Weaker growth data and a Fed sensitive to it instilled a 'bad is good' mindset into markets. But the easing of financial conditions since mid-June sets the scene for the inverse: good data would be bad for risky assets, eventually. And eventually came early.

보고서: 예상을 하회하는 지표에 민감한 중앙은행으로 인해 '나빠야 좋다.'라는 생각을 심었지만, 6월 이후 금융완화적 환경으로 이 사고가 반전되어 좋은 데이터가 위험자산에 좋지 않게 되었음. 그리고 그것은 생각보다 빨리옴. (Morgan Stanley - 'Good Is Bad' Gets Revenge)

The Federal Reserve should keep considering large hikes similar to the 75 basis-point increase approved last month until inflation meaningfully declines, Governor Michelle Bowman said. “My view is that similarly-sized increases should be on the table until we see inflation declining in a consistent, meaningful, and lasting way,” Bowman said Saturday in remarks prepared for an event organized by the Kansas Bankers Association. Bowman added that she supported last month’s rate increase and backed the move away from offering specific forward guidance at the press conferences following policy meetings. 

함의: 인플레이션이 일관되고, 의미있게, 지속적으로 떨어질 때까지 75bp 규모의 금리인상을 해야한다고 주장함.

US shale oil drillers continue to show little sign of responding to high global prices with more production, only now it's not just their focus on rewarding shareholders that's holding them back, but also a preoccupation with soaring costs. The combined oil and gas production forecasts from a dozen companies that have reported second-quarter results in recent days is barely changed from three months earlier, down just 0.6%, despite US crude prices surging to $120 a barrel this year after Russia invaded Ukraine. At the same time, higher diesel, steel, chemical and labor costs have prompted the companies to raise capital budgets by 7%. Shale executives’ unwillingness to boost production means the world oil market has effectively lost its two biggest growth engines. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries admitted to “severely limited availability of excess capacity” this week, and said what little is left can only be tapped with “great caution.” Meanwhile, US drillers have concluded that record profits and cash flows are better spent on share buybacks and dividends rather than deploying more rigs. 

함의: 에너지 가격 상승에도 불구 미국 내 기업들은 생산량 확대를 위한 투자보다 각종 비용 상승에 따른 지출 예산을 더 늘리고, 주주환원에 자원을 할당함. OPEC과 미국 기업의 이런 행태는 두 개의 커다란 성장동력을 잃었음을 의미함.

Hedge funds seem to have a new mantra in the US stock and bond market – sell everything. Net-short leveraged fund positions in S&P 500 e-mini futures have grown steadily for seven weeks to the most since 2015, according to the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Equivalent bearish bets on Treasuries -- from a gauge of futures positions aggregated across the curve -- have grown for five out of the past six weeks, hitting the most since Feb. 2021.

함의: Everything Overpriced.

The debate about a pause in the Fed’s hiking cycle has flipped 180 degrees to now consider the risk of an intra-meeting rate hike. Should that narrative gain traction in the coming days, Nasdaq contracts could be among the most vulnerable to a swoon lower.

함의: 금리인상 중단의 주제가 정반대로 돌아 비정기미팅 금리인상으로 바뀐 뒤 가장 취약해 보이는 곳은 성장주임.

China’s riskiest borrowers are sliding to record lows in global credit markets as a debt crisis in the country’s property sector spreads, fueling defaults and effectively blocking developer refinancing just as more bond deadlines loom. Average prices of high-yield Chinese dollar notes, most of which are issued by real estate firms, fell 0.5 to 1 cent, according to traders. That leaves them set for their lowest-ever level, below a 56.5-cent end-of-day nadir reached in March, according to a Bloomberg index. “The record low dollar bond price is a reflection of high probability of restructuring or default,” said Carl Wong, a portfolio manager at Avenue Asset Management. “Investors no longer care for yield, but issuers’ ability to repay.” 

함의: 중국 부동산 기업들에 대한 구조조정이나 도산에 대한 우려가 부각되며 회사채 가격이 최저치를 기록했고, 투자자들은 이제 수익률이 아니라 상환가능성에 더 관심을 두고 있음.

