Bottom-line: 경기악화 우려에도 불구 인플레이션을 통제하기 위한 중앙은행의 움직임이 다음 주 연이어 있을 것임. 유럽 중앙은행이 75bp 인상 가능성이 있으며, 그 외 다른 중앙은행들도 금리인상에 동참할 것으로 예상됨.
Central banks around the globe are set to continue an assault on high inflation this week, even as vulnerabilities in their economies become ever clearer. Northern-hemisphere policy makers are forecast to deliver the more aggressive actions. Unprecedented tightening in the form of a 75-basis-point rate increase is expected from the European Central Bank on Thursday, a day after the Bank of Canada hikes by a similar amount. That would follow half-point moves anticipated on Tuesday in Australia and Chile. At least five other central banks around the world are also expected to raise rates in the coming week.
Central banks around the globe are set to continue an assault on high inflation this week, even as vulnerabilities in their economies become ever clearer. Northern-hemisphere policy makers are forecast to deliver the more aggressive actions. Unprecedented tightening in the form of a 75-basis-point rate increase is expected from the European Central Bank on Thursday, a day after the Bank of Canada hikes by a similar amount. That would follow half-point moves anticipated on Tuesday in Australia and Chile. At least five other central banks around the world are also expected to raise rates in the coming week.
IB Report: 미국 경제 데이터는 강한 회복력을 시사한 반면, 여타의 경제국은 더욱 불안정해지고 있는 바 추가적인 달러 강세를 전망함. 이러한 전망에 따라 달러 대비 유로화 절파폭도 기존보다 더 강하게 보며, 3개월 0.97, 6개월 097, 12개월 1.05로 함. 12개월 전망에는 높아진 금리가 일부 자본유입을 줄 수 있을것이란 기대가 담겨있음. (Goldman Sachs / More Dollar Strength Ahead)
Recent economic data have reinforced the resiliency of the US economy, and policymakers are still not convinced that it would be appropriate to slow the pace of rate hikes. At the same time, the outlook in the rest of the world is still on shakier ground, and policymakers in Europe face a much more difficult trade-off in the face of a severe supply shock. We think this environment argues for further Dollar appreciation in the near term, and are therefore making a number of adjustments to our G10 Dollar forecasts. In particular, we are moving our EUR/USD forecast to 0.97, 0.97 and 1.05 in 3, 6 and 12 months (from 0.99, 1.02 and 1.15 previously). This moves our baseline partway to the ‘downside’ scenarios we discussed over the summer. While the Euro area has made good progress in amassing gas storage for the coming winter, this has come at the cost of significant demand destruction via production cuts, and does not totally eliminate the risk of a more severe disruption over the winter. And, we still think the ECB’s response to the growth shock will be secondary for the currency; they are unlikely to fully offset the shift in the growth outlook, and more rapid rate rises into a growth slowdown would likely compound the credit shock to the periphery. But this is also more than a tactical shift in our view. Our previous 12m EUR/USD forecasts embedded some expectation that higher rates would catalyze a shift in capital flows back to Europe, which no longer seems likely given the deterioration in European energy security and the higher cost of production that entails. While there is still significant uncertainty about the medium and longer-term outlook, we think the situation warrants a more cautious baseline outlook, and therefore an even more persistent period of Dollar strength.
Recent economic data have reinforced the resiliency of the US economy, and policymakers are still not convinced that it would be appropriate to slow the pace of rate hikes. At the same time, the outlook in the rest of the world is still on shakier ground, and policymakers in Europe face a much more difficult trade-off in the face of a severe supply shock. We think this environment argues for further Dollar appreciation in the near term, and are therefore making a number of adjustments to our G10 Dollar forecasts. In particular, we are moving our EUR/USD forecast to 0.97, 0.97 and 1.05 in 3, 6 and 12 months (from 0.99, 1.02 and 1.15 previously). This moves our baseline partway to the ‘downside’ scenarios we discussed over the summer. While the Euro area has made good progress in amassing gas storage for the coming winter, this has come at the cost of significant demand destruction via production cuts, and does not totally eliminate the risk of a more severe disruption over the winter. And, we still think the ECB’s response to the growth shock will be secondary for the currency; they are unlikely to fully offset the shift in the growth outlook, and more rapid rate rises into a growth slowdown would likely compound the credit shock to the periphery. But this is also more than a tactical shift in our view. Our previous 12m EUR/USD forecasts embedded some expectation that higher rates would catalyze a shift in capital flows back to Europe, which no longer seems likely given the deterioration in European energy security and the higher cost of production that entails. While there is still significant uncertainty about the medium and longer-term outlook, we think the situation warrants a more cautious baseline outlook, and therefore an even more persistent period of Dollar strength.
