Powell says the Fed’s monetary policy deliberations build on what it’s learned from the past. First lesson is that central banks can and should take responsibility for delivering low and stable inflation.
Powell:
“The longer the current bout of high inflation continues, the greater the chance that expectations of higher inflation will become entrenched.”
높은 물가를 그대로 두면, 사람들의 물가 기대 또한 덩달아 높아질 것이기 때문에.
“The longer the current bout of high inflation continues, the greater the chance that expectations of higher inflation will become entrenched.”
높은 물가를 그대로 두면, 사람들의 물가 기대 또한 덩달아 높아질 것이기 때문에.
Powell notes that while the July inflation news -- including the surprisingly good PCE report today -- is good, it’s not nearly enough:
“While the lower inflation readings for July are welcome, a single month’s improvement falls far short of what the committee will need to see before we are confident that inflation is moving down.”
7월 물가지표가 낮아진 것은 좋으나, 좀 더 데이터를 지켜보겠다고 함.
“While the lower inflation readings for July are welcome, a single month’s improvement falls far short of what the committee will need to see before we are confident that inflation is moving down.”
7월 물가지표가 낮아진 것은 좋으나, 좀 더 데이터를 지켜보겠다고 함.
The second lesson, Powell says, is that the “public’s expectations about future inflation can play an important role in setting the path of inflation over time.”
The third lesson, Powell says, is that the Fed must keep at the job until it’s done. He wraps up by saying:
“These lessons are guiding us as we use our tools to bring inflation down. We are taking forceful and rapid steps to moderate demand so that it comes into better alignment with supply, and to keep inflation expectations anchored. We will keep at it until we are confident the job is done.”
중앙은행의 인플레이션을 위한 행동이 끝날 때까지 끝났다고 생각하지 말아야 함.
“These lessons are guiding us as we use our tools to bring inflation down. We are taking forceful and rapid steps to moderate demand so that it comes into better alignment with supply, and to keep inflation expectations anchored. We will keep at it until we are confident the job is done.”
중앙은행의 인플레이션을 위한 행동이 끝날 때까지 끝났다고 생각하지 말아야 함.
중간에 반등은 아래 코멘트 때문인데, 언젠가 속도를 늦춰야 한다는 사실은 안다고 함.
Powell repeats that while another 75 basis-point hike is possible at the next meeting, it will likely “at some point” be appropriate to slow the pace of increases.
Powell repeats that while another 75 basis-point hike is possible at the next meeting, it will likely “at some point” be appropriate to slow the pace of increases.
Bottom-line: That is ideal landing zone. (한국 용어로 티샷이 IP에 잘 떨어짐.)
“Powell’s comments were remarkably in line with market expectations,” BMO’s Ian Lyngen said in a note.
“He emphasized that the size of the September rate hike hinges on the ‘totality’ of the data -- this is telling in two regards 1) there will be a hike (which was a given) and 2) July’s inflation data isn’t enough to take 75 bp off the table -- so the debate remains 75 vs. 50 at least until we see the September 13 release of August’s CPI.”
“Powell’s comments were remarkably in line with market expectations,” BMO’s Ian Lyngen said in a note.
“He emphasized that the size of the September rate hike hinges on the ‘totality’ of the data -- this is telling in two regards 1) there will be a hike (which was a given) and 2) July’s inflation data isn’t enough to take 75 bp off the table -- so the debate remains 75 vs. 50 at least until we see the September 13 release of August’s CPI.”
It's showtime for Jerome Powell. His speech at Jackson Hole — set for 10 a.m. ET — has investors in Asia and Europe canceling their Friday night pub crawl and pushing back weekend plans.
Bottom-line: 파월의 8분 간 연설로 빌리어네어들의 자산 780억 달러가 증발함.
Powell’s 8-Minute Speech Erases $78 Billion From Richest Americans. In the span of just eight minutes, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sparked a market rout that slashed the fortunes of America’s richest people by $78 billion. Elon Musk’s saw $5.5 billion erased from his wealth. Jeff Bezos lost $6.8 billion, the most of anyone on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. The fortunes of Bill Gates and Warren Buffett declined by $2.2 billion and $2.7 billion, respectively, while Sergey Brin’s was knocked below $100 billion. Powell used his speech at the Kansas City Fed’s annual policy forum in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, to reiterate that the US central bank will keep raising interest rates and probably leave them elevated for a while to reduce inflation. He was seen as pushing back on a recent rally in US stocks that was fueled by speculation that policy makers would soon reverse course from their aggressive monetary tightening. The S&P 500 tumbled 3.4%, its worst day since mid-June. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, which counts Microsoft Corp., Amazon.com Inc., Tesla Inc. and Alphabet Inc. among its biggest components, plunged more than 4%.