Shipping in the Taiwan Strait showed signs of returning to normal, despite a lack of clarity over whether China’s military exercises around the island have ended. More than 30 vessels have transited through China’s drill zone south of Taiwan’s main port since Sunday, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, with the latest ship positions showing four of the total six zones being traversed. 

함의: 여전한 불확실성에도 불구 본래 경로로 항해를 시작한 서른척 정도의 선박은 이 항로가 공급망과 원자재에 얼마나 중요 지점(a key route for supply chains and commodities)인지 알 수 있게함.

Apple Inc., which used to acquire a company every three or four weeks, has dramatically slowed its dealmaking in the past two years, a sign the tech giant is being more choosy in the face of a shaky economy and heightened government scrutiny. The company spent just $33 million on payments connected to acquisitions in its last fiscal year and $169 million in the first nine months of the current year, according to regulatory filings. That’s down from $1.5 billion in fiscal 2020. Apple is famous for avoiding the kind of blockbuster acquisitions that have enticed its Silicon Valley peers. But the company has spent much of its history snapping up promising startups, some of which formed the basis for popular features such as Siri and Face ID. Just last February, Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook noted that Apple had acquired 100 companies in the past six years -- more than one a month on average.

함의: 대형 기업보다 스타트업(Siri나 Face ID 기반이 된 기업처럼)을 중심으로 3~4주에 하나씩 지난 6년 간 100여개의 기업을 인수한 애플, 다만 최근 각박해지는 경제환경과 정부의 규제로 인해 인수 활동이 대폭 줄었음.

S&P 500 futures slipped from session highs after tech heavyweight Nvidia released disappointing preliminary revenue results. The stock, one of the 10 biggest in the S&P 500 and number 2 in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, is plunging ~8% ahead of the bell.

함의: Futures Pare Gains With Nvidia Shock.

KKR & Co., the private investing giant that’s been picking through battered bond markets, said it’s favoring risky bonds over stocks after this year’s steep selloff. High-yield spreads have widened to meet long-term averages, while stocks are still trading above historical levels, according to KKR. “Credit is trading at attractive levels and the yields are inviting,” KKR’s credit and markets team, co-headed by Chris Sheldon, wrote on Monday in a letter to investors. And in private markets, “this could be a golden vintage for junior debt.”. KKR likened the high-yield trade to opportunities available in early 2020, when the onset of the global pandemic sparked a debt-market plunge. KKR spent billions buying bonds and loans as many other investors stayed away, and the firm resurrected a fund known for capitalizing on market dislocations. That fund has since posted a 14% gross return, according to a regulatory filing.

함의: 투자자들이 썰물처럼 빠져나간 고수익 회사채 시장에서 'KKR'은 바이러스 대확산 시기만큼의 황금기가 올 수 있다고 자신하며 수십억 달러 규모의 매수를 하고 있음. 주식의 경우 장기평균 위에서 거래되는데 반해 고수익 회사채의 스프레드는 장기평균에 수렴해 매력적인 구간의 기회를 주고 있다고 함.

Meme-Stock Revival Shows Fed’s Communication Problem. The recent easing in financial conditions paved the way for the comeback of retail-stock darlings like AMC Entertainment and Bed Bath & Beyond. It shows Fed has a lot more work to do to hammer home the idea that higher interest rates are coming. Struggling retailer Bed Bath & Beyond jumped 64% at the open for no obvious reason. The stock is extending gains for nine straight sessions, its longest gaining streak since early 2007. The company is mired in a deep sales slump and mulling ways to boost liquidity.

함의: 판매부진과 유동성 조달의 고민에 빠진 Bed Bath & Beyond가 특별한 이유 없이 +64% 상승 시작할 정도로 개인 투자자들의 투기적 거래가 다시 증가하면서 중앙은행이 금리를 더 인상할 수 있다는 확신을 심어주지 못했다는 반증이기도 함.