Bottom-line: 모건스탠리가 한국 및 대만, 업종에서는 반도체와 하드웨어를 비중확대로 투자의견 상향을 함. 1995년 이후 가장 긴 약세장, 평균보다 높은 고점 대비 하락폭, 최저에 다가선 밸류에이션이 항복의 징후로 봤고, 다음 초기 사이클을 위한 묘목을 심을 때라 주장함.
There is high chance that a bottom can form in emerging and Asian equities from current levels as “signs of capitulation are abundant,” Morgan Stanley said, upgrading the regions to overweight from equal-weight. “It’s time to plant saplings for next cycle,” strategists including Jonathan Garner wrote in a note on Tuesday, citing EMs suffering the longest bear market since 1995, a higher-than-average fall from peak to trough and valuations that are near bottom. Investors should now “rotate towards proven early-cycle beneficiaries” they wrote, upgrading Korea and Taiwan, and semiconductor and tech hardware to overweight.
There is high chance that a bottom can form in emerging and Asian equities from current levels as “signs of capitulation are abundant,” Morgan Stanley said, upgrading the regions to overweight from equal-weight. “It’s time to plant saplings for next cycle,” strategists including Jonathan Garner wrote in a note on Tuesday, citing EMs suffering the longest bear market since 1995, a higher-than-average fall from peak to trough and valuations that are near bottom. Investors should now “rotate towards proven early-cycle beneficiaries” they wrote, upgrading Korea and Taiwan, and semiconductor and tech hardware to overweight.
Market Implication: 이틀 간 6% 상승으로 고점 대비 낙폭이 -25%에 불과한 주식시장이 경기침체를 이제 반영하기 시작했을 뿐이란 씨티의 의견으로 골드만삭스나 메릴린치와 궤를 같이 하는 의견임. 주목할 점은 그보다 상관관계에 대한 내용이며, 시장을 이해하는데 도움이 됨. 서로 다른 주식 간 가격의 움직임이 매우 동조화 된 시장에선 개별 주식의 실적 호재가 그리 큰 도움이 되지 않음. 되려 금리와 신용과 같은 거시경제 변수에 쓸려 다닐 것으로 예측했음. 올해 매크로 펀드나 퀀트 펀드가 우수한 수익을 거둔 이유는 이처럼 개별 기업을 선별하는 안목이 있어도 주식 간 차별성이 떨어지고 거시경제 변수에 따라 군집을 이뤄 동시에 움직이기 때문임. 매크로를 중요하게 볼 때와 그렇지 않을 때를 이처럼 주식 간 상관관계의 높고 낮음으로 가늠할 수 있음.
US stocks may resume their slump as they have only just begun to price in a recession, according to Citigroup Inc.’s quant strategists. The market has turned “decidedly defensive again,” the strategists including Hong Li wrote in a note Tuesday. Recent synchronized moves suggest “equity investors are paying closer attention to the increased credit risk,” they wrote. To make matters worse, the upcoming earnings season may do little to help sentiment given that stock correlations have reached the highest since the onset of the pandemic, according to the note. That suggests individual results may get drowned out by extreme moves in interest rates and credit markets. The bearish view echoes similar calls from other investment banks, including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Bank of America Corp., concerned that the S&P 500 has yet to bottom out as a hawkish Federal Reserve pressures earnings and equity valuations. The S&P 500 has risen almost 6% over the past two days after dropping to its lowest since November 2020 on Friday. While the benchmark has retreated as much as 25% from its record high in January, the slump was less than half of the 56% peak-to-trough plunge during the global financial crisis.
US stocks may resume their slump as they have only just begun to price in a recession, according to Citigroup Inc.’s quant strategists. The market has turned “decidedly defensive again,” the strategists including Hong Li wrote in a note Tuesday. Recent synchronized moves suggest “equity investors are paying closer attention to the increased credit risk,” they wrote. To make matters worse, the upcoming earnings season may do little to help sentiment given that stock correlations have reached the highest since the onset of the pandemic, according to the note. That suggests individual results may get drowned out by extreme moves in interest rates and credit markets. The bearish view echoes similar calls from other investment banks, including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Bank of America Corp., concerned that the S&P 500 has yet to bottom out as a hawkish Federal Reserve pressures earnings and equity valuations. The S&P 500 has risen almost 6% over the past two days after dropping to its lowest since November 2020 on Friday. While the benchmark has retreated as much as 25% from its record high in January, the slump was less than half of the 56% peak-to-trough plunge during the global financial crisis.
