Front-end US interest rates surged following a stronger-than-anticipated monthly jobs report, with swaps now indicating that an increase of 75 basis points to the Federal Reserve’s benchmark rate is now seen as a more likely outcome than 50 basis points at the central bank’s September meeting.

함의: 고용 보고서 이후 금리인상 폭에 대한 구조가 완전히 바뀜.

The S&P 500 rose over 9% in July, its best monthly performance since November 2020. It was also the best July performance for the gauge in the last two decades. But any expectation that the large bounce since last month’s lows has reduced the odds of dropping back to a new low is built on hope more than anything conclusive, history shows. An analysis using Fibonacci tools for each of the six bear markets in the S&P 500 since the turn of the century shows that bear market rallies -- sharp and fast ones -- have occurred frequently as the market got deeply oversold. But on every single occasion, the downtrend reasserted itself with the gauge falling to lower lows.

함의: 7월 주식시장 랠리는 참여자들에게 저점을 확인했다는 기대를 줬지만, 지난 6번의 약세장을 분석해보면 시장의 과매도에서 가파른 반등이 자주 발생하는 반면, 그 모든 반등은 하락으로 전환하면서 새로운 저점을 만들었음.

9월 중앙은행의 금리인상폭의 실시간 변화임. 현재 70bp에 도달.

Almost 2,000 dock workers at Britain’s biggest container ship port plan to strike for eight days later this month after failing to reach a pay deal, threatening to sever one of the UK’s most important trade routes. Workers at Felixstowe will strike from Aug. 21 to 29, the Unite union said in a statement Friday. Talks failed after the port, owned by a unit of CK Hutchison Holdings Ltd., did not improve its offer of a 7% pay increase, the labor group said. Felixstowe, northeast of London, is a key hub for imports as well as some exports from the UK, and accounts for nearly half the country’s container trade. The strikes will have a “huge effect” on supply chains and cause severe disruption to international maritime trade, according to the union, which is vowing a full shutdown of the port.

함의: 2,000여명의 근로자가 있으며 영국 컨테이너선 무역의 절반을 차지하는 항구가 7%의 임금인상 협상이 결렬되며 8일 간 파업에 들어 갈 위기에 처함.

"There is only one rule for being a good talker - learn to listen."

- Christopher Morley

Traders Give Some Probability to an Intermeeting Fed Rate Hike. Interest-rate futures traders, reacting to stronger-than-expected July jobs data, acknowledged some risk that Federal Reserve policy makers could raise rates again before their next scheduled policy meeting in September. The price of August futures on the federal funds rate dropped as low as 97.64, corresponding to a rate of 2.36%, three basis points higher than the current effective rate, which falls in the 2.25%-2.5% range set by the US central bank at its July 27 meeting. The implied rate subsequently stabilized around 2.345%, pricing in minimal probability of an intermeeting move. The unusually long gap between the July and September meetings creates additional risk, however. The last time the Fed hiked rates between meetings was in April 1994. Intermeeting cuts have been more frequent, occurring most recently in March 2020.

함의: 예정 된 통화정책회의 전에 금리를 인상한 것은 1994년 4월이 마지막, 대부분 비정기 금리인하(2020년 3월처럼)가 많았음. 고용 데이터 발표 이후 8월 형성 된 선물가격이 내재하는 금리가 정책금리 수준 위에 있어 이 상태가 길어질 경우 7월과 9월 사이 비정기 통화정책회의를 통한 금리인상 위험이 있어보임.

Starbucks Corp.’s lineup of fruity summer drinks aren’t as fruity as their names suggest, a New York City woman is alleging in a proposed class action lawsuit that asks, “Where’s the acai?”. “Despite their names, and unbeknownst to consumers, the Mango Dragonfruit and Mango Dragonfruit Lemonade Refreshers contain no mango, the Pineapple Passionfruit and Pineapple Passionfruit Lemonade Refreshers contain no passionfruit, and the Strawberry Acai and Strawberry Acai Lemonade Refreshers contain no acai,” Joan Kominis said in the suit filed Friday in Manhattan federal court. The case is Kominis v. Starbucks, 22-cv-06673, US District Court, Southern District of New York.

함의: 스타벅스 여름 과일 음료의 재료가 이름값을 못한다는 이유(the product names constitute an “implied promise”)로 소송

What does a Bloomberg journalist read on holiday? This year, you might expect books about Russia, about gas, or about failing economies. But what about Poldark, children’s thrillers, or even The Iliad?
As we take a break — normal service will resume towards the end of August — I asked a host of people around the newsroom for books they’ve enjoyed this year or are hoping to read this summer.

Weaker growth data and a Fed sensitive to it instilled a 'bad is good' mindset into markets. But the easing of financial conditions since mid-June sets the scene for the inverse: good data would be bad for risky assets, eventually. And eventually came early.

보고서: 예상을 하회하는 지표에 민감한 중앙은행으로 인해 '나빠야 좋다.'라는 생각을 심었지만, 6월 이후 금융완화적 환경으로 이 사고가 반전되어 좋은 데이터가 위험자산에 좋지 않게 되었음. 그리고 그것은 생각보다 빨리옴. (Morgan Stanley - 'Good Is Bad' Gets Revenge)

The Federal Reserve should keep considering large hikes similar to the 75 basis-point increase approved last month until inflation meaningfully declines, Governor Michelle Bowman said. “My view is that similarly-sized increases should be on the table until we see inflation declining in a consistent, meaningful, and lasting way,” Bowman said Saturday in remarks prepared for an event organized by the Kansas Bankers Association. Bowman added that she supported last month’s rate increase and backed the move away from offering specific forward guidance at the press conferences following policy meetings. 

함의: 인플레이션이 일관되고, 의미있게, 지속적으로 떨어질 때까지 75bp 규모의 금리인상을 해야한다고 주장함.

US shale oil drillers continue to show little sign of responding to high global prices with more production, only now it's not just their focus on rewarding shareholders that's holding them back, but also a preoccupation with soaring costs. The combined oil and gas production forecasts from a dozen companies that have reported second-quarter results in recent days is barely changed from three months earlier, down just 0.6%, despite US crude prices surging to $120 a barrel this year after Russia invaded Ukraine. At the same time, higher diesel, steel, chemical and labor costs have prompted the companies to raise capital budgets by 7%. Shale executives’ unwillingness to boost production means the world oil market has effectively lost its two biggest growth engines. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries admitted to “severely limited availability of excess capacity” this week, and said what little is left can only be tapped with “great caution.” Meanwhile, US drillers have concluded that record profits and cash flows are better spent on share buybacks and dividends rather than deploying more rigs. 

함의: 에너지 가격 상승에도 불구 미국 내 기업들은 생산량 확대를 위한 투자보다 각종 비용 상승에 따른 지출 예산을 더 늘리고, 주주환원에 자원을 할당함. OPEC과 미국 기업의 이런 행태는 두 개의 커다란 성장동력을 잃었음을 의미함.

Hedge funds seem to have a new mantra in the US stock and bond market – sell everything. Net-short leveraged fund positions in S&P 500 e-mini futures have grown steadily for seven weeks to the most since 2015, according to the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Equivalent bearish bets on Treasuries -- from a gauge of futures positions aggregated across the curve -- have grown for five out of the past six weeks, hitting the most since Feb. 2021.

함의: Everything Overpriced.