Stocks sold off as the prospect of Fed tightening looms. The dollar gained, pushing the yen toward its worst day in more than two months, while gold dropped and crude wavered. Asian equity futures are in the red.
Bottom-line: 변동성 수준에 따라 주식비중을 높이거나 낮추는 알고리즘 펀드의 매도가 예상되는 가운데, 헤지펀드들은 지수선물이나 상장지수펀드 매도를 통해 체계적 위험을 헤지하고, 저가에 측은한 상태의 주식들을 매수하는 움직임이 관찰되고 있음.
After spending much of 2022 playing defense, professional speculators are reasserting themselves with aggressive equity bets on both the short and long side. Hedge funds have raised exposure in back-to-back weeks, data from Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s prime brokerage show, increasing short sales via macro products such as index futures while buying shares of individual firms. The moves resulted in their busiest week by notional trading volume in a year. The same trends were observed by Morgan Stanley, where hedge-fund clients boosted holdings in single stocks in areas such as technology and health care, while adding shorts against exchange-traded funds. The data suggest that money mangers are both keen to pick up bargains and leery about the broader market’s direction. At least two Wall Street firms warned that rules-based funds are expected to offload billions of stocks in coming weeks.
After spending much of 2022 playing defense, professional speculators are reasserting themselves with aggressive equity bets on both the short and long side. Hedge funds have raised exposure in back-to-back weeks, data from Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s prime brokerage show, increasing short sales via macro products such as index futures while buying shares of individual firms. The moves resulted in their busiest week by notional trading volume in a year. The same trends were observed by Morgan Stanley, where hedge-fund clients boosted holdings in single stocks in areas such as technology and health care, while adding shorts against exchange-traded funds. The data suggest that money mangers are both keen to pick up bargains and leery about the broader market’s direction. At least two Wall Street firms warned that rules-based funds are expected to offload billions of stocks in coming weeks.
Bottom-line: 달러 대비 엔화 가치가 24년래 최저치로 하락하며 1979년 이후 연간 최대 절하를 기록할 것으로 보임. 전세계적 통화정책 흐름의 저항국으로 남아있는 일본은 확대되는 금리 차이가 발생시키는 통화 절하로 지속 압박을 받을 것임.
The yen has slumped to a level that leaves it on track for its worst year on record, putting traders on alert for at least more verbal intervention from Japanese officials. The currency has slumped more than 19% this year, and edged past its previous worst annual drawdown in 1979. The renewed selloff in Treasuries this month has widened the yield gap between the US and Japan, driving up the dollar and pushing the yen to a 24-year low. Dollar-yen surged past the 143 level for the first time since 1998 Tuesday, a move which will ramp up pressure on Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s defiance of a global shift toward rate hikes and the strength of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s support for his stance.
The yen has slumped to a level that leaves it on track for its worst year on record, putting traders on alert for at least more verbal intervention from Japanese officials. The currency has slumped more than 19% this year, and edged past its previous worst annual drawdown in 1979. The renewed selloff in Treasuries this month has widened the yield gap between the US and Japan, driving up the dollar and pushing the yen to a 24-year low. Dollar-yen surged past the 143 level for the first time since 1998 Tuesday, a move which will ramp up pressure on Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s defiance of a global shift toward rate hikes and the strength of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s support for his stance.
Bottom-line: 거액 자산가들은 높은 인플레이션과 변동성 환경에서 주식과 채권, 그리고 암호화폐에서 투자를 회수해 시장 변동성에서 보호받을 수 있는 자산으로 옮기고 있음. 블룸버그가 집계하는 세계 500대 부자의 자산은 반년 간 1.4조 달러 줄어들어 대확산 이후 추세와 반대되고 있음.
With growing concerns over rising inflation and market volatility, Asia’s wealthy are turning cautious. People with more than $1 million of investable funds are repositioning toward private assets to shield their investments from market volatility, Lombard Odier’s 2022 study about high net-worth individuals in Asia Pacific found. They’ve increasingly shunned stocks and bonds to focus on their own companies or assets deemed safer such as gold and cash. At the same time, they’ve largely stayed clear of crypto, a market that’s proved particularly volatile. A slump in tech stocks and soaring inflation amid rising interest rates have shaved off $1.4 trillion from the cumulative wealth of the world’s 500 richest people in the first half of the year, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. That’s a reversal from the past two years, when central-bank largesse to combat the effects of Covid-19 helped boost assets and personal fortunes with them.
