Bottom-line: 인민은행은 위안화 절하의 폭 뿐만 아니라 속도에도 민감한 것 같은데, 지난 4월~5월 4% 수준의 절하 때보다 덜한 상태(2.4% 절하)에도 불구 애널리스트 예상치보다 59pips 더 높은 절상 고시를 하고 있음. 이 정도 차이는 2019년 달러 대비 위안이 7을 넘어섰을 때 강도며, 위안화 약세를 저지하겠다는 강한 신호임.
The People’s Bank of China has sent strong signals that it doesn’t want an excessively weak currency. That shows that Beijing cares as much about the speed of the decline as it does about the actual exchange rate. As the yuan resumed its depreciation after months of stability, the PBOC consistently has set its fixing stronger than analysts expected in recent days. The average deviation between the fixing and analysts’ forecast in Bloomberg surveys over the past five days amounted to 59 pips, the strongest since 2019 when the yuan was trading at more than 7 per dollar. The last time that the PBOC showed a strengthening bias was in late April and early May when the currency fell a record 4% in a month. This time, the depreciation has been more modest – with the yuan falling 2.4% over the past month to 6.9 per dollar. But the fixing support has been stronger than it was in April, suggesting that the PBOC’s tolerance for further depreciation is lower. It shows how there is more sensitivity to the level of the exchange rate as the yuan inches toward 7 per dollar.
The People’s Bank of China has sent strong signals that it doesn’t want an excessively weak currency. That shows that Beijing cares as much about the speed of the decline as it does about the actual exchange rate. As the yuan resumed its depreciation after months of stability, the PBOC consistently has set its fixing stronger than analysts expected in recent days. The average deviation between the fixing and analysts’ forecast in Bloomberg surveys over the past five days amounted to 59 pips, the strongest since 2019 when the yuan was trading at more than 7 per dollar. The last time that the PBOC showed a strengthening bias was in late April and early May when the currency fell a record 4% in a month. This time, the depreciation has been more modest – with the yuan falling 2.4% over the past month to 6.9 per dollar. But the fixing support has been stronger than it was in April, suggesting that the PBOC’s tolerance for further depreciation is lower. It shows how there is more sensitivity to the level of the exchange rate as the yuan inches toward 7 per dollar.
Bottom-line: 주가지수가 하락했음에도 불구 지난 11번의 약세장 평균 주가수익비율보다 한참 위에 있으며, 만일 여기서 반등으로 정상화 될 경우 역사상 가장 비싼 바닥으로 기록 될 것임. 이 외 월말의 경우 80억 달러 규모 주식을 변동성에 기반해 매수한 알고리즘 펀드가 이제는 100억~150억 달러 규모의 주식 매도자로, 연기금 또한 월말 자산배분 재조정에 따른 100억 달러 규모의 주식 매도자 역할을 할 것임.
Despite a massive valuation correction, stocks are still far from being obvious bargains. At the low in June, the S&P 500 was trading at 18 times earnings, a multiple that exceeded trough valuations seen in all previous 11 bear cycles since the 1950s. Put another way, should stocks bounce from here, this bear market bottom will have been the most expensive on record. The trading desk warned about further selling pressure from computer-driven traders as well as funds that need to rebalance their asset allocation at the end of the month. Systematic macro strategies, who were buyers of an estimated $8 billion of equities last week, will now flip to sellers this week, potentially unloading $10 to $15 billion of stocks as volatility picks up, the team’s model shows. Meanwhile, pension and asset allocators are likely to sell $10 billion of shares.
Despite a massive valuation correction, stocks are still far from being obvious bargains. At the low in June, the S&P 500 was trading at 18 times earnings, a multiple that exceeded trough valuations seen in all previous 11 bear cycles since the 1950s. Put another way, should stocks bounce from here, this bear market bottom will have been the most expensive on record. The trading desk warned about further selling pressure from computer-driven traders as well as funds that need to rebalance their asset allocation at the end of the month. Systematic macro strategies, who were buyers of an estimated $8 billion of equities last week, will now flip to sellers this week, potentially unloading $10 to $15 billion of stocks as volatility picks up, the team’s model shows. Meanwhile, pension and asset allocators are likely to sell $10 billion of shares.
Bottom-line: 아시아 통화 지수가 1997년 이후 가장 큰 폭인 -7.2% 하락하며 2004년 수준으로 내려 옴. 달러 대비 통화 절하는 중앙은행에게 긴축을 더 해야한다는 압력으로 작용할 것임.
