Bottom-line: 중앙은행은 경제를 둔화시키더라도 핵심목표는 여전히 인플레이션을 통제하는 것이며, 어쩌면 필요 이상으로 금리를 더 높게 올릴 위험도 있다고 함.
Fed officials remain “highly attentive to inflation risks” and are committed to bringing down price increases and keeping inflation expectations anchored, even if it slows economic growth. Still, policy makers also talked about the risks of tightening too much, noting there is a possibility the Fed “could tighten the stance of policy by more than necessary to restore price stability.”
Fed officials remain “highly attentive to inflation risks” and are committed to bringing down price increases and keeping inflation expectations anchored, even if it slows economic growth. Still, policy makers also talked about the risks of tightening too much, noting there is a possibility the Fed “could tighten the stance of policy by more than necessary to restore price stability.”
Bottom-line: 200일 이동평균선을 앞두고 악재 키워드에 더 민감.
US stocks fell for the first time in four days as investors assessed the outlook for the path of interest-rate hikes after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting noted officials saw risks from tightening more than necessary.
US stocks fell for the first time in four days as investors assessed the outlook for the path of interest-rate hikes after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting noted officials saw risks from tightening more than necessary.
Goldman Sachs economists downgraded their forecast for China’s full-year economic growth to 3% from 3.3% after weaker-than-expected July data and recent energy-supply issues.
Bottom-line: 이더리움 업그레이드 기대로 비트코인 대비 초과수익을 거둔 지난 6주간 이후 처음 열위를 보임.
The price of Ether, the second-largest digital token, is on pace to decline relative to Bitcoin for the first time in seven weeks. Ether got a major boost from hype around a software upgrade of the Ethereum blockchain know as the Merge. But that narrative “may be showing signs of exhaustion,” Fundstrat head of technical strategy Mark Newton wrote in a note Wednesday.
The price of Ether, the second-largest digital token, is on pace to decline relative to Bitcoin for the first time in seven weeks. Ether got a major boost from hype around a software upgrade of the Ethereum blockchain know as the Merge. But that narrative “may be showing signs of exhaustion,” Fundstrat head of technical strategy Mark Newton wrote in a note Wednesday.
Bottom-line: Soft Pivot? 언어의 마술사들이 많군.
Today’s minutes allow the Fed the option of a “soft pivot.” As weakness in economic data continues the stage is now set to slow rate increases or even pause to digest past rate actions.
Today’s minutes allow the Fed the option of a “soft pivot.” As weakness in economic data continues the stage is now set to slow rate increases or even pause to digest past rate actions.
Bottom-line: 새로운 정책이나 금리인상 없이 인플레이션 압력이 이대로 완화될 것이란 낙관론이 지나친 가운데, 중앙은행이 남겨 둔 메시지는 랠리를 이어가기엔 해석의 묘한 부분이 많았음.
While policy makers warned against over-tightening and signaled the potential for slower rate increases at some point, they also flagged the risk of inflation pressures becoming entrenched. The nuanced messaging wasn’t dovish enough for markets to sustain a risk-on stance into Thursday. Caution was the byword of the moment with further clues awaited at the Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming next week. “People are a little overly optimistic about how likely it is that we can solve the inflation problem quickly and in a way where we don’t have to include more policy and more rising rates,” Kathryn Kaminski, AlphaSimplex Group chief research strategist and portfolio manager, said on Bloomberg Television.
While policy makers warned against over-tightening and signaled the potential for slower rate increases at some point, they also flagged the risk of inflation pressures becoming entrenched. The nuanced messaging wasn’t dovish enough for markets to sustain a risk-on stance into Thursday. Caution was the byword of the moment with further clues awaited at the Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming next week. “People are a little overly optimistic about how likely it is that we can solve the inflation problem quickly and in a way where we don’t have to include more policy and more rising rates,” Kathryn Kaminski, AlphaSimplex Group chief research strategist and portfolio manager, said on Bloomberg Television.
