China’s credit jumped much more than expected last month to the highest on record for June due to a strong rebound in bank lending and record government bond sales. Aggregate financing, a broad measure of credit, reached 5.2 trillion yuan ($775 billion), the People’s Bank of China said Monday. That was the highest for any June in comparable data back to 2017 and beat the consensus estimate of 4.2 trillion yuan. Financial institutions made 2.8 trillion yuan of new loans in the month, also better than economists’ projection. The end of the lockdown of Shanghai in June may have contributed to the increase in borrowing demand. The data indicates that stimulus from the central bank and government is starting to have an effect on boosting the supply of credit to the economy.

함의: 중국 정부의 경기부양 노력이 신용 공급 증가로 가시화되고 있음.

BlackRock Warns Against Dip Buying as High-Volatility Era Dawns. There’s no quick recovery in sight for stocks and bonds that are having their worst year in at least three decades, according to strategists at BlackRock Inc. Russia’s grinding war in Ukraine and supply bottlenecks from labor shortages will keep the pace of price growth elevated. Central banks will tighten policy until the economic pain forces them to shift direction and live with inflation. Constrained by the “hyper-politicization of everything,” policy makers will struggle to tackle the fallout.

함의: 블랙락은 30년래 최악의 시기를 보내고 있는 주식과 채권의 성과가 단기에 회복할 것이란 기대로 섣부른 매수를 하는게 위험하다고 경고함.

When Wall Street analysts were as bullish on stocks as they are now, while investors were bearish, history shows it’s the prognosticators that are usually right. The gap between analysts’ 12-month target and current prices for US major averages have widened this year as gloomy investors sent stocks plunging while strategists stood by their optimistic views. Monthly data doing back to 2004 identified four previous instances when the S&P 500’s projected returns (the gap between strategist 12-month forecasts and spot prices) were equal or higher than the 25.5% as of Thursday’s close. The benchmark posted an average gain of 24.9% a year later, rising three our of the four times. Analysts called for an average of 28.9% gain back then.

함의: 이 정도 지수 격차에서는 애널리스트 추정에 결국 수렴함.

The US housing market saw a rise in the percentage of deals cancelled in June as rising mortgage rates made homes more expensive, pushing some buyers to walk away from deals. Across the country, nearly 60,000 home sales fell through, according to an analysis by Redfin Corp. That was equal to 15% of transactions that went into contract that month, the highest share of cancellations since April 2020, when early Covid lockdowns froze the housing market.

함의: 미국에서 주택가격 및 대출이자 상승으로 부동산 거래의 15%가 취소됐으며, 이는 2020년 4월 이후 최고치임.

Stocks dropped Monday as traders await the key second-quarter earnings season for indications on how companies are weathering the inflation storm. A dollar gauge climbed to the highest level since 2020.

The euro is again flirting with dollar parity today, and once again there is nothing on the macroeconomic side to stop it breaching that level. The slow roll of ECB tightening, coupled with the increasingly severe economic outlook for Germany, means that on a relative basis there seems to be little reason to prefer the common currency over the dollar.

함의: 달러 외 대안이 없어지며 유로는 패리티에 근접함.

Treasury volatility ain't going away, analysts say. Not with CPI pending. The ICE BofA MOVE index is just shy of its March 2020 peak and shorter-term measures based on options on rate swaps have already exceeded those levels. Big intraday yield moves are occurring with alarming frequency. In the past month, the 10-year yield's daily range topped 15 bps 10 times, three of those in July.

함의: 채권 변동성이 지속 확대되며 10년물 채권 금리가 일 중에도 15bps 움직이는 일이 빈번, 변동성이 낮아질 기미가 보이지 않음.

Think risk factors instead of asset classes, Mohamed El-Erian writes. A risk-factor approach is particularly helpful in understanding the impact of economics and policy on markets this year. The path forward for markets will depend on the Fed, the strength of the labor market and inflation.

함의: 올해 시장 대응은 자산군보다 중앙은행, 노동시장, 물가로 구분되는 위험요소를 중심으로 한 접근이 더 효율적임.

The founders of bankrupt crypto hedge fund Three Arrows Capital haven’t been cooperating in the firm’s liquidation process and their whereabouts were unknown as of Friday, according to court papers. Representatives tapped to liquidate Three Arrows by a British Virgin Islands judge had “not yet received any meaningful cooperation” from Kyle Davies and Zhu Su, lawyers said in US bankruptcy court filings. Advisory firm Teneo is attempting to round up and preserve the assets of the hedge fund. 

함의: 가상화폐의 그들은 '가상' 속으로 사라짐.

Long-held economic theory says that just the expectation that inflation will accelerate will cause actual inflation to accelerate. The thinking here is that if consumers expect prices for goods and services to rapidly increase in the near future, they will buy earlier, faster and in bulk, which causes those prices to rise faster than they would otherwise. Makes sense, but can the same be said about a recession? Sure, and it may be happening now and in real time. If people fear that the economy is about to take a turn for the worse, they will reduce spending, trade down to cheaper brands, postpone consumption and economize in general. The net effect if enough people take such action would be a recession.

함의: 경기침체의 실제 여부를 떠나, 가계 주체들이 그렇게 체감하면 경기침체에 맞는 행태를 보이게 됨.

Chinese stocks plunged in the US as investors digested news about Covid and fines levied on tech giants. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 7.1%, the biggest one-day drop since May.

함의: 미국 대비 견조했던 중국 주식도 악재를 더 반영하기 시작함.

