#admin long thread. Worth reading

There was a very important point mentioned yesterday in the speech of Sheikh Naim Qassem that highlighted clearly what we have seen in the past two months, that Hezbullah has stopped at the commands of its leadership any armed action that is categorized as offensive and has shifted to a new temporarily form that is much needed in this phase of history (short term) that will be capable of dealing with a tide that it cannot control due to the results of the war in terms of how it affected them and the change in the Middle East that took place overnight and placed Hezbollah as a loner which no wall to lay its back on. He said "at this time, it is the responsibility of the state"

Move forward and your loss might be irreversible, move back, and you will fall into a ditch as deep as time has existed. This dilemma has been hinted in the first speeches of Qassem, where he said that resistance has many forms, and that it is the leadership that defines what form is suitable. These words are not empty, but highlight a necessity to adapt because of the lack of popular support facing wars when the majority has either decided to surrender, act as if not concerned, or decided to reconcile with the US and Israel.

The matter here is not that Hezbollah has abandoned armed resistance, not at all. It is simply, that under current circumstances in Lebanon, the fall of Bashar's Syria and the ever growing anger and criminal actions by the majority with Lebanese, your hands are tied and in your hand is not the golden sword you had once. You hold a sword of steel in front of furnace and this furnace is operated by your enemy. Gold can melt, but you get my point.

I do believe, had the general Sunni Muslim atmosphere in the Arab world been better towards Palestine and not limited to submission and TikTok videos, the heavy burden Hezbollah is feeling in Lebanon could have been eased because they would have found nations that are willing to voice support to them in order to remedy the injuries and then help them in the post-war recovery in terms of aid for the people, rebuilding, etc. However unfortunately, Sunnis have always been this weak despite being in great masses that if each carried a bucket of water they could have drowned Israel. They are useless masses and the slaves of their kings and leaders, no matter how corrupt. I'm not sectarian and my family is mixed with Sunnis, however I do not expect from someone who say "R.A killed R.A and both are in heaven" to be a person that can stand-up at the right time for the right thing.

The issue today, that the 2024 war is not like the 2006, except in one point only. Before i mention that, do not believe anyone that have told you that they supported Hezbollah in 2006 yet they did not in 2023-2024. Those who supported them never flipped sides, unless when they were corrupted by ego, money, or hate.

For this war, that was inevitable but unfrankly did not go as expected, I have done many threads that I'm satisfied with in terms of knowledge to people and have tackled the causes of the war, the results, the ceasefire, and the conditions that the war was fought under. You can find them under #admin. They are really helpful.

I sometimes think, how do I know that I am not wrong in what i believe in and did not fall into the same delusion that others did. Its not easy to answer but i think asking this question is a good indicator and that my conscious is clear about good and evil, and I'm able to know when bad is done regardless if its from the people I support or no.

The purpose of this is post is to tackle two topics mainly: What are the challenges facing Hezbollah today and in the future, and how do I assume that Hezbollah will act today and in the future. This won't be a professionally written article because I dont have the time, but it will be satisfactory. My purpose of writing is because of my need to put my thoughts in words to deeper my understanding in what i believe in, and in the hope that at least one person will benefit from them in his life.

And that alone, is an achievement. I say so because I feel useless in what i have to contribute in life, and something is missing in me that i cannot fulfill and I don't know if i ever will, so these explanations are how i can do my part for now.

Back to our point about the only similarly that exists between the two wars, is its continuation after it through Lebanese. If you remember, after 2006 Hezbullah faced two harsh years where clashes took place in Beirut and then 7-May incident in 2008 when the Lebanese government decided to confiscate Hezbullah's landline system. Hezbullah is always blamed for this, an "internal war" yet everyone forget that the Druze leader Walid Joumblat confessed it was his doing and that he was asked and abetted by the USA itself. Hezbullah reacted but did not initiate.