Bottom-line: 롤렉스, 오메가, 바쉐론 콘스탄틴에 이르는 고가의 시계 수출이 8년래 최대치를 기록, 대확산 시기 집에 갇혔던 이들이 롤렉스, 오데마 피게, 파텍 필립 등 스위스 브랜드에 눈을 뜨며 돈을 쏟아부은 것임.
Swiss Watch Exports Jump to Highest Since 2014 as Industry Booms. Swiss watch exports rose again in July, increasing to near record levels and notching their highest value in eight years as demand for pricey Rolex, Omega and Vacheron Constantin timepieces booms. Exports rose 8.3% in July compared to the same month in 2021 to 2.2 billion Swiss francs ($2.3 billion), the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry said Thursday. That’s the highest value for exports of Swiss watches since a record performance in October 2014. Demand for luxury watches has been soaring after many cash-flush consumers discovered Swiss brands from Rolex to Audemars Piguet and Patek Philippe while stuck at home during the pandemic.
Swiss Watch Exports Jump to Highest Since 2014 as Industry Booms. Swiss watch exports rose again in July, increasing to near record levels and notching their highest value in eight years as demand for pricey Rolex, Omega and Vacheron Constantin timepieces booms. Exports rose 8.3% in July compared to the same month in 2021 to 2.2 billion Swiss francs ($2.3 billion), the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry said Thursday. That’s the highest value for exports of Swiss watches since a record performance in October 2014. Demand for luxury watches has been soaring after many cash-flush consumers discovered Swiss brands from Rolex to Audemars Piguet and Patek Philippe while stuck at home during the pandemic.
Bottom-line: 적어도 1년 전, 잭슨홀에서 파월의 연설은 전세계인이 집중하도록 만들었음. 하지만 크게 틀린 세 가지, 인플레이션이 일시적이고, 노동시장 침체가 과소평가되고 있고, 임금으로 인한 압력은 없다고 한 것 때문에 이달 말 그의 연설은 설득력이 없을 것임. 아마도 그는 올해 또 세 가지를 강조할 것인데...
Nearly a year ago, when US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered his speech at the annual economic conference in Jackson Hole, a global audience was hanging on every word for insights into the outlook for growth, inflation and monetary policy in an extremely uncertain environment. Given how mistaken his assessment proved to be, he’ll have a harder time sounding convincing when he gives his next speech in the same venue later this month. But for the sake of the Fed’s efforts to contain inflation, he’ll have to try. In his 2021 address, Powell got it wrong in several important ways. He asserted that a nascent surge in inflation was “likely to prove temporary,” that the low unemployment rate “understates the amount of labor market slack,” and that “we see little evidence of wage increases that might threaten excessive inflation.” He endorsed the more inflation-tolerant monetary policy framework that the Fed adopted in 2020 as “well-suited to address today’s challenges.”. Powell surely hopes this year’s speech will prove more prescient. I expect him to emphasize three themes: that the economy still has forward momentum with an extremely tight labor market and unacceptably high inflation, that the Fed must tighten monetary policy further to restrain the economy and ease pressure on the labor market, and that the Fed won’t relent until it’s sure it has done enough for long enough to achieve its 2% inflation target.
Nearly a year ago, when US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered his speech at the annual economic conference in Jackson Hole, a global audience was hanging on every word for insights into the outlook for growth, inflation and monetary policy in an extremely uncertain environment. Given how mistaken his assessment proved to be, he’ll have a harder time sounding convincing when he gives his next speech in the same venue later this month. But for the sake of the Fed’s efforts to contain inflation, he’ll have to try. In his 2021 address, Powell got it wrong in several important ways. He asserted that a nascent surge in inflation was “likely to prove temporary,” that the low unemployment rate “understates the amount of labor market slack,” and that “we see little evidence of wage increases that might threaten excessive inflation.” He endorsed the more inflation-tolerant monetary policy framework that the Fed adopted in 2020 as “well-suited to address today’s challenges.”. Powell surely hopes this year’s speech will prove more prescient. I expect him to emphasize three themes: that the economy still has forward momentum with an extremely tight labor market and unacceptably high inflation, that the Fed must tighten monetary policy further to restrain the economy and ease pressure on the labor market, and that the Fed won’t relent until it’s sure it has done enough for long enough to achieve its 2% inflation target.
