2. 먼저, 자연실업률(u*)가 현재 4.4%로 추정되고 있으며, 이 실업률을 위한 최종 정책금리는 4.96%로 선물시장에서 책정되고 있습니다. 중앙은행은 2022년 자연실업률 4.4%, 2023년~2024년 4.3%, 2025년 4.0%로 추정하고 있지만, 특정 인사들은 자연 실업률이 5%~6%가 되어야 인플레이션이 목표에 이를 것으로 생각합니다.
3. 만일 자연 실업률이 5%에서 6%가 되어야 원하는 인플레이션 목표에 달성할 수 있다면, 필립스 곡선의 곡선은 검은색에서 우측의 빨간색으로 이동하게 됩니다. 세로 축의 같은 목표 물가를 가로축의 더 높은 실업률로 도달한다는 의미입니다. 만일 빨간색 곡선이라면 중앙은행의 최종금리는 4.96%가 아니라 6%가 됩니다.
4. 중앙은행의 긴축 주기의 종료 시점에서 미국 국채 2년물의 금리는 최종 정책금리보다 47bp 높은게 중앙값이며, 최소값도 정책금리보다 높습니다. 6%의 최종금리라면 2년물 국채 금리는 6.47%가 되어야 할 것입니다.
Docent: 연방공개시장위원회의 19명이 정책금리를 결정하지만, 이들의 생각에 강한 영향을 주는 이들이 중앙은행의 내부 직원들임. 10월 12일에 공개 된 내용은 겉으로 보기엔 전혀 해로울게 없어보임. 하지만 '잠재성장률'을 낮춘 것의 의미를 되새겨 볼 필요가 있음. 그리고 이것이 왜 아직까지 인플레이션이 여전히 높은 상태에 있으며, 왜 여전히 실업률이 낮은지를 이해하기 해주고, 나아가 중앙은행이 더 많은 금리인상을 해야 하는 이유를 줌. 의사록을 보면 미국의 잠재성장률에 대한 예상치가 상당히 하향 조정되었음. 잠재성장률은 인플레이션이나 통화긴축이 필요하지 않은 수준을 말하는데, 새로운 추정치가 공개되지도 이전의 추정치도 밝혀지지 않았지만, 이를 낮춘 것 자체가 정책적으로 상당한 의미를 가짐. 잠재성장률을 낮출수록 현재의 경제성장률이 너무나 '과열' 된 상태라는 해석으로 이어지며, 이것이 왜 높은 물가와 낮은 실업률의 상태에 머물러 있는지를 설명해줌. 하향 된 잠재성장률로 계산하면 2025년까지 실업률은 인플레이션을 일으키지 않을 수준보다 아래에 머무르는 과열 상태에 있을 것임. 그럼에도 불구하고 물가에 대해서는 내년 2.6%로 예상하는데, 이 부분에서는 중앙은행 직원들이 다소 낙관적 추정을 했다고 평가함. 즉, 에너지 가격이 하락하고 수요와 공급이 균형을 찾는다는 '낙관적 가정'이 들어갔기 때문임. 경제가 지금처럼 과열 된 상태로 머문다면 노동시장의 수요에 따른 임금 압력을 줄이기 위해 노동시장이 더 큰 폭으로 침체를 보일만큼 더 큰 폭으로, 또는 더 오랜 기간 정책금리를 올려야 할 수 있음.
US stocks halted a two-day rally, with Treasury yields hitting multiyear highs on Fed rate hike concerns. Earnings enthusiasm waned, helping push the S&P 500 down 0.7%. Ten-year yields jumped 12 bps to 4.13% while 2-years rose to the highest since 2007.
Bottom-line: 미국 상장 중국 주식의 지수가 하루에 -7.1% 하락하며 9년래 최저치를 기록함. 지난 3월 중국이 강력한 시장 안정 조치를 발표 한 이후 상승폭을 모두 되돌린 것이며, 주요 구성 기업 다수가 하루 -10% 이상 하락함. 소비재 및 기술주 모두 부진의 늪에 빠진 이유는 4개월래 큰 폭 증가한 바이러스 환자, 그리고 전례없는 경제지표 발표 연기에 따른 우려였음.
Chinese stocks listed in the US tumbled Wednesday as concerns over the nation’s economic outlook and a rise of Covid cases in the middle of the twice-a-decade party congress weighed on investor sentiment. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index sank 7.1%, its steepest one-day decline since May 9, putting the gauge at its lowest closing level in more than nine years. The index has erased all its gains since mid-March, when Beijing announced a strong push to stabilize its markets. Nio Inc., Li Auto Inc., Xpeng Inc. and Bilibili Inc. were among the worst performers, each sliding more than 10%. Some of China’s largest tech companies listed in New York including Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., JD.com Inc. and Baidu Inc. also sank. Wednesday’s selloff came after shares listed in China and Hong Kong dropped amid a rout in consumer stocks and concerns about the region’s earnings outlook. Adding to the wall of worry for investors was the surge in Beijing’s Covid cases to the highest in four months and the government’s unprecedented silence on key economic indicators. The Hang Seng Tech Index slumped 4.2% overnight, to close near a record low level, as Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee’s policy speech disappointed some investors.
