The Bank of England is likely to delay the sale of government bonds in a bid to foster greater stability in gilt markets, the Financial Times reports, without saying where it got the information.
Bottom-line: 10월 326명의 총 9,710억 달러를 운용 중인 펀드 매니저를 대상으로 설문한 결과는 거시경제에 대한 항복, 투자자들의 항복, 정책 항복의 시작이 보임. 설문 응답 항목 중 포트폴리오 내 현금 비중을 6.3%로 보유 중으로 응답했는데, 이는 2001년 4월래 최대치임. 또한 49%의 응답자가 주식 비중을 축소하고 있다고 답했음. 거의 대부분의 응답자가 향후 12개월 간 경제가 악화 될 것으로, 반면 79%의 응답자가 같은 기간 인플레이션은 하락할 것으로 전망함. 설문을 진행 한 뱅크 오브 아메리카는 이런 투자자들의 심리와 중앙은행의 금리인상 종료를 바탕으로 내년 상반기 중 증시는 바닥을 칠 것으로 봤음.
The sentiment on stocks and global growth among fund managers surveyed by Bank of America Corp. shows full capitulation, opening the way to an equities rally in 2023. The bank’s monthly global fund manager survey “screams macro capitulation, investor capitulation, start of policy capitulation,” strategists led by Michael Hartnett wrote in a note on Tuesday. They expect stocks to bottom in the first half of 2023 after the Federal Reserve finally pivots away from raising interest rates. “Market liquidity has deteriorated significantly,” the strategists said, noting that investors have 6.3% of their portfolios in cash, the highest since April 2001, and that a net 49% of participants are underweight equities. Nearly a record number of those surveyed said they expect a weaker economy in the next 12 months, while 79% forecast inflation will drop in the same period, according to the survey of 326 fund managers with $971 billion under management, which was conducted from Oct. 7 to Oct. 13. “While the stock market was immune to the bleak sentiment till last month, it has started to better reflect investors’ pessimism,” Hartnett wrote.
The sentiment on stocks and global growth among fund managers surveyed by Bank of America Corp. shows full capitulation, opening the way to an equities rally in 2023. The bank’s monthly global fund manager survey “screams macro capitulation, investor capitulation, start of policy capitulation,” strategists led by Michael Hartnett wrote in a note on Tuesday. They expect stocks to bottom in the first half of 2023 after the Federal Reserve finally pivots away from raising interest rates. “Market liquidity has deteriorated significantly,” the strategists said, noting that investors have 6.3% of their portfolios in cash, the highest since April 2001, and that a net 49% of participants are underweight equities. Nearly a record number of those surveyed said they expect a weaker economy in the next 12 months, while 79% forecast inflation will drop in the same period, according to the survey of 326 fund managers with $971 billion under management, which was conducted from Oct. 7 to Oct. 13. “While the stock market was immune to the bleak sentiment till last month, it has started to better reflect investors’ pessimism,” Hartnett wrote.
Bottom-line: 자산운용업을 영위하고 있는 맨 그룹의 대표인 루크 엘리스는 중앙은행이 인플레이션을 통제하는데 필요한 일을 아직 하지 않았다고 여기고 있다 말함. 이미 2년 전에 그 일을 했어야 했으며, 수년 간 이은 양적완화 때문에 자산가격 거품과 불평등이 만연한 때 인플레이션까지 가중되고 있다고 말함. 그의 가장 큰 걱정은 중앙은행이 이 문제를 바로 잡기 위한 조치를 망설이는 것 같단 것임. 정부, 기업, 가계를 불문하고 너무 많은 부채들이 언제나 낮은 이자로 사용할 수 있을 것으로 생각하며 팽창한 상태에 있는데, 이를 이용해 앞당겼던 소비가 이제는 부채를 갚아야 할 시기로 변화했음도 걱정했음.