Powell’s 8-Minute Speech Erases $78 Billion From Richest Americans. In the span of just eight minutes, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sparked a market rout that slashed the fortunes of America’s richest people by $78 billion. Elon Musk’s saw $5.5 billion erased from his wealth. Jeff Bezos lost $6.8 billion, the most of anyone on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. The fortunes of Bill Gates and Warren Buffett declined by $2.2 billion and $2.7 billion, respectively, while Sergey Brin’s was knocked below $100 billion. Powell used his speech at the Kansas City Fed’s annual policy forum in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, to reiterate that the US central bank will keep raising interest rates and probably leave them elevated for a while to reduce inflation. He was seen as pushing back on a recent rally in US stocks that was fueled by speculation that policy makers would soon reverse course from their aggressive monetary tightening. The S&P 500 tumbled 3.4%, its worst day since mid-June. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, which counts Microsoft Corp., Amazon.com Inc., Tesla Inc. and Alphabet Inc. among its biggest components, plunged more than 4%.
Bottom-line: 유명지로 여행을 떠나기엔 항공편이 부족해지면서 부유한 사람들의 개인 항공기 이용이란 방법으로 항공난을 스스로 해결하며 각 공항별 민간 항공편이 급증하고 있음.
Private Jets to Ibiza, Paris Surge as Rich Evade Travel Chaos. As Europe grapples with a summer of travel chaos, the wealthiest are increasingly taking matters into their own hands. Private-jet use has surged by almost a third in recent months compared to pre-pandemic levels, stretching airport capacity from Ibiza to Mykonos and stoking a political backlash in France. London logged the most private flights -- more than 12,000 in July -- while Naples, Amsterdam and Berlin saw the biggest increases in private traffic among the most popular airports from 2019 levels, according to data compiled by the European Business Aviation Association. The surge comes as Europeans, eager to travel as Covid restrictions were lifted, flocked to airlines that have struggled to add back staff they shed during the pandemic. British Airways Plc, Deutsche Lufthansa AG and other major carriers have cancelled tens of thousands of intra-European flights this summer amid the worker shortage.
Private Jets to Ibiza, Paris Surge as Rich Evade Travel Chaos. As Europe grapples with a summer of travel chaos, the wealthiest are increasingly taking matters into their own hands. Private-jet use has surged by almost a third in recent months compared to pre-pandemic levels, stretching airport capacity from Ibiza to Mykonos and stoking a political backlash in France. London logged the most private flights -- more than 12,000 in July -- while Naples, Amsterdam and Berlin saw the biggest increases in private traffic among the most popular airports from 2019 levels, according to data compiled by the European Business Aviation Association. The surge comes as Europeans, eager to travel as Covid restrictions were lifted, flocked to airlines that have struggled to add back staff they shed during the pandemic. British Airways Plc, Deutsche Lufthansa AG and other major carriers have cancelled tens of thousands of intra-European flights this summer amid the worker shortage.
Bottom-line: Korean Fans
Elon Musk’s Many Korean Fans Have Built a $15 Billion Tesla Stake. Individual Koreans held about 1.6% of the company’s equity as of Aug. 17, according to calculations by Bloomberg News based on data from Korea’s central securities depository. That’s more than their combined investments in Alphabet, Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia, the data show. There are no official figures on the total holdings of US retail traders in Tesla, which is assumed to be larger given the bigger pool of investors in its home market. Giacomo Pierantoni, head of data at Singapore-based Vanda Research, estimates that individuals globally, excluding Musk and Ellison, own about 15% of the company.
Elon Musk’s Many Korean Fans Have Built a $15 Billion Tesla Stake. Individual Koreans held about 1.6% of the company’s equity as of Aug. 17, according to calculations by Bloomberg News based on data from Korea’s central securities depository. That’s more than their combined investments in Alphabet, Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia, the data show. There are no official figures on the total holdings of US retail traders in Tesla, which is assumed to be larger given the bigger pool of investors in its home market. Giacomo Pierantoni, head of data at Singapore-based Vanda Research, estimates that individuals globally, excluding Musk and Ellison, own about 15% of the company.
Bottom-line: 싱가폴에서 15년만에 열린 소더비의 경매에서 1,750만 달러 규모의 작품이 팔렸고, 절반 가까운 작품이 가장 높은 견적보다 비싸게 낙찰됨. 전년도 싱가폴의 수집가들은 미술품과 시계 등을 전세계에서 수집했는데, 특히 서로 비교되는 홍콩에 대한 중국의 간섭이 심해지며 싱가폴이 부유한 사람들의 안전한 항구 역할을 하고 있음.