IB Report: 유럽 중앙은행이 전례없는 75bp 금리인상을 할 가능성에 더 가까워지고 있음. 정책금리는 내년 3월이면 2%에 도달할 것이며, 이는 몇몇 인사들이 언급한 수준임. 유럽 중앙은행 인사들은 당분간 '경기침체'라는 표현을 사용하진 않겠지만, 인플레이션 예상은 상향하고 성장률 전망은 하향할 것으로 생각됨. (Morgan Stanley / ECB to Accelerate Hiking)
With limited data releases next week, the focus will be on the ECB's meeting on Thursday, where views seem to have rapidly shifted and an unprecedented 75bps hike seems to be on the cards. We think policy rates could reach 2% next March: a terminal rate at the upper end of the range given by Council members (e.g. Villeroy de Galhau). We also expect the announcement of measures aimed at limiting the attractiveness of funds obtained under TLTRO III. We expect a further upgrade of the inflation path by the ECB and a downgrade of growth, although we think the ECB will refrain from calling a recession for now. Beyond monetary policy, a further focus will remain energy policy, with EU Energy Ministers meeting on 9 September.
With limited data releases next week, the focus will be on the ECB's meeting on Thursday, where views seem to have rapidly shifted and an unprecedented 75bps hike seems to be on the cards. We think policy rates could reach 2% next March: a terminal rate at the upper end of the range given by Council members (e.g. Villeroy de Galhau). We also expect the announcement of measures aimed at limiting the attractiveness of funds obtained under TLTRO III. We expect a further upgrade of the inflation path by the ECB and a downgrade of growth, although we think the ECB will refrain from calling a recession for now. Beyond monetary policy, a further focus will remain energy policy, with EU Energy Ministers meeting on 9 September.
Bottom-line: 미국의 고용은 강했고, 유럽의 인플레이션 또한 여전히 높았지만, 글로벌 제조업은 위축으로 향하고 있음. 역사를 돌아보면 특정 충격이 다른 곳으로 전파되는 것은 매우 비대칭적이었음. 미국이 충격이 전세계적으로 강하게 영향을 주는 반면, 그 반대의 충격은 지역 내부에 그치는 경우가 많았기 때문임. 유럽은 여전히 다음 분기 정도에 침체에 진입할 것임. (J.P.Morgan / Fearful asymmetry)
The first round of August reports reinforce the message delivered last month at this time. US employment continues to grow at a strong pace, showing that US business remains firmly in expansion mode. The first set of European inflation readings surprised to the upside again, increasing pressure at upcoming central bank meetings despite a building recession threat associated with surging retail energy prices. Our global manufacturing PMI survey dropped once more, pointing to an imminent contraction in global industry. The drop in the PMI global orders/inventory ratio to its lowest level outside recession in the last quarter century is a particular concern alongside the sharp drop in export orders in key tech producers in Asia (Japan, Korea, Taiwan). The historical record suggests that the spillover of adverse regional shocks to the rest of the world is asymmetric: large US shocks generally have powerful negative global reverberations, while weakness concentrated in Europe or Asia has limited spillovers outside their respective regions. Based on this experience, recent developments shift the focus from global recession risks to a potential phase of divergent performance more akin to the European sovereign (2011-12) or Asian financial (1997-8) crisis. This aligns with our forecast: we look for a European recession to take hold next quarter against the backdrop of sub-par Asian and trend-like US growth.
