European stocks plunging 20%. Junk credit spreads widening past 2020 crisis levels. The euro sinking to just 90 cents. The predictions are ominous for financial markets if Russia cuts off all the gas supply to Europe. Shipments are currently running at reduced levels with the main pipeline shut for a 10-day maintenance, and fears are building over whether Moscow will turn the tap back on.

함의: 러시아가 가스관을 완전히 잠궈버린다면, 현재가 끝이 아닐 것임.

The oil outlook isn't getting brighter. OPEC's first glimpse of the market for 2023 suggests no relief for consumers, with expectations that global crude demand growth will exceed the increase in supplies by 1 million barrels a day next year. To fill the gap, the cartel would need to significantly hike output, but members are already falling far behind the targets due to underinvestment and political instability. Despite the grim outlook, WTI fell more than 8% on recession concerns.

함의: 내년 수요를 맞출 생산 여력이 부족함에도 경기침체 우려로 유가는 큰 폭 하락함.

"Art is the only way to run away without leaving home."

- Twyla Tharp

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics said Tuesday that a release circulating online purporting to show hotly-anticipated June inflation figures was a forgery. “We are aware of a fake version of the June 2022 Consumer Price Index news release that is being circulated online,” BLS spokesperson Cody Parkinson said in an emailed statement.
The Labor Department agency is scheduled to release the June CPI report on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. in Washington, Parkinson said.

함의: 정품 발매 시기는 오늘.

Alphabet Inc.’s Google plans to slow hiring for the remainder of the year in the face of a potential economic recession, Chief Executive Officer Sundar Pichai said Tuesday in an email to staff. Pichai said the company will focus on hiring “engineering, technical and other critical roles,” in 2022 and 2023, according to a copy of the email viewed by Bloomberg News. “Moving forward, we need to be more entrepreneurial, working with greater urgency, sharper focus, and more hunger than we’ve shown on sunnier days,” Pichai wrote. “In some cases, that means consolidating where investments overlap and streamlining processes.”

함의: 가뭄에 대비하듯 핵심영역을 제외하고 조직 내 효율적 통합, 채용 축소를 진행하겠다고 함.

Bank of Korea Ramps Up Inflation Fight With Larger Rate Hike. The Bank of Korea doubled the margin of its latest rate hike on Wednesday, as it stepped up its battle against inflation now running at a 23-year high.

The Fed is already seen as well-nigh certain to hit the economy with another 75bps hike this month. Wednesday’s US CPI report is expected to show 8.8% annual headline inflation, the strongest in 41 years. Even if forecasters are correct and core CPI slows down, traders are unlikely to noticeably scale down their expectations for this month. The key to watch in the rates space will be what traders price for the following three meetings this year -- Sept. 21, Nov. 2 and Dec. 14. Swaps contracts already show the base case for September is that the Fed slows its pace by hiking “only” 50bps, with ~30% odds for another 75bp move. After that they are evenly split on whether the next meet brings 50 or 25, and traders even see potential that December brings a pause.

함의: 트레이더들은 중앙은행의 금리인상 폭이 서서히 줄어들다 12월에는 인상을 잠시 멈출 수도 있다고 생각함.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry has refused to comment on Xi’s vaccination status. Xi’s own statements on vaccines have focused on demands to make them a “global public good,” and advances in science, rather calls for the broader population at home to take them.

함의: 정작 너는...

Shares of Tianqi Lithium Corp. fell as much as 11% in Hong Kong, following the largest share sale in the Asian financial hub this year. The H-shares dropped to as low as HK$72.65 in early trade on Wednesday. The supplier of the key material used in batteries, already listed in Shenzhen, sold the stock at HK$82 a piece in a secondary listing in Hong Kong. That was the top of a marketed range in an offering that raised about HK$13.5 billion ($1.7 billion). The slump suggests investors remain wary of trading new-listed stocks in Hong Kong’s exchange. Big offerings have dwindled this year amid rising inflation, hawkish central banks and a jump in volatility that has led the Hang Seng Index to retreat more than 10% this year. Three other companies that debuted in the city on Wednesday also dropped. 

