US stocks rose, extending last week's rally, as a NY Fed report ahead of Tuesday's CPI data buoyed optimism that inflation may be receding.
Bottom-line: 시진핑의 권력 장악이 연장될 것은 예상되지만, 십수년 간 지켜지며 수백명의 강제 퇴출과 다음 세대의 진출을 가능하게 했던 나이 제한을 어떻게 할 것인지 딜레마에 빠질 것으로 보임. 이 나이 제한을 모두에게 해제할 경우 그간 지켜 온 원칙을 어기는 것이 되고, 본인에게만 예외를 둘 경우 경험이 부족한 관료들이 본인은 보필하는 상황에서 대외적 도전에 대응해야 하기 때문임.
Chinese President Xi Jinping is widely expected to defy the Communist Party’s retirement norms by clinching a landmark third term in power next month. The question is whether the 69-year-old will rewrite the rules for others -- or just himself. The requirement that top leaders step down after age 68 has held without exception for two decades, according to a Bloomberg analysis of government data, even though party officials have dismissed the age limit as “folklore.” Hundreds of cadres have been forced to leave the party’s 200-plus member Central Committee in that time, allowing the next generation to take their seats. That presents a dilemma. By scrapping the age limit, Xi would lose a neutral selection criteria that has helped three generations of party leaders oust rivals and promote protégés. Enforcing it for everyone but himself -- a scenario that experts view as more likely -- would leave Xi surrounded by a plethora of younger officials who lack his experience at a time when China faces a range of challenges, including rising tensions with the US over Taiwan, a slowing economy and a spiraling property crisis.
Chinese President Xi Jinping is widely expected to defy the Communist Party’s retirement norms by clinching a landmark third term in power next month. The question is whether the 69-year-old will rewrite the rules for others -- or just himself. The requirement that top leaders step down after age 68 has held without exception for two decades, according to a Bloomberg analysis of government data, even though party officials have dismissed the age limit as “folklore.” Hundreds of cadres have been forced to leave the party’s 200-plus member Central Committee in that time, allowing the next generation to take their seats. That presents a dilemma. By scrapping the age limit, Xi would lose a neutral selection criteria that has helped three generations of party leaders oust rivals and promote protégés. Enforcing it for everyone but himself -- a scenario that experts view as more likely -- would leave Xi surrounded by a plethora of younger officials who lack his experience at a time when China faces a range of challenges, including rising tensions with the US over Taiwan, a slowing economy and a spiraling property crisis.
Bottom-line: 금일 물가지표는 중앙은행이 금리인상 결정을 하기 전 보게 되는 마지막 경제 데이터임.
This release -- the last big dose of economic data before the Federal Reserve convenes to weigh further interest-rate increases.
This release -- the last big dose of economic data before the Federal Reserve convenes to weigh further interest-rate increases.
Here’s a look at longer-run inflation expectations from the application, which are well anchored below 3%.
CPI is the third-most market-moving data for a major miss or beat in expectations, with the 10-year Treasury median move about 6 bps for a one-standard-deviation data beat or miss.
Oooh, another worse-than-expected inflation report. This is not good for the Fed or for Biden.
The yields on the 2-year Treasury have jumped to the highest since 2007 while the 2s10s curve bear flattened as the market anticipates the Fed to move aggressively to contain inflation.
Bottom-line: CPI Cements 75 BPs for Next Week, Ups Terminal Rate to 4.18%.
The August consumer price data beat estimates. Overnight index swaps price in ~79 bps in rate hikes next week. That compares to ~72 bps ahead of the data. The terminal rate is now expected at 4.18%, according to Fed swaps. That’s versus 4% prior to the data.
The August consumer price data beat estimates. Overnight index swaps price in ~79 bps in rate hikes next week. That compares to ~72 bps ahead of the data. The terminal rate is now expected at 4.18%, according to Fed swaps. That’s versus 4% prior to the data.
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Bottom-line: 물가지표에 당황한 쪽은 이코노미스트 뿐만 아니라 지표 발표 전날인 월요일에만 기술주 상장지수펀드(QQQ)를 26억 달러 규모로 매수한 투자자도 포함됨.
Economists weren’t the only ones caught off-guard by Tuesday’s hotter-than-expected inflation reading: A day earlier, investors were piling into the world’s biggest tech ETF at the fastest rate since February. The $2.6 billion poured into the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF (ticker QQQ) on Monday is now set to take an immediate hit after data showed US consumer prices jumped 8.3% from a year earlier, coming in above forecasts. The report triggered a stock slump that looks set to end a four-day rally as traders prepare for more aggressive Federal Reserve tightening.
Economists weren’t the only ones caught off-guard by Tuesday’s hotter-than-expected inflation reading: A day earlier, investors were piling into the world’s biggest tech ETF at the fastest rate since February. The $2.6 billion poured into the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF (ticker QQQ) on Monday is now set to take an immediate hit after data showed US consumer prices jumped 8.3% from a year earlier, coming in above forecasts. The report triggered a stock slump that looks set to end a four-day rally as traders prepare for more aggressive Federal Reserve tightening.
Bottom-line: 100bp의 금리인상도 테이블 위에 올라섬.
Tuesday’s unexpectedly hot inflation reading virtually assured markets that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 75 basis points next week. Wall Street then began to weigh the chance that the Fed might make a more dramatic statement. The odds for a 100 basis point rate hike jumped more than 20% after the consumer price index showed an increase from July. Scott Buchta, head of fixed-income strategy at Brean Capital, said that if the Fed needs to raise rates sharply, it would be best to do so quickly and get it over with. “Seventy-five is most likely, but they should do 100,” he said.
Tuesday’s unexpectedly hot inflation reading virtually assured markets that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 75 basis points next week. Wall Street then began to weigh the chance that the Fed might make a more dramatic statement. The odds for a 100 basis point rate hike jumped more than 20% after the consumer price index showed an increase from July. Scott Buchta, head of fixed-income strategy at Brean Capital, said that if the Fed needs to raise rates sharply, it would be best to do so quickly and get it over with. “Seventy-five is most likely, but they should do 100,” he said.
US stocks and bonds plummeted, with tech shares bearing the brunt. The S&P 500 dropped 4.3% and the Nasdaq lost more than 5%, with Apple and Microsoft posting their biggest one-day losses since 2020.
Bottom-line: 트레이더들은 종전보다 금리인상 폭을 크게 베팅하고 있음.
That’s not to say rates were immune to today’s surprise. Here’s how fed funds futures traders are pricing the September rate hike, according to Bloomberg’s WIRP function. That’s a roughly 35% probability that the FOMC does 100 bps.
That’s not to say rates were immune to today’s surprise. Here’s how fed funds futures traders are pricing the September rate hike, according to Bloomberg’s WIRP function. That’s a roughly 35% probability that the FOMC does 100 bps.