Bottom-line: 만일 경기침체가 발생한다면 주가는 큰 폭으로 하락해 S&P 500 기준 3,262포인트에 도달할 것, 다만 최근 금융시장환경지표는 7월 고점 이후 급격히 완화되어 참여자들이 중앙은행의 가파른 금리인상에 따른 침체를 덜 걱정하고 있음을 나타냄.
The S&P 500 should fall a lot further to price in a US recession. The US equity index has slid 32% on an average from a peak to a trough during the past eight recessions going back to 1969. Should the benchmark fall by a similar degree from the January high, the gauge would reach 3,262, compared with 4,207 currently. A gauge of financial stress -- analogous to financial conditions -- has fallen to the lowest level in almost four months since peaking in early July. It’s almost as though markets are saying looser financial conditions are needed to avoid a recession while the Fed is working hard to rein in inflation.
The S&P 500 should fall a lot further to price in a US recession. The US equity index has slid 32% on an average from a peak to a trough during the past eight recessions going back to 1969. Should the benchmark fall by a similar degree from the January high, the gauge would reach 3,262, compared with 4,207 currently. A gauge of financial stress -- analogous to financial conditions -- has fallen to the lowest level in almost four months since peaking in early July. It’s almost as though markets are saying looser financial conditions are needed to avoid a recession while the Fed is working hard to rein in inflation.
Bottom-line: He’s Back.
Samsung Electronics Co. Vice Chairman Jay Y. Lee had his right to work at the company restored by South Korea, opening the way for him to formally take the helm of the country’s largest conglomerate roiled by global demand and supply shocks. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has cleared the heir to the country’s biggest company of bribery charges, for which Lee spent 18 months in prison before his release on parole a year ago. Samsung’s shares rose 1.3% in Seoul on the news.
Samsung Electronics Co. Vice Chairman Jay Y. Lee had his right to work at the company restored by South Korea, opening the way for him to formally take the helm of the country’s largest conglomerate roiled by global demand and supply shocks. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has cleared the heir to the country’s biggest company of bribery charges, for which Lee spent 18 months in prison before his release on parole a year ago. Samsung’s shares rose 1.3% in Seoul on the news.
Bottom-line: 약세론자가 주의해야 할 점이 있는데, 목표 변동성이나 위험균등을 목표로 하는 기계적 펀드가 최근 랠리에도 낮은 시장 변동성이 유지됨에 따라 일간 20억~40억 달러 매수가 이어지고 있고, 핵심 라인(100ma)을 상회하여 추세가 형성 될 경우 CTA 펀드 매수도 추가로 이어질 수 있음. CTA의 경우 최대 2,000억 달러 규모 매수 여력이 있음.
The issue is the giant pool of systematic funds that moves in and out of the market based on how turbulent prices are. With peace at hand of late amid a four-week rally, so-called volatility-target funds and similar strategies such as risk parity are buying between $2 billion to $4 billion of stocks per day, according to an estimate by JPMorgan Chase & Co. analyst Kate Gandolfo. “That can last perhaps another 100 days if volatility stays low,” Gandolfo wrote in a note, adding options dealers are currently stuck in “long gamma” positions that leave them needing to go against the prevailing equity trend to maintain a neutral market exposure. “Vol could stay contained/supportive of the market.”. Vol-target funds are not the only force that bears have to worry about. Trend-following funds such as commodity trading advisers have also added fuel to the latest rally by unwinding their short positions while indexes such as the S&P 500 reclaimed key trendlines like the 100-day average. By JPMorgan’s estimate, CTAs could snap up as much as $200 billion of stocks if the market stays buoyant.
The issue is the giant pool of systematic funds that moves in and out of the market based on how turbulent prices are. With peace at hand of late amid a four-week rally, so-called volatility-target funds and similar strategies such as risk parity are buying between $2 billion to $4 billion of stocks per day, according to an estimate by JPMorgan Chase & Co. analyst Kate Gandolfo. “That can last perhaps another 100 days if volatility stays low,” Gandolfo wrote in a note, adding options dealers are currently stuck in “long gamma” positions that leave them needing to go against the prevailing equity trend to maintain a neutral market exposure. “Vol could stay contained/supportive of the market.”. Vol-target funds are not the only force that bears have to worry about. Trend-following funds such as commodity trading advisers have also added fuel to the latest rally by unwinding their short positions while indexes such as the S&P 500 reclaimed key trendlines like the 100-day average. By JPMorgan’s estimate, CTAs could snap up as much as $200 billion of stocks if the market stays buoyant.
Bottom-line: 최근 미국과 유럽 주가지수의 성과차이는 금융환경이 완화적인 미국과 압박이 심해지는 유럽으로 설명할 수 있으며, 성과차이를 좁히기 위해서는 금융환경부터 보다 완화적으로 바뀌어야 할 것임.