함의: IPO 대어를 포함한 3개의 금일 신규 상장주가 하락하며, 홍콩 주식시장과 거시환경에 대한 투자자의 여전한 우려를 보여줌.

The standout reaction after the Bank of Korea’s 50bps hike today was the jump for 3-year KRW bond futures when the BOK Governor said that 25bps increases were desirable going forward. Just wait for a similar response from short-term Treasuries when the Fed is ready to dial down on the jumbo hikes. Of course traders need to get through the CPI report later on Wednesday. But whatever the inflation report delivers the Fed is likely to raise by 75bps later this month. Credibility is on the line for Powell and friends as they have vowed to beat inflation.

함의: 한국 중앙은행 총재가 다음 인상은 25bp라고 발언한 뒤 3년물 국채 움직임은, 미국 중앙은행의 금리인상 속도 조절 힌트로 유사한 상황에 활용할 수 있을 것임.

Global stock traders trying to gauge if the bear-market bottom is behind us should be careful according to at least one signal coming from corporate bonds. The earnings yield on the MSCI AC World Index is still trading at a significant premium to the yield on the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Corporate Bond Index. While that shows stocks are arguably attractive relative to their credit cousins, during the last two major market downturns -- the global financial crisis and dotcom crash -- equities slumped to trade at a discount.

함의: 주식이 저점을 형성했다고 판단하기에는 일드 갭이 여전히 프리미엄 상태에 있음.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO Jamie Dimon says US Federal Reserve’s forecast for 4% inflation this year is “too optimistic,” according to interview published in Wednesday edition of French newspaper Le Figaro.

함의: 중앙은행의 인플레이션 전망이 지나치게 낙관적이라 주장.

Conditions are now less favorable for stock pickers and it may be harder for them to outperform in 2H as rising macro risks and volatility have fueled increase in pairwise stock correlations, Bernstein strategists say. Quant funds are staging a comeback after years of underperformance as good factor selection is more likely to be rewarded, strategists led by Sarah McCarthy write in a note. Fundamental equity factors have started to work again, value tilt is beneficial, and yield, low volatility and quality have also contributed to the recovery of quant funds.

함의: 현재 거시경제 환경에서 기업 특성을 무시한 동시적 주가 움직임이 많기 때문에, 개별 기업 선별보다 계량적 특성 집단으로 투자하는 것이 더 유리하다고 함.

The diverging views of private infrastructure investors from the stock market’s are especially visible when it comes to the masts on which mobile phone operators hang their antennae. Deutsche Telekom AG’s strategic review of its towers business, worth a mooted $20 billion, has attracted significant private equity interest. These assets are attractive in a stagflationary world, say analysts at Citigroup Inc. Mobile operators sign long-term contracts, typically accepting some indexation to consumer-price inflation albeit often subject to a cap). There’s also growth potential from the rollout of 5G mobile networks and the opportunity to add more customers per mast as telecom owners cease to monopolize the real estate. Hence, towers command valuations well in excess of their current or former telecom parents.

함의: 통신은 장기계약일 뿐 아니라 가격탄력성도 낮기에 스태그플레이션을 전망하는 투자자에게 적격임.

A quarter of Americans surveyed say they will buy an electric vehicle as their next automobile as gasoline prices soar to record levels. Millennials are the most eager to electrify their ride, with 30% saying they plan to buy an EV next, according to a national survey by the American Automobile Association. Of those looking to buy a plug-in vehicle, 77% said the interest was driven by a desire to save on fuel costs.

함의: 오늘 파크원 비어있던 EV 주차 자리를 보며 들었던 생각.

China is again reminding the world its status as a manufacturing powerhouse. The latest June data shows trade balance logged $98b in surplus, which is over 27% more than Bloomberg’s median estimate of $77b. The year-to-date surplus figure as of June has already surpassed the entire trade surplus of 2018. Blowout exports figures can very well give China growth an extra boost, and it might gives authorities less of an incentive to aggressively devalue the yuan.

함의: 중국의 무역 흑자폭이 추정치를 +27% 상회, 반년 흑자 규모가 2018년간을 규모를 상회하며 제조 강국의 면모를 보여줌.