Bottom-line: 독일 경제는 우크라이나 전쟁과 물가 상승에도 불구 2분기 동안 0.1%의 성장을 달성한 것으로 발표되었음. 예상보단 나았지만, 향후 유럽 경제의 침체 두려움을 잠식시키기엔 부족함.
Germany’s economy proved more resilient than initially thought in the second quarter, growing 0.1% despite surging inflation and the war in Ukraine. Thursday’s reading from the statistics office exceeds the preliminary estimate for stagnation in the three months through June, though it won’t do much to dispel fears over the outlook for Europe’s largest economy.
Germany’s economy proved more resilient than initially thought in the second quarter, growing 0.1% despite surging inflation and the war in Ukraine. Thursday’s reading from the statistics office exceeds the preliminary estimate for stagnation in the three months through June, though it won’t do much to dispel fears over the outlook for Europe’s largest economy.
Bottom-line: 잭슨홀 연설을 앞두고 엔화 옵션에 대한 포지션도 명확한 이유 없이 그간과 반대 방향으로 급격하게 바뀜. 인플레이션 완화 신호와 경기침체 위험이 파월이 강경한 발언을 고수할 수 있을지 의문을 키운 것으로 보임.
As the countdown to the Jackson Hole symposium begins, an abrupt shift has taken place in the options market. When trading got underway in Asia on Thursday, investors had to pay more for options which benefit when dollar-yen rises. Just a few hours later, the premium had shifted in favor of options that benefit when the currency pair falls. While it’s hard to say with certainty what led to the change, doubts may be growing that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will stick to his hawkish noscript at the upcoming symposium. Signs that inflation may be moderating and concerns of a global downturn are backing the case for policy makers to opt for more measured rate increases.
As the countdown to the Jackson Hole symposium begins, an abrupt shift has taken place in the options market. When trading got underway in Asia on Thursday, investors had to pay more for options which benefit when dollar-yen rises. Just a few hours later, the premium had shifted in favor of options that benefit when the currency pair falls. While it’s hard to say with certainty what led to the change, doubts may be growing that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will stick to his hawkish noscript at the upcoming symposium. Signs that inflation may be moderating and concerns of a global downturn are backing the case for policy makers to opt for more measured rate increases.
Bottom-line: 중앙은행의 금리인상 경고에 귀를 기울이지 않도록 만든 실수를 이번 잭슨홀 연설에서 바로잡으려 할 것임. 설령 어느 순간 금리인상 속도는 둔화 될 수 있어도 양적긴축 규모 확대로 인한 충격은 시작도 하지 않았음. 중앙은행은 실업률을 높여 고용시장을 냉각시키거나 완화적이 되어버린 금융시장환경을 다시 압박시켜야 할 것임.
Fear of Fed playback keeps big managers awake on jackson hole eve. “I don’t think the market’s listened to any of the governors,” Tom Thornton, Hedge Fund Telemetry Founder, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “It’s going to take Powell to reverse some of the dovish comments he had at the last Fed meeting to have the market take this seriously.". Minutes of the Fed’s meeting last month stoked a view that the Fed might soon pivot to a less-aggressive stance. After several consecutive super-sized hikes, the pace of rate increases could slow “at some point,” the minutes showed. But even if policy makers back off from another 75-basis point hike at September’s meeting, quantitative tightening is scheduled to kick into its highest gear. The balance-sheet runoff’s monthly cap will lift from $47.5 billion to a maximum pace of $95 billion next month -- a reality that has yet to be reflected in markets. “The Fed needs to break one of two things,” said Gene Tannuzzo, global head of fixed income at Columbia Threadneedle. “Either they need to break the labor market, with unemployment pushing higher. Or they need to break financial conditions.”
Fear of Fed playback keeps big managers awake on jackson hole eve. “I don’t think the market’s listened to any of the governors,” Tom Thornton, Hedge Fund Telemetry Founder, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “It’s going to take Powell to reverse some of the dovish comments he had at the last Fed meeting to have the market take this seriously.". Minutes of the Fed’s meeting last month stoked a view that the Fed might soon pivot to a less-aggressive stance. After several consecutive super-sized hikes, the pace of rate increases could slow “at some point,” the minutes showed. But even if policy makers back off from another 75-basis point hike at September’s meeting, quantitative tightening is scheduled to kick into its highest gear. The balance-sheet runoff’s monthly cap will lift from $47.5 billion to a maximum pace of $95 billion next month -- a reality that has yet to be reflected in markets. “The Fed needs to break one of two things,” said Gene Tannuzzo, global head of fixed income at Columbia Threadneedle. “Either they need to break the labor market, with unemployment pushing higher. Or they need to break financial conditions.”
Bottom-line: 브리지워터는 시장 참여자들이 안정적인 경제상황에서 인플레이션이 둔화됨을 가격에 반영 중인데 반해 금리인상과 양적축소의 영향을 고려하지 않고 있다 보며, 심지어 인플레이션은 쉽게 통제되지 않을 것 같고, 금리는 더 높아지며 전체 자산시장은 20%~25% 하락할 것으로 본다 함.