However even after 7-May, the Lebanese security forces continued to tighten the situation against them and it reached a level when the EU-trained and Sunni led information branch would hack into Hezbullah and there was a real behind the scenes information war between them. The similaries today are beyond doubtable and we saw the first signs with how the Lebanese army leaked his entrance to a strategic Hezbullah base and how they confronted and attached a protest Hezbullah called for and gassed them during a speech by their MPs. There is will again to use the state against Hezbullah.

The situation is harsher now, because not because Hezbullah is in a weaker point from a military perspective, but because Syria has collapsed and Iran is not as rich as it was in 2006. Additionally, there is less Arab and Gulf incentives to help in rebuilding. Hezbullah cannot afford it, Iran cannot afford enough or has the ability to send enough funds, and the Arabs are not willing to help unless Hezbullah submits and dis-arms. So not only now is Hezbullah surrounded by a non-friendly regime in Syria and an Israel that is at the height of its power and foreign support, Hezbullah is surrounded by a Lebanese state that is not willing to cooperate and protect it and is trying to blackmail it to rebuild people's homes.

Do you know that the blackmailing and pressure being put on Hezbullah is not only by pressuring its people who lost their homes, but through eyes. Yes, literal eye cornea's have been banned from being exported to Lebanon for weeks and months after the pager attack in September? They made sure that those who lost their eyes and had a chance of recovery did not get it! Do you understand how cynical and evil and very very determined will to harm this community has reach?

So the present of Hezbullah is very complicated because the challanges have all piled up, and the pressure had honestly made Sheikh Qassem grow in these two months more than 10 years. It shows on his face, and have noticed the Sujod mark on his head. He is praying alot for God to support him in his duty because the challanges are very hard. I'd almost say, what Sheikh Naim has faced and will face, is almost harsher than what Sayyed Hassan has faced in decades.

The elements of power, support, money, and all have been largely been compromised and Sheikh Naim has the duty to rebuild all with a very far Iran, a lost Syria, and a hostile environment with an Israeli occupation and loss of Lebanese state support through the ministerial statement. Sheikh Naim has to rebuild Hezbullah's military weapons, liberate the 5 hills, rebuild Hezbullah's leadership, rebuild Hezbullah's ground forces and units, find the spies inside Hezbullah, find the technical breaches in Hezbullah, and navigate the hostile internal politics in Lebanon. People do not understand how hard it is to do this.

That, and Israel is getting the tech it needs, the money, the weapons, the aid, etc etc. The balance of power was bad back then? It will only ever grow. At the end of the day, non-state actors were never destined to defeat states, but to make the states pay a price to back off and compromise. Palestine will not be liberated unless Arab states join the war, and commit.

All Hamas and Hezbullah will ever do is ensure that the Palestinian state is not lost, and it ist here duty to continue on this path because betraying this path is not betraying a land, but betraying righteousness and is a reason for humiliation on earth and then punishment by God in the hereafter.

It is clear enough for all, how complicated it will be to manage the above, and how hard it will be to actually execute. To rebuild you need training camps that are compromised to the IDF who is attacking even in Beqaa. How can you send 40-60 teens and men there to train. Building weapons need smuggling that is lost because Syria is lost, and manufacturing is going to be complicated because not only is machinery and dual use material not easy to import and is mostly banned by Lebanon long ago, you need infrastructure that is prone to being attached by the IDF once exposed.

This is why, the loss of deterrence after this war that was fortified by the weak Lebanese state's stance on the thousands of Israeli violations has compromised the post-war efforts to rebuild and weakened hezbullah's ability to navigate the 1701. As you can see now, the challenges are great, and as we have noticed so far, President Aoun and Nawaf Salam are working to appease the West and namely the U.S by building on the loss of deterrence by Hezbullah and its compromise in Lebanon.

This internal compromise was aggravated by the loss of support from the Lebanese Free Patriotic Movement that refused to cooperate and has been leaning closer to the US despite preserving a national sovereign stance. Nabih Berrir's loyalty the Shia has preserved the unity of Amal and Hezbullah, but the Shia alone are not able to protect themselves and the resistance because their numbers do not translate to state power. Being at 33-40% of Lebanon, Shia do not get any major leadership role in the state that can challenge a President or a PM. They neither get the president seat, or Minister of Defense, or interior ministry, or Central Bank governor, or army commander, etc etc. You get the point here.