'i' Think: 지난 금요일에 발표 된 R**의 개념은 기존의 R*이 수요와 공급의 균형에서 인플레이션이 발생하지 않는 중립금리라면, R**은 금융시스템이 안정적일 수 있는 중립금리임. 낮은 금리로 오랜 기간이 지난 현재에 R**이 R*보다 낮아졌을 뿐 아니라 그 차이도 확대됨. 손쉽게 사용할 수 있는 유동성 때문에 과도하게 형성 된 레버리지로 인해 실물경제가 R*에 해당하는 금리까지 버틸 여력이 없어졌음. 쉽게 말해, 너무 높은 물가와 강력한 고용 시장을 진정시키는 중립금리까지 금리인상을 하려는데 신용 시장 냉각, 국채 유동성 문제, 조달시장 악화와 같이 벌써부터 금융 안정성이 위협받고 있다는 것임. 다른 의미로 중앙은행이 노동시장에 영향을 미칠만큼의 금리를 인상하기 전에 이미 금융 시스템이 불안해진다는 것임. 이는 금융 시스템의 불안정성 때문에 금리인상을 도중에 중단할 경우 결국 인플레이션을 잡을 수 없다는 것임. 중앙은행이 이런 R*과 R** 사이의 간극을 채우려는 동안 아마도 금리는 지금보다 높을 것이고 자산시장은 더 하락할 것으로 보임. 누군가 2004년에서 2006년, 2015년에서 2019년의 중앙은행 금리인상 시기를 떠올린다면, 당시 R*과 R** 사이의 간극이 크지도 않았고, 솔직한 말로 진정한 인플레이션과의 전쟁도 없었음. 결론적으로, 이번 사이클에서 인플레이션과 전쟁이 시작되기도 전에 금융 불안정성이 무대의 중심에 설 수 있을까? 그렇지 않을 것 같음.
This concept of R** presented in a paper at the NY Fed Conference last Friday explains the issue facing the Fed as the market desperately tries to identify the ingredients for a Fed pivot.
The paper lays out:
R* = neutral rate for the REAL ECONOMY where supply=demand and there’s no inflation
R** = neutral rate for FINANCIAL STABILITY
The paper argues that after a time of sustained low rates (ie: currently), the gap between R** and R* widens, with R** falling below R*. With excess leverage built up in the economy (I’m staring at you pension funds), the financial system cannot sustain rates high enough to reach R* in the real economy. There are parallels to today’s backdrop: core PCE is too high, the labor market is too strong. Yet financial stability is already becoming a problem: credit markets freezing up, Treasury liquidity deteriorating, and dollar funding stretched. What does this widening gap mean? The financial system becomes unstable before the Fed is able to raise rates high enough to impact the labor market. In effect, the Fed will fail to rein in inflation before it’s forced to pause to tackle financial instability at home. This is the pickle that the BOE blew wide open last week with their QE operation. The next scenario for markets to grapple with: how to price a Fed that attempts to manage financial stability concerns (akin to the BOE’s liquidity operations) alongside rate hikes? Perhaps there’s a risk of another bout of risk assets plummeting and yields higher before we get to this point. Friday’s jobs figure could be a test. A hot NFP print on could push this narrative to the next level. But look back at the two previous Fed hiking cycles in 2004-2006 and in 2015-2019. Back then maybe the gap between R* and R** was small, so it didn’t matter. And lets be honest, we didn’t have a real inflation fight back then. But with this new, wider gap between the two, could financial instability take center stage before the inflation fight even begins?
This concept of R** presented in a paper at the NY Fed Conference last Friday explains the issue facing the Fed as the market desperately tries to identify the ingredients for a Fed pivot.