Chinese stocks listed in the US tumbled Wednesday as concerns over the nation’s economic outlook and a rise of Covid cases in the middle of the twice-a-decade party congress weighed on investor sentiment. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index sank 7.1%, its steepest one-day decline since May 9, putting the gauge at its lowest closing level in more than nine years. The index has erased all its gains since mid-March, when Beijing announced a strong push to stabilize its markets. Nio Inc., Li Auto Inc., Xpeng Inc. and Bilibili Inc. were among the worst performers, each sliding more than 10%. Some of China’s largest tech companies listed in New York including Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., JD.com Inc. and Baidu Inc. also sank. Wednesday’s selloff came after shares listed in China and Hong Kong dropped amid a rout in consumer stocks and concerns about the region’s earnings outlook. Adding to the wall of worry for investors was the surge in Beijing’s Covid cases to the highest in four months and the government’s unprecedented silence on key economic indicators. The Hang Seng Tech Index slumped 4.2% overnight, to close near a record low level, as Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee’s policy speech disappointed some investors.
Bottom-line: 제임스 블라드는 인플레이션이 진정된다면 내년 초에 공격적인 금리인상이 마무리 될 수 있다고 답변함. 하지만, 이 답변의 세부적인 내용을 살펴보면 인플레이션이 진정될 경우를 가정한 것임. 그는 중앙은행이 끝없이 금리를 인상할 순 없고, 다만 의미있는 인플레이션 하락의 데이터가 보이는 수준까지 금리인상을 빠르고 더 높게 할 수 있다는 여지를 남김.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said he expects the central bank to end its ‘’front-loading” of aggressive interest-rate hikes by early next year and shift to keeping policy sufficiently restrictive with small adjustments as inflation cools. “You do have to think about what the reasonable level is,” Bullard said Wednesday in a Bloomberg TV interview with Kathleen Hays in St. Louis, suggesting that he doesn’t currently see the need to push rates higher than officials have already projected. The goal is to move to “some meaningfully restrictive level” that will push inflation down.“. But it doesn’t mean that you go up forever,” he said. “In 2023 I think we’ll be closer to the point where we can run what I would call ordinary monetary policy,” he said. “Now you’re at the right level of the policy rate, you’re putting downward pressure on inflation, but you can adjust as the data come in in 2023.”. Bullard said the November meeting result “has been more or less priced in to markets” for a 75 basis-point hike, though he’d prefer to wait until the meeting to decide his preference for the size of the move.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said he expects the central bank to end its ‘’front-loading” of aggressive interest-rate hikes by early next year and shift to keeping policy sufficiently restrictive with small adjustments as inflation cools. “You do have to think about what the reasonable level is,” Bullard said Wednesday in a Bloomberg TV interview with Kathleen Hays in St. Louis, suggesting that he doesn’t currently see the need to push rates higher than officials have already projected. The goal is to move to “some meaningfully restrictive level” that will push inflation down.“. But it doesn’t mean that you go up forever,” he said. “In 2023 I think we’ll be closer to the point where we can run what I would call ordinary monetary policy,” he said. “Now you’re at the right level of the policy rate, you’re putting downward pressure on inflation, but you can adjust as the data come in in 2023.”. Bullard said the November meeting result “has been more or less priced in to markets” for a 75 basis-point hike, though he’d prefer to wait until the meeting to decide his preference for the size of the move.
Bottom-line: 높아진 변동성 덕분에 밀레니엄 자산운용과 같이 하나의 펀드 기준가가 다수의 다른 전략을 사용하는 펀드 매니저들에 의해 구성되는, 소위 멀티 매니저 펀드가 좋은 성과를 거두고 있음. 83조원 상당의 자산을 운용 중인 동사는 올해 9월까지 9.7%의 수익을 거두며 미국 지수의 -22% 하락과 대조적이었음. 미국 지수의 옵션을 기초자산으로 산정되는 변동성 지수가 전년 대비 79% 상승함에 따라 두 해에 걸쳐 얻을 수익을 한 해에 얻었다고 함. 거대한 자금을 운용하기 위해 회사는 i) 운용자산, ii) 공정한 보상, iii) 활용할 수 있는 자원, iv) 자율성을 보장하는 대신에 과거와 달리 펀드 매니저에게 투자자들과의 관계가 어떤지, 자산을 어떻게 확장 시키는지 등의 요구도 늘어났음.
