Apple Inc., which used to acquire a company every three or four weeks, has dramatically slowed its dealmaking in the past two years, a sign the tech giant is being more choosy in the face of a shaky economy and heightened government scrutiny. The company spent just $33 million on payments connected to acquisitions in its last fiscal year and $169 million in the first nine months of the current year, according to regulatory filings. That’s down from $1.5 billion in fiscal 2020. Apple is famous for avoiding the kind of blockbuster acquisitions that have enticed its Silicon Valley peers. But the company has spent much of its history snapping up promising startups, some of which formed the basis for popular features such as Siri and Face ID. Just last February, Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook noted that Apple had acquired 100 companies in the past six years -- more than one a month on average.

함의: 대형 기업보다 스타트업(Siri나 Face ID 기반이 된 기업처럼)을 중심으로 3~4주에 하나씩 지난 6년 간 100여개의 기업을 인수한 애플, 다만 최근 각박해지는 경제환경과 정부의 규제로 인해 인수 활동이 대폭 줄었음.

S&P 500 futures slipped from session highs after tech heavyweight Nvidia released disappointing preliminary revenue results. The stock, one of the 10 biggest in the S&P 500 and number 2 in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, is plunging ~8% ahead of the bell.

함의: Futures Pare Gains With Nvidia Shock.

KKR & Co., the private investing giant that’s been picking through battered bond markets, said it’s favoring risky bonds over stocks after this year’s steep selloff. High-yield spreads have widened to meet long-term averages, while stocks are still trading above historical levels, according to KKR. “Credit is trading at attractive levels and the yields are inviting,” KKR’s credit and markets team, co-headed by Chris Sheldon, wrote on Monday in a letter to investors. And in private markets, “this could be a golden vintage for junior debt.”. KKR likened the high-yield trade to opportunities available in early 2020, when the onset of the global pandemic sparked a debt-market plunge. KKR spent billions buying bonds and loans as many other investors stayed away, and the firm resurrected a fund known for capitalizing on market dislocations. That fund has since posted a 14% gross return, according to a regulatory filing.

함의: 투자자들이 썰물처럼 빠져나간 고수익 회사채 시장에서 'KKR'은 바이러스 대확산 시기만큼의 황금기가 올 수 있다고 자신하며 수십억 달러 규모의 매수를 하고 있음. 주식의 경우 장기평균 위에서 거래되는데 반해 고수익 회사채의 스프레드는 장기평균에 수렴해 매력적인 구간의 기회를 주고 있다고 함.

Meme-Stock Revival Shows Fed’s Communication Problem. The recent easing in financial conditions paved the way for the comeback of retail-stock darlings like AMC Entertainment and Bed Bath & Beyond. It shows Fed has a lot more work to do to hammer home the idea that higher interest rates are coming. Struggling retailer Bed Bath & Beyond jumped 64% at the open for no obvious reason. The stock is extending gains for nine straight sessions, its longest gaining streak since early 2007. The company is mired in a deep sales slump and mulling ways to boost liquidity.

함의: 판매부진과 유동성 조달의 고민에 빠진 Bed Bath & Beyond가 특별한 이유 없이 +64% 상승 시작할 정도로 개인 투자자들의 투기적 거래가 다시 증가하면서 중앙은행이 금리를 더 인상할 수 있다는 확신을 심어주지 못했다는 반증이기도 함.

"Some things have to be believed to be seen."

- Ralph Hodgson

US stocks failed to hold onto earlier gains, with a gloomy Nvidia forecast weighing on tech and traders mulling Fed hikes after Friday's jobs data and before Wednesday's inflation print. Treasuries climbed, with the 10-year yield down more than 8 bps at 2.75%. Gold and oil rallied, and the dollar weakened against all G-10 peers. Bigger Fed hikes are in store, economists say, spurred on by last week's blowout US jobs report. JPMorgan and LH Meyer now see a 75-bp increase in September, up from a prior 50-bp prediction, and Citi "would not be too surprised by a 100-bp hike if core inflation comes in stronger than expected."

함의: 대형 기술주의 부정적 전망과 고용에 이은 물가 지표 상회가 연이을 경우 75bp~100bp 금리인상도 각오해야 할 두려움에 상승을 반납함.

The main theme in Treasuries today is on flattener initiation. It’s likely that the spread between 2s10s visits -50 bps to -56 bps in the days ahead. Hedge funds have engaged in various bets on more flattening in futures -- namely 10-year versus ultra bonds and 2-year contracts against ultra 10-years. Mortgage portfolios managed by mutual funds have done it with 2s and 10s in cash Treasuries. Real money too has engaged in assorted bets the inversion will grow. Flatteners got the green light once again Friday after a huge beat on the July non-farm payroll report. The spread between 2s10s set lows of -44 bps Friday. That level has been surpassed today with an inversion to ~-45 bps. The next level to target is -50 bps, which is the size of the inversion last set in August 2000 based on a weekly chart. Then there’s the largest level for the cycle, which was -56 bps set in April 2000.

함의: 미국 국채 장기와 단기 간 금리역전이 다시 진행되는 중에 투기적 포지션 외에 현물 포지션도 역전폭 확대로 구축되는 중, 차트대로 흘러갈 경우 1차 목표는 2000년 8월의 -50bps, 2차 목표는 최대 역전폭이었던 2000년 4월의 -56bps임.

