroun town's neighborhoods.

A family is there and was trapped by the Israeli forces. So far, the Lebanese army has not issued any statement.

🇱🇧l🇮🇱 The Israeli drone strike this morning in Majdal Zoun injured 3, including a 7-y/o child.

The Israeli army didn't issue a statement about this incident, but they attacked on "suspicion of Hezbullah violating the ceasefire"

We all know Hezbullah doesn't recruit 7 y/o