Bottom-line: 중앙은행들이 속속 금리인상을 진행하고 있지만 냉정하게 평가할 필요가 있음. 전세계 주요 중앙은행의 정책금리 중앙값은 3%인데, 이는 금융위기 이전 5%, 1980년대 15%에 비해 낮으며, 인플레이션 조정을 할 경우 큰 폭의 마이너스 상태에 있어 경기를 눌러주기엔 역부족이라 할 수 있음.
Don’t let the cacophony of central-bank rate-hike announcements mislead you: global policy settings are still historically loose. Monetary policy has room to tighten much more significantly, leaving asset prices exposed to further, potentially material, downside. This week the Riksbank in Sweden unexpectedly hiked 100bps, on Wednesday the Fed delivered its fifth consecutive rate increase, while the Philippines, Indonesia, Switzerland, Norway, South Africa and the UK are all expected to lift rates today. Yet despite this flurry of policy tightening, the Global Policy Rate – the median central-bank rate of the major EM and DM countries around the world – is only 3%. This rate was more than 5% before the Lehman crisis, and 15% in the early 1980s. But it’s the inflation-adjusted version of this measure that’s the real (pun intended) eye opener: the Global Real Policy Rate is very negative and still close to its historical lows. It has only recently begun to turn up, and has a long way to go to get back to zero - let alone move into restrictive territory.
Don’t let the cacophony of central-bank rate-hike announcements mislead you: global policy settings are still historically loose. Monetary policy has room to tighten much more significantly, leaving asset prices exposed to further, potentially material, downside. This week the Riksbank in Sweden unexpectedly hiked 100bps, on Wednesday the Fed delivered its fifth consecutive rate increase, while the Philippines, Indonesia, Switzerland, Norway, South Africa and the UK are all expected to lift rates today. Yet despite this flurry of policy tightening, the Global Policy Rate – the median central-bank rate of the major EM and DM countries around the world – is only 3%. This rate was more than 5% before the Lehman crisis, and 15% in the early 1980s. But it’s the inflation-adjusted version of this measure that’s the real (pun intended) eye opener: the Global Real Policy Rate is very negative and still close to its historical lows. It has only recently begun to turn up, and has a long way to go to get back to zero - let alone move into restrictive territory.
Bottom-line: 중앙은행이 시장 예상 수준의 금리인상을 할 경우 기술주가 다시 랠리를 할 것이란 전망이 있었으나 시장은 그리 단순하지 않았음. 그럼에도 불구 대다수 기관 투자자들은 중앙은행이 망치를 때리는 기술주에서 떠날 수 없음. 벤치마크에서 27%의 비중이 되는 기술주의 반등을 놓치면 본인의 커리어도 깨질 뿐 아니라, 2020년 고점 대비 -35% 하락했고, 애플과 같은 기업들은 현금흐름이나 실적에 둔화세가 크지 않기 때문에 도저히 놓칠 수가 없는 업종이 되버린 것임. 때문에 최근 액티브 매니저들은 기술주 내에서 대체 불가능한 질적인 우수성을 가진 기업을 가장 중요시 여기고 있음.
Even as the Federal Reserve jacks up interest rates and sends technology stocks tumbling, it only gets harder to stay away from the sector. On the one hand, there’s so much to like: The Nasdaq 100 Index is now 35% cheaper than at its 2020 peak, megacap companies like Apple Inc. are still filling their coffers with cash and the earnings outlook shows no sign of a significant slowdown. But, the Fed. The market chatter going into Wednesday’s monetary policy meeting was that there was a high likelihood of a relief rally in tech if the central bank, as expected, raised its benchmark rate by 75 basis points. Turns out it wasn’t that straightforward. The Nasdaq 100 slumped to early July lows, pretty much erasing most of the summer rally, after a more hawkish tone than hoped for from the Fed. So why not avoid tech until the dust settles? That just isn’t an option for most institutional investors, given that the industry is by far the largest in the S&P 500 Index, at almost 27% of the benchmark. If tech stocks turn around and you miss out on the rally, it can be career-ending. Stockpickers thus are gravitating towards “quality” companies with durable businesses or stock charts. Apple Inc. is down just 13% this year. T-Mobile US Inc., cybersecurity company Palo Alto Networks Inc. and chipmaker Texas Instrument Inc. are a few of the others that also have managed to beat most of their tech peers. “Look for businesses with high market share, a good moat, and low substitution risk,” said Brian Battle, director of trading at Performance Trust Capital Partners. “Microsoft makes stuff that people pay for. Apple sells billions in consumer goods, and it is hard to replace those.”