Europe’s stock rally may be lagging the US, but its performance looks much more impressive when you see it hasn’t had the tailwinds enjoyed by its equity cousins Stateside. US stocks have been boosted by a massive easing in financial conditions, with a Bloomberg gauge of such rebounding sharply from its early July low. Conversely, European financial conditions continue to tighten, with the region’s equivalent index around levels last seen a decade ago -- barring a brief period during the peak pandemic fears in 2020. That kind of price action must be respected, but it’s still hard to see much further upside if financial conditions continue to tighten -- especially as we get through the summer and traders start to focus on the year end.
Europe’s stock rally may be lagging the US, but its performance looks much more impressive when you see it hasn’t had the tailwinds enjoyed by its equity cousins Stateside. US stocks have been boosted by a massive easing in financial conditions, with a Bloomberg gauge of such rebounding sharply from its early July low. Conversely, European financial conditions continue to tighten, with the region’s equivalent index around levels last seen a decade ago -- barring a brief period during the peak pandemic fears in 2020. That kind of price action must be respected, but it’s still hard to see much further upside if financial conditions continue to tighten -- especially as we get through the summer and traders start to focus on the year end.
Three of China’s largest state-owned companies announced plans to delist from US exchanges as the two countries struggle to come to an agreement allowing American regulators to inspect audits of Chinese businesses. China Life Insurance Co., PetroChina Co. and China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. all disclosed their intentions to delist in statements published in quick succession on Friday.
Bottom-line: 여러 악조건 속에서 4주 연속 상승한 주가지수에 우려가 깊다면 스마트 머니의 움직임을 눈여겨 볼 필요가 있음. 이들의 흐름을 추적하는 지수가 2년래 최고치까지 상승했기 때문임.
Just like old times. That’s what it must seem like with the S&P 500 Index up about 15% since mid-June and poised for its fourth consecutive weekly gain, its longest winning streak of the year. Those who question the durability of this rally, given the slowdown in the economy and a Federal Reserve that has doubled down on its plan to keep raising interest rates, can take comfort in one key metric: the smart money. That can be seen in the Smart Money Flow Index, which measures action in the narrower Dow Jones Industrial Average during the first half-hour and the last hour of trading. The thinking is that the first 30 minutes represent emotional buying, driven by greed and fear of the crowd based on good and bad news as well as a lot of buying on market orders and short covering. The “smart money” institutional investors, though, wait until the end of trading to place big bets when there is less “noise.”. That gauge has risen to its highest level in two years, when animal spirits ruled Wall Street and the S&P 500 was surpassing its pre-pandemic highs, sparking one of the most powerful bull markets in history. Few are anticipating a repeat performance, but the latest trading patterns should provide some confidence that the nasty sell-off in the first half of the year, which pushed stocks into a bear market, may be over.
Just like old times. That’s what it must seem like with the S&P 500 Index up about 15% since mid-June and poised for its fourth consecutive weekly gain, its longest winning streak of the year. Those who question the durability of this rally, given the slowdown in the economy and a Federal Reserve that has doubled down on its plan to keep raising interest rates, can take comfort in one key metric: the smart money. That can be seen in the Smart Money Flow Index, which measures action in the narrower Dow Jones Industrial Average during the first half-hour and the last hour of trading. The thinking is that the first 30 minutes represent emotional buying, driven by greed and fear of the crowd based on good and bad news as well as a lot of buying on market orders and short covering. The “smart money” institutional investors, though, wait until the end of trading to place big bets when there is less “noise.”. That gauge has risen to its highest level in two years, when animal spirits ruled Wall Street and the S&P 500 was surpassing its pre-pandemic highs, sparking one of the most powerful bull markets in history. Few are anticipating a repeat performance, but the latest trading patterns should provide some confidence that the nasty sell-off in the first half of the year, which pushed stocks into a bear market, may be over.
Bottom-line: 이더리움의 업그레이드가 성공적일 수 있단 기대에 큰 폭 상승했고, 선물 및 옵션도 상방으로 쏠려있지만, 업그레이드 시점 이후 구조는 하방을 방어하는 풋옵션 계약들로 이뤄져 전형적인 '뉴스에 팔라' 이벤트 가능성이 있음.
Ether is surging in anticipation of a groundbreaking software upgrade to its blockchain. Sophisticated traders are positioning for the rally to continue until that happens -- and then for the cryptocurrency to plummet afterward. Speculators in derivatives markets are scooping up call options to bet on an Ether advance into September, when the upgrade is supposed to happen. Yet futures and options are suggesting they’re expecting the price to drop after the event in what analysts at Glassnode say could be a “sell-the-news”-type of situation. September call options “dwarf” put options, with traders waging Ether’s price could rise to around $2,200 from its current $1,800 level, according to Deribit data compiled by Glassnode. There’s even significant open interest out to $5,000. But for the month after the update, there’s little demand for calls and greater demand for downside protection, suggesting that the traders are hedging or speculating on downside risk then, said Glassnode analysts.
