This is a phenomenally strong jobs report, way stronger than forecast and more than the average payrolls expansion for the year through June. This will increase chatter for a 75-bp move from the Fed, and the reaction should be along those lines.

함의: 9월 중앙은행의 75bp 금리인상에 가까워지는 강력한 고용 보고서가 발표됨.

Former Fed Governor Randall Kroszner says on Bloomberg TV: “Certainly 75 basis points will be on the table for the next meeting.”

Here is tree-map visualization breakdown of the headline July number of 528,000 new jobs.

Average hourly earnings came in significantly higher than expected MoM, at 0.5% vs 0.3. Here’s the breakdown by industry.

FULL RECOVERY: Here’s the 29-month change in payrolls since the pre-pandemic highs in employment, broken up by industry.

The strong jobs report validates the Fed’s view of a resilient economy that can withstand additional interest-rate hikes. Traders must now recalibrate expectations for Fed policy, with a hike of three-quarters of a percentage point now the more likely scenario at the September meeting as the central bank battles inflation. A handful of Fed officials said this week reiterated the central bank’s resolve to bring down high prices. Among them is Fed St Louis President James Bullard, who has said he favors a strategy of front-loading big interest-rate hikes. That stance has likely strengthened after Friday’s job report, paving the path for an outsized hike and ruling out the possibility of a dovish pivot that Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted at last week. “Odds of a 75 bp move next month have shot up, as they should,” writes Win Thin, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. “We still get one more jobs report before the September FOMC but barring a disaster, I think 75 bp then is a done deal.”

함의: 이번 고용 보고서는 중앙은행이 금리인상을 지속해도 경제가 굳건할 수 있다는 여러 인사들의 지난 발언을 뒷받침하며, 9월 75bp 인상은 확정에 가깝다고 봄.

Front-end US interest rates surged following a stronger-than-anticipated monthly jobs report, with swaps now indicating that an increase of 75 basis points to the Federal Reserve’s benchmark rate is now seen as a more likely outcome than 50 basis points at the central bank’s September meeting.

함의: 고용 보고서 이후 금리인상 폭에 대한 구조가 완전히 바뀜.

The S&P 500 rose over 9% in July, its best monthly performance since November 2020. It was also the best July performance for the gauge in the last two decades. But any expectation that the large bounce since last month’s lows has reduced the odds of dropping back to a new low is built on hope more than anything conclusive, history shows. An analysis using Fibonacci tools for each of the six bear markets in the S&P 500 since the turn of the century shows that bear market rallies -- sharp and fast ones -- have occurred frequently as the market got deeply oversold. But on every single occasion, the downtrend reasserted itself with the gauge falling to lower lows.

함의: 7월 주식시장 랠리는 참여자들에게 저점을 확인했다는 기대를 줬지만, 지난 6번의 약세장을 분석해보면 시장의 과매도에서 가파른 반등이 자주 발생하는 반면, 그 모든 반등은 하락으로 전환하면서 새로운 저점을 만들었음.

9월 중앙은행의 금리인상폭의 실시간 변화임. 현재 70bp에 도달.

Almost 2,000 dock workers at Britain’s biggest container ship port plan to strike for eight days later this month after failing to reach a pay deal, threatening to sever one of the UK’s most important trade routes. Workers at Felixstowe will strike from Aug. 21 to 29, the Unite union said in a statement Friday. Talks failed after the port, owned by a unit of CK Hutchison Holdings Ltd., did not improve its offer of a 7% pay increase, the labor group said. Felixstowe, northeast of London, is a key hub for imports as well as some exports from the UK, and accounts for nearly half the country’s container trade. The strikes will have a “huge effect” on supply chains and cause severe disruption to international maritime trade, according to the union, which is vowing a full shutdown of the port.

함의: 2,000여명의 근로자가 있으며 영국 컨테이너선 무역의 절반을 차지하는 항구가 7%의 임금인상 협상이 결렬되며 8일 간 파업에 들어 갈 위기에 처함.

"There is only one rule for being a good talker - learn to listen."

- Christopher Morley

Traders Give Some Probability to an Intermeeting Fed Rate Hike. Interest-rate futures traders, reacting to stronger-than-expected July jobs data, acknowledged some risk that Federal Reserve policy makers could raise rates again before their next scheduled policy meeting in September. The price of August futures on the federal funds rate dropped as low as 97.64, corresponding to a rate of 2.36%, three basis points higher than the current effective rate, which falls in the 2.25%-2.5% range set by the US central bank at its July 27 meeting. The implied rate subsequently stabilized around 2.345%, pricing in minimal probability of an intermeeting move. The unusually long gap between the July and September meetings creates additional risk, however. The last time the Fed hiked rates between meetings was in April 1994. Intermeeting cuts have been more frequent, occurring most recently in March 2020.

함의: 예정 된 통화정책회의 전에 금리를 인상한 것은 1994년 4월이 마지막, 대부분 비정기 금리인하(2020년 3월처럼)가 많았음. 고용 데이터 발표 이후 8월 형성 된 선물가격이 내재하는 금리가 정책금리 수준 위에 있어 이 상태가 길어질 경우 7월과 9월 사이 비정기 통화정책회의를 통한 금리인상 위험이 있어보임.