This is important because for long, Hezbullah was able to navigate being a resistance without causing repercussions on the Lebanese state. Hezbullah will carry the burden alongside the Shia community that has carried immense burdens, while the Lebanese state will stay intact. No U.S sanctions, EU financial aid, no Arab boycotts, etc. This allowed both to have separates path that do not cross or clash. They have made this possible through all EU and US adminstrations, even Trump's first term and made it work. Yet Aoun and Nawaf are more enthusiastic about the anti-Hezbullah rhetoric that they are willing to take steps no president or PM before them did.

I dont know where this confidence is from, but Nawaf was a pro 14-March party (google it) advocate and Aoun betrayed his leader Michel Aoun and is from the Army. Army officers are mostly arrogant, although they have no real achievements for an army, it is a trait they have and an ego. I come from a family with many Lebanese soldiers and officers, and I can tell you, its a prestige. But also, these soldiers and officers are not always pro the polticis of the leadership and anti_Hezbullah. On the contrary, but at the end of the day this is a job and has its privileges. No soldier or officer is there to defend his country or die for it. They are there for a payroll, health insurance, and pension. Officers are there for the prestige, drivers, housing, perks, and fat pension.


So to conclude this part, we can say that Aoun and Nawaf are not bluffing this anti-Hezbullah rhetoric to 18-Feb to appease the US and Israel so they can withdraw and then everything is back to normal. It is clear they have some sort of personal goals to achieve a legacy and this is going to be at the expense of the Lebanese resistance. Aoun is here for 6 years, but Nawaf is here only Temp until the elections in 2026. He is unlikely to stay the PM because Hariri is back and will secure a decent support that will make him the #1 favorable PM.

Hariri does not mind Aoun, but it is unclear how Hariri is going to treat Hezbullah. Funny that, despite all, Hezbullah still have their hand extended to them, hoping they cooperate for the better good for all. And I still believe that Aoun and Nawaf allowed Hezbullah to join the government as a trap to gain legitimacy to the actions that they will take. Hezbullah and Amal dont have the minister majotiry to stop anything, and their presence there will give legitimacy to any gov decision.

So far, i cannot asses that the gov and president will do. But how they enforce their anti-hezb policy and the disarming of "all non-state actors" will be what will shape out future. Will they put the state's resource to spy on Hezbullah, raid their weapons manuf sites and depos, arrest their trainers in camps, etc etc. The army and other security forces have good intel on Hezbullah, training camps are known, and routes are known. You get the point.

Btw do you know, that part of the intelligence the Lebanese state has gathered on Hezbullah has been fed to the Israeli intelligence machine unknowingly and has had a toll on Hezbullah during the war?

Honestly all i want now to go to my village, look at this damn mountain and enjoy the scenery while knowing we are not at risk. But this world is evil, and will always be, and there is not going to be any rest until we die. We the normal people wont rest, so imagine those who will be tasked with rebuilding our resistance and protecting out existence.

No need to elaborate here about the hate the many Lebanese have harbored for the Shia and the lies they made and believed. They have blurred the lines between political difference and enemy-hood. They see us as aliens who they want crushed and killed, yet we see them as political foes who have been misguided by hate.

On the other side, let's talk about the Israeli challenge. The loss of deterrence that we spoke of had many reasons but wont discuss now, but in simple words that i once used is that because the victory in this war was survival the deterrence was not one because this victory was a matter of life and death. There as no leverage in it, the Israeli accomplished historical goals, and you only won your survival against all odds. This victory is shy, and one that does not carry enough momentum. This was translated in the weak implementation of the clear ceasefire deal that the IDF violated non-stop without repercussions. Although it was clear, the U.S favoring of Israel and the lack of Lebanese army's will in light of the lack of the political echelon's courage has had its toll.