Stocks Reverse on Index Algo Led Technical Selloff. The S&P 500 wiped out a rally of as much as 1% after a large sell program went through the equity market soon after the Nasdaq index retraced 38.2% of its losses from the November highs to the June lows.

함의: 지난 밤 기술주에 집중 된 알고리즘 매매는 작년 11월 고점에서 올해 6월 저점을 연결하는 피보나치 되돌림 38.2%에서 대량 실행됨.

China is unlikely to cut key rates in short term amid interest rate gap between China and US and rising inflationary pressure, as well as deficit demand that counters loosening monetary policy, Securities Daily reports, citing Wu Chaoming, deputy dean of Chasing Securities Co.’s Chasing Institute. Likelihood for China to fully cut RRR in 2H is low as inflationary pressures strengthen in 3Q and 4Q and as other economies keep raising rates, but LPR may reduce, report said, citing Pang Ming, an economist with Jones Lang LaSalle Inc. China may step up measures to stabilize economy with possibility to raise fiscal deficit level or release extra special treasury bonds that is not counted in fiscal deficit, report said, citing Chen Li, chief economist with Chuancai Securities Co.

함의: 경제안정이 필요한 중국이 미국과 확대 된 금리차이나 높은 물가로 인해 예금지급준비율을 낮출 순 없겠으나, 재정적자 폭을 확대하거나 이에 계상되지 않는 채권발행 등의 수단을 쓸 수 있다고 함.

An inflation tracker used by the Fed is suggesting a headline y/y CPI print closer to 9% on Wednesday -- above the median forecast of 8.7% -- if a trend seen over the last year continues. The Cleveland Fed’s headline CPI nowcast has seen its month-end reading underestimate the actual figure by an average of 17.7bps over the past year. The average miss grows to 22.7bps looking at just the past 6 months. The end-July reading was 8.82%, which points to a CPI of 9% if the recent error trend holds. At the very least, the nowcast has underestimated actual CPI for the last nine months in a row and is already above official forecasts for July.

함의: 지난 1년 간 시장 예상치는 실제 인플레이션을 매 월 17.7bp 과소평가, 최근 6개월 간 22.7bp 과소평가 했는데, 이 추세를 이어보면 오늘 발표 될 물가지표는 예상치 8.82%를 상회하는 9%대일 가능성 있음.

China’s top leadership has grown increasingly frustrated with a years-long failure to develop semiconductors that can replace US circuitry, an embarrassment capped by a flurry of anti-graft probes into top industry officials and the $9 billion rescue of Tsinghua Unigroup. Senior officials are angry at how tens of billions of dollars funneled into the industry over the past decade haven’t produced the sorts of breakthroughs that emerged from previous national-level scientific endeavors, according to people familiar with top government officials’ thinking. Washington, which has steadily ratcheted up restraints on China, has been able to strong-arm Beijing and successfully contain its technological ambitions, they said, asking not to be identified revealing sensitive deliberations. The investigations have sent shockwaves through a semiconductor industry long accustomed to top-level support. Xi Jinping’s government had allocated more than $100 billion to build up a domestic semiconductor sector so the country could break its dependence on the West. A key area of scrutiny is the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund -- known within the industry as Big Fund -- which had become Beijing’s primary vehicle for doling out capital to the country’s chipmakers. “If you’re going to be putting tens of billions of dollars in an industry, regardless of whether it’s a high technology one or just like building trains and airports, you’re going to have illicit dealings going on,” said Jordan Schneider, a senior analyst at Rhodium Group and host of the China Talk podcast.

함의: 첨단산업이 아니라 전통 건설업에라도 수백억 달러를 쏟아부으면 불법거래가 어찌 안생기겠는가.

The rally in European tech stocks, combined with analysts trimming their price targets, is limiting the potential upside outlook for the sector. After leading the selloff in the first half, tech stocks are the best-performing sector of the Stoxx 600. The sector still faces a flurry of headwinds from hawkish central banks, surging inflation and supply constraints.

함의: 상반기 강한 매도세 이후 훌륭한 성과를 기록한 기술업종, 다만 여전한 금리인상 기간, 인플레이션, 공급망 병목으로 상승여력이 적어보임.

Market indicators signaling a coming recession look to be spreading from US Treasuries to bonds worldwide. With a closely-watched section of the Treasuries yield curve already inverted by the most in more than two decades -- a gauge often seen as a harbinger of an economic slowdown -- the gap between short- and long-end New Zealand rates has narrowed to the smallest in seven years. The difference between Australia’s 10- and three-year bond futures -- its favored measure -- is the flattest in more than a decade, while the UK’s yield curve briefly inverted earlier this month. Fears of a downturn are sweeping across much of the developed world as investors fret that aggressive policy tightening to tame inflation may put a sharp brake on growth. Bond traders are growing increasingly doubtful that central banks can pull off a soft landing as key indicators such as US business activity and housing show signs of weakness. 

함의: 미국 기업활동이나 주택지표가 무너지는 가운데 투자자들이 침체없이 물가를 통제하는가에 의구심을 가지고 있으며, 장기와 단기 국채 금리 간 역전으로 암시되는 침체의 알람이 미국에서 여타 선진국으로 확장되고 있음.

Pay them and they will come. That appears to the formula for LIV, the new professional golf tour founded by Greg Norman and financed by Saudi Arabia that is pouring money into the sport like never before and drawing defectors from the long-established PGA tour.

함의: 내 꿈은 'P'ㅕㅇ일에 'G'ㅗㄹ프 치는 'A'저씨.