However the most important thing is the type of the IDF response. Hitting empty border posts is unlikely now, and this is obvious due to the flight patterns of their airforce. But, any attack on Hezbullah personnel or Hezbullah HQs or warehouses will further escalate things. 3/

The purpose of this deterrence is to deter Israel from attacking any position in Lebanon. And this has been the case since 2006 but the last response to attack some posts for an NGO affiliated to Hezbullah sends Hezbullah a different message. 4/

According to my observation, Hezbullah will keep attacking till an IDF soldier is killed or critically injuried. IDF will moderately attack empty posts of the NGO, until Hezbullah manages to kill or injure a soldier

Then it will attempt to kill the cell and strike a local HQ. 5/

This attack, whether IDF kills any Hezbullah or not, Hezbullah will not accept any material damage on its side so a limited strike back will happen. Where and how? Well the IDF border posts are perfect targets for mortars and 107mm. 6/

Will this escalate to a war? No because schools in Israel started. Simple as that. The Israeli leadership can't disrupt the civilian life now and can't handle hundreds of thousands of IDPs during COVID-19.

if no schools and no COVID-19, it was likely yes. END

President Aoun was briefed by the Minister of Energy, the German ambassador, and a delegation from the Siemens company of the company's decision to assist Lebanon in improving the capacity of the Zahrani and Deir Ammar factories. https://t.co/w7Pr9aWIdY

The head of the Hamas political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, and his accompanying delegation arrive to meet with the Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri.

His meeting schedule is unknown. https://t.co/W5CBTE9szi

BREAKING: After a formal request by the UAE the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia announced today it will allow from now on all flight from the UAE to Israel and back to use Saudi airspace.

(Source: @BarakRavid) https://t.co/vkVMbNjBvr

This serves KSA no benefits and helps Israel only

However, this is not the first time.

KSA earlier allowed direct flights between India and Israel over its airspace. KSA is just one step away from normalizing with Israel openly, and it's the death of the old guard King Salman. https://t.co/TCDvJlixo5

This is his first visit to Lebanon in 27 years.

Will translate this fully about yesterday's meeting with Macron: https://t.co/zQePu81eFK

Kataeb party leader asked Macron: "What reforms can be accomplished if there is an armed group different than the Lebanese army in Lebanon?"

So Macron stressed that the priorities are not to address the weapons now nor early elections and nor changing the regime. 1/

Macron added that they also are against the weapons, but the priorities are for reform that can be done in a timely manner [unlike the subject of Hezbullah weapons that needs time and isn't connected to the reforms that Lebanon's economy needs]. 2/

He then adds that he wants to do something beneficial and doesn't want them to interfere in different things now, and if not you'll [Kataeb and Lebanese Forces] be dragging the country to destruction. 3/

Macron then asked the head of the Kataeb party Samy: "Why are you insisting on early elections, how many new seats will you get? Was I that elected Hezbullah?" [Kataeb party was defeated in a humiliating manner in the last elections] 4/