The paper lays out:
R* = neutral rate for the REAL ECONOMY where supply=demand and there’s no inflation
R** = neutral rate for FINANCIAL STABILITY
The paper argues that after a time of sustained low rates (ie: currently), the gap between R** and R* widens, with R** falling below R*. With excess leverage built up in the economy (I’m staring at you pension funds), the financial system cannot sustain rates high enough to reach R* in the real economy. There are parallels to today’s backdrop: core PCE is too high, the labor market is too strong. Yet financial stability is already becoming a problem: credit markets freezing up, Treasury liquidity deteriorating, and dollar funding stretched. What does this widening gap mean? The financial system becomes unstable before the Fed is able to raise rates high enough to impact the labor market. In effect, the Fed will fail to rein in inflation before it’s forced to pause to tackle financial instability at home. This is the pickle that the BOE blew wide open last week with their QE operation. The next scenario for markets to grapple with: how to price a Fed that attempts to manage financial stability concerns (akin to the BOE’s liquidity operations) alongside rate hikes? Perhaps there’s a risk of another bout of risk assets plummeting and yields higher before we get to this point. Friday’s jobs figure could be a test. A hot NFP print on could push this narrative to the next level. But look back at the two previous Fed hiking cycles in 2004-2006 and in 2015-2019. Back then maybe the gap between R* and R** was small, so it didn’t matter. And lets be honest, we didn’t have a real inflation fight back then. But with this new, wider gap between the two, could financial instability take center stage before the inflation fight even begins?
US stocks ended in the red but were way off session lows as traders digested solid economic data and more Fedspeak. The S&P 500 dropped 0.2%, trimming a loss of as much as 1.8%.
Bottom-line: 전세계 외환 보유고가 2003년 블룸버그가 집계를 시작한 이래 가장 큰 폭인 -7.8%(1조 달러 상당) 감소함. 엔화와 유로처럼 달러 대비 약세로 인한 평가 상 가치 감소도 일부 있지만, 통화가치 절하를 방어해야 하는 중앙은행들에게 외환 보유고 감소는 압박이 될 수 밖에 없음.
Global foreign-currency reserves are falling at the fastest pace on record as central banks from India to the Czech Republic intervene to support their currencies. Reserves have declined by about $1 trillion, or 7.8%, this year to $12 trillion, the biggest drop since Bloomberg started to compile the data in 2003. Part of the slump is simply due to valuation changes. As the dollar jumped to two-decade highs against other reserve currencies, like the euro and yen, it reduced the dollar value of the holdings of these currencies. But the dwindling reserves also reflect the stress in the currency market that is forcing a growing number of central banks to dip into their war chests to fend off the depreciation.
Global foreign-currency reserves are falling at the fastest pace on record as central banks from India to the Czech Republic intervene to support their currencies. Reserves have declined by about $1 trillion, or 7.8%, this year to $12 trillion, the biggest drop since Bloomberg started to compile the data in 2003. Part of the slump is simply due to valuation changes. As the dollar jumped to two-decade highs against other reserve currencies, like the euro and yen, it reduced the dollar value of the holdings of these currencies. But the dwindling reserves also reflect the stress in the currency market that is forcing a growing number of central banks to dip into their war chests to fend off the depreciation.
Bottom-line: 파월 의장이 1980년대가 우리에게 준 교훈은 성장이 아닌 물가에 집중하라는 것이라 발언했고, 어제도 메리 달리나 라파엘 보스틱이 지속적인 금리인상을 통해 인플레이션을 통제해야 한다고 발언했음. 그럼에도 선물시장은 지정학적, 경제적 위험이 미국 및 다른 지역을 침체에 빠트릴 것이란 우려와 함께 사라졌던 내년 및 내후년 금리인하 기대를 다시 반영하기 시작하는 중임. 어쩌면 중앙은행이 이토록 금리인상의 지속성이라는 주문을 시장에 외치는 이유는 곧 금융시장 환경이 완화될 수 있다는 힌트를 주기 싫은 의도일 수도 있음. 어느 순간 경제상황의 역풍이 오면 그들의 행보를 멈춰야 할 수도 있기 때문임.
