Bottom-line: 고용지표가 75bp 금리인상 확률을 높였지만, 반대로 인플레이션 데이터로 인해 50bp 금리인상 확률에 다시 가까워지는 등 채권시장은 데이터에 기반한 조정을 지속하고 있음. 다음 주 소매판매가 인플레이션에 어떤 영향을 받았는지, 잭슨홀 미팅 등이 계속적으로 미세조정을 일으킬 것임.
Bond investors hoping for a summer lull have a problem: Next week could ratchet up market volatility at a time when wagers on the Federal Reserve’s next decision are near-evenly split. There’s a standoff resulting from conflicting US economic data: strength in hiring and wage growth on the one hand, and the first glimmer of moderation in inflation from generational highs on the other. As recently as Aug. 5, another three-quarter point rate increase was deemed likelier based on strong jobs data. This week, a smaller half-point move came back into favor after inflation decelerated. To avoid a potentially disorderly reaction to the Fed’s decision on Sept. 21, the market needs to reach a consensus -- and adjust pricing accordingly -- based on the latest economic data and comments by Fed officials. Next week, retail sales data may bring some clarity, revealing the extent to which ebbing inflation is helping consumers. The following week’s annual Fed confab in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, might also be decisive. “A month and a half to the September meeting is an eternity for the bond market,” said Gregory Faranello, head of US rates trading and strategy for AmeriVet Securities. The debate over 50 versus 75 basis points “will continue as the Fed is following the data,” and that will “predominantly play out in the front-end.”
Bond investors hoping for a summer lull have a problem: Next week could ratchet up market volatility at a time when wagers on the Federal Reserve’s next decision are near-evenly split. There’s a standoff resulting from conflicting US economic data: strength in hiring and wage growth on the one hand, and the first glimmer of moderation in inflation from generational highs on the other. As recently as Aug. 5, another three-quarter point rate increase was deemed likelier based on strong jobs data. This week, a smaller half-point move came back into favor after inflation decelerated. To avoid a potentially disorderly reaction to the Fed’s decision on Sept. 21, the market needs to reach a consensus -- and adjust pricing accordingly -- based on the latest economic data and comments by Fed officials. Next week, retail sales data may bring some clarity, revealing the extent to which ebbing inflation is helping consumers. The following week’s annual Fed confab in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, might also be decisive. “A month and a half to the September meeting is an eternity for the bond market,” said Gregory Faranello, head of US rates trading and strategy for AmeriVet Securities. The debate over 50 versus 75 basis points “will continue as the Fed is following the data,” and that will “predominantly play out in the front-end.”
Bottom-line: 중국의 소매판매, 투자, 산업생산 모두 부진하면서 주가지수가 하락 반전, 중국 지표 발표 전 부양책은 오히려 악화 된 데이터에 경계감을 심었을 뿐이며, 국채 수익률 또한 역전폭이 확대되며 미국 중앙은행의 금리인상이 침체로 몰아갈 것에 대한 우려 또한 심해지고 있음.
U.S. equity-index futures slipped, stocks posted tepid gains and commodities from oil to iron ore fell as disappointing data from China further clouded the outlook for the global economy. Contracts on both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were lower, suggesting a four-week stocks rally may stall. Europe’s equity benchmark advanced about 0.3%, as corporate news buoyed healthcare stocks while miners and carmakers declined. An Asian share index added 0.1%. Treasury yields ticked higher and the bond curve remained deeply inverted, pointing to worries that the Federal Reserve’s campaign of monetary tightening against high inflation will spark a US recession. The dollar gained. Data showed China’s July retail sales, investment and industrial output missed economists’ estimates. The central bank had earlier cut borrowing costs. China’s bond yields and the offshore yuan fell, while its bourses wavered.
U.S. equity-index futures slipped, stocks posted tepid gains and commodities from oil to iron ore fell as disappointing data from China further clouded the outlook for the global economy. Contracts on both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were lower, suggesting a four-week stocks rally may stall. Europe’s equity benchmark advanced about 0.3%, as corporate news buoyed healthcare stocks while miners and carmakers declined. An Asian share index added 0.1%. Treasury yields ticked higher and the bond curve remained deeply inverted, pointing to worries that the Federal Reserve’s campaign of monetary tightening against high inflation will spark a US recession. The dollar gained. Data showed China’s July retail sales, investment and industrial output missed economists’ estimates. The central bank had earlier cut borrowing costs. China’s bond yields and the offshore yuan fell, while its bourses wavered.