Sotheby’s said it sold art works worth nearly S$24.5 million ($17.5 million) in its first auction in Singapore in 15 years, beating a pre-sale estimate of about S$18 million. Nearly half of the works in the sale achieved prices over their high estimates, the auction house said in a statement after proceedings. Walter Spies’s Tierfabel (Animal Fable) sold for just over S$4 million, while a Willem Gerard Hofker composition went for about S$2.3 million and nearly double its high estimate, it said. The auction’s success marks an important milestone in the city-state’s positioning as Asia’s next key art hub amid a growing collector base. Singapore has become a safe harbor for some of the region’s wealthiest in recent years with rival Hong Kong losing appeal due to China’s increasing grip on the former British colony. Last year, Singaporean collectors were particularly active globally across categories including modern Asian art and watches, according to Sotheby’s.
Sotheby’s said it sold art works worth nearly S$24.5 million ($17.5 million) in its first auction in Singapore in 15 years, beating a pre-sale estimate of about S$18 million. Nearly half of the works in the sale achieved prices over their high estimates, the auction house said in a statement after proceedings. Walter Spies’s Tierfabel (Animal Fable) sold for just over S$4 million, while a Willem Gerard Hofker composition went for about S$2.3 million and nearly double its high estimate, it said. The auction’s success marks an important milestone in the city-state’s positioning as Asia’s next key art hub amid a growing collector base. Singapore has become a safe harbor for some of the region’s wealthiest in recent years with rival Hong Kong losing appeal due to China’s increasing grip on the former British colony. Last year, Singaporean collectors were particularly active globally across categories including modern Asian art and watches, according to Sotheby’s.
Bottom-line: 한국 중앙은행은 미국보다 앞서 긴축을 중단하지 않을 것이며, 미국 중앙은행이 설정하는 정책금리보다 약간 모자르게 계속 따를 것이라 함.
Bank of Korea Won’t Stop Tightening Before Fed, Rhee Says. South Korea’s central bank suggested it may raise interest rates again to tame inflation as the US Federal Reserve also pledged to combat higher prices. Governor Rhee Chang-yong told Reuters in an interview Saturday that the Bank of Korea isn’t likely to halt its tightening measures before the US Federal Reserve. The comments were made during the Jackson Hole conference in Wyoming. Rhee said the Fed’s decision on further tightening would put pressure on the South Korean won to depreciate and added that he was ready to intervene to stabilize the currency. In Seoul, Prime Minister Han Duck-soo told Korean Broadcasting System in an interview Sunday he expects the degree and speed of interest rate increases to be “slightly less than that of the US.”. BOK Governor Rhee last week presided over a 25 basis point rate increase and hinted that the bank’s stance was to continue with hikes of this smaller size, spelling out his position on the pace of tightening to rein in prices and support the currency while keeping the economy ticking over.
Bank of Korea Won’t Stop Tightening Before Fed, Rhee Says. South Korea’s central bank suggested it may raise interest rates again to tame inflation as the US Federal Reserve also pledged to combat higher prices. Governor Rhee Chang-yong told Reuters in an interview Saturday that the Bank of Korea isn’t likely to halt its tightening measures before the US Federal Reserve. The comments were made during the Jackson Hole conference in Wyoming. Rhee said the Fed’s decision on further tightening would put pressure on the South Korean won to depreciate and added that he was ready to intervene to stabilize the currency. In Seoul, Prime Minister Han Duck-soo told Korean Broadcasting System in an interview Sunday he expects the degree and speed of interest rate increases to be “slightly less than that of the US.”. BOK Governor Rhee last week presided over a 25 basis point rate increase and hinted that the bank’s stance was to continue with hikes of this smaller size, spelling out his position on the pace of tightening to rein in prices and support the currency while keeping the economy ticking over.
Bottom-line: 투자자들은 잭슨홀에서의 연설을 통해 어쩌면 중앙은행의 최종금리가 4%가 아닌 5%에 가까울 수 있다는 생각을 가지게 됨. 이런 기대가 형성되면서 미국 국채 10년물 금리과 2년물 금리의 차이가 최대 -60bp까지 확대될 수도 있어보이며, 이는 닷컴 버블 시대의 -56bp를 다시 한 번 돌파하는 것임.