Federal Reserve officials keep repeating the mantra they don’t plan to cut interest rates next year. Traders keep doubting them. Eurodollar futures showed reduced expectations Wednesday for Fed interest-rate cuts in 2023 but still price in around a one quarter-point move and at least two more in 2024. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly and Fed Atlanta President Raphael Bostic were the latest to bang the drum on the need to keep tightening in place to reduce inflation that remains near a four-decade high. Traders briefly erased bets on 2023 cuts after the Fed’s strongly hawkish meeting last month, but a series of global economic and geopolitical shocks have reinforced deep concerns that the US and other major economies will tip into recession. As much as Fed Chair Jerome Powell has insisted the lessons of the 1980s show the need to focus on inflation and not growth, investors refuse to believe he will remain steadfast in the face of a severe downturn. “Fed officials’ consistent push back against rate cuts may reflect a desire to avoid hinting at any loosening in financial conditions,” said Su-Lin Ong, head of Australian economic and fixed-income strategy at Royal Bank of Canada. “If they remain that determined and move into very restrictive territory, as the dot plots would suggest, a US recession is likely and some reversal of policy will likely be needed at some stage.”.
Federal Reserve officials keep repeating the mantra they don’t plan to cut interest rates next year. Traders keep doubting them. Eurodollar futures showed reduced expectations Wednesday for Fed interest-rate cuts in 2023 but still price in around a one quarter-point move and at least two more in 2024. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly and Fed Atlanta President Raphael Bostic were the latest to bang the drum on the need to keep tightening in place to reduce inflation that remains near a four-decade high. Traders briefly erased bets on 2023 cuts after the Fed’s strongly hawkish meeting last month, but a series of global economic and geopolitical shocks have reinforced deep concerns that the US and other major economies will tip into recession. As much as Fed Chair Jerome Powell has insisted the lessons of the 1980s show the need to focus on inflation and not growth, investors refuse to believe he will remain steadfast in the face of a severe downturn. “Fed officials’ consistent push back against rate cuts may reflect a desire to avoid hinting at any loosening in financial conditions,” said Su-Lin Ong, head of Australian economic and fixed-income strategy at Royal Bank of Canada. “If they remain that determined and move into very restrictive territory, as the dot plots would suggest, a US recession is likely and some reversal of policy will likely be needed at some stage.”.
Bottom-line: 트러스, 그녀가 온 지 이제 한달, 그러나 크리스마스에도 함께 할 수 있을지 의문이며, 심지어 보리스 존슨의 복귀에 베팅하는 쪽이 있을 정도로 리더십에 큰 흠이 난 것으로 보임.
Only four weeks into her leadership, all the talk at the Conservative Party conference in Birmingham this week was whether UK prime minister Liz Truss will survive until Christmas. Perhaps that’s par for the course. The Tories are often said to have only two settings: complacency and panic. And panic is now the order of the day. Can Truss restore calm? The markets barely reacted in the wake of her first keynote speech on Wednesday — a blessing after last week’s hair-raising ride. But only when Parliament opens next week will she find out whether her MPs give a hearing to her persistent gospel of “growth, growth, growth.” Having listened to the chatter in the conference bars and corridors, the omens look bleak. Another monthslong leadership election, so soon after the last, would surely test the patience of voters. However, following the disastrous reception of Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget last week, there is even speculation that Boris Johnson could stage a comeback to save his party.
Only four weeks into her leadership, all the talk at the Conservative Party conference in Birmingham this week was whether UK prime minister Liz Truss will survive until Christmas. Perhaps that’s par for the course. The Tories are often said to have only two settings: complacency and panic. And panic is now the order of the day. Can Truss restore calm? The markets barely reacted in the wake of her first keynote speech on Wednesday — a blessing after last week’s hair-raising ride. But only when Parliament opens next week will she find out whether her MPs give a hearing to her persistent gospel of “growth, growth, growth.” Having listened to the chatter in the conference bars and corridors, the omens look bleak. Another monthslong leadership election, so soon after the last, would surely test the patience of voters. However, following the disastrous reception of Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget last week, there is even speculation that Boris Johnson could stage a comeback to save his party.