Ether is surging in anticipation of a groundbreaking software upgrade to its blockchain. Sophisticated traders are positioning for the rally to continue until that happens -- and then for the cryptocurrency to plummet afterward. Speculators in derivatives markets are scooping up call options to bet on an Ether advance into September, when the upgrade is supposed to happen. Yet futures and options are suggesting they’re expecting the price to drop after the event in what analysts at Glassnode say could be a “sell-the-news”-type of situation. September call options “dwarf” put options, with traders waging Ether’s price could rise to around $2,200 from its current $1,800 level, according to Deribit data compiled by Glassnode. There’s even significant open interest out to $5,000. But for the month after the update, there’s little demand for calls and greater demand for downside protection, suggesting that the traders are hedging or speculating on downside risk then, said Glassnode analysts.
High income consumers, who generate a disproportionate share of spending, registered large declines in both their current personal finances as well as buying conditions for durables.
Bottom-line: 미시간대 소비지수에서 인플레이션 항목이 예상치를 상회하며 주가는 상승이 멈춤.
The S&P 500 held gains, but retreated a bit, after preliminary August UMich consumer sentiment beat estimates, while 5-to-10 year inflation expectations were higher than anticipated.
The S&P 500 held gains, but retreated a bit, after preliminary August UMich consumer sentiment beat estimates, while 5-to-10 year inflation expectations were higher than anticipated.
Bottom-line: 이번 지표는 중앙은행이 인플레이션에 대해 안심할 수 없는 이유를 제공했으며, 9월 75bp 인상에 대한 가능성을 다시 제공함.
Whoops. So much for lower gas prices taking inflation expectations lower. The UMich 5-10 year median inflation expectation unexpectedly rose back to 3%, close to the cyclical high. The less-watched 5-10 year mean expectation, meanwhile, rose from 3.4% to 4.0% -- back to its peak. Despite this, confidence improved to 55.1, which was the result of a rise in expectations from 47.3 to 54.9. The indicator on “bad time to buy large durables because of high prices” actually rose to a new peak of 50. This is not a report that will comfort the Fed, and while it won’t swing the balance of risk for September to 75 bps, it does suggest that declaring victory over inflation is decidedly premature.
Whoops. So much for lower gas prices taking inflation expectations lower. The UMich 5-10 year median inflation expectation unexpectedly rose back to 3%, close to the cyclical high. The less-watched 5-10 year mean expectation, meanwhile, rose from 3.4% to 4.0% -- back to its peak. Despite this, confidence improved to 55.1, which was the result of a rise in expectations from 47.3 to 54.9. The indicator on “bad time to buy large durables because of high prices” actually rose to a new peak of 50. This is not a report that will comfort the Fed, and while it won’t swing the balance of risk for September to 75 bps, it does suggest that declaring victory over inflation is decidedly premature.
Chinese officials are making plans for President Xi Jinping to visit Southeast Asia and meet face-to-face with President Biden in November, Dow Jones reports citing people familiar with the preparations.
Bottom-line: 12개월래 경기침체 확률이 50%까지 상승하면서 중앙은행의 금리인상 속도를 늦출 것으로 기대되며 주식시장에는 호재로 작용하고 있음.
Recession Odds Jump to 50% and That’ll Be Good for Stock. tocks can keep rising as the odds of a slowdown grow. The probability of a recession in the next 12 months jumped to 50% from 40%, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. This fits with the narrative that a slowing economy will temper the pace of the Fed rate hikes. The result, ironically, is that equities can still gain as the economic outlook deteriorates. At the rate things are going, the S&P 500 will soon be down just 10% for this year. Slowing growth will also help long bonds by contributing to slower inflation. The result is the inversion of the yield curve and the sliding term premium. The Fed’s Mary Daly reiterated that her base case is for a half-point hike at the meeting next month, following back-to-back 75-bp hikes in June and July, but said she has an “open mind” about another large increase being necessary. Swaps show traders are leaning toward 50 bps.
Recession Odds Jump to 50% and That’ll Be Good for Stock. tocks can keep rising as the odds of a slowdown grow. The probability of a recession in the next 12 months jumped to 50% from 40%, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. This fits with the narrative that a slowing economy will temper the pace of the Fed rate hikes. The result, ironically, is that equities can still gain as the economic outlook deteriorates. At the rate things are going, the S&P 500 will soon be down just 10% for this year. Slowing growth will also help long bonds by contributing to slower inflation. The result is the inversion of the yield curve and the sliding term premium. The Fed’s Mary Daly reiterated that her base case is for a half-point hike at the meeting next month, following back-to-back 75-bp hikes in June and July, but said she has an “open mind” about another large increase being necessary. Swaps show traders are leaning toward 50 bps.