"Age is no barrier. It's a limitation you put on your mind."

- Jackie Joyner-Kersee

French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said Europe must prepare for Russian gas deliveries to be shut off entirely in retaliation for the region’s sanctions on the Kremlin and support for Ukraine. “Let’s prepare ourselves for a total cut-off of Russian gas,” Le Maire said at an economicㅕ conference in Aix-en-Provence, southern France, on Sunday. “That’s the most likely scenario today.” France must be “very careful” in its energy consumption, build up gas stockpiles, reduce red tape slowing the development of renewable energies, and accelerate its program to build new nuclear reactors, the finance minister said. The country must also make plans to curtail energy usage company by company, and by region, to ensure that businesses such as glass makers are spared from irreversible damage, he added.

함의: 프랑스 재무장관은 러시아의 가스관 차단 가능성이 매우 높으며, 에너지 위기를 극복하기 위해 재생 에너지 및 원자력 발전에 속도를 높여야 한다고 함.

Shanghai reported its first case of the BA.5 sub-variant on Sunday, warning of “very high” risks as the city’s rising Covid outbreak sparks fears of a return to its earlier lockdown. The case was discovered Friday, Zhao Dandan, vice head of Shanghai’s health commission, said at a press conference Sunday. Mass testing for Covid will be performed twice between July 12 and July 14 in nine districts, as well as tests for people in some neighborhoods in other districts where infected people have been, he added. The city reported one local Covid case outside quarantine for Sunday. 

함의: 중국 내 변이 바이러스 감염 발견에 따라 봉쇄 가능성 높아지고 있음.

Bitcoin bulls beware: Wall Street expects the cryptocurrency’s crash to get a whole lot worse. The token is more likely to tumble to $10,000, cutting its value roughly in half, than it is to rally back to $30,000, according to 60% of the 950 investors who responded to the latest MLIV Pulse survey. Forty percent saw it going the other way. It was around $21,850 late Friday afternoon, ending the week up over 12%. The lopsided prediction underscores how bearish investors have become. The crypto industry has been rocked by troubled lenders, collapsed currencies, and an end to the easy money policies of the pandemic that fueled a speculative frenzy in financial markets. 

함의: 블룸버그 설문 결과 비트코인 가격의 3만불 회복보다 1만불로 하락 응답이 많았고, 여러 환경들이 부정적 투자심리를 조성하고 있다 함.

Australia’s dollar has reacted rather peculiarly to some of the steepest rate hikes in the RBA’s history -- the currency tumbled to a 2-year low. Traders and economists expect the central bank to keep hiking, and yet hedge funds and currency traders have gone well short the AUD since May. Part of that may be because of concern that RBA hikes will push Australia into recession, but it’s likely that the dire global outlook is playing at least as large a role.

함의: 호주 달러는 중앙은행의 금리인상에도 불구 약세를 보이고 있으며, 이는 경기침체 위험이 통화에 더 크게 작용하고 있다는 의미임.

President Joe Biden said his administration is still discussing possible action on US tariffs on Chinese imports, after Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said she expects a decision “shortly.” “No, we are having further discussions on that,” Biden told reporters in Delaware on Sunday when asked if there was a decision. Biden’s administration has been considering easing some Trump-era tariffs on consumer goods from China for some time amid divisions among his team. Senior US and Chinese officials discussed US economic sanctions and tariffs last week.

함의: 티박스서 루틴이 상당히 긴 편인 바이든.

Get set for a titanic legal battle between Twitter and Elon Musk. Twitter hired merger law heavyweight Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz as it races to sue Musk for moving to dump his $44 billion takeover of the company, people familiar said, gaining access to a team with a couple of big legal dogs such as the former chancellor of the court in Delaware where the case will be held. Musk doubled down on his claims that the platform failed to fully disclose how much traffic is driven by bots — which Twitter has repeatedly denied. Shares dropped late Friday.

함의: 인수합병 거래 건 수가 성장 기업에 대한 투자자들의 심리를 대변함.