Bottom-line: 전반적인 인생도, 금융시장도 누구에게 조언을 받는지가 중요함. 매 분기 찾아오는 실적발표 또한 그런데, 우리는 경영진이 무엇을 말하는지 그다지 신경 쓸 필요가 없음. 노무라의 자연어 처리를 통한 감정분석 포트폴리오는 둘은, 차라리 애널리스트가 어떤 질문을 던지는지에 관심을 둬야 한다고 함. 경영진의 발언을 통한 감정분석 매수/매도 포트폴리오 보다 애널리스트의 질문을 통한 감정분석 매수/매도 포트폴리오가 더 나은 성과를 냈고, 이는 애널리스트가 편향이 덜하고 더 현실적이라 그렇다고 봤음.
As ever, in financial markets and broadly in life, it matters from whom you get your advice. And that means that, contrary to intuition, it could be less worthwhile to listen to what executives say in earnings calls, and instead take account of the questions they are being asked. To see why, watch the performance of two long-short portfolios constructed by Nomura. One is based on the remarks of company management and the other on questions from analyst during earnings calls. These calls, which happen once per quarter, are listened to by investors, reporters, analysts and, for some companies, even retail traders. It’s a chance for executives to either defend their results or grandstand, and for shareholders to ask about the profound or mundane. As the trannoscripts are published, they also provide a golden opportunity for Big Data, sifting through them for patterns that quants can use to invest. In using natural-language processing — technology that allows computers to understand the ways in which humans read and write — to comb through trannoscripts, Nomura found that the analyst sentiment portfolio performed better than the management sentiment portfolio. Why? Strategists led by Joseph Mezrich posit that it could be for the simple fact that analysts are less biased than management, which means their sentiment more closely reflects reality.
As ever, in financial markets and broadly in life, it matters from whom you get your advice. And that means that, contrary to intuition, it could be less worthwhile to listen to what executives say in earnings calls, and instead take account of the questions they are being asked. To see why, watch the performance of two long-short portfolios constructed by Nomura. One is based on the remarks of company management and the other on questions from analyst during earnings calls. These calls, which happen once per quarter, are listened to by investors, reporters, analysts and, for some companies, even retail traders. It’s a chance for executives to either defend their results or grandstand, and for shareholders to ask about the profound or mundane. As the trannoscripts are published, they also provide a golden opportunity for Big Data, sifting through them for patterns that quants can use to invest. In using natural-language processing — technology that allows computers to understand the ways in which humans read and write — to comb through trannoscripts, Nomura found that the analyst sentiment portfolio performed better than the management sentiment portfolio. Why? Strategists led by Joseph Mezrich posit that it could be for the simple fact that analysts are less biased than management, which means their sentiment more closely reflects reality.
Bottom-line: 포르쉐의 시가총액이 상장 일주일만에 모회사인 폭스바겐의 시가총액을 추월함. 또한 유럽 내 자동차 상장주식 중 가장 큰 시가총액으로 자리 잡았음. 참고로 폭스바겐은 연간 천만대의 자동차를 만들지만, 포르쉐는 연간 30만대를 인도함.
Porsche AG became Europe’s most valuable automaker a week after its initial public offering when its market capitalization overtook parent Volkswagen AG. The German sports-car maker’s preferred shares were up 3.3% at 90.78 euros at 1:02 p.m. in Frankfurt, giving it a market value of 82.7 billion euros ($81.7 billion) to edge past Volkswagen’s valuation of 78.1 billion euros. VW sells some 10 million vehicles in a typical year compared to Porsche’s 300,000 deliveries. Europe’s largest carmaker by revenue last week raised 9.4 billion euros when Porsche, one of the group’s key profit contributors, returned to the stock market in what was the region’s biggest listing in a decade since miner Glencore Plc.
Porsche AG became Europe’s most valuable automaker a week after its initial public offering when its market capitalization overtook parent Volkswagen AG. The German sports-car maker’s preferred shares were up 3.3% at 90.78 euros at 1:02 p.m. in Frankfurt, giving it a market value of 82.7 billion euros ($81.7 billion) to edge past Volkswagen’s valuation of 78.1 billion euros. VW sells some 10 million vehicles in a typical year compared to Porsche’s 300,000 deliveries. Europe’s largest carmaker by revenue last week raised 9.4 billion euros when Porsche, one of the group’s key profit contributors, returned to the stock market in what was the region’s biggest listing in a decade since miner Glencore Plc.