It’s possible the terminal rate is much higher than market pricing and what some Fed speakers telegraphed. That has some investors banking on more flattening of the yield curve, according to dealer desks. Bond traders found the pithiness of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech Friday refreshing, and his hawkish message left some macro hedge funds and real money accounts projecting the Fed’s end point might be closer to 5% than 4%. Problem is Fed swaps price a ~3.81% terminal rate in 2023, up only a smidge from Thursday. Fedspeakers, for their part, also see a range of outcomes. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester favors hiking above 4% and holding, while St. Louis Fed’s James Bullard repeated his preference for 3.75%-4% by year end. And Atlanta’s Raphael Bostic finds favor with the 3.5% to 3.75% range. If 4.5% to 5% becomes the base case, the next destination on the 2s10s curve is to revisit the Dot.com bust levels of -56 bps on its way to breaching the current August low at -58 bps. Analysts at BMO Capital Markets believe all roads lead to -60 bps. And for 5s30s, given the indication of longer restrictive rate levels, -30 bps is the target for some investors.
It’s possible the terminal rate is much higher than market pricing and what some Fed speakers telegraphed. That has some investors banking on more flattening of the yield curve, according to dealer desks. Bond traders found the pithiness of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech Friday refreshing, and his hawkish message left some macro hedge funds and real money accounts projecting the Fed’s end point might be closer to 5% than 4%. Problem is Fed swaps price a ~3.81% terminal rate in 2023, up only a smidge from Thursday. Fedspeakers, for their part, also see a range of outcomes. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester favors hiking above 4% and holding, while St. Louis Fed’s James Bullard repeated his preference for 3.75%-4% by year end. And Atlanta’s Raphael Bostic finds favor with the 3.5% to 3.75% range. If 4.5% to 5% becomes the base case, the next destination on the 2s10s curve is to revisit the Dot.com bust levels of -56 bps on its way to breaching the current August low at -58 bps. Analysts at BMO Capital Markets believe all roads lead to -60 bps. And for 5s30s, given the indication of longer restrictive rate levels, -30 bps is the target for some investors.
IB Report: 당사의 의견은 세 가지로 요약할 수 있는데, i) 여러 악조건에도 불구 올해 경기침체는 간신히 피할 것, ii) 인플레이션은 하락과 상승 부분의 상충으로 중앙은행이 만족할 수준에 도달하지 못할 것, iii) 중앙은행의 금리인상은 끝나지 않았다는 것임. 중앙은행의 추가적인 금리인상은 경기확장 국면을 조기에 끝낼 것으로 보임. (J.P.Morgan / When you go your way, and I go mine)
Our global outlook can be summarized in three easy pieces. First, the global expansion looks likely to skirt recession despite being buffeted by multiple adverse shocks during 1H22. Healthy private sector balance sheets provided a cushion that will be reinforced in 2H22 by fading supply-side drags and additional fiscal stimulus. Second, inflation is falling but not set to return to central bank comfort zones as rising labor costs and shifting inflation psychology will partially offset the fading of energy and pandemic-related price pressures. Finally, central banks have moved aggressively this year (policy rates outside China are up 156bp) but are not done. We expect further 125bp rate increases from the Fed, BoE, and ECB by year-end, based on the judgment that they belatedly recognize that the inflation process has changed in a manner that requires restrictive stances. Chair Powell expressed this view today at Jackson Hole, where he emphasized that “estimates of longer-run neutral rates are not a place to stop or pause” and that “restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time to come.” The upshot of these views is that the price of skirting recession will be hawkish central banks, sluggish growth, and limited disinflation. A growing concern is that this environment convinces central banks that sluggish growth is not sufficient to bring inflation back to target and that their additional tightening becomes the catalyst for an early end to the expansion.
Our global outlook can be summarized in three easy pieces. First, the global expansion looks likely to skirt recession despite being buffeted by multiple adverse shocks during 1H22. Healthy private sector balance sheets provided a cushion that will be reinforced in 2H22 by fading supply-side drags and additional fiscal stimulus. Second, inflation is falling but not set to return to central bank comfort zones as rising labor costs and shifting inflation psychology will partially offset the fading of energy and pandemic-related price pressures. Finally, central banks have moved aggressively this year (policy rates outside China are up 156bp) but are not done. We expect further 125bp rate increases from the Fed, BoE, and ECB by year-end, based on the judgment that they belatedly recognize that the inflation process has changed in a manner that requires restrictive stances. Chair Powell expressed this view today at Jackson Hole, where he emphasized that “estimates of longer-run neutral rates are not a place to stop or pause” and that “restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time to come.” The upshot of these views is that the price of skirting recession will be hawkish central banks, sluggish growth, and limited disinflation. A growing concern is that this environment convinces central banks that sluggish growth is not sufficient to bring inflation back to target and that their additional tightening becomes the catalyst for an early end to the expansion.