"I invent nothing, I rediscover."

- Auguste Rodin

Gap Inc. fired Chief Executive Officer Sonia Syngal after 2 1/2 years, with rising costs and deepening discounts threatening to wipe out this quarter’s operating profit. Chairman Bob Martin is taking over immediately as CEO on an interim basis, the company announced in a statement. Gap has reported operational missteps and swelling inventory levels recently, sparking declines in the stock market. Old Navy, which is responsible for the biggest part of Gap’s revenue, has been particularly affected, and in April announced the departure of that business’s top executive. 

함의: 원가 상승과 지나친 할인으로 이익이 소멸 직전인 낮은 가격 장벽의 의류 업체가 최고경영자에 책임을 물어 해고함.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists led by Marko Kolanovic advised investors to further cut holdings in corporate debt while reducing underweight positions in bonds, in what amounts to a softening in their broad risk-on stance. While staying upbeat about a second-half rebound in stocks and commodities, the strategists reduced their credit exposure as a “partial hedge in an adverse scenario.” The revision also reflects a view that corporate bonds have yet to price in as much recession risk as assets like equities. 

함의: J.P.Morgan 전략가는 회사채는 주식보다 작금의 위험을 덜 반영한 것으로 보여 비중을 축소하라고 권고함.

Iran is preparing to provide Russia with hundreds of drone aircraft, including some capable of carrying weaponry, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said Monday. Sullivan said US intelligence “indicates that the Iranian government is preparing to provide Russia with up to several hundred UAVs, including weapons-capable UAVs, on an expedited timeline.” He didn’t detail the intelligence or its sources. “Our information further indicates Iran is preparing to train Russian forces to use these UAVs, with initial training sessions slated to begin as soon as early July,” Sullivan told reporters during a press briefing.

함의: 이란이 무기를 탑재하는 드론을 러시아에 제공할 준비를 하고 있고, 이를 미국이 포착했음.

Australia’s largest pension fund sees the global economy struggling for about two more years as businesses and households adjust to tighter monetary and fiscal policies. 
Investors have been conditioned to think that market pullbacks are a short-term phenomenon but the current crisis is different, according to Mark Delaney, chief investment officer of the A$260 billion ($175 billion) pension giant AustralianSuper Pty. “It takes 12 months to two years for tighter monetary policy to impact on the economy -- and monetary policy is just getting tight now,” Delaney said in an interview with Bloomberg in London. “That would tell you that the downturn is coming in 18 months time.” 

함의: 호주 연기금은 긴축 사이클의 경제 파급효과가 1~2년, 침체는 1년 반 뒤 도래할 가능성이 있으므로 시장 하락이 단기간에 끝날 것으로 생각하지 않는다 함.

What leading indicators should investors watch to monitor the risk of falling into a recession in real time? We rank potential leading indicators by their leading properties and real time accuracy, and find that ISM new orders and other manufacturing surveys, consumer expectations, and initial jobless claims rank highly. The series that score the best on both dimensions have slowed in recent months—the three-month averages of the 10 highest-ranked indicators are consistent with slightly positive growth on average, though the very latest prints point to negative growth. We continue to see a 30% probability of entering a recession over the next year and nearly even odds at a two-year horizon. But the softening of leading indicators in June highlights the importance of monitoring more immediate downside risks.

보고서: 경기침체 속에도 고용은 탄탄하게 보일 수 있으나, 신규주문, 소비자심리, 실업수당청구건수는 침체를 모니터링하기에 적절함. (Goldman Sachs - Are We Already in a Recession?)

The axe was smart and convinced the trees because his handle was made of wood, he was one of them.

함의: 최근 자본시장과 거시경제 해석을 보며 드는 생각은, 숲을 파괴하는 도끼 손잡이가 나무로 만들어졌다해서 친구인가?

All eyes will be on the euro Tuesday as it tumbles toward parity with the US dollar -- a level last seen 20 years ago. Energy concerns and the risk of recession are weighing on the outlook for Europe, while risk aversion fueled a broad rally in the greenback. There’s a vicious cycle breaking out for the euro, too, much like for the yen, as each of those economies have central banks that are less flexible and more dovish than the Fed. Even as the yield gap to the US narrows the euro keeps falling. Given that the common currency is the most-traded against the dollar, and the yen is the second-most, declines in the two currencies help to feed broader dollar strength.

함의: 침체 위기에 가장 근접한 유로의 약세, 엔화의 약세로 달러 지수의 강세가 지속 될 것으로 보임.

Nations are experiencing the first global energy crisis and “we might not yet have seen the worst of it,” Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, says Tuesday at a forum in Sydney.

함의: 에너지 위기는 현재가 끝이 아닐 수 있음.

Chinese electric-car giant BYD Co. slumped as much as 11% on Tuesday after a stake matching the size of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s appeared in Hong Kong’s stock-market clearing system, fueling speculation that Warren Buffett’s firm may be adjusting its holdings. Berkshire Hathaway held a 20.49% stake in BYD, according to Bloomberg data based on a December filing. Most of the share moves took place in accounts held by Citibank, according to exchange figures. “For BYD, we are seeing more than 20% of stake moved to the CCASS system. Only Berkshire would have that many shares as a single investor, so the market is worried Buffett is planning to sell,” said Steven Leung, executive director at UOB Kay Hian in Hong Kong. 

함의: 의미있는 투자자의 이탈 가능성에 하락.