Bottom-line: 레이 달리오는 인플레이션 통제를 위해 정책금리를 충분히 더 올려야 할 것이며, 이는 민간 부문의 소비, 경제 둔화를 야기하는 신용 성장 하락을 이끌 것. 정책금리를 4.5% 수준으로 올리는 것만으로도 주가지수는 20% 가까이 하락시킬 수 있다고 함.
Ray Dalio came out with a gloomy prediction for stocks and the economy after a hotter-than-expected inflation print rattled financial markets around the globe this week. “It looks like interest rates will have to rise a lot (toward the higher end of the 4.5% to 6% range),” the billionaire founder of Bridgewater Associates LP wrote in a LinkedIn article dated Tuesday. “This will bring private sector credit growth down, which will bring private sector spending and, hence, the economy down with it.”. A mere increase in rates to about 4.5% would lead to a nearly 20% plunge in equity prices, he added. The rate market suggests traders have fully priced in a 75-basis-point hike next week by the Federal Reserve, with a slight chance for a full percentage point move. Traders expect the Fed fund rate to peak at about 4.4% next year, from the current range of 2.25% and 2.5%.
Ray Dalio came out with a gloomy prediction for stocks and the economy after a hotter-than-expected inflation print rattled financial markets around the globe this week. “It looks like interest rates will have to rise a lot (toward the higher end of the 4.5% to 6% range),” the billionaire founder of Bridgewater Associates LP wrote in a LinkedIn article dated Tuesday. “This will bring private sector credit growth down, which will bring private sector spending and, hence, the economy down with it.”. A mere increase in rates to about 4.5% would lead to a nearly 20% plunge in equity prices, he added. The rate market suggests traders have fully priced in a 75-basis-point hike next week by the Federal Reserve, with a slight chance for a full percentage point move. Traders expect the Fed fund rate to peak at about 4.4% next year, from the current range of 2.25% and 2.5%.
Bottom-line: 제이피모건은 중앙은행이 9월 100bp 금리인상을 할 확률이 1/3 미만이라 보고 있으며, 훌륭한 운전자라면 목적지 앞에서 더 가속하지 않는다고 의견을 밝힘.
Federal Reserve officials are unlikely to raise interest rates by a super-sized 100 basis points when they meet next week, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. chief US economist Michael Feroli. “We think the odds of a 100 basis-point move -- though certainly not zero -- are lower than a third,” he wrote in an note to clients Wednesday. “Good drivers don’t increase their speed as they get closer to their destination.”. Investors fully expect a 75 basis-point increase when Fed officials gather Sept. 20-21 and see a roughly one-in-three chance they will opt for the bigger move, according to pricing in federal fund futures contracts. That’s after core US consumer inflation came in at a much-hotter-than-forecast 0.6% in August compared with the prior month.
Federal Reserve officials are unlikely to raise interest rates by a super-sized 100 basis points when they meet next week, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. chief US economist Michael Feroli. “We think the odds of a 100 basis-point move -- though certainly not zero -- are lower than a third,” he wrote in an note to clients Wednesday. “Good drivers don’t increase their speed as they get closer to their destination.”. Investors fully expect a 75 basis-point increase when Fed officials gather Sept. 20-21 and see a roughly one-in-three chance they will opt for the bigger move, according to pricing in federal fund futures contracts. That’s after core US consumer inflation came in at a much-hotter-than-forecast 0.6% in August compared with the prior month.
Bottom-line: 인플레이션이 일시적일 것이란 기대는 비단 주식 투자자 뿐만 아니라 채권 투자자도 동일하게 가지고 있음. 현재 책정 된 수준의 인플레이션 기대(1년 내 2% 대로 하락)가 현실화 되려면 2008년 금융위기 당시 소비자물가지수가 7.7%p 하락한 것보다 더 빨리 물가가 안정되어야 함. 또한 실업률 4%에서 파월이 침체를 우려할지도 의문인지라, 이런 투자자와 중앙은행 간 단절들이 다음 주 시장의 변동을 확대 시킬 여지가 있음.