Central banks haven’t yet taken the steps needed to get inflation under control, according to Luke Ellis, chief executive officer of hedge fund manager Man Group Plc. Years of quantitative easing have left many economies facing soaring prices and asset inequality, Ellis said at the Bloomberg Equality Summit on Tuesday. He likened inflation to fire and said central banks should have acted two years ago. “You’ve got to stamp it right out and make sure there’s no smoke left whatsoever, otherwise it will reignite,” Ellis said in an interview with Francine Lacqua. “My worry is what is likely to happen is that central banks and governments don’t want to take the immediate action.”. With inflation reaching four-decade highs in major economies including the UK and the US, central banks have begun to rapidly raise interest rates from rock-bottom. Ellis said the world had gotten used to low rates, and predicted that further hikes are coming.
“There are plenty of individuals and plenty of businesses and plenty of governments that have taken on too much debt on the assumption interest rates would always be very low,” he said. “They’ve pulled consumption forward and they’re going to have to pay it back now I’m afraid.”
Central banks haven’t yet taken the steps needed to get inflation under control, according to Luke Ellis, chief executive officer of hedge fund manager Man Group Plc. Years of quantitative easing have left many economies facing soaring prices and asset inequality, Ellis said at the Bloomberg Equality Summit on Tuesday. He likened inflation to fire and said central banks should have acted two years ago. “You’ve got to stamp it right out and make sure there’s no smoke left whatsoever, otherwise it will reignite,” Ellis said in an interview with Francine Lacqua. “My worry is what is likely to happen is that central banks and governments don’t want to take the immediate action.”. With inflation reaching four-decade highs in major economies including the UK and the US, central banks have begun to rapidly raise interest rates from rock-bottom. Ellis said the world had gotten used to low rates, and predicted that further hikes are coming.
“There are plenty of individuals and plenty of businesses and plenty of governments that have taken on too much debt on the assumption interest rates would always be very low,” he said. “They’ve pulled consumption forward and they’re going to have to pay it back now I’m afraid.”
Docent: 현재 미국 2년물 국채 금리는 4.428%임. 이 금리가 최소 5.45%까지 상승할 수 있다는 내용이며, 또한 중앙은행의 정책금리가 지속 유동적일 수 있다는 것을 주지시켜줌. 현재 선물 시장에서 트레이더들이 예상하고 있는 최종적인 정책금리는 4.96%며, 2년물 국채 금리는 이보다 낮게 거래되고 있음. 역사를 돌아보면, 중앙은행의 최종 정책금리 시점에서 2년물 국채 금리는 이보다 높게 거래되었고, 과거 5번 사례의 중앙값인 +47bp 차이를 대입하면 5% 이상까지 상승할 수 있단 주장임. 돌이켜보면 작년 12월 제시 된 점도표 상 최종금리는 2.1%, 올해 3월은 2.8%, 그리고 두 번의 점도표가 추가로 제시되며 3.8%, 4.6%까지 올라왔음. 만일, 고용시장이 지금처럼 단단하고 인플레이션의 의미있는 둔화가 보이지 않는다면 중앙은행은 최종 정책금리를 계속 높일 위험도 있음. 이미 0.75%던 2년물 국채 금리가 6배 오른 상황인데, 이후는 훨씬 높은 수준을 볼 수 있으며, 이는 젊은 트레이더들의 생애에서 경험해보지 못한 영역이 될 것임.
Treasury Yields of 5%+ Coming to Your Screen Soon. Treasury two-year yields may surge past 5% if interest rate traders are pricing the peak of the Fed funds rate accurately. The differential between front-end yields and the Fed's benchmark has always been positive before the conclusion of monetary tightening, according to an analysis of previous hiking cycles going back three decades. The median has been about 47 bps, suggesting that if traders are reading the tea leaves right, two-year yields may climb as high as around 5.45%. Swap markets are betting that the Fed funds rate will peak around 4.96%. As the chart shows, the projected yield for the front-end maturity is conservative, so there is scope for an overshoot. While we haven't seen a 5% yield on a two-year note in nearly two decades and such a prospect may sound distant, it pays to keep in mind that inflationary pressures in the US haven't really ebbed in the second half of this year, contrary to expectations. In fact, the latest University of Michigan survey shows that one-year-ahead inflation expectations have risen a considerable 40 bps to 5.1%, a piece of evidence that will keep Jerome Powell awake at night. Stubborn inflation has spurred the Fed to successively raise its estimate of the terminal rate in the past year. In December 2021, the dot plot showed a peak rate of 2.1%. By March this year, that estimate had climbed to 2.8%, which was subsequently lifted to 3.8% and then to 4.6% last month. If the labor market stays resilient in October and November and inflation doesn't slow, the dot plot may well shift upward again. All told, Treasury two-year notes have had a brutal year so far, with their yields surging about six-fold from around 0.75% at the end of last year. If inflation continues to be sticky, the Fed may yet revise its dot plot up, while yields surge past levels many young traders have never experienced.