Greg Jensen, co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater Associates, expects that equities are facing a significant drop to align them with the real economy. “In aggregate, the asset markets will decline from 20% to 25%,” he said in an interview with Bloomberg Television speaking with Kailey Leinz and Guy Johnson on “Bloomberg Markets.”. “The market is pricing a decline in inflation to occur in a relatively stable economy,” he said, but isn’t factoring in the impact of higher interested rates and the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening. Jensen expects that QT and rate hikes will drive down both inflation and economic growth, and “unfortunately the inflation will be more stubborn,” resulting in higher interest rates across the curve, particularly on the long end. Asset prices will also fall, he said.
Greg Jensen, co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater Associates, expects that equities are facing a significant drop to align them with the real economy. “In aggregate, the asset markets will decline from 20% to 25%,” he said in an interview with Bloomberg Television speaking with Kailey Leinz and Guy Johnson on “Bloomberg Markets.”. “The market is pricing a decline in inflation to occur in a relatively stable economy,” he said, but isn’t factoring in the impact of higher interested rates and the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening. Jensen expects that QT and rate hikes will drive down both inflation and economic growth, and “unfortunately the inflation will be more stubborn,” resulting in higher interest rates across the curve, particularly on the long end. Asset prices will also fall, he said.
Bottom-line: 외환 트레이더들은 잭슨홀 연설 기간 중 금요일보다 토요일에 더 관심을 집중할 것인데, 대확산 이후 정책전망이 주제며, 다음 주 유로, 스위스 프랑, 원화를 움직일 수 있는 인사들의 발언이 있기 때문임. 특히 유로와 원화의 경우 현재까지의 약세를 방어할 수 있는 구실이 생길지 주목되며, 그 결과는 거래가 말라버린 시드니 시장의 월요일이 알려줄 것임.
By the close of Friday’s US session markets will have priced for Jerome Powell, but FX traders will still be watching for comments from a star studded panel on Saturday which could move EUR, CHF or KRW next week. The Saturday panel is noscriptd “The Outlook for Policy Post-Pandemic.” It includes as panelists Banque de France Governor Villeroy de Galhau, SNB Chairman Jordan, BOK Governor Chang Yong Rhee and the ECB’s Schnabel. Should EUR/USD close near the 0.9901, August 23 low that could be problematic if ECB’s Schnabel fails to counteract a hawkish Powell. Same for Swissie which is on track for falling 8 of the past ten trading days. Although that would probably suit SNB President Jordan just fine. Not so much for BOK Governor Chang Yong Rhee, when Korean officials have tried jawboning some strength into the KRW. That sets up for a spicy Monday open in Sydney, when FX liquidity is at its absolute worst for the week.
By the close of Friday’s US session markets will have priced for Jerome Powell, but FX traders will still be watching for comments from a star studded panel on Saturday which could move EUR, CHF or KRW next week. The Saturday panel is noscriptd “The Outlook for Policy Post-Pandemic.” It includes as panelists Banque de France Governor Villeroy de Galhau, SNB Chairman Jordan, BOK Governor Chang Yong Rhee and the ECB’s Schnabel. Should EUR/USD close near the 0.9901, August 23 low that could be problematic if ECB’s Schnabel fails to counteract a hawkish Powell. Same for Swissie which is on track for falling 8 of the past ten trading days. Although that would probably suit SNB President Jordan just fine. Not so much for BOK Governor Chang Yong Rhee, when Korean officials have tried jawboning some strength into the KRW. That sets up for a spicy Monday open in Sydney, when FX liquidity is at its absolute worst for the week.
Bottom-line: 긴축의 끝자락에 얼마나 다가왔는지에 대한 중앙은행과 시장의 시각 차이가 매우 큰 것 같음. 잭슨홀에서 어떤 언어들이 나올지 알 수 없으니, 우리가 명확히 알 수 있는 것을 살펴보자면, i) 긴축을 시작하자마자 장기금리가 지금처럼 고점을 찍고 기간 프리미엄이 하락하는건 드문 경우며, ii) 40년래 최고 수준의 인플레이션 환경에서 실질정책금리가 0에 가까운 것도 이해하기 어려움. 2015년에서 2019년 긴축 시기에 인플레이션은 3%를 넘지 않았고, 이 때 실질정책금리는 거의 2%에 근접했음.
The Fed and the market appear to have very different views about how close we are to the end of the tightening cycle. That’s a set up for a big disappointment. The wait is over, with Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole later bringing and end to suspense. The general expectation is that he renews the Fed’s hawkish vows, but of course no-one knows for sure what he’ll say. So let’s focus on what we do know. This has been a unique tightening cycle. So soon after the Fed started hiking, rarely have long rates seemingly peaked out. Rarely has the yield curve flattened so aggressively. Rarely has the term premium started falling. Furthermore, the peak real Fed Funds rate is still less than zero, which is dumbfounding when you consider that inflation is at its highest level in forty years. In the last tightening cycle in 2015-2019, the peak real rate topped out at around +2%, when inflation got no higher than 3%.