With growing concerns over rising inflation and market volatility, Asia’s wealthy are turning cautious. People with more than $1 million of investable funds are repositioning toward private assets to shield their investments from market volatility, Lombard Odier’s 2022 study about high net-worth individuals in Asia Pacific found. They’ve increasingly shunned stocks and bonds to focus on their own companies or assets deemed safer such as gold and cash. At the same time, they’ve largely stayed clear of crypto, a market that’s proved particularly volatile. A slump in tech stocks and soaring inflation amid rising interest rates have shaved off $1.4 trillion from the cumulative wealth of the world’s 500 richest people in the first half of the year, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. That’s a reversal from the past two years, when central-bank largesse to combat the effects of Covid-19 helped boost assets and personal fortunes with them.
Bottom-line: 2020년 바이러스 대확산 시기 화장실 휴지 부족 사태는 공급망 파괴의 조기 신호였음. 그리고 최근 상승하는 화장실 휴지 가격은 인플레이션의 고점이 우리의 뒤에 있길 바라는 투자자들에게 적신호라 할 수 있음. 이 산업은 에너지 집약 산업의 축소판이라 할 수 있으며, 이보다 큰 규모의 에너지 집중 산업들이 향후 어떤 위기를 직접적으로 겪게 될지 먼저 보여준다고 하겠음.
The toilet paper shortage of 2020 was an early warning sign of the large supply-chain disruptions that the global economy was about to suffer. Now wholesale tissue paper prices are surging to an all-time high — a new crisis that indicates inflationary pressures are still building up. The toilet-paper industry is a microcosm of the much larger, energy-intensive manufacturing sector, where production costs are continuing to skyrocket in line with soaring wholesale energy prices. It’s the same issue across European industrial commodities — from glass, ceramics and synthetic fibres to aluminum, cement, fertilizer and dozens of other daily-life goods. Wall Street hopes that the worst of the inflationary wave is behind us. But one look into the industrial sector via the ups and downs of the toilet-paper industry suggests that price pressures are not letting up. Central banks will have to tighten their monetary policy in response, even as economic growth, in Europe in particular, slows down. As is true for many manufacturers, the core of the problem for toilet paper is the cost of energy.
The toilet paper shortage of 2020 was an early warning sign of the large supply-chain disruptions that the global economy was about to suffer. Now wholesale tissue paper prices are surging to an all-time high — a new crisis that indicates inflationary pressures are still building up. The toilet-paper industry is a microcosm of the much larger, energy-intensive manufacturing sector, where production costs are continuing to skyrocket in line with soaring wholesale energy prices. It’s the same issue across European industrial commodities — from glass, ceramics and synthetic fibres to aluminum, cement, fertilizer and dozens of other daily-life goods. Wall Street hopes that the worst of the inflationary wave is behind us. But one look into the industrial sector via the ups and downs of the toilet-paper industry suggests that price pressures are not letting up. Central banks will have to tighten their monetary policy in response, even as economic growth, in Europe in particular, slows down. As is true for many manufacturers, the core of the problem for toilet paper is the cost of energy.
Bottom-line: 주가는 기술적 분석으로 심리가 이미 지난 6월 바닥을 본 것으로 생각할 수 있으나, 추가 상승에는 여전히 높은 금리에 대한 주식 수익률 민감도가 발목을 잡고 있음.
Technical signals hint that a global equity-market bottom may have already occurred with June’s sentiment washout, but rate hikes still threaten the outlook for stocks. Rate sensitivity remains evident and may keep curbing stocks’ potential gains, as August marked the most extreme and broadest global sovereign-yield jump in over 20 years. Global Treasury yields rose sharply throughout August, sparking a fire sale in equities, with 13 of the world’s largest 20 markets dropping.
Technical signals hint that a global equity-market bottom may have already occurred with June’s sentiment washout, but rate hikes still threaten the outlook for stocks. Rate sensitivity remains evident and may keep curbing stocks’ potential gains, as August marked the most extreme and broadest global sovereign-yield jump in over 20 years. Global Treasury yields rose sharply throughout August, sparking a fire sale in equities, with 13 of the world’s largest 20 markets dropping.
Bottom-line: 혁신이 적은 대신 가격은 그대로.
Apple Inc. unveiled a new lineup of devices Wednesday with few surprises beyond one major one: It didn’t raise its US prices during one of the worst years for inflation in decades. At its biggest product-launch event of the year, dubbed Far Out, the company introduced the iPhone 14, fresh AirPods Pro earbuds and an Apple Watch upgrade that included a first-ever Ultra model. The iPhone retains the general look of the older version while getting camera enhancements, a long-anticipated satellite-messaging feature and -- on the higher-end models -- a new interface called the Dynamic Island.