Treasury Yields of 5%+ Coming to Your Screen Soon. Treasury two-year yields may surge past 5% if interest rate traders are pricing the peak of the Fed funds rate accurately. The differential between front-end yields and the Fed's benchmark has always been positive before the conclusion of monetary tightening, according to an analysis of previous hiking cycles going back three decades. The median has been about 47 bps, suggesting that if traders are reading the tea leaves right, two-year yields may climb as high as around 5.45%. Swap markets are betting that the Fed funds rate will peak around 4.96%. As the chart shows, the projected yield for the front-end maturity is conservative, so there is scope for an overshoot. While we haven't seen a 5% yield on a two-year note in nearly two decades and such a prospect may sound distant, it pays to keep in mind that inflationary pressures in the US haven't really ebbed in the second half of this year, contrary to expectations. In fact, the latest University of Michigan survey shows that one-year-ahead inflation expectations have risen a considerable 40 bps to 5.1%, a piece of evidence that will keep Jerome Powell awake at night. Stubborn inflation has spurred the Fed to successively raise its estimate of the terminal rate in the past year. In December 2021, the dot plot showed a peak rate of 2.1%. By March this year, that estimate had climbed to 2.8%, which was subsequently lifted to 3.8% and then to 4.6% last month. If the labor market stays resilient in October and November and inflation doesn't slow, the dot plot may well shift upward again. All told, Treasury two-year notes have had a brutal year so far, with their yields surging about six-fold from around 0.75% at the end of last year. If inflation continues to be sticky, the Fed may yet revise its dot plot up, while yields surge past levels many young traders have never experienced.
Kakao Corp.’s co-Chief Executive Officer Whon Namkoong resigned after a widespread outage caused chaos in a nation heavily reliant on Korea’s most popular messaging and social media service.
Docent: 이 기사는 도슨트가 되어 알려주고 싶은 내용임. 유통시장에서 경쟁하는 투자자들은 상장 이전 시장에서의 조각과 같은 움직임을 더 잘 봐야 하기 때문임. 곡식이 잘 여물기 위해 비가 필요함. 기우제를 지낼 정도로 간절한 비를 가져다 주는 이를 'Rainmaker'라 부름. 싱가폴에서 열린 모임에서 언제나 그렇듯 잔뜩 비가 내릴 것으로 기대했지만, 한명의 투자자를 붙잡고자 열명의 매니저가 경쟁하는 듯한 느낌을 받았으며, 심지어 실제 투자자는 거의 보이지 않고 서로의 투자 아이디어를 보려는 의도의 경쟁자들끼리의 참석이 더 큰 비중이었음. 시장이 어려운 때에도 아시아 시장은 2017년에서 2021년까지 94%의 성장률로 5,540억 달라까지 운용자산 규모가 증가한 곳이며, 기존 투자에 재투자한 자금도 올해 86억 달러로 전년도 29억 달러 대비 증가했음. 다만, 2021년에서 2025년까지 운용자산 성장률은 43%로 탄력이 둔화 될 것으로 보이며, 자금 모집도 실질적으로는 금융환경이 극도로 악화되었을 때도 장기 투자자들이 자금을 집행할 수 있는 대형 사모펀드의 대표 매니저에게만 발생하고 있음. 중소형 규모는 지속적으로 자금 압박을 받으면서 기존 투자에 대한 더 높은 가치평가나 이익 실현이 점점 어려워질 것으로 예상되고, 대형 사모펀드도 차기 펀드 모집에서는 그 모집액 목표를 한참 낮춰 예상하고 있음.