The Fed and the market appear to have very different views about how close we are to the end of the tightening cycle. That’s a set up for a big disappointment. The wait is over, with Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole later bringing and end to suspense. The general expectation is that he renews the Fed’s hawkish vows, but of course no-one knows for sure what he’ll say. So let’s focus on what we do know. This has been a unique tightening cycle. So soon after the Fed started hiking, rarely have long rates seemingly peaked out. Rarely has the yield curve flattened so aggressively. Rarely has the term premium started falling. Furthermore, the peak real Fed Funds rate is still less than zero, which is dumbfounding when you consider that inflation is at its highest level in forty years. In the last tightening cycle in 2015-2019, the peak real rate topped out at around +2%, when inflation got no higher than 3%.
Bottom-line: 개인소비지출이 예상을 하회했으며, 개인소비물가지표 또한 예상을 하회하며 인플레이션이 소비에 부담을 준다는 점과 예전 대비 물가 속도도 둔화되고 있다는 것을 시사함.
Americans’ spending posted a sluggish increase in July, even while they got some relief on prices, indicating the economy is feeling the pinch from the highest inflation in a generation. Purchases of goods and services, adjusted for changes in prices, increased 0.2% after being flat a month earlier, Commerce Department data showed Friday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists was for a 0.4% advance.
The personal consumption expenditures price index, which the Federal Reserve uses for its inflation target, fell 0.1% from a month earlier and was up 6.3% since July 2021. That’s still a long ways from the central bank’s 2% target. The weaker-than-expected report suggests the backbone of the economy started the third quarter on rockier footing than previously thought. While a robust labor market paired with sizable and sustained wage increases has supported consumer spending in recent months, widespread inflation is eroding those gains.
Americans’ spending posted a sluggish increase in July, even while they got some relief on prices, indicating the economy is feeling the pinch from the highest inflation in a generation. Purchases of goods and services, adjusted for changes in prices, increased 0.2% after being flat a month earlier, Commerce Department data showed Friday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists was for a 0.4% advance.
The personal consumption expenditures price index, which the Federal Reserve uses for its inflation target, fell 0.1% from a month earlier and was up 6.3% since July 2021. That’s still a long ways from the central bank’s 2% target. The weaker-than-expected report suggests the backbone of the economy started the third quarter on rockier footing than previously thought. While a robust labor market paired with sizable and sustained wage increases has supported consumer spending in recent months, widespread inflation is eroding those gains.
Key comments from Powell:
“Restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time. The historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy.”
“Restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time. The historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy.”
함의: 쉽게 완화로 돌아설 것이라 기대하지 말 것.
cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy.
cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy.
Powell says the Fed’s monetary policy deliberations build on what it’s learned from the past. First lesson is that central banks can and should take responsibility for delivering low and stable inflation.
Powell:
“The longer the current bout of high inflation continues, the greater the chance that expectations of higher inflation will become entrenched.”
높은 물가를 그대로 두면, 사람들의 물가 기대 또한 덩달아 높아질 것이기 때문에.
“The longer the current bout of high inflation continues, the greater the chance that expectations of higher inflation will become entrenched.”
높은 물가를 그대로 두면, 사람들의 물가 기대 또한 덩달아 높아질 것이기 때문에.
Powell notes that while the July inflation news -- including the surprisingly good PCE report today -- is good, it’s not nearly enough:
“While the lower inflation readings for July are welcome, a single month’s improvement falls far short of what the committee will need to see before we are confident that inflation is moving down.”
7월 물가지표가 낮아진 것은 좋으나, 좀 더 데이터를 지켜보겠다고 함.
“While the lower inflation readings for July are welcome, a single month’s improvement falls far short of what the committee will need to see before we are confident that inflation is moving down.”
7월 물가지표가 낮아진 것은 좋으나, 좀 더 데이터를 지켜보겠다고 함.
The second lesson, Powell says, is that the “public’s expectations about future inflation can play an important role in setting the path of inflation over time.”
The third lesson, Powell says, is that the Fed must keep at the job until it’s done. He wraps up by saying:
“These lessons are guiding us as we use our tools to bring inflation down. We are taking forceful and rapid steps to moderate demand so that it comes into better alignment with supply, and to keep inflation expectations anchored. We will keep at it until we are confident the job is done.”
중앙은행의 인플레이션을 위한 행동이 끝날 때까지 끝났다고 생각하지 말아야 함.
“These lessons are guiding us as we use our tools to bring inflation down. We are taking forceful and rapid steps to moderate demand so that it comes into better alignment with supply, and to keep inflation expectations anchored. We will keep at it until we are confident the job is done.”
중앙은행의 인플레이션을 위한 행동이 끝날 때까지 끝났다고 생각하지 말아야 함.
중간에 반등은 아래 코멘트 때문인데, 언젠가 속도를 늦춰야 한다는 사실은 안다고 함.
Powell repeats that while another 75 basis-point hike is possible at the next meeting, it will likely “at some point” be appropriate to slow the pace of increases.
Powell repeats that while another 75 basis-point hike is possible at the next meeting, it will likely “at some point” be appropriate to slow the pace of increases.