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Bottom-line: 월스트리트의 전략가들조차 현재 주식시장 랠리에 대해 의견이 나뉘는데, 약세론을 대표하는 모건스탠리는 기업 이익 성장 둔화와 높은 금리로 인해 다시 하락할 것, 제이피모건은 기술주 중심으로 연말까지 +20% 이상 랠리를 이어갈 것으로 예상함.
JPMorgan Says the Stock Rally Has Legs. Morgan Stanley Disagrees. Top Wall Street strategists are divided on whether the US stock market is poised to extend its longest winning streak of the year -- or slip back after another false dawn. Morgan Stanley strategists said in a note Monday that the sharp rally since June is just a pause in the bear market, predicting that share prices will slide in the second half of the year as profits weaken, interest rates keep rising and the economy slows. But rivals at JPMorgan Chase & Co. said the rally -- which has pushed up the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index by over 20% -- could run through the end of the year.
JPMorgan Says the Stock Rally Has Legs. Morgan Stanley Disagrees. Top Wall Street strategists are divided on whether the US stock market is poised to extend its longest winning streak of the year -- or slip back after another false dawn. Morgan Stanley strategists said in a note Monday that the sharp rally since June is just a pause in the bear market, predicting that share prices will slide in the second half of the year as profits weaken, interest rates keep rising and the economy slows. But rivals at JPMorgan Chase & Co. said the rally -- which has pushed up the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index by over 20% -- could run through the end of the year.
Bottom-line: 엠파이어 제조업 지수가 기록적인 쇼크로 발표, 특히 수요를 알 수 있는 주문 및 선적이 부진했음.
A gauge of New York state manufacturing activity plunged by the second-most in data back to 2001, with sharp declines in orders and shipments that indicate an abrupt downturn in demand. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s August general business conditions index slumped more than 42 points to minus 31.3, with the drop just behind that seen in April 2020, a report showed Monday. A reading below zero indicates contraction, and the figure was far weaker than the most downbeat forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
A gauge of New York state manufacturing activity plunged by the second-most in data back to 2001, with sharp declines in orders and shipments that indicate an abrupt downturn in demand. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s August general business conditions index slumped more than 42 points to minus 31.3, with the drop just behind that seen in April 2020, a report showed Monday. A reading below zero indicates contraction, and the figure was far weaker than the most downbeat forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
Bottom-line: Digesting.
Stocks gained, with megacaps catching bids as investors digested weak US and China data. Treasuries and the dollar gained, while commodities tumbled. The S&P 500 gained 0.4%, with the Nasdaq outperforming. Asian equity futures are up.
Stocks gained, with megacaps catching bids as investors digested weak US and China data. Treasuries and the dollar gained, while commodities tumbled. The S&P 500 gained 0.4%, with the Nasdaq outperforming. Asian equity futures are up.
Bottom-line: 전일 마감 된 13F 보고를 통해 알 수 있는 점은 대부분의 기관이 주식을 매수하기보다 매도했다는 것이며, 특히 대형 기관들이 2분기 지수 하락 구간에서 피난처를 선택했다는 것임. 마이클 버리의 경우 11개의 주식 매수 포지션을 모두 청산하고 1개의 주식만 신규로 보유함. 다만, 대부분 하버드가 페이스북을 매도하고 ASML을 매수한 것처럼, 주식 비중을 크게 줄이는 중에도 선별적으로 신규 포지션을 늘리는 특징도 보임.
Some of the biggest US institutional investors, from Tiger Global Management to Yale University’s endowment, were busy dumping stocks from their portfolios in the second quarter as markets cratered. Chase Coleman’s Tiger Global, whose hedge fund plunged 50% through the first half of the year, picked up where it left off in the first quarter, as it continued to reduce risk. The firm’s aggregate exposure to stocks -- which includes share sales and declining values -- dropped by about 55% to $11.8 billion. That’s down from $46 billion at the end of 2021. Monday was the deadline for hedge funds and thousands of other institutional investors, including pensions and endowments, to report certain US equity holdings to the Securities and Exchange Commission through quarterly 13F filings. Yale was among several university endowments that joined the flight to safety. The school in New Haven, Connecticut, liquidated six long positions, leaving it with just two: a Vanguard emerging-markets ETF and an iShares ETF that tracks the S&P 500. Princeton University in New Jersey sharply reduced its stake in mining company Lithium Americas Corp., one of just three stocks it owns. Harvard, the richest US college, pared its stake in Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc. while acquiring one new position, chipmaker ASML Holding NV. Michael Burry, who rose to prominence after a winning wager against mortgages in the run-up to the 2008 financial crisis, has recently warned that a similar crash could be looming for markets. His Scion Asset Management exited 11 long positions. His lone purchase in the quarter was a $3.3 million stake in private-prison operator Geo Group Inc. While many money managers did more selling than buying, they still took advantage of the market swoon to add to a few beaten-down names.