Do you know that the number of houses demolished during the ceasefire is in the thousands or tens of thousands? That cost is on who to blame? The IDF demolished a family and friend's house, even ones that are still under construction for the sole reason that they are close to the border or can be seen from the Israeli sides. The damage caused in these 3 months are 100x folds the damage caused in the 14 month war. Naqoura was destroyed during the ceasefire and not the war.

When i speak of loss, i speak how the Lebanese army entered Naqoura on 26-Nov then retreated allowing the IDF to enter a town they did not enter during the war. Do you understand how bad the humiliation there is here? This and many towns that the IDF entered during the ceasefire and not the war. Then there is the matter of airstrikes and assassination, even today's in Sidon against Hamas. These are grave violations of the ceasefire and the Lebanese state failed to tackle them accordingly. You know well how many attacks, no need to elaborate more here.

That, and now the IDF has decided to stay in 5 Lebanese hills that compromise south Lebanon, violating the most clear term of the ceasefire deal that was signed by both parties when Lebanon was bombarded to rubble.

IF then the deal was to fully withdraw, by what means do they decide to stay in 5 bases and violate that and the 1701 deal that cleary does not state that Israel can build 5 bases in Lebanon and pretty sure says the IDF should return occupied lands to Lebanon (Ghajar, etc)

This is where is finish talking about the future. But before we do, let's talk about something very fast. About the UN and international Law.

Fuck it. Frankly, because for fuck's sake has it ever been implemented against the bad guys? or does this world only assumes morality on the side that is opposing the US and the collective western states. How can you explain to me how the US and Israel have not paid for the crimes that they have done, and yet everyone else has a UN resolution that works against it and in favor of the West.

Even the UN resolutions that they so effortlessly demand us to adhere to, they reject and do not adhere to. The UN says the IDF occupies the Golan Heights and should leave it. Never will happen and no one ever will enforce and punish Israel for that. Yet this world wants Lebanon to submit to 1701 and twist its meaning and force us to do our part while the IDF still occupies our lands, and has violated it more than 70,000 times since 2006. The number of IDF violations are almost more than the number of weapons the IDF confiscated from Lebanon. Imagine. The world lost its compass and only showcased to everyone again that the law is not to be respected. I say this not because I only learned this, but to remind you again, about how hypocrite they are and how their actions are the main reason that eroded the law based order of this world.

It get worse when the US, both democrat and republican, attack then sanction the international criminal court and when Israel kills that many UN members in Gaza and outlaws a UN agency from operating in Israel (UNRWA). They have eroded the legitimacy of the UN and eroded the foundation of this world based order that they keep on telling us about.

They want us to adhere to 1701 and disband Hezbullah yet they wont stop violating the 1701 and wont leave the occupied lands and will never agree to leave. And now, instead of showing us what this order based world is, and how to respect agreements, instead of leaving Lebanon they decided to build 5 bases in Lebanon and worse?

These bases will not be there to protect Israel, they are forward Israeli bases in Lebanon to allow IDF to kidnap people in Lebanon, demolish, shell, attack. You are mistaken if they will stay put. Shepherds and farmers will be kidnapped on weekly bases. You will soon see the hell we will live in and south Lebanon is back to the 1949-1969 era. Read the book i uploaded on the violations in that period.

While those basis are there, the IDF will not stop assassinations and airstrikes, and what will the Lebanese state do? Here is the moment when the Lebanese state will either uphold its responsibility or fail and during this Hezbullah will be on the side, waiting for the time when the state erodes its legitimacy and Israel crosses the line. Line that is already crossed, but lines can always be drawn with a pen.

This is where i go back to the first sentence, when I talked about how Sheikh Naim said. This war ended the way it did, and 1701 states it is the responsibility of the state to protect and defend. Hezbullah has disarmed in the border area, Hezbullah has not attacked or used arms, and Hezbullah has not responded to 1,000 + Israeli violations that includes airstrikes, killing of members, and killing of civilians. Now, is the time for the state to showcase its ability. Hezbullah is on the sidelines now as requested, and the state is now on top.

But please, do ignore all the ill educated people who say that Hezbullah cannot expect the state to uphold its responsibility now after Hezbullah caused this war and that Hezbullah should understand that what it did had repercussions. Yep, Bullshit mate.