Yuan Drop Is Bad News for Asian Central Banks’ Inflation Fight. A falling yuan is dragging down other Asian currencies with it, which may necessitate more tightening by central banks in the region. The Bloomberg JPMorgan Asian Dollar Index is falling toward its lowest level since 2004. It’s slumped 7.2% so far in 2022, which would be the biggest annual slide since the Asian financial crisis in 1997. A deepening drop in the onshore yuan, which makes up 41.8% of the index, has been amplifying depreciation pressures on the regional currencies, along with Fed policy tightening and dollar strength that ensues.
Yuan Drop Is Bad News for Asian Central Banks’ Inflation Fight. A falling yuan is dragging down other Asian currencies with it, which may necessitate more tightening by central banks in the region. The Bloomberg JPMorgan Asian Dollar Index is falling toward its lowest level since 2004. It’s slumped 7.2% so far in 2022, which would be the biggest annual slide since the Asian financial crisis in 1997. A deepening drop in the onshore yuan, which makes up 41.8% of the index, has been amplifying depreciation pressures on the regional currencies, along with Fed policy tightening and dollar strength that ensues.
Bottom-line: 투자 심리가 안정되며 아시아 증시 전반적 상승, 중국은 위안화 절상을 연속으로 고시하며 환율 방어에 대한 강한 의지를 표시함.
An Asian stock gauge rose Tuesday as investor sentiment stabilized following a rout sparked by the Federal Reserve’s signal of a sustained period of restrictive monetary policy to quell inflation. Treasury yields dipped and the dollar was steady. Oil remained in sight of the highest level since late July on potential Libyan production outages. Gold inched lower while Bitcoin made modest gains. In China, the central bank set a stronger-than-expected yuan fixing for a fifth day, a sign it doesn’t want an excessively weak currency. The move highlights how greenback strength is a challenge for Asia as the region’s currencies slip. There’s “more pain ahead” for the yuan and a fall to 7 per US dollar looks likely, Divya Devesh, a foreign exchange strategist at Standard Chartered Plc, said on Bloomberg Television.
An Asian stock gauge rose Tuesday as investor sentiment stabilized following a rout sparked by the Federal Reserve’s signal of a sustained period of restrictive monetary policy to quell inflation. Treasury yields dipped and the dollar was steady. Oil remained in sight of the highest level since late July on potential Libyan production outages. Gold inched lower while Bitcoin made modest gains. In China, the central bank set a stronger-than-expected yuan fixing for a fifth day, a sign it doesn’t want an excessively weak currency. The move highlights how greenback strength is a challenge for Asia as the region’s currencies slip. There’s “more pain ahead” for the yuan and a fall to 7 per US dollar looks likely, Divya Devesh, a foreign exchange strategist at Standard Chartered Plc, said on Bloomberg Television.
Bottom-line: 잭슨홀의 매는 중앙은행이 금리인상을 곧 멈출 것이란 기대를 완전히 잡아먹지 못한 것 같음. 완화적 정책 기대감은 사라졌지만, 파월의 연설 전에 대부분 일어난 일이며 이후의 추가적 움직임은 강하지 않기 때문임.
Jackson Hole Hawkishness Fails to Completely Quash Pivot Bets. The fallout of Jerome Powell’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech continues to ripple through financial markets with the surprising exception of Eurodollar bets on rate cuts next year. While expectations for monetary easing have clearly been pared, all of the damage was done before the Fed Chair spoke. On Monday last week, a gauge of implied rate moves had wiped out all bets of a cut in the first half of 2023, but they have edged back by a couple of basis points since, and were unaffected by the speech itself. The same pattern can be seen in predictions for the second half where market pricing for around 35 basis points of cuts has been pretty steady for a week and a half now. That’s even as Treasury yields climbed in the aftermath of Powell’s unequivocally hawkish remarks.
Jackson Hole Hawkishness Fails to Completely Quash Pivot Bets. The fallout of Jerome Powell’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech continues to ripple through financial markets with the surprising exception of Eurodollar bets on rate cuts next year. While expectations for monetary easing have clearly been pared, all of the damage was done before the Fed Chair spoke. On Monday last week, a gauge of implied rate moves had wiped out all bets of a cut in the first half of 2023, but they have edged back by a couple of basis points since, and were unaffected by the speech itself. The same pattern can be seen in predictions for the second half where market pricing for around 35 basis points of cuts has been pretty steady for a week and a half now. That’s even as Treasury yields climbed in the aftermath of Powell’s unequivocally hawkish remarks.
Bottom-line: 하지만 채권 시장은 연옥에 가까워지고 있음.
Bonds are sliding toward the first bear market in a generation, burning investors who erred in bets that central banks would pivot away from rapid interest-rate hikes. The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index, which tracks total returns from investment-grade government and corporate bonds, is within a percentage point of falling 20% from its peak after another bout of selling following the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium.