The first round of August reports reinforce the message delivered last month at this time. US employment continues to grow at a strong pace, showing that US business remains firmly in expansion mode. The first set of European inflation readings surprised to the upside again, increasing pressure at upcoming central bank meetings despite a building recession threat associated with surging retail energy prices. Our global manufacturing PMI survey dropped once more, pointing to an imminent contraction in global industry. The drop in the PMI global orders/inventory ratio to its lowest level outside recession in the last quarter century is a particular concern alongside the sharp drop in export orders in key tech producers in Asia (Japan, Korea, Taiwan). The historical record suggests that the spillover of adverse regional shocks to the rest of the world is asymmetric: large US shocks generally have powerful negative global reverberations, while weakness concentrated in Europe or Asia has limited spillovers outside their respective regions. Based on this experience, recent developments shift the focus from global recession risks to a potential phase of divergent performance more akin to the European sovereign (2011-12) or Asian financial (1997-8) crisis. This aligns with our forecast: we look for a European recession to take hold next quarter against the backdrop of sub-par Asian and trend-like US growth.
The euro slumps below 99 US cents as Europe’s deepening energy crisis is set to accelerate inflation and hurt growth in Europe.
Bottom-line: 하루 10만 배럴은 전세계 생산량의 0.1%에 불과하지만, 3개월 간 -20% 하락한 가격을 민감하게 신경쓰고 있다는 메시지를 주는데 충분했음.
OPEC+ ministers agreed to a surprise oil-supply cut of 100,000 barrels a day for October, reversing the increase announced at last month’s meeting. It’s a minuscule amount -- roughly 0.1% of global production -- but sends a message to traders that the group’s serious when it says output reductions may be needed to stabilize crude prices. Futures have slid about 20% in the past three months to below $100 a barrel.
OPEC+ ministers agreed to a surprise oil-supply cut of 100,000 barrels a day for October, reversing the increase announced at last month’s meeting. It’s a minuscule amount -- roughly 0.1% of global production -- but sends a message to traders that the group’s serious when it says output reductions may be needed to stabilize crude prices. Futures have slid about 20% in the past three months to below $100 a barrel.
Bottom-line: 지난 6월이 최악의 구간이었고, 이제 지나갔단 주장이 설득을 잃고 있음.
The view that global shares already hit their bear-market low back in June is looking increasingly precarious. Europe’s intensifying energy crisis is the latest hit to sentiment, which was already under pressure from a wave of monetary tightening.
The view that global shares already hit their bear-market low back in June is looking increasingly precarious. Europe’s intensifying energy crisis is the latest hit to sentiment, which was already under pressure from a wave of monetary tightening.
Bottom-line: 달러가 지속 상승 함에 따라 신흥국 내 달러 표시 채권과 현지 통화 채권 등가물 간 스프레드가 금융위기 이후 최대치로 확대 됨. 이는 달러 표시 부채에 대한 요구수익률 상승에 따른 채권 가격 하락을 야기함. 이미 에너지와 인플레이션 위기, 성장률 둔화가 투자 매력을 낮추고 있기에 신흥국 투자의 이유가 점점 약해진다 할 수 있음.
The runaway dollar is putting a mighty squeeze on developing nations bond markets. The spread between emerging-market dollar-denominated government bonds and local currency equivalents has climbed to the highest level since the financial crisis, according to Bloomberg indexes. As the greenback rises, it becomes more expensive for countries to service their US currency debt, so the price of the bonds fall as investors demand higher yields to compensate for the extra risk. Coupled with an energy crisis, rising inflation, slowing economies and the threat of increased social unrest, that’s an unattractive mix. Bloomberg’s hard currency EM bond gauge has fallen 15% this year, compared with a 10% slide in the local-denominated equivalent, and is on track for its worst annual performance since 2008.