Investors are facing a rapidly shrinking universe of Chinese high-yield dollar bonds after a record wave of offshore defaults by property developers. Among what were the 50 biggest issuers by weighting at the end of 2020 in a Bloomberg index of such securities, 20 went on to miss payments or propose a restructuring or extension of offshore notes. The five largest index members then, including China Evergrande Group, have since defaulted, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The recent default of Shimao Group Holdings Ltd., which has $6.1 billion outstanding dollar bonds, added to a list of delinquent Chinese property giants. 

함의: 수면 아래에서 신용위기가 부풀어 오르고 있음.

An Asian equity gauge fell amid declines in Hong Kong and China. Japan was the one bright spot, buoyed by the prospect of administrative stability after the ruling coalition expanded its majority in an upper house election. A dollar gauge was back around the highest level since 2020. The yen was the weakest performer in the Group-of-10 basket. Commodity-linked currencies were also under pressure. Raw materials including oil were on the back foot.

함의: 위험회피심리로 달러 지수 고점에 재차 도달함.

The dollar rallies against all G-10 majors as inflation anxiety keeps Treasuries subdued and as Chinese equity selloff weighs on Asia’s risk sentiment. Yen weakens to a fresh 24-year low above 137/USD.

함의: Cocktail of Risks Boosts Dollar.

The risk of a euro-area recession is growing as the likelihood of natural gas shortages rises and inflation remains at record levels, according to economists polled by Bloomberg. The probability of an economic contraction has increased to 45% from 30% in the previous survey and 20% before Russia invaded Ukraine. Germany, one of the most-vulnerable members of the currency bloc to cutbacks in Russian energy flows, is more likely than not to see economic output shrink. 

함의: 설문에 따르면 유로존의 경기침체 확률이 러시아의 우크라이나 침공 전 20%, 6월 30%에서 7월 45%로 높아졌음(독일의 경우 6월 30%, 7월 55%).

Daily exports was supported by a pick-up in Vietnam (32.0%Y), Singapore (71.1%Y) and Malaysia (95.2%Y), and sustained strength in US (21.3%Y), offsetting softer momentum in EU (-7.0%Y) and China (4.1%Y). By product, petro products (124.8%Y), ships (61.9%Y), and autos (21.2%Y) were bright spots.

보고서: 한국의 7월 열흘간 수출 데이터는 화학, 조선, 자동차 부문에서 특히 긍정적이었음. (Morgan Stanley - Data NOW: July First 10 Days Daily Exports Accelerated)

China’s Wuhan University reported a case of cholera, spurring a rush to trace contacts and stem potential further spread. The district’s health department said it has collected samples, undertaken contact tracing and closed some venues for disinfection after the student was found to have the disease. No further cases have been detected so far, it said. Cholera --  a virulent disease that’s spread through contaminated food and water and causes acute diarrhea -- is relatively rare in China, with one case found in March and five detected last year. But its possible emergence in Wuhan, the original epicenter of Covid-19, comes as China’s health system faces unprecedented scrutiny as coronavirus infections flare across the country despite a harsh zero-tolerance approach designed to stamp out the virus.

함의: 역병의 연속.

One of Wall Street’s most vocal bears is growling again, this time because of dollar strength. The “extreme” rally in the greenback over the past year typically comes alongside market stress or recession, or both, Michael J. Wilson, chief US equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, wrote in a report Sunday, noting how the Fed will want a meaningful economic slowdown and “a stronger dollar is part of that mix.” As such, the surge will be a “massive headwind” for profits at many large US firms and another reason to expect a dimming earnings outlook, he wrote, adding “the recent rally in stocks is likely to fizzle out.”

함의: As i told you.

There has been a notable willingness to re-embrace risk assets so far this month, but still signs of traders willing to bet against them. Net-short non-commercial S&P 500 futures positions increased for a third straight week and have hit their largest since June 2020, according to the latest CFTC data. The bearish bets have grown despite -- or possibly because of -- the US stock benchmark climbing over 6% from its mid-June low.