Apple Inc. unveiled a new lineup of devices Wednesday with few surprises beyond one major one: It didn’t raise its US prices during one of the worst years for inflation in decades. At its biggest product-launch event of the year, dubbed Far Out, the company introduced the iPhone 14, fresh AirPods Pro earbuds and an Apple Watch upgrade that included a first-ever Ultra model. The iPhone retains the general look of the older version while getting camera enhancements, a long-anticipated satellite-messaging feature and -- on the higher-end models -- a new interface called the Dynamic Island.
Bottom-line: 작금의 중국을 대표하는 기업에 초기 투자한 이들은 다년간 수십억 달러의 수익을 거뒀지만, 최근 이들의 대규모 지분이 청산거래 시스템에 포착되고 있음. 시진핑 정부의 기업 경영 간섭과 경제봉쇄 등이 지난 시간 이뤄낸 중국의 성장 모형에 대한 의문을 품게 만들기 때문임.
For early backers, they’ve been some of the most profitable Chinese stock investments of all time: Tencent Holdings Ltd., Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and BYD Co. But now big-name investors who’ve made billions from these stocks are taking money off the table, underscoring growing angst over the prospects for China’s biggest companies as President Xi Jinping tightens the government’s grip on the private sector and the economy falters under persistent Covid lockdowns. In the latest development, Tencent shares worth $7.6 billion appeared in Hong Kong’s clearing and settlement system, typically a precursor to selling stock. Naspers Ltd. -- which invests via its Dutch unit Prosus NV -- is the most likely seller because it’s one of the few investors that can handle such a sizable transaction and it’s said it will sell Tencent to fund buybacks. That comes a month after Japan’s SoftBank Group Corp. said it unloaded an enormous slug of Alibaba, the e-commerce pioneer that had long been China’s most valuable company. SoftBank, under pressure from botched startup bets, raised more than $17 billion through the sale of forward contracts on the stock. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. is trimming its stake in electric-vehicle maker BYD. The moves, taken together, represent a stunning retreat from China’s private sector by investors that had been fervent champions for decades. SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son famously invested about $20 million in Jack Ma’s Alibaba in 2000 and held through the dot-com bust and the Chinese company’s IPO in 2014. Naspers invested in Tencent in 2001, while Berkshire bought shares in BYD in 2008. “There’s a big question mark over the growth model of Chinese tech giants like Tencent and Alibaba,” said Ke Yan, analyst with Singapore-based DZT Research. “The government crackdown brought significant uncertainty.”
For early backers, they’ve been some of the most profitable Chinese stock investments of all time: Tencent Holdings Ltd., Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and BYD Co. But now big-name investors who’ve made billions from these stocks are taking money off the table, underscoring growing angst over the prospects for China’s biggest companies as President Xi Jinping tightens the government’s grip on the private sector and the economy falters under persistent Covid lockdowns. In the latest development, Tencent shares worth $7.6 billion appeared in Hong Kong’s clearing and settlement system, typically a precursor to selling stock. Naspers Ltd. -- which invests via its Dutch unit Prosus NV -- is the most likely seller because it’s one of the few investors that can handle such a sizable transaction and it’s said it will sell Tencent to fund buybacks. That comes a month after Japan’s SoftBank Group Corp. said it unloaded an enormous slug of Alibaba, the e-commerce pioneer that had long been China’s most valuable company. SoftBank, under pressure from botched startup bets, raised more than $17 billion through the sale of forward contracts on the stock. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. is trimming its stake in electric-vehicle maker BYD. The moves, taken together, represent a stunning retreat from China’s private sector by investors that had been fervent champions for decades. SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son famously invested about $20 million in Jack Ma’s Alibaba in 2000 and held through the dot-com bust and the Chinese company’s IPO in 2014. Naspers invested in Tencent in 2001, while Berkshire bought shares in BYD in 2008. “There’s a big question mark over the growth model of Chinese tech giants like Tencent and Alibaba,” said Ke Yan, analyst with Singapore-based DZT Research. “The government crackdown brought significant uncertainty.”
Queen Elizabeth II has died at the age of 96. Britain's longest-reigning monarch passed away peacefully at Balmoral Castle in Scotland, Buckingham Palace said. She marked 70 years of service earlier this year, spanning 15 prime ministers, the death of Princess Diana and the UK's exit from the EU. Her eldest son succeeds her as King Charles III, becoming at 73 the oldest person to accede to the throne in the country's history.
The newly crowned Queen Elizabeth II waves to the crowd from the balcony at Buckingham Palace, 1953.