The state can give the Lebanese army orders to shoot at IDF drones, the state can order the army to stop any Israeli raids on towns, the state can order the army to protest the IDF airstrikes. The state? can order the army to liberate the hills. There are were no repercussions in this war but on Hezbullah and the Shia. They are the only ones that suffered by loss. They are the only ones who lost their homes, money, and families. The state is intact, the army is intact, and the leadership of the state has the world's support.

So what now? What is the future of Hezbullah (in brief). Hezbullah will endure Israeli attacks and attempts to sabotage its rebuild up and Hezbullah will turn away for sometime even after 18-Feb regarding these hills and won't attack now. Like how they gave the state time to ensure the IDF withdraws from towns, they will give the state enough time to convince the US to force the IDF to leave. This is not a decision of weakness from Hezbullah nor because they need to rebuild people's homes or themselves, to liberate these hill you dont need what youd need in a full war. But rather, they dont want to give a pretext for the IDF, the U.S and the Lebanese state to deepen the dagger in south Lebanon and Hezbullah.

Sheikh Naim said a few weeks ago that it reached a humiliating state for u, in regards to the Israeli violations, but had we responded once, everyone would have equated our action to a 1,000 Israeli violation and sabotaged everything.

At the end of the day, we know the Jewish nature and we know the IDF will not leave through diplomacy and we all know that the resistance will start again in a very limited scope in south Lebanon to liberate these hills by putting enough leverage and burdening the IDF. Had the IDF left today, Hezbullah would not attack the IDF, they could have secured decades of peace. But this arrogance is going to force us into a future that will not be kind to us.

To leave, Hezbullah will attack the IDF in those bases. To attach, the IDF will retaliate and harm Hezbullah and the innocent civilians. This cycle will continue and the IDF instead of having comforted the settlers in the north, they would have showed that Hezbullah is still there and attacking us. And this itself will burden the IDF to not leave, because if they leave due to resistance, they have negated the reason they have stayed to protect these settlements.

Understand how bloody this cycle of events is? There is no easy way out at all. If the Lebanese state fails at diplomacy, and if the IDF arrogance does not blind from this diplomatic solution, we are in a problem that will cost us dearly. But let's have faith in God. Inshallah a miracle happens, and an IED blows up in a convoy of IDF soldiers on some nice morning with birds chipping and the sun singing.

For now, I dont ask you to have faith in a good future. I ask you to pray for God to help us get out of this situation in the most intact way, and move us towards a clear victory and path that will bring hope again against the odds and the evil of those inside Lebanon and on our borders. And pray for those men, who have sacrificed all and then those men who continue to sacrifice.

🧵 Thread about the new IDF doctrine and the Lebanese diplomacy

At one point there was a serious discussion if the path to a secure and safeguard Lebanon was through diplomacy or strength which is enabled through a resistance. However with time, similar to how the deterrence of the resistance eroded through the mishaps of the latest battle, the worth of diplomatic solutions eroded but faster without any fruits.

The difference is that the path to diplomacy was a just a shiny slogan spoken through the mouths of many who either never achieved anything for the overall best of Lebanon or used diplomacy as a veil to hide their ill intentions that intended to drive Lebanon towards full surrender and not only remove it from the few remaining Arab states with an active political and military front against Israel.

The goal was to shift its whole identity to one that strips it from its history and culture and put it under the shroud of a client state with no real security and no real worth in this world. You get peace by submission and erasing any threat to the West.
The dilemma here is and will always be that the side that chose to not to be part of the resistance does not get burdened at all with loss. They are neither subjected by the enemy to murder, nor are they subjected to material loss and pain. This makes the cost of choosing to be on the other side of the front that assumes the moral high ground in the world affairs, easy and without any costs.

On the contrary, the resistance is not only facing the burdens of justifying its existence and then the burdens of building up strength despite the challenges, it is burdened by the immense costs of loss and material damages that affects it and affect its supporting base. This base that needs a lot of effort to keep rallied around the cause.