Some of the biggest US institutional investors, from Tiger Global Management to Yale University’s endowment, were busy dumping stocks from their portfolios in the second quarter as markets cratered. Chase Coleman’s Tiger Global, whose hedge fund plunged 50% through the first half of the year, picked up where it left off in the first quarter, as it continued to reduce risk. The firm’s aggregate exposure to stocks -- which includes share sales and declining values -- dropped by about 55% to $11.8 billion. That’s down from $46 billion at the end of 2021. Monday was the deadline for hedge funds and thousands of other institutional investors, including pensions and endowments, to report certain US equity holdings to the Securities and Exchange Commission through quarterly 13F filings. Yale was among several university endowments that joined the flight to safety. The school in New Haven, Connecticut, liquidated six long positions, leaving it with just two: a Vanguard emerging-markets ETF and an iShares ETF that tracks the S&P 500. Princeton University in New Jersey sharply reduced its stake in mining company Lithium Americas Corp., one of just three stocks it owns. Harvard, the richest US college, pared its stake in Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc. while acquiring one new position, chipmaker ASML Holding NV. Michael Burry, who rose to prominence after a winning wager against mortgages in the run-up to the 2008 financial crisis, has recently warned that a similar crash could be looming for markets. His Scion Asset Management exited 11 long positions. His lone purchase in the quarter was a $3.3 million stake in private-prison operator Geo Group Inc. While many money managers did more selling than buying, they still took advantage of the market swoon to add to a few beaten-down names.
Bottom-line: 멘토와 멘티의 상반 된 시장 대응이 흥미로운데, 멘토인 조지 소로스가 2분기에 아마존, 구글, 세일즈포스 및 테슬라(포트폴리오 내 0.4% 비중)에 대한 포지션을 구축한데 반해, 멘티인 스탠리 드러켄밀러는 1분기 구글 매도에 이어 2분기엔 아마존을 전량 매각하고 마이크로소프트 또한 비중을 축소함.
Stanley Druckenmiller’s family office took a different approach than the investment firm of his former mentor, George Soros, as US stocks entered a bear market and reached their lows of 2022. Druckenmiller’s Duquesne Family Office sold its entire $199 million position in Amazon.com Inc. in the three months through June, while scaling back its stake in Microsoft Corp., according to the firm’s 13F filing Monday. Offloading big tech was a theme for the legendary investor in the first quarter, too, when the firm dumped about $274 million of Alphabet Inc. shares. Soros Fund Management, by contrast, bolstered its stakes in Amazon, Salesforce Inc. and Alphabet in the second quarter, with all three ranking among its top 10 holdings as of the end of June. The firm also added a new $20 million position in Elon Musk’s Tesla Inc., though that represents only about 0.4% of Soros’s $4.6 billion US equities portfolio.
Stanley Druckenmiller’s family office took a different approach than the investment firm of his former mentor, George Soros, as US stocks entered a bear market and reached their lows of 2022. Druckenmiller’s Duquesne Family Office sold its entire $199 million position in Amazon.com Inc. in the three months through June, while scaling back its stake in Microsoft Corp., according to the firm’s 13F filing Monday. Offloading big tech was a theme for the legendary investor in the first quarter, too, when the firm dumped about $274 million of Alphabet Inc. shares. Soros Fund Management, by contrast, bolstered its stakes in Amazon, Salesforce Inc. and Alphabet in the second quarter, with all three ranking among its top 10 holdings as of the end of June. The firm also added a new $20 million position in Elon Musk’s Tesla Inc., though that represents only about 0.4% of Soros’s $4.6 billion US equities portfolio.