Even as the Federal Reserve jacks up interest rates and sends technology stocks tumbling, it only gets harder to stay away from the sector. On the one hand, there’s so much to like: The Nasdaq 100 Index is now 35% cheaper than at its 2020 peak, megacap companies like Apple Inc. are still filling their coffers with cash and the earnings outlook shows no sign of a significant slowdown. But, the Fed. The market chatter going into Wednesday’s monetary policy meeting was that there was a high likelihood of a relief rally in tech if the central bank, as expected, raised its benchmark rate by 75 basis points. Turns out it wasn’t that straightforward. The Nasdaq 100 slumped to early July lows, pretty much erasing most of the summer rally, after a more hawkish tone than hoped for from the Fed. So why not avoid tech until the dust settles? That just isn’t an option for most institutional investors, given that the industry is by far the largest in the S&P 500 Index, at almost 27% of the benchmark. If tech stocks turn around and you miss out on the rally, it can be career-ending. Stockpickers thus are gravitating towards “quality” companies with durable businesses or stock charts. Apple Inc. is down just 13% this year. T-Mobile US Inc., cybersecurity company Palo Alto Networks Inc. and chipmaker Texas Instrument Inc. are a few of the others that also have managed to beat most of their tech peers. “Look for businesses with high market share, a good moat, and low substitution risk,” said Brian Battle, director of trading at Performance Trust Capital Partners. “Microsoft makes stuff that people pay for. Apple sells billions in consumer goods, and it is hard to replace those.”
Credit risk measures are slowly waking up to the Fed’s warnings on what it might take to curb inflation.
Bottom-line: 러시아는 당초 계획보다 향후 2년 간 국방부문 예산을 43%, 안보 및 법 관련 예산을 40% 증가시키며 전쟁을 장기로 치를 수 있음을 보여줌.
President Vladimir Putin is looking to spend far more on the military in the next two years than initially planned as Russia tailors the budget to the needs of a longer and increasingly costly war in Ukraine. Defense expenditure is now set to exceed next year’s initial budget assumptions by more than 43%, while the related category of national security and law enforcement will go up by over 40%, according to a three-year fiscal plan seen by Bloomberg. The shift reflects a greater commitment to a war that’s already come at enormous cost in blood and treasure to Ukraine and Russia. Major setbacks on the battlefield saw Putin escalate his efforts to regain some momentum this week, when he announced a “partial mobilization” to draft as many as 300,000 reservists.
President Vladimir Putin is looking to spend far more on the military in the next two years than initially planned as Russia tailors the budget to the needs of a longer and increasingly costly war in Ukraine. Defense expenditure is now set to exceed next year’s initial budget assumptions by more than 43%, while the related category of national security and law enforcement will go up by over 40%, according to a three-year fiscal plan seen by Bloomberg. The shift reflects a greater commitment to a war that’s already come at enormous cost in blood and treasure to Ukraine and Russia. Major setbacks on the battlefield saw Putin escalate his efforts to regain some momentum this week, when he announced a “partial mobilization” to draft as many as 300,000 reservists.
US futures tumbled and European stocks plunged to the lowest since December 2020 at the end of a week that underscored expectations for higher rates and slowing economies. A dollar gauge rose to yet another record and 10-year Treasury yields to the highest in more than a decade.
Bottom-line: 10월 16일 열리는 중국공산당 제20차 전국대표대회를 앞두고 투자자들은 부동산 회복을 위한 정책에 베팅하고 있으며, 바이러스 확산 방지를 위한 정책 완화에는 신중한 편임. 중국 경제 안정은 부동산 안정 없이 달성하기 어려운 문제기 때문이며, 소시에테제네랄은 이 이벤트를 앞두고 소비재보다 산업재나 기간산업 주식이 더 유망하다 보고 있음.
Bruised from a tumultuous year, China stock investors are looking to capitalize on any potential policy shifts at the twice-a-decade Communist Party congress next month. A key strategy is to bet on more stimulus for the property market as authorities seek to rescue the ailing industry. Bloomberg Intelligence expects some steps to complete stalled housing projects following the Oct. 16 leadership gathering, which can in turn support the banking sector by reducing loan risks and boosting mortgage demand. With expectations low for an imminent shift away from the Covid-Zero policy, some investors are limiting their exposure to reopening shares. Societe General SA favors industrials and infrastructure stocks over consumer shares ahead of the event. “There is going to be more support for the property sector because if the property market does not stabilize, the economy will not stabilize and growth protection is the number one policy priority,” said Chi Lo, senior market strategist for Asia Pacific at BNP Paribas Asset Management. China stock gauges last week added to what have already been some of the world’s worst losses this year, as the Federal Reserve dealt global markets a hawkish blow.