To explain this, compare the costs paid by Hezbullah in 2006 to secure 17 years of unpreceded peace and deterrence before the setback of 2024, verses the costs paid by its political opponents in Lebanon. All the achievements done by Hezbullah since 2000 were ridiculed, yet when the winds shifted in favor of its opponents without any cost or effort from them, and despite years of making wrong assumptions and decisions, they were hailed.

What I personally find annoying is the hypocrisy that these opponents showcase, and their disregard of any decency in politics. What I find particularly wrong and is within the scope of this, is how they refused to adhere to the legitimacy given to Hezbullah in the past decade through the ministerial statement and once it was dropped, it became the holy words of God and now Hezbullah is an outlaw.

However the disregard to any decency has been showcased particularly not by the general populace of Lebanese who are against Hezbullah's arms, but by the Lebanese Forces party whose officials today crossed an unpreceded low announcing that they are ready to mandate Israel to defeat Hezbullah in the south and the Syrians in the north. They took a step further and said its high time for the Lebanese army itself to fight Hezbullah and that they accept genocide against Shia if done by the Syrians. This is what their head of communication Charles Jabour said.

The issue of Hezbullah's arms is indeed a topic that can be discussed. While it is a norm for us, and we not only accept it but encourage it, in the wider definition of states it is indeed irregular to have an armed faction whose power at one point rivals that of states.

The only difference between this irregularity and any other, that Hezbullah did not leverage this power to take over the state and submit others like how everyone else in history did, and focused only on Israel. And had Hezbullah not face mishaps in the latest war, and had Israel not get a green light from the whole world to act as it pleases unrestrained by any laws of humanity, the discussion of the weapons would not have sparked such polarity as it is doing today.

#admin

Because to be frank, while a reddendum in Lebanon would be in favor of not accepting normalization with Israel, a referendum in Lebanon would be in favor of disarming Hezbullah. The Shia alone are the ones with enough political wit and understanding to know the importance of this power and what it presents.
What many seem to forget, is that power was what liberated south Lebanon to conclude an 18 year long occupation. It was power that liberated the prisoners in 2008 after a costly war, and it this particular costly war that gave Lebanon 18 years of unpreceded peace unwitnessed since the Lebanese state was created in 1940's. Everyone seems to forget these 2 decades.

The only difference today, is that Israel is at the height of its strength and has abandoned its old doctrines and is now facing a much inferior enemy than it did months ago. Will not discuss the legitimacy of resistance nor the war. The legitimacy is inherit and the war is discussed in the hyperlinked threads below. The last covers the present and the future that we are in now.

https://news.1rj.ru/str/LebUpdate/49218 (this thread and attached links)

Do read them, they are very useful and I do find the points that they make great debate points that cannot be refuted by any anti-resistance people.
What I want to focus on is: does diplomacy actually ensures Lebanon's safety and what is the change in the doctrine of the Israeli army.

In terms of doctrine, I'll set aside the spectacular and efficient changes in the Israeli military doctrine that has shaped its warfare and made it a much more efficient fighting force that even without the mishaps faced by Hezbullah, it would have demonstrated a very high-end military performance.

The recent changes in the doctrine are about Israel itself and how it perceives threats and it only is akin to the operation in 1982, as an example, where Israel assumed that the basis of its security extended from securing the border to assuming that eliminating the core threat on statewide is the path for Israel.

The "Galilee peace" operation stretched the from areas that can be a threat to the Galilee to areas as far as Beirut until they expelled the Palestinians from Lebanon. See while the IDF did not reach Tyre let alone Beirut in this operation (2024), the depth of the damage they caused reached farther. However the damage was not intended to win the war only, but to ensure that there will be no threat again.

That concept of ensuring there is no threat, is what we have witnessed for years in the West Bank, where the IDF would pre-emptively arrest youth and place them under administrative detention not because they broke the law, but because they can be classified as youth who could in the future become a threat. So the IDF decided to arrest them.