Bottom-line: 대부분의 투자자들이 금리인상과 성장률 둔화를 빌미로 주식비중(특히 기술주)을 줄이는 동안 체이스 콜먼 3세와 조지 소로스는 해당 업종의 비중을 확대했고, 공시를 토대로 보면 매입 시점 이후 기술주 중심의 시장 랠리가 시작됐음.
Investment firms Tiger Global Management LLC and Soros Fund Management piled into some of the biggest technology companies weeks before big tech spiked on optimism the Federal Reserve’s tightening won’t be as aggressive as previously thought, the latest 13F filings show. Tiger Global spent $241 million to buy 2.2 million of Alphabet Inc.’s shares, the filing shows, in what was one of only a handful of new positions the firm established in the three months through June. George Soros’s fund bolstered its stakes in Alphabet, Amazon.com Inc., among other large tech companies. The move by Tiger Global, Soros and a few other investment firms stands in contrast with their broader peers that cut exposure in the sector at a time when concern about rising interest rates and slowing growth sent their shares into a nosedive. On aggregate, investment firms decreased tech holdings by 1.6% in the second quarter, Bloomberg’s analysis of 13F filings show. Since the mid-June nadir, tech stocks have enjoyed the second-biggest rally among the S&P 500’s industry groups.
Investment firms Tiger Global Management LLC and Soros Fund Management piled into some of the biggest technology companies weeks before big tech spiked on optimism the Federal Reserve’s tightening won’t be as aggressive as previously thought, the latest 13F filings show. Tiger Global spent $241 million to buy 2.2 million of Alphabet Inc.’s shares, the filing shows, in what was one of only a handful of new positions the firm established in the three months through June. George Soros’s fund bolstered its stakes in Alphabet, Amazon.com Inc., among other large tech companies. The move by Tiger Global, Soros and a few other investment firms stands in contrast with their broader peers that cut exposure in the sector at a time when concern about rising interest rates and slowing growth sent their shares into a nosedive. On aggregate, investment firms decreased tech holdings by 1.6% in the second quarter, Bloomberg’s analysis of 13F filings show. Since the mid-June nadir, tech stocks have enjoyed the second-biggest rally among the S&P 500’s industry groups.
Hedge fund Elliott Management has dumped almost all of its position in Japan’s SoftBank, the Financial Times reports, citing unidentified people familiar with the trade.
Bottom-line: 중앙은행의 통화정책에 따른 경기둔화, 기업 이익률 축소로 파산위험과 실직이 증가하고, 상장사 중 20%가 영업이익으로 이자를 감당하지 못함. 이런 좀비 기업들은 특히 기술, 소프트웨어, 헬스케어에 집중되어 이들의 저조한 수익률은 글로벌 금융위기 이후 최악을 기록 중임.
Lingering Zombie Risks Amplified as Fed Hikes Set to Go On. A combination of slowing growth induced by the Fed’s aggressive tightening and dwindling margins appears set to raise the risk of bankruptcies and job losses in the US. More than a fifth of America’s largest publicly-traded companies failed to cover interest expenses with their operating income, based on their latest quarterly results. The highest concentration of these so-called zombie companies are found in technology, communications and health care. The underperformance of such stocks this year is the worst since the 2008-09 global financial crisis.
Lingering Zombie Risks Amplified as Fed Hikes Set to Go On. A combination of slowing growth induced by the Fed’s aggressive tightening and dwindling margins appears set to raise the risk of bankruptcies and job losses in the US. More than a fifth of America’s largest publicly-traded companies failed to cover interest expenses with their operating income, based on their latest quarterly results. The highest concentration of these so-called zombie companies are found in technology, communications and health care. The underperformance of such stocks this year is the worst since the 2008-09 global financial crisis.
Bottom-line: 잭슨홀 미팅에서 중앙은행이 통제해야 할 것을 놓치는 비용이 시장의 안정보다 더욱 크다는 것을 참여자들에게 설득시킨다면, 경제지표 악재가 호재로 받아들여지는 패턴이 지속되기 어려울 것임.
In the short term, cyclical disappointment tends to cause a positive equity market reaction. However, if the Fed can believably persuade the markets that they are insensitive to this, the weakness will start to eat into stocks. While Fed speakers and the minutes this week could contribute to this, Jackson Hole could be the definitive forum at which Powell should demonstrate resolve. It’s possible that his keynote address will focus on: inflation, the risk of the wage price spiral, and the costs of inflation expectations getting out of hand (h/t to Yelena Shulyatyeva). If he can convince markets that these risks far exceeding the costs of bumpy landing, then markets will become less enamored of weak economic data.
