Bottom-line: 10.1%라는 놀라운 물가 발표 이후 트레이더들은 영국 중앙은행이 내년까지 추가로 200bp 금리인상을 할 것에 베팅 함.
Traders Bet on Two Percentage Points More of BOE Rate Hikes. Traders are betting on two percentage points more of Bank of England rate hikes after UK inflation data beat expectations.
Money markets are pricing over 200 basis points of tightening by May next year, which would take the key rate from 1.75% to 3.75%. UK inflation accelerated more than expected last month to the highest in 40 years, intensifying a squeeze on consumers and adding to pressure for action from the government and BOE.
Traders Bet on Two Percentage Points More of BOE Rate Hikes. Traders are betting on two percentage points more of Bank of England rate hikes after UK inflation data beat expectations.
Money markets are pricing over 200 basis points of tightening by May next year, which would take the key rate from 1.75% to 3.75%. UK inflation accelerated more than expected last month to the highest in 40 years, intensifying a squeeze on consumers and adding to pressure for action from the government and BOE.
Bottom-line: You joking?
Elon Musk tweeted that he was buying Manchester United before saying four and a half hours later he was kidding, adding it was part of a long-running joke on the platform. The New York-listed club's shares jumped 17% in early trading before paring most gains. Musk has a long track record of tweeting in jest, but regulators may be less amused.
Elon Musk tweeted that he was buying Manchester United before saying four and a half hours later he was kidding, adding it was part of a long-running joke on the platform. The New York-listed club's shares jumped 17% in early trading before paring most gains. Musk has a long track record of tweeting in jest, but regulators may be less amused.
Bottom-line: 근래 우리는 국채 수익률과 가치주가 반대의 성과를 보인다고 굳게 믿었고, 때문에 금리가 상승할 때 성장주 대비 가치주의 강세를 당연스럽게 이해함. 반대로 성장주의 경우 장기 채권 듀레이션 개념으로 금리가 하락할 때 더 높은 베타로 상승하면서 그 프리미엄을 받았음. 하지만 이는 10년이라는 짧은 기간을 벗어나면 전혀 결속력이 없는 근거가 되어버림. 특히 성장주의 경우 듀레이션 개념보다 유니콘의 개념을 적용하는게 맞는데, 장기적으로 폭발적인 성장을 이룰 것이란 기대가 가장 강한 프리미엄 요인이었음.
For the last few years, it’s certainly been the case that value has tended to beat growth when yields are rising, and underperform growth when yields are falling. For more than a decade, we’ve been accustomed to low bond yields and underperforming value stocks. But it hasn’t always been this way, and Cliff Asness, the legendary founder of AQR Capital Management, has just published a paper designed to show that the recent correlation is a coincidence, or at best a phenomenon that will soon pass. Over a much longer time scale, the past 90 years, correlation of the “value” factor as defined by the finance professors Eugene Fama and Kenneth French with the 10-year Treasury yield has been highly variable and never particularly strong. It is true to say that it appears to have been greatest, and most consistent, in the last decade or so. Asness accepts that the perception is so strong at present that lower rates would likely mean continued dominance for growth. But does the hypothesis that value and growth are being driven by rates and duration really justify paying up hugely for growth stocks? Asness argues that it doesn’t, and that the whole idea rests on the notion that all growth stocks are in fact more like unicorns, whose earnings will explode into the future.
For the last few years, it’s certainly been the case that value has tended to beat growth when yields are rising, and underperform growth when yields are falling. For more than a decade, we’ve been accustomed to low bond yields and underperforming value stocks. But it hasn’t always been this way, and Cliff Asness, the legendary founder of AQR Capital Management, has just published a paper designed to show that the recent correlation is a coincidence, or at best a phenomenon that will soon pass. Over a much longer time scale, the past 90 years, correlation of the “value” factor as defined by the finance professors Eugene Fama and Kenneth French with the 10-year Treasury yield has been highly variable and never particularly strong. It is true to say that it appears to have been greatest, and most consistent, in the last decade or so. Asness accepts that the perception is so strong at present that lower rates would likely mean continued dominance for growth. But does the hypothesis that value and growth are being driven by rates and duration really justify paying up hugely for growth stocks? Asness argues that it doesn’t, and that the whole idea rests on the notion that all growth stocks are in fact more like unicorns, whose earnings will explode into the future.
Bottom-line: 메릴린치 계량분석팀에서 제시하는 1950년 이후 현재까지 가장 완벽한 시장 저점을 확인해준 '20'의 법칙은 S&P 500의 주가수익비율과 소비자물가를 합친 숫자가 '20'에 도달할 때가 진정한 바닥이었다는 것임. 최근 6월 저점에 이 숫자는 27을 기록했음. '20'의 법칙이 완성되려면 S&P 500 지수가 2,500포인트까지 하락하거나, 물가가 0%가 되거나, 또는 현재 주당순이익 추정치를 +50% 상회하는 실적이 뒷받침되야 함.
BofA Quants Say a Winning Stock Signal Is Bad Omen for Bull. Bank of America Corp.’s quant analysts say a US stock market indicator with a perfect track record has bad news for bulls: Equity prices haven’t bottomed out yet. The measure looks at the S&P 500 Index’s trailing price-to-earnings ratio in combination with US consumer inflation. Every market trough since the 1950s saw the gauge fall below 20. But during the waves of selling that battered markets this year, it only got as low as 27. “One signpost with a perfect track record is the Rule of 20,” Bank of America’s equity and quant strategists led by Savita Subramanian wrote in a note. They add that unless inflation goes to zero or the S&P 500 falls to 2500 points, an earnings surprise of 50% would be required to push the gauge low enough to signal a market bottom -- something they said seems “unachievable.”