Bruised from a tumultuous year, China stock investors are looking to capitalize on any potential policy shifts at the twice-a-decade Communist Party congress next month. A key strategy is to bet on more stimulus for the property market as authorities seek to rescue the ailing industry. Bloomberg Intelligence expects some steps to complete stalled housing projects following the Oct. 16 leadership gathering, which can in turn support the banking sector by reducing loan risks and boosting mortgage demand. With expectations low for an imminent shift away from the Covid-Zero policy, some investors are limiting their exposure to reopening shares. Societe General SA favors industrials and infrastructure stocks over consumer shares ahead of the event. “There is going to be more support for the property sector because if the property market does not stabilize, the economy will not stabilize and growth protection is the number one policy priority,” said Chi Lo, senior market strategist for Asia Pacific at BNP Paribas Asset Management. China stock gauges last week added to what have already been some of the world’s worst losses this year, as the Federal Reserve dealt global markets a hawkish blow.
Bottom-line: 최근 몇년 간 자산배분 권한자들에게 대형 기술주를 매수하고 수익이 쌓이길 기다리는 쉬운 국면이 지속됐음. 하지만 중앙은행의 금리인상 시대에 이 플레이북은 더 이상 무효해졌고, 주식 외에 대안이 없다(TINA)는 이제 대안이 생겼고, 특정 경우에는 저위험의 4% 넘는 수익을 주는 채권도 생기며 주식과 채권의 가치 변곡점을 만들었음. 이런 변화는 여름부터 시작됐지만, 여전히 뜨거운 인플레이션과 고용 데이터가 완만한 경기침체를 감수하고도 금융위기 이후 최고 수준의 긴축을 지속활 수 있다는 사실을 전달하며 9월 가속화 되었음. 향후 몇개월 간 하락할 수 있는 기업의 이익들로 인해 주식의 위험 프리미엄에 대해서도 덜 관대해질 것으로 예상 됨.
For years, asset allocators had it easy: Buy the biggest American tech companies and watch the returns rack up. Those days are gone, buried under a crush of central bank rate hikes that are rewriting the play books for investment managers across Wall Street. TINA -- the mantra that investors had no alternatives stocks -- has given way to a panoply of actual choices. From money market funds to short-dated bonds and floating-rate notes, investors are now locking in low-risk returns that, in some cases, exceed 4%. The change has been underway since the summer, but picked up speed in September as investors came to terms with still-hot inflation data and a tight labor market that will force the Fed to pin rates at the highest levels since the housing crisis. After Chair Jerome Powell’s comments Wednesday, there’s little doubt the central bank expects at least a mild recession to curb inflation. “We have gone through the inflection point of bonds offering more value than equities, thanks to the pricing in and delivery of large rate hikes, and a re-emergence of inflation risk premia in the bond market,” said Peter Chatwell, head of global macro strategies trading at Mizuho International Plc. “We would expect the earnings downside risks to make those equity risk premia even less generous in the coming months.”
For years, asset allocators had it easy: Buy the biggest American tech companies and watch the returns rack up. Those days are gone, buried under a crush of central bank rate hikes that are rewriting the play books for investment managers across Wall Street. TINA -- the mantra that investors had no alternatives stocks -- has given way to a panoply of actual choices. From money market funds to short-dated bonds and floating-rate notes, investors are now locking in low-risk returns that, in some cases, exceed 4%. The change has been underway since the summer, but picked up speed in September as investors came to terms with still-hot inflation data and a tight labor market that will force the Fed to pin rates at the highest levels since the housing crisis. After Chair Jerome Powell’s comments Wednesday, there’s little doubt the central bank expects at least a mild recession to curb inflation. “We have gone through the inflection point of bonds offering more value than equities, thanks to the pricing in and delivery of large rate hikes, and a re-emergence of inflation risk premia in the bond market,” said Peter Chatwell, head of global macro strategies trading at Mizuho International Plc. “We would expect the earnings downside risks to make those equity risk premia even less generous in the coming months.”
Bottom-line: 감세에 대한 시장 반응은 생각보다 큰 함의를 지니고 있음. 만일 파운드화가 달러에 등가가치까지 떨어질 경우 엘리자베스 트러스에 대한 불신임이 거세질 수 있음. 이미 긴급조치를 요구하는 목소리가 있음에도 쿼지 콰텡 재무부 장관은 추가 감세까지 고려하고 있음.