The runaway dollar is putting a mighty squeeze on developing nations bond markets. The spread between emerging-market dollar-denominated government bonds and local currency equivalents has climbed to the highest level since the financial crisis, according to Bloomberg indexes. As the greenback rises, it becomes more expensive for countries to service their US currency debt, so the price of the bonds fall as investors demand higher yields to compensate for the extra risk. Coupled with an energy crisis, rising inflation, slowing economies and the threat of increased social unrest, that’s an unattractive mix. Bloomberg’s hard currency EM bond gauge has fallen 15% this year, compared with a 10% slide in the local-denominated equivalent, and is on track for its worst annual performance since 2008.
Bottom-line: 인민은행이 2004년 이후 최대치의 은행 외환 보유액 비율 하향 이후 10일 연속 위안화를 시장 거래보다 절상 고시하며 통화 약세를 저지하려는 안간힘을 쓰고 있음.
China set a stronger-than-expected fixing for a 10th day and said it will allow banks to hold less foreign currencies in reserve, its most substantial moves yet to stabilize a weakening yuan. The People’s Bank of China set the yuan’s reference rate at 6.9096 per dollar on Tuesday, trailing behind the currency’s move to a two-year low. That came a day after the central bank said financial institutions will need to hold just 6% of their foreign exchange in reserve from Sept. 15, effectively increasing the supply of dollars and other currencies onshore. The decrease of 2 percentage points is the biggest in data going back to 2004.
China set a stronger-than-expected fixing for a 10th day and said it will allow banks to hold less foreign currencies in reserve, its most substantial moves yet to stabilize a weakening yuan. The People’s Bank of China set the yuan’s reference rate at 6.9096 per dollar on Tuesday, trailing behind the currency’s move to a two-year low. That came a day after the central bank said financial institutions will need to hold just 6% of their foreign exchange in reserve from Sept. 15, effectively increasing the supply of dollars and other currencies onshore. The decrease of 2 percentage points is the biggest in data going back to 2004.
Bottom-line: 화웨이가 애플에 앞서 2년 만에 대표 제품을 공개했는데, 격화되는 미국과 중국 간 갈등으로 인해 운영체제부터 디스플레이까지 중국 내재 기술로 대체 된 모습임.
Huawei Technologies Co. on Tuesday unveiled a phone that features a number of Chinese innovations designed to replace American technology, leaning into Beijing’s localization effort as US tensions escalate. The new Mate 50 lineup has Huawei’s own Android-like Harmony OS and in-house shatterproof glass as well as satellite-based messaging using China’s alternative to GPS, the BeiDou Navigation Satellite System. It comes mere days before Apple Inc.’s next iPhone event, which is expected to showcase similar technology. The BeiDou system’s communication capabilities are intended as a fallback measure to share location or emergency short messages in cases of poor connectivity. Beside its headline feature, the 6.7-inch Mate 50 features a new protective screen developed by Huawei called Kunlun Glass, intended to replace US supplier Corning Inc., whose Gorilla Glass is the industry standard among mobile device manufacturers.
Huawei Technologies Co. on Tuesday unveiled a phone that features a number of Chinese innovations designed to replace American technology, leaning into Beijing’s localization effort as US tensions escalate. The new Mate 50 lineup has Huawei’s own Android-like Harmony OS and in-house shatterproof glass as well as satellite-based messaging using China’s alternative to GPS, the BeiDou Navigation Satellite System. It comes mere days before Apple Inc.’s next iPhone event, which is expected to showcase similar technology. The BeiDou system’s communication capabilities are intended as a fallback measure to share location or emergency short messages in cases of poor connectivity. Beside its headline feature, the 6.7-inch Mate 50 features a new protective screen developed by Huawei called Kunlun Glass, intended to replace US supplier Corning Inc., whose Gorilla Glass is the industry standard among mobile device manufacturers.
Bottom-line: 바이낸스에서 거래하기 위해 자체 스테이블 코인인 BUSD로 환전해야 하는 대담하고 전례없는 결정을 내림.