Bottom-line: 1929년 이후 최악의 약세 시장에 있지만, 생각과 다르게 하락에 대한 보험적 수요는 줄어들고 있음. 다르게 말하면, 중앙은행이 시장을 구해줄 것으로 기대하고 있음.
The current bear market is among the worst since 1929. Today’s bear is consistent with previous stock slumps that have coincided with a recession. But curiously, the demand for crash insurance has been falling, not rising as you’d expect. It seems the market is anticipating that the lower prices get, the less chance they have of going even lower -- in other words, the Fed put is getting closer. Market Expects a Recession and a Fed Rescue.
The current bear market is among the worst since 1929. Today’s bear is consistent with previous stock slumps that have coincided with a recession. But curiously, the demand for crash insurance has been falling, not rising as you’d expect. It seems the market is anticipating that the lower prices get, the less chance they have of going even lower -- in other words, the Fed put is getting closer. Market Expects a Recession and a Fed Rescue.
US stocks responded by declining, as traders await Friday's jobs report. The gain in nonfarm payrolls probably eased to 250,000 in September, analysts estimate. On Thursday, jobless claims surprised on upside, but remained consistent with a strong labor market. The dollar and Treasury yields gained, as did oil.
Bottom-line: 목요일 파생상품 시장의 가장 주목할만한 거래는 내년 3월 S&P 500 변동성 지수가 150에 달할 것에 베팅하며 95만불의 변동성 지수를 기초자산으로 하는 콜 옵션 블락딜이 진행된 것임. 이 거래는 150 행사가의 콜 옵션의 델타가 현재 낮은 수준이라 향후 심각한 시장 충격이 올 경우 저렴한 비용으로 위험을 헤지한 것임. 또한 이 옵션은 변동성 지수가 150에 도달하지 않아도, 변동성 지수(VIX) 및 해당 지수의 변동성(VVIX)이 동시에 오른다면 프리미엄 대비 5~10배의 수익을 거둘 수 있음. 참고로, 이 옵션의 만기까지 네번의 금리결정과 여섯번의 물가지표 발표가 남음.
Uncertainty about the upcoming jobs report pushed the Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, to close above 30 on Thursday. And someone is wagering that it won’t stop there. Shortly before the market closed, a trader bet that the VIX could increase to 150 by late March. Through a series of block trades, the trader -- most likely one person, according to market participants -- bought 50,000 call options, paying $950,000. It was the most-active VIX options contract Thursday. “It may be seen as a cheap way to hedge if we see another significant crash,” said Michael Beth, director of trading at WallachBeth Capital. “While the contract has low delta now, if things move quickly, we can see the value of the contract significantly increase.”. Between now and March 22 when the contracts expire, investors face a slew of potentially market-moving events, like four interest-rate announcements and six inflation prints. The buyer of the contracts could be in a situation where he needs to have a hedge that can serve as protection in a panic scenario, should one occur, according to Chris Murphy, co-head of derivatives strategy at Susquehanna International Group. “This tail hedge doesn’t need the VIX to actually get close to 150,” Murphy said. “But if VIX and VVIX both spike, the value of these calls could grow five-10 fold just due to the Vega.”.
Uncertainty about the upcoming jobs report pushed the Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, to close above 30 on Thursday. And someone is wagering that it won’t stop there. Shortly before the market closed, a trader bet that the VIX could increase to 150 by late March. Through a series of block trades, the trader -- most likely one person, according to market participants -- bought 50,000 call options, paying $950,000. It was the most-active VIX options contract Thursday. “It may be seen as a cheap way to hedge if we see another significant crash,” said Michael Beth, director of trading at WallachBeth Capital. “While the contract has low delta now, if things move quickly, we can see the value of the contract significantly increase.”. Between now and March 22 when the contracts expire, investors face a slew of potentially market-moving events, like four interest-rate announcements and six inflation prints. The buyer of the contracts could be in a situation where he needs to have a hedge that can serve as protection in a panic scenario, should one occur, according to Chris Murphy, co-head of derivatives strategy at Susquehanna International Group. “This tail hedge doesn’t need the VIX to actually get close to 150,” Murphy said. “But if VIX and VVIX both spike, the value of these calls could grow five-10 fold just due to the Vega.”.