Equities look to have shrugged off the hot August CPI print. That sets up next week’s Fed meeting as a truly fascinating collision between investors convinced that little more is needed to tame inflation and policy makers who have been adamant they have plenty yet to do. Will Jerome Powell come out in less than a week’s time and signal a slowdown, despite accelerating core inflation and a jobless rate substantially under 4%? Mind you, it’s not just stock investors who are displaying confidence that inflation will prove “transitory.” So do bond investors. The breakeven rate signals fixed-income investors are betting annual CPI will come crashing down to average close about 2% over the coming 12 months. That would require an even faster collapse in inflation than the 7.7-point drop for CPI in the 2008 recession. It seems clear that inflation expectations have gone way too low as soon as the Fed started hiking rates in March, given the way the 12-month average for actual CPI kept rising. That disconnect could cause fresh market turmoil next week when the Fed meets.
Equities look to have shrugged off the hot August CPI print. That sets up next week’s Fed meeting as a truly fascinating collision between investors convinced that little more is needed to tame inflation and policy makers who have been adamant they have plenty yet to do. Will Jerome Powell come out in less than a week’s time and signal a slowdown, despite accelerating core inflation and a jobless rate substantially under 4%? Mind you, it’s not just stock investors who are displaying confidence that inflation will prove “transitory.” So do bond investors. The breakeven rate signals fixed-income investors are betting annual CPI will come crashing down to average close about 2% over the coming 12 months. That would require an even faster collapse in inflation than the 7.7-point drop for CPI in the 2008 recession. It seems clear that inflation expectations have gone way too low as soon as the Fed started hiking rates in March, given the way the 12-month average for actual CPI kept rising. That disconnect could cause fresh market turmoil next week when the Fed meets.
The record amount of dry powder and rising market volatility offer private equity funds such as Blackstone Inc. and KKR & Co. an opportunity to shop for battered listed companies.
Crypto’s most important commercial highway, Ethereum, just got repaved. The blockchain network completed the crypto world’s biggest and most ambitious software upgrade to date, according to its co-founder Vitalik Buterin in a Twitter post Thursday.
Bottom-line: 한국 주택시장이 금융위기 이후 월간 최대 하락을 기록함.
South Korea’s housing market recorded its biggest monthly drop since the global financial crisis as the central bank’s policy tightening cycle enters its second year. The national price index fell 0.29% in August from a month earlier, marking the biggest decline since early 2009, data from the Korea Real Estate Board showed Thursday. While from a year earlier prices grew 2.6%, it was their ninth straight slowing. During the 2008-2009 crisis, Korea’s property market fell for five months in a row, declining as much as 0.78% on a monthly basis. The Bank of Korea has raised rates by 2 percentage points since August last year and a separate survey of consumers indicates the outlook is the most pessimistic in data dating back to 2011.
South Korea’s housing market recorded its biggest monthly drop since the global financial crisis as the central bank’s policy tightening cycle enters its second year. The national price index fell 0.29% in August from a month earlier, marking the biggest decline since early 2009, data from the Korea Real Estate Board showed Thursday. While from a year earlier prices grew 2.6%, it was their ninth straight slowing. During the 2008-2009 crisis, Korea’s property market fell for five months in a row, declining as much as 0.78% on a monthly basis. The Bank of Korea has raised rates by 2 percentage points since August last year and a separate survey of consumers indicates the outlook is the most pessimistic in data dating back to 2011.
Bottom-line: 미국인들이 일어나 거래에 참여하며 분위기가 바뀌고 있음. 16번 연속 절상 고시에도 위안화는 2020년 7월 이후 처음으로 달러 대비 7위안에 걸쳤고, 주가지수 선물은 장 중 저점에서, 국채 금리는 장 중 고점에 있음.
The trading session is getting more risk off as US traders come in. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures have turned negative and are trading at session lows. Nasdaq futures are lagging as the 10-year yield hitting the day’s high above 3.45%. The Stoxx 600 also briefly turned red. There’s also a fresh bout of dollar strength. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index touched a session high while all G-10 FX bar the Swiss franc are falling. The yuan weakened to 7 per dollar for the first time since July 2020, despite the central bank’s earlier effort to push back against the currency’s weakness with a stronger-than-expected fixing for the 16th straight session. Concerns about jumbo Fed rate hikes persist.