Private Equity’s Rainmakers Struggle to Raise Cash in Asia. When private equity fund managers descended on Singapore for two weeks of conferences culminating in the Formula 1 Grand Prix, many were expecting it to rain money. The stage was set for pension funds, family offices and other institutional investors to deploy more of their record cash piles into the Asia-Pacific region — the world’s fastest-growing private equity market over the past decade — at some of the city’s first mask-free conferences since the pandemic. Instead, general partners found themselves surrounded by rivals hunting for investors who kept a low profile at gatherings like SuperReturn Asia. The ratio felt like it was 10 fund managers to one investor at one event, several participants said, while a family office executive added they’d been on both sides of the money for more than a decade and never seen such aggressive efforts to raise cash. Failing to attract fresh funds adds to challenges for the industry as slumping financial markets and valuations make it harder to exit investments. The crunch is most acute at smaller, newer firms trying to establish relationships with limited partners, while giants including KKR & Co. and Blackstone Inc. continue to lure money from long-standing investors even as China and other Asian economies slow. A glance at the historical numbers may suggest Asia is bucking a global private equity slowdown. Investors pumped $8.6 billion into “re-ups,” which refers to allocating more money to existing relationships, this year through Oct. 7, according to Bloomberg data — up from $2.9 billion a year earlier. Even new fund investments more than tripled to $1.6 billion over the period. But much of the funding is going to the big-name managers that are considered safer prospects in times of financial stress. Baring Private Equity Asia last month completed a $11.2 billion raising months after Chief Executive Officer Jean Eric Salata warned the industry faced a funding squeeze. For the broader industry, momentum is weakening. Total assets under management for Asia-Pacific private equity firms jumped by 94% between 2017 and 2021 to reach $554 billion, according to Preqin data. That’s now expected to grow by just 43% between 2021 and 2025 to hit $793 billion. “Middle-market managers tend to be the ones getting squeezed,” said Niklas Amundsson, partner at Monument Group Inc., a global private placement agent. “But even the major fund managers, which continue to do well, could see their funds in the next fund-raising cycle end up at much reduced targets.”. A private equity manager due to present their ideas to LPs at a closed-door event said most attendees were competitors keen to borrow investment ideas — few investors had actually shown up.
Private Equity’s Rainmakers Struggle to Raise Cash in Asia. When private equity fund managers descended on Singapore for two weeks of conferences culminating in the Formula 1 Grand Prix, many were expecting it to rain money. The stage was set for pension funds, family offices and other institutional investors to deploy more of their record cash piles into the Asia-Pacific region — the world’s fastest-growing private equity market over the past decade — at some of the city’s first mask-free conferences since the pandemic. Instead, general partners found themselves surrounded by rivals hunting for investors who kept a low profile at gatherings like SuperReturn Asia. The ratio felt like it was 10 fund managers to one investor at one event, several participants said, while a family office executive added they’d been on both sides of the money for more than a decade and never seen such aggressive efforts to raise cash. Failing to attract fresh funds adds to challenges for the industry as slumping financial markets and valuations make it harder to exit investments. The crunch is most acute at smaller, newer firms trying to establish relationships with limited partners, while giants including KKR & Co. and Blackstone Inc. continue to lure money from long-standing investors even as China and other Asian economies slow. A glance at the historical numbers may suggest Asia is bucking a global private equity slowdown. Investors pumped $8.6 billion into “re-ups,” which refers to allocating more money to existing relationships, this year through Oct. 7, according to Bloomberg data — up from $2.9 billion a year earlier. Even new fund investments more than tripled to $1.6 billion over the period. But much of the funding is going to the big-name managers that are considered safer prospects in times of financial stress. Baring Private Equity Asia last month completed a $11.2 billion raising months after Chief Executive Officer Jean Eric Salata warned the industry faced a funding squeeze. For the broader industry, momentum is weakening. Total assets under management for Asia-Pacific private equity firms jumped by 94% between 2017 and 2021 to reach $554 billion, according to Preqin data. That’s now expected to grow by just 43% between 2021 and 2025 to hit $793 billion. “Middle-market managers tend to be the ones getting squeezed,” said Niklas Amundsson, partner at Monument Group Inc., a global private placement agent. “But even the major fund managers, which continue to do well, could see their funds in the next fund-raising cycle end up at much reduced targets.”. A private equity manager due to present their ideas to LPs at a closed-door event said most attendees were competitors keen to borrow investment ideas — few investors had actually shown up.