Bottom-line: 바이든 대통령이 중국이 대만을 침공할 시에 미국 군사력을 행사하겠다고 명확히 함. 이는 첨단 반도체 산업, 특히 TSMC에 치명적이며, 최악의 경우 미국은 기술력이 집대성 된 기술 인력들을 철수시킬 것이라 함. 중국의 대만 침공과 그에 따른 TSMC 손실의 경제 비용은 1조 달러로, 연간 전체 반도체 산업 매출액의 두 배임.
President Joe Biden has been explicit in vowing to commit US forces in the event of a Chinese attack on Taiwan. The question occupying US and Taiwanese officials is the fate of the island’s flagship semiconductor industry. Contingency planning for a potential assault on Taiwan has been stepped up after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to people familiar with the Biden administration’s deliberations. The scenarios attach heightened strategic significance to the island’s cutting-edge chip industry, led by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. In the worst case, they say, the US would consider evacuating Taiwan’s highly skilled chip engineers. Estimates by the US National Security Council project that a Chinese invasion and the loss of TSMC could disrupt the world economy to the tune of more than $1 trillion, around twice the value of the entire semiconductor industry’s annual global sales.
President Joe Biden has been explicit in vowing to commit US forces in the event of a Chinese attack on Taiwan. The question occupying US and Taiwanese officials is the fate of the island’s flagship semiconductor industry. Contingency planning for a potential assault on Taiwan has been stepped up after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to people familiar with the Biden administration’s deliberations. The scenarios attach heightened strategic significance to the island’s cutting-edge chip industry, led by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. In the worst case, they say, the US would consider evacuating Taiwan’s highly skilled chip engineers. Estimates by the US National Security Council project that a Chinese invasion and the loss of TSMC could disrupt the world economy to the tune of more than $1 trillion, around twice the value of the entire semiconductor industry’s annual global sales.
Market Implication: 지금 극단의 공포를 회피하기 위한 대규모 헤지 거래를 하는 사람들은 어리석은 것일까? 아마도 최고점 대비 하락한 가격 폭만 보고 있다면 그럴 수 있음. 지각과 현실의 차이를 확인해보자면, 크레디트 스위스가 고안한 공포 지수가 2008년 이후 가장 낮고, 희박한 발생 확률의 위험을 헤지하는 비용의 척도인 왜도 지수 또한 2020년 1분기 저점에서 그리 멀리 떨어져있지 않음. 즉, 큰 폭의 가격 움직임에 대한 헤지 수요가 의미있게 증가한 증거가 없음. 또한 거래자들이 포트폴리오에서 이미 위험자산을 상당히 제거하고, 레버리지 비율을 축소한 것으로 보이지만, 이것이 현재 지점에서 상승해야 한다는 의미는 아님. 씨티의 계량분석 자료가 지적했듯이 미국 증시는 이제서야 침체를 가격에 반영하기 시작했음.
A doomsday bet on the US stock market had option traders chins wagging Thursday, but the reality is there is little evidence of an increase in demand for protection against massive price swings. The CBOE Skew Index, which tracks the cost of tail-risk equity protection, is not far off its lowest since 2020. Credit Suisse’s Fear Barometer -- a gauge of investor sentiment derived from the options market -- hit its lowest since 2008 just last month. While counter-intuitive given the expectation that a global recession is looming, that could well be a sign traders have already deleveraged and taken their riskiest positions off the table. Still, that doesn’t mean it’s a signal that shares will necessarily rise from here -- US equities have only just begun to price in a US downturn, as Citigroup’s quant strategists reminded us this week.
A doomsday bet on the US stock market had option traders chins wagging Thursday, but the reality is there is little evidence of an increase in demand for protection against massive price swings. The CBOE Skew Index, which tracks the cost of tail-risk equity protection, is not far off its lowest since 2020. Credit Suisse’s Fear Barometer -- a gauge of investor sentiment derived from the options market -- hit its lowest since 2008 just last month. While counter-intuitive given the expectation that a global recession is looming, that could well be a sign traders have already deleveraged and taken their riskiest positions off the table. Still, that doesn’t mean it’s a signal that shares will necessarily rise from here -- US equities have only just begun to price in a US downturn, as Citigroup’s quant strategists reminded us this week.