The UK market reaction could have huge implications. The Telegraph reported that Truss will face a rebellion from Tory backbenchers against her tax cuts if the pound falls to parity with the dollar — a level Larry Summers predicted on Friday. Some are already calling for emergency BOE action. But new Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng denied investors were panicking, telling the FT that "markets move all the time — it's very important to keep calm and focus on the longer-term strategy." He's also considering even more tax cuts.
The UK market reaction could have huge implications. The Telegraph reported that Truss will face a rebellion from Tory backbenchers against her tax cuts if the pound falls to parity with the dollar — a level Larry Summers predicted on Friday. Some are already calling for emergency BOE action. But new Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng denied investors were panicking, telling the FT that "markets move all the time — it's very important to keep calm and focus on the longer-term strategy." He's also considering even more tax cuts.
Bottom-line: 레버리지 펀드들은 1972년 이후 첫 감세안을 발표하기 전에 파운드화에 대한 대규모 매수 포지션을 구축했음. 감세안 발표 후 파운드화는 달러 대비 큰 폭으로 하락함.
Hedge funds ramped up bullish bets on the pound just days before the currency slumped after the British government announced major tax cuts for rich households. Leveraged investors added 13,488 net long contracts during the week to Sept. 20 -- the biggest increase since March, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission show. The bets came just before Liz Truss’s new government unveiled the most sweeping tax cuts since 1972, triggering a slide in the currency to a record low versus the dollar on wagers the stimulus will balloon the UK’s debt pile and supercharge inflation.
Hedge funds ramped up bullish bets on the pound just days before the currency slumped after the British government announced major tax cuts for rich households. Leveraged investors added 13,488 net long contracts during the week to Sept. 20 -- the biggest increase since March, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission show. The bets came just before Liz Truss’s new government unveiled the most sweeping tax cuts since 1972, triggering a slide in the currency to a record low versus the dollar on wagers the stimulus will balloon the UK’s debt pile and supercharge inflation.
Bottom-line: 올 해 안에 파운드화가 달러에 등가가치에 이를 것이란 확률이 지난 주 금요일 32%에서 60%까지 급등했으며, 옵션을 통한 파운드화의 내재변동성은 대확산 시기의 20.62%에 근접한 20.05%를 기록했음.
It is looking more and more likely sterling will fall to parity against the dollar this year based on option market pricing. Sterling-dollar implied volatility suggests there is a 60% probability spot will hit 1.00 before the end of this year -- based on spot trading at 1.0552 -- compared to 32% on Friday. The currency pair plunged to a record low of 1.0350 Monday in Asian trading after Kwasi Kwarteng, the new Chancellor of the Exchequer signaled more tax cuts might be in the pipeline. Markets are also expecting extreme turbulence, with sterling-dollar’s three month implied volatility surging 4.31 percentage points to 20.05% Monday. That’s fast approaching the high of 20.62% reached during the 2020 pandemic meltdown.
It is looking more and more likely sterling will fall to parity against the dollar this year based on option market pricing. Sterling-dollar implied volatility suggests there is a 60% probability spot will hit 1.00 before the end of this year -- based on spot trading at 1.0552 -- compared to 32% on Friday. The currency pair plunged to a record low of 1.0350 Monday in Asian trading after Kwasi Kwarteng, the new Chancellor of the Exchequer signaled more tax cuts might be in the pipeline. Markets are also expecting extreme turbulence, with sterling-dollar’s three month implied volatility surging 4.31 percentage points to 20.05% Monday. That’s fast approaching the high of 20.62% reached during the 2020 pandemic meltdown.
Bottom-line: OECD는 주요 20개국 대부분의 성장률 전망을 하향하고, 더 높은 정책금리를 예상한다고 함.
The world as a whole has been jolted by the war in Ukraine, according to the OECD, which cut almost all growth forecasts for the Group of 20 next year while anticipating further interest-rate hikes too. The global economy will expand just 2.2% in 2023, the Paris-based organization said Monday. It slashed GDP forecasts for most of the G-20, with only Indonesia featuring a moderately higher outlook. Many of the group face noticeably faster inflation too.
The world as a whole has been jolted by the war in Ukraine, according to the OECD, which cut almost all growth forecasts for the Group of 20 next year while anticipating further interest-rate hikes too. The global economy will expand just 2.2% in 2023, the Paris-based organization said Monday. It slashed GDP forecasts for most of the G-20, with only Indonesia featuring a moderately higher outlook. Many of the group face noticeably faster inflation too.