Bottom-line: 로블럭스 주가는 5월 중순 이후 현재까지 100% 가까이 상승하며 6개월 간의 하락을 모두 되돌림. 주가 하락에 베팅했던 투자자들은 지난 한달 간 87.6만주를 커버하며 물러서고 있음.
Roblox Short Sellers Retreat Amid 100% Stock Run. The stunning rally in Roblox Corp. has forced short sellers to pull back as upbeat investors pile into its stock amid an uptick in users of its video-game platform. Roblox has almost doubled since mid-May, snapping a six-month losing streak. That’s fueled a retreat by bears who had bet against the stock. Shorts have been reducing their Roblox positions recently, buying 876,000 shares, worth $42 million, over the past 30 days, according to S3 Partners. While plenty of technology stocks have posted big year, but now it’s outperforming peers, beating all members of the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index since the benchmark bottomed in June.
Roblox Short Sellers Retreat Amid 100% Stock Run. The stunning rally in Roblox Corp. has forced short sellers to pull back as upbeat investors pile into its stock amid an uptick in users of its video-game platform. Roblox has almost doubled since mid-May, snapping a six-month losing streak. That’s fueled a retreat by bears who had bet against the stock. Shorts have been reducing their Roblox positions recently, buying 876,000 shares, worth $42 million, over the past 30 days, according to S3 Partners. While plenty of technology stocks have posted big year, but now it’s outperforming peers, beating all members of the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index since the benchmark bottomed in June.
Bottom-line: 신규로 신청 된 실업수당 청구가 3주만에 감소하며 예상치를 하회했는데, 다음 달 발표 될 고용보고서의 조사 주기와 맞물린단 점도 주목할 점임.
Applications for US unemployment insurance fell for the first time in three weeks, suggesting demand for labor remains healthy. Initial unemployment claims decreased by 2,000 to 250,000 in the week ended Aug. 13, Labor Department data showed Thursday. The date is particularly scrutinized because it corresponds with the reference period for the government’s August employment report, which will be released early next month.
Applications for US unemployment insurance fell for the first time in three weeks, suggesting demand for labor remains healthy. Initial unemployment claims decreased by 2,000 to 250,000 in the week ended Aug. 13, Labor Department data showed Thursday. The date is particularly scrutinized because it corresponds with the reference period for the government’s August employment report, which will be released early next month.
Bottom-line: 지난 오랜 기간 동안 중앙은행이 아무리 통화를 팽창해도 늘어나지 않던 화폐유통속도가 양적축소를 시작하는 지금에서야 반대로 증가하고 있음. 화폐의 유통속도 증가는 인플레이션이 더욱 오래도록 불타게 할 것임.
Velocity of money has been missing in action for the last decade, but now it’s back and it’s going to take inflation with it. For years, despite the best efforts of central bankers, velocity fell even as they expanded their balance sheets to unprecedented levels, as demand fell faster than the growth in new money. But that is now changing. Even as money begins to fall as QT gains momentum, velocity is rising. This is the fuel that will keep the inflation embers burning far longer than most expect.
Velocity of money has been missing in action for the last decade, but now it’s back and it’s going to take inflation with it. For years, despite the best efforts of central bankers, velocity fell even as they expanded their balance sheets to unprecedented levels, as demand fell faster than the growth in new money. But that is now changing. Even as money begins to fall as QT gains momentum, velocity is rising. This is the fuel that will keep the inflation embers burning far longer than most expect.
US stocks turned higher in thin trading as investors assessed the latest economic earnings data against the outlook for interest-rate hikes. Treasury yields were lower across the board, while the dollar gained.