In the short term, cyclical disappointment tends to cause a positive equity market reaction. However, if the Fed can believably persuade the markets that they are insensitive to this, the weakness will start to eat into stocks. While Fed speakers and the minutes this week could contribute to this, Jackson Hole could be the definitive forum at which Powell should demonstrate resolve. It’s possible that his keynote address will focus on: inflation, the risk of the wage price spiral, and the costs of inflation expectations getting out of hand (h/t to Yelena Shulyatyeva). If he can convince markets that these risks far exceeding the costs of bumpy landing, then markets will become less enamored of weak economic data.
Bottom-line: 앤트 그룹을 보유한 투자사들이 평가 가치를 무참하게 할인하여 재평가 중임.
Fintech giant Ant Group Co.’s valuation was trimmed again by global investors who bought private shares ahead of its suspended initial public offering.
Boston-based Fidelity Investments cut its estimate for Ant to $70 billion at the end of May, according to Bloomberg calculations based on filings. That’s down from $78 billion in June last year, and $235 billion just before Ant’s IPO was torpedoed by regulators in November 2020. BlackRock Inc. lowered the value to $151 billion as of March from $174 billion, while T. Rowe Price Group Inc. trimmed it to $112 billion as of May, compared with $189 billion last year. The woes for Ant and its investors are adding up. The company’s profit fell 17% for the March quarter amid an ongoing yearslong regulatory overhaul. The $150 billion price tag marks an important threshold since investors including Warburg Pincus, Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, Silver Lake and Temasek Holdings Pte were said to have invested in Ant at that price four years ago.
Fintech giant Ant Group Co.’s valuation was trimmed again by global investors who bought private shares ahead of its suspended initial public offering.
Boston-based Fidelity Investments cut its estimate for Ant to $70 billion at the end of May, according to Bloomberg calculations based on filings. That’s down from $78 billion in June last year, and $235 billion just before Ant’s IPO was torpedoed by regulators in November 2020. BlackRock Inc. lowered the value to $151 billion as of March from $174 billion, while T. Rowe Price Group Inc. trimmed it to $112 billion as of May, compared with $189 billion last year. The woes for Ant and its investors are adding up. The company’s profit fell 17% for the March quarter amid an ongoing yearslong regulatory overhaul. The $150 billion price tag marks an important threshold since investors including Warburg Pincus, Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, Silver Lake and Temasek Holdings Pte were said to have invested in Ant at that price four years ago.
Bottom-line: 넷플릭스는 5월 저점에서 새로운 성장동력 공표, 예상을 상회하는 실적, 흥행을 기록한 시리즈로 50% 가까이 상승하며 9억 9,600만달러에 달하는 극단적인 공매도 포지션을 태워버림.
Netflix Burns Shorts as ‘Extreme’ Bearishness Ebbs. Investors who bet against Netflix Inc. in recent months might now be licking their wounds. Shares of the streaming giant have surged 50% from their May low, buoyed by the promise of new features to revive growth, better-than-expected quarterly results and the runaway success of the latest installment of sci-fi thriller “Stranger Things.”. That’s hurting short sellers, who borrow shares and sell them, hoping to buy them back at a lower price to profit from the difference. Since mid-May, they have seen $996 million in mark-to-market losses, according to S3 Partners. “Bearishness was extreme,” said Neil Campling, head of technology, media and telecom research at Mirabaud Securities. “The stock got to extreme oversold levels, and traded at a massive discount to trend valuation, to peers, and to history.”
Netflix Burns Shorts as ‘Extreme’ Bearishness Ebbs. Investors who bet against Netflix Inc. in recent months might now be licking their wounds. Shares of the streaming giant have surged 50% from their May low, buoyed by the promise of new features to revive growth, better-than-expected quarterly results and the runaway success of the latest installment of sci-fi thriller “Stranger Things.”. That’s hurting short sellers, who borrow shares and sell them, hoping to buy them back at a lower price to profit from the difference. Since mid-May, they have seen $996 million in mark-to-market losses, according to S3 Partners. “Bearishness was extreme,” said Neil Campling, head of technology, media and telecom research at Mirabaud Securities. “The stock got to extreme oversold levels, and traded at a massive discount to trend valuation, to peers, and to history.”