The trading session is getting more risk off as US traders come in. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures have turned negative and are trading at session lows. Nasdaq futures are lagging as the 10-year yield hitting the day’s high above 3.45%. The Stoxx 600 also briefly turned red. There’s also a fresh bout of dollar strength. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index touched a session high while all G-10 FX bar the Swiss franc are falling. The yuan weakened to 7 per dollar for the first time since July 2020, despite the central bank’s earlier effort to push back against the currency’s weakness with a stronger-than-expected fixing for the 16th straight session. Concerns about jumbo Fed rate hikes persist.
Bottom-line: 엠파이어 제조업 지수 내 양방향의 가격 부문 모두 하락하며 인플레이션에 대한 좋은 소식으로 작용할 요인이었지만, 주가지수선물을 끌어올리기엔 부족했음.
The prices paid index in the NY Fed’s Empire measure fell for a third month, pointing to a significant and ongoing deceleration in input inflation. Plus, prices received fell to the lowest since February 2021. That’s a positive signal for the inflation battle, but not enough to turn futures positive.
The prices paid index in the NY Fed’s Empire measure fell for a third month, pointing to a significant and ongoing deceleration in input inflation. Plus, prices received fell to the lowest since February 2021. That’s a positive signal for the inflation battle, but not enough to turn futures positive.
Bottom-line: a mixed bag on the economy. won’t dissuade the Fed.
Today’s data dump offered a mixed bag on the economy, showing slumping consumption but a resilient labor market and bounce in manufacturing. That’s not necessarily great for retail stocks, obviously, but at this juncture the figures won’t dissuade the Fed from reacting vigorously to the recent beat on inflation.
Today’s data dump offered a mixed bag on the economy, showing slumping consumption but a resilient labor market and bounce in manufacturing. That’s not necessarily great for retail stocks, obviously, but at this juncture the figures won’t dissuade the Fed from reacting vigorously to the recent beat on inflation.
Bottom-line: 2008년 11월 이후 14년만에 처음으로 30년 평균 모기지 금리가 6%를 넘음.
Mortgage rates in the US topped 6% for the first time in nearly 14 years. The average for a 30-year loan jumped to 6.02% from 5.89% last week, Freddie Mac said in a statement Thursday. The last time rates were above 6% was in November 2008, the company’s data show.
Mortgage rates in the US topped 6% for the first time in nearly 14 years. The average for a 30-year loan jumped to 6.02% from 5.89% last week, Freddie Mac said in a statement Thursday. The last time rates were above 6% was in November 2008, the company’s data show.
US stocks slumped in another choppy session after mixed economic data did nothing to change expectations for next week's FOMC meeting.
Bottom-line: 전세계 물류 및 유통을 대표하는 이 친구가 전망이 어둡다고 밝힘.
FedEx plunged in post-market trading, after withdrawing its forecast and saying preliminary quarterly results fell short. Significantly worsening macroeconomic trends, both in the US and internationally, weighed on global volumes - and the company expects conditions will worsen in the second fiscal quarter. That’s a worrying sign regarding economic growth, and looks likely to pressure stocks across the board.
FedEx plunged in post-market trading, after withdrawing its forecast and saying preliminary quarterly results fell short. Significantly worsening macroeconomic trends, both in the US and internationally, weighed on global volumes - and the company expects conditions will worsen in the second fiscal quarter. That’s a worrying sign regarding economic growth, and looks likely to pressure stocks across the board.
Bottom-line: 달러 강세 흐름 속에 달러 대비 엔화 가치가 145엔에서 정부 개입으로 어느 정도 막힘을 확인하자 투자자들은 또 다른 희생양으로 위안 및 호주 달러를 목표로 하고 있음.
Yuan Takes Center Stage as Yen Slump Frenzy Recedes. Japanese authorities look to be having at least some success in stalling the yen’s collapse after making it clear 145 is a barrier they don’t want to see crossed. All that’s done is shift the focus of the dollar’s rally to other key currencies — notably the yuan and the Australian dollar.