This behavior started there (at a large scale), however there was another behavior that started in the West Bank and we would later see at a much wider scale in Lebanon and Gaza, and it is the demolition of houses and towns. There, the IDF would demolish the house of a resistance fighter that killed an Israeli. The demolition is considered collective punishment because the house in most cases belongs to several other family members

With no one to stop this behavior, the IDF implemented it as core project in the invasion of Lebanon and Gaza in 2023-2024. The only difference is, in Gaza the strip was destroyed as a collective punishment for 7-Oct and to ensure the Palestinians have no were to go in preparation of Trump's 2025 plan for mass exodus. Where as in Lebanon, the goal was to create a buffer zone where locals are unable to return homes for years, and ensure Hezbullah cannot come back because without the locals, Hezbullah does not exist.

This is in regards to the demolishment, however the equivalent of administration detention in the new doctrine in the elimination of threats through creating a new set of rules on the ground that dictate a new threat is not allowed to emerge in the future. This is the same motto from the West Bank but covers now countries and whole organizations.

In IDF's doctrine now, Hezbullah was defeated and after this defeat, Hezbullah should not be allowed to establish itself again even if Hezbullah and Lebanon adhere strictly to the ceasefire agreement. It does not matter if Hezbullah disarmed south of the Litani river and it does not matter if Hezbullah is not threating to attack Israel. As long as there is a Hezbullah who carries an anti-Israel ideology, Israel will continue to see him as the historic threat he was and act based on that.

See today's large wave of Israeli attacks are not an exclusive example of this. The violent attacks can be classified under how Israel perceives Lebanon today, as weak and vulnerable with no foe on par and wants to exert a price too high for such a negligible attack from Lebanon. Even with Hezbullah's denial, the IDF attacked Hezbullah because they know they are the only meaningful future threat. The lack of proportionality is a message of strength and an act to yet again comfort the settlers and punish the Lebanese. This attack happened because we lost the deterrence during this war and the Lebanese state failed to uphold the 5-member committee to its obligations to set a leach on Israel.

See, the ceasefire agreement was close to perfect had it been implemented as it should be. Like it or not, Hezbullah largely disarmed in south of the Litani river and handed many key positions to the Lebanese state. Similarly, the U.S has confirmed that the Lebanese army has destroyed countless Hezbullah rockets and the U.N confirmed that Hezbullah did not attempt any military movement in the border area since the ceasefire in November.

The Lebanese army claims to have dismantled more than 400 infrastructure owned by hezbullah.

Despite that, Israel not only demolished the border towns during the ceasefire, and not only did they occupy major hills in south Lebanon and created a buffer zone against the clear stipulation in the ceasefire agreement to fully withdraw, they have attacked without any provocation countless of Hezbullah's assets in Beqaa and north of the Litani river. They also assassinated many members in civilian life, when the ceasefire agreements was clear: No buffer zone, no more armed conflict.
These violations are in the thousands, and day after day continue to be painful despite Lebanon's adherence to the agreement. Hope the above explained the doctrine and I was very brief, else I would have given a much much longer explanation.

Based on this new doctrine, the IDF had the green light to nullify the worth of these agreements including the 1701 UN decree. The issue is, there is no one to exert pressure on Israel, even though Lebanon is a state whose president today is a favorite of the Arabs and Americans. Every Israeli attack on Lebanon is a violation, every Israeli retaliation that is not proportional is a violation, and with every passing second of the Israel presence on Lebanese lands and air activity they are in aggression.
These actions are enough to void the 1701 and the ceasefire agreement, however in our world the UN is too weak to be a meaningful institute and the head of the ceasefire committee is an American general who is clearly biased towards Israel. So what is the solution.

Clearly Hezbullah has no intention to fight now, especially with no funds to rebuild yet and Syria's collapse. Not only that, Hezbullah is still far from concluding the investigations into the mishaps of the previous war and the gaps that led to these results. The conditions are not ripe. For that, Hezbullah through its full adherence to the ceasefire agreement wants to buy time and at the same time succumb itself to the changes in Lebanon that have put it at odds with the new leadership. It is a win win situation where they lay low and let the Lebanese state uphold the responsibility of security that it always have claimed is its sole duty.