함의: 지수가 저점 대비 +6% 상승하는 과정에도 비상업적 선물 순매도 포지션은 2020년 6월 대비 최고치를 기록함.

US stocks are likely to rally in the second half of the year as corporate earnings remain resilient to surging inflation and slowing economic growth, according to Citigroup Inc. strategists. “Current risk-off positioning and second-half earnings resilience set up for a mean reversion trade higher into year end,” Citi strategists led by Scott T Chronert wrote in a note on Friday. They expect the S&P 500 to finish this year at 4,200 -- about 7.7% higher from the latest close and a 12% drop for the full year. 

함의: 이번 분기 발표 될 훌륭한 기업 이익이 지수를 더 높은 수준으로 끌어올릴 것이라 주장함.

European regulators are urging second booster doses of Covid-19 vaccines for people over 60 years old as cases and hospitalizations are again rising sharply. Recommendations from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control and the European Medicines Agency also include people with medical conditions that put them at high risk of severe disease, both agencies said in a statement on Monday. Weekly cases rates among people age 65 and over increased 32% in 22 of the 24 reporting countries in the week ending July 3 compared to the previous week, according to an ECDC statement.

함의: 유럽 내 고령자와 취약자에서 바이러스 중증환자가 증가함에 따라 백신 추가 접종을 권고하는 성명을 발표함.

Germany is ready to make a decision on a bailout for Uniper SE “soon” but ongoing talks with the company are “difficult.”
Uniper - which is heavily dependent on Russian gas - asked the German government for a bailout on Friday, the first major corporate casualty of Moscow’s squeeze on European energy flows. The government is prepared to help the company no matter what, said a spokeswoman for government. Germany and Uniper have been locked in talks for weeks over a potential rescue package. The company may need about 9 billion euros ($9.1 billion), more than twice its market value, as it bleeds cash trying to replace Russian gas supply with higher-priced alternatives. 

함의: 러시아 가스에 의존도가 높은 독일 기업 중 첫 피해 사례가 발생함.

China’s credit jumped much more than expected last month to the highest on record for June due to a strong rebound in bank lending and record government bond sales. Aggregate financing, a broad measure of credit, reached 5.2 trillion yuan ($775 billion), the People’s Bank of China said Monday. That was the highest for any June in comparable data back to 2017 and beat the consensus estimate of 4.2 trillion yuan. Financial institutions made 2.8 trillion yuan of new loans in the month, also better than economists’ projection. The end of the lockdown of Shanghai in June may have contributed to the increase in borrowing demand. The data indicates that stimulus from the central bank and government is starting to have an effect on boosting the supply of credit to the economy.

함의: 중국 정부의 경기부양 노력이 신용 공급 증가로 가시화되고 있음.

BlackRock Warns Against Dip Buying as High-Volatility Era Dawns. There’s no quick recovery in sight for stocks and bonds that are having their worst year in at least three decades, according to strategists at BlackRock Inc. Russia’s grinding war in Ukraine and supply bottlenecks from labor shortages will keep the pace of price growth elevated. Central banks will tighten policy until the economic pain forces them to shift direction and live with inflation. Constrained by the “hyper-politicization of everything,” policy makers will struggle to tackle the fallout.

함의: 블랙락은 30년래 최악의 시기를 보내고 있는 주식과 채권의 성과가 단기에 회복할 것이란 기대로 섣부른 매수를 하는게 위험하다고 경고함.

When Wall Street analysts were as bullish on stocks as they are now, while investors were bearish, history shows it’s the prognosticators that are usually right. The gap between analysts’ 12-month target and current prices for US major averages have widened this year as gloomy investors sent stocks plunging while strategists stood by their optimistic views. Monthly data doing back to 2004 identified four previous instances when the S&P 500’s projected returns (the gap between strategist 12-month forecasts and spot prices) were equal or higher than the 25.5% as of Thursday’s close. The benchmark posted an average gain of 24.9% a year later, rising three our of the four times. Analysts called for an average of 28.9% gain back then.

함의: 이 정도 지수 격차에서는 애널리스트 추정에 결국 수렴함.