2. 먼저, 자연실업률(u*)가 현재 4.4%로 추정되고 있으며, 이 실업률을 위한 최종 정책금리는 4.96%로 선물시장에서 책정되고 있습니다. 중앙은행은 2022년 자연실업률 4.4%, 2023년~2024년 4.3%, 2025년 4.0%로 추정하고 있지만, 특정 인사들은 자연 실업률이 5%~6%가 되어야 인플레이션이 목표에 이를 것으로 생각합니다.
3. 만일 자연 실업률이 5%에서 6%가 되어야 원하는 인플레이션 목표에 달성할 수 있다면, 필립스 곡선의 곡선은 검은색에서 우측의 빨간색으로 이동하게 됩니다. 세로 축의 같은 목표 물가를 가로축의 더 높은 실업률로 도달한다는 의미입니다. 만일 빨간색 곡선이라면 중앙은행의 최종금리는 4.96%가 아니라 6%가 됩니다.
4. 중앙은행의 긴축 주기의 종료 시점에서 미국 국채 2년물의 금리는 최종 정책금리보다 47bp 높은게 중앙값이며, 최소값도 정책금리보다 높습니다. 6%의 최종금리라면 2년물 국채 금리는 6.47%가 되어야 할 것입니다.
Docent: 연방공개시장위원회의 19명이 정책금리를 결정하지만, 이들의 생각에 강한 영향을 주는 이들이 중앙은행의 내부 직원들임. 10월 12일에 공개 된 내용은 겉으로 보기엔 전혀 해로울게 없어보임. 하지만 '잠재성장률'을 낮춘 것의 의미를 되새겨 볼 필요가 있음. 그리고 이것이 왜 아직까지 인플레이션이 여전히 높은 상태에 있으며, 왜 여전히 실업률이 낮은지를 이해하기 해주고, 나아가 중앙은행이 더 많은 금리인상을 해야 하는 이유를 줌. 의사록을 보면 미국의 잠재성장률에 대한 예상치가 상당히 하향 조정되었음. 잠재성장률은 인플레이션이나 통화긴축이 필요하지 않은 수준을 말하는데, 새로운 추정치가 공개되지도 이전의 추정치도 밝혀지지 않았지만, 이를 낮춘 것 자체가 정책적으로 상당한 의미를 가짐. 잠재성장률을 낮출수록 현재의 경제성장률이 너무나 '과열' 된 상태라는 해석으로 이어지며, 이것이 왜 높은 물가와 낮은 실업률의 상태에 머물러 있는지를 설명해줌. 하향 된 잠재성장률로 계산하면 2025년까지 실업률은 인플레이션을 일으키지 않을 수준보다 아래에 머무르는 과열 상태에 있을 것임. 그럼에도 불구하고 물가에 대해서는 내년 2.6%로 예상하는데, 이 부분에서는 중앙은행 직원들이 다소 낙관적 추정을 했다고 평가함. 즉, 에너지 가격이 하락하고 수요와 공급이 균형을 찾는다는 '낙관적 가정'이 들어갔기 때문임. 경제가 지금처럼 과열 된 상태로 머문다면 노동시장의 수요에 따른 임금 압력을 줄이기 위해 노동시장이 더 큰 폭으로 침체를 보일만큼 더 큰 폭으로, 또는 더 오랜 기간 정책금리를 올려야 할 수 있음.
US stocks halted a two-day rally, with Treasury yields hitting multiyear highs on Fed rate hike concerns. Earnings enthusiasm waned, helping push the S&P 500 down 0.7%. Ten-year yields jumped 12 bps to 4.13% while 2-years rose to the highest since 2007.