BofA Quants Say a Winning Stock Signal Is Bad Omen for Bull. Bank of America Corp.’s quant analysts say a US stock market indicator with a perfect track record has bad news for bulls: Equity prices haven’t bottomed out yet. The measure looks at the S&P 500 Index’s trailing price-to-earnings ratio in combination with US consumer inflation. Every market trough since the 1950s saw the gauge fall below 20. But during the waves of selling that battered markets this year, it only got as low as 27. “One signpost with a perfect track record is the Rule of 20,” Bank of America’s equity and quant strategists led by Savita Subramanian wrote in a note. They add that unless inflation goes to zero or the S&P 500 falls to 2500 points, an earnings surprise of 50% would be required to push the gauge low enough to signal a market bottom -- something they said seems “unachievable.”
Bottom-line: 영국 물가로부터 시작 된 인플레이션 우려가 결국 중앙은행이 경제성장보다 인플레이션에 더 집중할 것이란 불안감으로 회귀하게 만듬.
Yet, continuing rate hikes and the likelihood of a recession in the world’s largest economy are weighing on sentiment. Meanwhile, concern is growing that Fed rate setters will remain focused on the fight against inflation rather than supporting growth.
Yet, continuing rate hikes and the likelihood of a recession in the world’s largest economy are weighing on sentiment. Meanwhile, concern is growing that Fed rate setters will remain focused on the fight against inflation rather than supporting growth.
Crude oil extended gains after DOE inventory data showed crude inventories had a huge draw of over 7 million barrels. Expectations were for a drop of just 100,000 barrels. Crude was also bolstered as exports rose to a record as Europe raced to replace Russian oil.
Bottom-line: 금일 7월 14일 이후 가장 큰 사이즈의 알고리즘 매도가 발생한 것으로 확인됨. 알고리즘 트레이딩은 그들끼리 트리거로 상호작용과 증폭을 거치는 경향이 있어 주가가 이동평균선 저항에 있고 금요일 옵션 만기일을 두고 추가 하락 가능성 있음.
Jumbo-Sized Sell Programs Roll Through Stocks. Stocks have seen some of the heaviest selling from algos in more than a month today. More pressure from robots could extend the losses. The largest sell program of the day took place on the open. It was a 1891-name sell program, the largest since July 14. And a few others sized at more than 1500-names materialized shortly after the London close. Programs of that size typically are not singular events. They often feed upon themselves. With stock gains likely to be hard fought from here and an option expiration Friday, more selling from computer-generated programs could gather steam and exaggerate equity prices to the downside.
Jumbo-Sized Sell Programs Roll Through Stocks. Stocks have seen some of the heaviest selling from algos in more than a month today. More pressure from robots could extend the losses. The largest sell program of the day took place on the open. It was a 1891-name sell program, the largest since July 14. And a few others sized at more than 1500-names materialized shortly after the London close. Programs of that size typically are not singular events. They often feed upon themselves. With stock gains likely to be hard fought from here and an option expiration Friday, more selling from computer-generated programs could gather steam and exaggerate equity prices to the downside.
Bottom-line: 중앙은행은 경제를 둔화시키더라도 핵심목표는 여전히 인플레이션을 통제하는 것이며, 어쩌면 필요 이상으로 금리를 더 높게 올릴 위험도 있다고 함.
Fed officials remain “highly attentive to inflation risks” and are committed to bringing down price increases and keeping inflation expectations anchored, even if it slows economic growth. Still, policy makers also talked about the risks of tightening too much, noting there is a possibility the Fed “could tighten the stance of policy by more than necessary to restore price stability.”
Fed officials remain “highly attentive to inflation risks” and are committed to bringing down price increases and keeping inflation expectations anchored, even if it slows economic growth. Still, policy makers also talked about the risks of tightening too much, noting there is a possibility the Fed “could tighten the stance of policy by more than necessary to restore price stability.”
Bottom-line: 200일 이동평균선을 앞두고 악재 키워드에 더 민감.
US stocks fell for the first time in four days as investors assessed the outlook for the path of interest-rate hikes after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting noted officials saw risks from tightening more than necessary.
US stocks fell for the first time in four days as investors assessed the outlook for the path of interest-rate hikes after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting noted officials saw risks from tightening more than necessary.
Goldman Sachs economists downgraded their forecast for China’s full-year economic growth to 3% from 3.3% after weaker-than-expected July data and recent energy-supply issues.
Bottom-line: 이더리움 업그레이드 기대로 비트코인 대비 초과수익을 거둔 지난 6주간 이후 처음 열위를 보임.
The price of Ether, the second-largest digital token, is on pace to decline relative to Bitcoin for the first time in seven weeks. Ether got a major boost from hype around a software upgrade of the Ethereum blockchain know as the Merge. But that narrative “may be showing signs of exhaustion,” Fundstrat head of technical strategy Mark Newton wrote in a note Wednesday.
The price of Ether, the second-largest digital token, is on pace to decline relative to Bitcoin for the first time in seven weeks. Ether got a major boost from hype around a software upgrade of the Ethereum blockchain know as the Merge. But that narrative “may be showing signs of exhaustion,” Fundstrat head of technical strategy Mark Newton wrote in a note Wednesday.
Bottom-line: Soft Pivot? 언어의 마술사들이 많군.
Today’s minutes allow the Fed the option of a “soft pivot.” As weakness in economic data continues the stage is now set to slow rate increases or even pause to digest past rate actions.
Today’s minutes allow the Fed the option of a “soft pivot.” As weakness in economic data continues the stage is now set to slow rate increases or even pause to digest past rate actions.