Bonds are sliding toward the first bear market in a generation, burning investors who erred in bets that central banks would pivot away from rapid interest-rate hikes. The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index, which tracks total returns from investment-grade government and corporate bonds, is within a percentage point of falling 20% from its peak after another bout of selling following the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium.
Bottom-line: 중앙은행이 가파른 금리인상 기조를 되돌릴 것이란 잘못 된 기대로 저점 대비 13% 상승한 세계주가지수, 전략가는 이러한 기대가 더 이상 유효하지 않고 당분간 낮은 성장, 높은 물가, 침체 위험 속에 고통스러운 시간을 보낼 수 있기 때문에 주식비중 축소를 권고함.
Credit Suisse Group AG recommended investors to go underweight global equities following the Jackson Hole symposium, where central bankers doubled down on their bid to tame inflation through higher interest rates. The argument for an early dovish pivot by the Federal Reserve and other major central banks is now “clearly out of the window,” Michael Strobaek, global chief investment officer at the European bank, wrote in a note on Monday. Markets are now confronted with slowing growth, rising recession risks and elevated inflation, and “the next few months are thus likely going to be painful,” he said. Stock traders worldwide had wrongly bet the Fed may signal a slowdown in its tightening at Jackson Hole, leading to a 13% rally in the MSCI World Index from its trough to peak between June and August. Global stocks saw intense two-day selloff as Chair Jerome Powell on Friday erased any lingering hopes of an early shift to looser monetary policy.
Credit Suisse Group AG recommended investors to go underweight global equities following the Jackson Hole symposium, where central bankers doubled down on their bid to tame inflation through higher interest rates. The argument for an early dovish pivot by the Federal Reserve and other major central banks is now “clearly out of the window,” Michael Strobaek, global chief investment officer at the European bank, wrote in a note on Monday. Markets are now confronted with slowing growth, rising recession risks and elevated inflation, and “the next few months are thus likely going to be painful,” he said. Stock traders worldwide had wrongly bet the Fed may signal a slowdown in its tightening at Jackson Hole, leading to a 13% rally in the MSCI World Index from its trough to peak between June and August. Global stocks saw intense two-day selloff as Chair Jerome Powell on Friday erased any lingering hopes of an early shift to looser monetary policy.
Bottom-line: 인플레이션과 에너지 부족으로 고통 받는 유럽의 신뢰지수는 18개월래 최저치로 떨어짐.
Euro-Area Confidence Dips to 19-Month Low as Recession Nears. Euro-area economic confidence dropped to its lowest level in 1 1/2 years as inflation breaks record after record and limited energy supplies push the region closer to a recession. A gauge from the European Commission fell to 97.6 in August from 99 the previous month, data Tuesday showed. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had expected a decline to 98.
Euro-Area Confidence Dips to 19-Month Low as Recession Nears. Euro-area economic confidence dropped to its lowest level in 1 1/2 years as inflation breaks record after record and limited energy supplies push the region closer to a recession. A gauge from the European Commission fell to 97.6 in August from 99 the previous month, data Tuesday showed. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had expected a decline to 98.
The Chinese Communist Party’s twice-a-decade leadership congress will begin on Oct. 16, state media said, bringing President Xi Jinping a step closer to an unprecedented third term in power.
Bottom-line: 잭슨홀 이후 주식시장의 큰 폭 하락에 만족했던 연준 인사에 투자자들도 마찬가지로 동의한 것 같지 않은데, 중앙은행의 심각함을 투자자들은 이해하지 못했다고 할 수 있음.
The question is whether investors agree with Kashkari, who was “happy” to see Friday’s rout. So far there’s few signs of panic. If equity investors still haven’t fully have grasped the Fed’s seriousness - and especially if data suggest a slowdown, then more downside is in play.
The question is whether investors agree with Kashkari, who was “happy” to see Friday’s rout. So far there’s few signs of panic. If equity investors still haven’t fully have grasped the Fed’s seriousness - and especially if data suggest a slowdown, then more downside is in play.
Stocks Slip With News of Warning Shots at Chinese Drone. TAIWAN’S MILITARY FIRED WARNING SHOTS AT CHINESE DRONE.
Bottom-line: 어머?!
Oh my. If there is a slacking in labor demand, it isn’t evident from the JOLTS data, which surprisingly posted job openings of 11.239 million, roughly 850k more than expected! The prior month’s data was also revised significantly higher, and the jobs per unemployed metric has risen from 1.87 to 1.98 -- nearly back to the cyclical peak.
Oh my. If there is a slacking in labor demand, it isn’t evident from the JOLTS data, which surprisingly posted job openings of 11.239 million, roughly 850k more than expected! The prior month’s data was also revised significantly higher, and the jobs per unemployed metric has risen from 1.87 to 1.98 -- nearly back to the cyclical peak.