Yuan Takes Center Stage as Yen Slump Frenzy Recedes. Japanese authorities look to be having at least some success in stalling the yen’s collapse after making it clear 145 is a barrier they don’t want to see crossed. All that’s done is shift the focus of the dollar’s rally to other key currencies — notably the yuan and the Australian dollar.
Bottom-line: 금일 미국 국채 10년물 금리를 2년물 금리가 -44bp 역전하며 중앙은행이 인플레이션 통제를 위한 금리인상 우려가 깊어짐을 암시했고, 2년물 금리 대비 주요 만기별 국채 수익률도 역전폭을 확대하며 경제성장에 대한 우려도 커짐을 보였음. 분석에 따르면 향후 6개월래 10년물 금리와 2년물 금리 역전폭은 1980년대 수준인 -100bp에 이를수도 있다함.
A crucial part of the US Treasury yield curve risks inverting even more to a level last seen in the early 1980s as the economy inches closer to a recession, according to Allspring Global Investments. Two-year yields are likely to surge in the next six months, increasing the inversion with 10-year yields to at least 100 basis points, said Brian Jacobsen, senior investment strategist at the firm. The yield gap at that part of the curve stood at minus 44 basis points on Friday, the deepest in a month, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The sharper increase in two-year note yields relative to longer-maturity Treasury yields underscores increasing concern about how much further the Federal Reserve will have to hike interest rates to tame inflation. Other key parts of the curve are also moving further into negative territory, indicating heightened concerns among investors about a contraction in economic growth.
A crucial part of the US Treasury yield curve risks inverting even more to a level last seen in the early 1980s as the economy inches closer to a recession, according to Allspring Global Investments. Two-year yields are likely to surge in the next six months, increasing the inversion with 10-year yields to at least 100 basis points, said Brian Jacobsen, senior investment strategist at the firm. The yield gap at that part of the curve stood at minus 44 basis points on Friday, the deepest in a month, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The sharper increase in two-year note yields relative to longer-maturity Treasury yields underscores increasing concern about how much further the Federal Reserve will have to hike interest rates to tame inflation. Other key parts of the curve are also moving further into negative territory, indicating heightened concerns among investors about a contraction in economic growth.
Futures and stocks were well in the red. US equities haven't yet seen the worse of it, BofA said, adding the "inflation shock ain't over." Treasury yields were mixed, and the dollar extended its rally.
Bottom-line: 바이든은 대만이 공격 받았다면 방어에 가담했을 것이라 답변, 하지만 여전히 하나의 중국을 존중하며 대만의 독립에 대해서는 관여치 않으며 그들의 몫이라 선을 정함.
US military forces would defend Taiwan if there was “an unprecedented attack,” President Joe Biden said, underscoring America’s commitment to the island as Chinese incursions mount near its shores. Biden, speaking in a “60 Minutes” interview that aired Sunday, distanced himself from the question of whether Taiwan is or should be independent, but followed up with a pledge when asked by interviewer Scott Pelley if US forces would “defend the island.”. “Yes, if in fact there was an unprecedented attack,” he replied, according to a trannoscript provided by the broadcaster. Still, he reiterated earlier in the interview that the US’s “One China policy” had not changed. “We agree with what we signed onto a long time ago. And that there’s One China policy, and Taiwan makes their own judgments about their independence. We are not moving -- we’re not encouraging their being independent,” he said. “That’s their decision.”
US military forces would defend Taiwan if there was “an unprecedented attack,” President Joe Biden said, underscoring America’s commitment to the island as Chinese incursions mount near its shores. Biden, speaking in a “60 Minutes” interview that aired Sunday, distanced himself from the question of whether Taiwan is or should be independent, but followed up with a pledge when asked by interviewer Scott Pelley if US forces would “defend the island.”. “Yes, if in fact there was an unprecedented attack,” he replied, according to a trannoscript provided by the broadcaster. Still, he reiterated earlier in the interview that the US’s “One China policy” had not changed. “We agree with what we signed onto a long time ago. And that there’s One China policy, and Taiwan makes their own judgments about their independence. We are not moving -- we’re not encouraging their being independent,” he said. “That’s their decision.”