Binance, the largest crypto exchange by volume, will start converting any existing user balances and new deposits of USD Coin (USDC), Pax Dollar (USDP) and True USD (TUSD) into the company’s own stablecoin, according to a statement published on Monday. The conversion is scheduled to begin Sept. 29. USDC, issued by Circle Internet Financial, is the second-ranked stablecoin after Tether, with a market value of nearly $52 billion, according to data from CoinGecko. Binance’s stablecoin, BUSD, is a distant third at around $19.3 billion. The exchange said the move is intended to “to enhance liquidity and capital-efficiency for users.” Binance will also remove and stop any trading on spot pairs that involve USDC, USDP or TUSD, the exchange said in the statement. The decision “is quite bold and unprecedented,” said Hagen Rooke, a partner at law firm Reed Smith LLP in Singapore. “Commercially it is a smart move for Binance because its service offering will now increasingly converge around its house-own BUSD product.”
Binance, the largest crypto exchange by volume, will start converting any existing user balances and new deposits of USD Coin (USDC), Pax Dollar (USDP) and True USD (TUSD) into the company’s own stablecoin, according to a statement published on Monday. The conversion is scheduled to begin Sept. 29. USDC, issued by Circle Internet Financial, is the second-ranked stablecoin after Tether, with a market value of nearly $52 billion, according to data from CoinGecko. Binance’s stablecoin, BUSD, is a distant third at around $19.3 billion. The exchange said the move is intended to “to enhance liquidity and capital-efficiency for users.” Binance will also remove and stop any trading on spot pairs that involve USDC, USDP or TUSD, the exchange said in the statement. The decision “is quite bold and unprecedented,” said Hagen Rooke, a partner at law firm Reed Smith LLP in Singapore. “Commercially it is a smart move for Binance because its service offering will now increasingly converge around its house-own BUSD product.”
Bottom-line: 과거 영국은 국채를 금테로 둘러 발행해서 이를 'Gilt Edged Securities'로 불렸고, 현재는 영국 국채를 'Gilt'라 칭한다.
Gilt yields across the curve have retreated from highs on a Bloomberg report that says the UK’s Truss is planning a £40 billion energy-aid package for UK businesses. The pound is one of the best G-10 performers today and domestic stocks are rallying.
Gilt yields across the curve have retreated from highs on a Bloomberg report that says the UK’s Truss is planning a £40 billion energy-aid package for UK businesses. The pound is one of the best G-10 performers today and domestic stocks are rallying.
Bottom-line: 에너지 및 유틸리티 기업들이 증거금 부족으로 인해 에너지 위기를 더욱 심화시킬 수 있단 우려가 부각됨에 따라 기업들에 긴급 지원을 시작하고 있음. 노르웨이 국영 석유회사인 에퀴노르에 따르면 증거금 부족액이 1.5조 달러에 달한다고 함.
European governments are patching together emergency measures to support utilities amid fears that companies will buckle under the weight of growing margin calls, worsening an energy crisis that’s sent prices soaring and left the continent short of gas. Recent days have seen a flurry of news -- from Sweden to Switzerland to the UK -- as companies and governments try to get to grips with the situation. Norway’s Equinor ASA has said that European energy trading risks collapsing under the weight of margin calls amounting to at least $1.5 trillion. On Tuesday morning, Finnish utility Fortum Oyj got 2.35 billion euros ($2.3 billion) of bridge funding to ensure adequate liquidity. Switzerland granted Axpo a credit line of up to 4 billion francs ($4.1 billion). The company, which produces and trades renewable energy, asked for the credit line but hasn’t used it yet.
European governments are patching together emergency measures to support utilities amid fears that companies will buckle under the weight of growing margin calls, worsening an energy crisis that’s sent prices soaring and left the continent short of gas. Recent days have seen a flurry of news -- from Sweden to Switzerland to the UK -- as companies and governments try to get to grips with the situation. Norway’s Equinor ASA has said that European energy trading risks collapsing under the weight of margin calls amounting to at least $1.5 trillion. On Tuesday morning, Finnish utility Fortum Oyj got 2.35 billion euros ($2.3 billion) of bridge funding to ensure adequate liquidity. Switzerland granted Axpo a credit line of up to 4 billion francs ($4.1 billion). The company, which produces and trades renewable energy, asked for the credit line but hasn’t used it yet.