A high volatility environment is great for multi-manager firms like Millennium Management LLC, according to Bobby Jain, co-chief investment officer one of the world’s largest hedge funds. In times of volatility, “you can get two years worth of trading in one year,” Jain said at the Capitalize for Kids Investors Conference in Toronto on Wednesday. Millennium manages more than $58 billion and its flagship fund gained 9.7% this year through September, while the S&P 500 Index has tumbled 22%. The firm has done it in an environment of rising market turbulence: the Cboe Volatility Index, a gauge of market-wide fear, is up nearly 79% this year. Asked about the impact of the pandemic on investment firms, Jain said one of the biggest changes has been more staff wanting to work from home. “Our business has internationalized dramatically in the last two-and-a-half years” as people moved to be closer to their families, he said, adding that it also presented a new challenge as the firm sorted out regulatory relationships when working out of new countries. This year, Millennium expanded its emerging markets team in Dubai and is opening two new outposts in tax-friendly Florida. In the war for talent, Jain said portfolio managers have become more sophisticated when they consider new roles. Now they’re not just asking how much capital they can manage, he said. They also want to know what the terms of the capital are, how stable the cash is, what the relationship with investors is like and what the process is to scale assets. They also value strong risk-management and execution technology and autonomy -- including the right to hire teams as they like. “So we offer those four things,” Jain said referring to assets, fair compensation, resources and autonomy. Millennium will be returning $15 billion to investors at the end of this year as it continues to bring in longer-term client capital -- a move it has been making for some years. The effort is part of the firm’s view that more stable capital is a key tool in attracting and retaining talent.
A high volatility environment is great for multi-manager firms like Millennium Management LLC, according to Bobby Jain, co-chief investment officer one of the world’s largest hedge funds. In times of volatility, “you can get two years worth of trading in one year,” Jain said at the Capitalize for Kids Investors Conference in Toronto on Wednesday. Millennium manages more than $58 billion and its flagship fund gained 9.7% this year through September, while the S&P 500 Index has tumbled 22%. The firm has done it in an environment of rising market turbulence: the Cboe Volatility Index, a gauge of market-wide fear, is up nearly 79% this year. Asked about the impact of the pandemic on investment firms, Jain said one of the biggest changes has been more staff wanting to work from home. “Our business has internationalized dramatically in the last two-and-a-half years” as people moved to be closer to their families, he said, adding that it also presented a new challenge as the firm sorted out regulatory relationships when working out of new countries. This year, Millennium expanded its emerging markets team in Dubai and is opening two new outposts in tax-friendly Florida. In the war for talent, Jain said portfolio managers have become more sophisticated when they consider new roles. Now they’re not just asking how much capital they can manage, he said. They also want to know what the terms of the capital are, how stable the cash is, what the relationship with investors is like and what the process is to scale assets. They also value strong risk-management and execution technology and autonomy -- including the right to hire teams as they like. “So we offer those four things,” Jain said referring to assets, fair compensation, resources and autonomy. Millennium will be returning $15 billion to investors at the end of this year as it continues to bring in longer-term client capital -- a move it has been making for some years. The effort is part of the firm’s view that more stable capital is a key tool in attracting and retaining talent.
Bottom-line: 전광석화.
China Stock Bounce Is Short-Lived on News of Quarantine Debate.
China Stock Bounce Is Short-Lived on News of Quarantine Debate.
Bottom-line: Ding Ding Ding! 150 Dollar-Yen.
USD/JPY has reached 150 for the first time since 1990 and traders will be looking for Japanese authorities to support the yen with direct or stealth intervention.
USD/JPY has reached 150 for the first time since 1990 and traders will be looking for Japanese authorities to support the yen with direct or stealth intervention.
Bottom-line: 영국 부채연계투자(LDI)의 타격이 슈로더를 통해 일부 확인됨. 영국 최대 규모의 독립 운용사의 운용자산이 3분기 동안 33조 6,000억원 감소했는데, 부채연계투자를 담당하는 솔루션 사업부에서 대부분 빚어진 것으로 보임. 파생상품을 활용해 연기금이 자산과 부채를 일치시키는데 사용하는 부채연계투자는 지난 10년 간 4배 가까이 성장해 2020년 기준 2,565조원에 이르는 시장 규모임. 회사는 답변을 거부했으나 운용자산 손실의 대부분은 9월 23일 리즈 트러스 총리로부터 빚어진 혼란에 기인한 것으로 보임.
Schroders Plc saw its assets under management drop by £21 billion in the third quarter after the UK pension fund crisis engulfed the industry. The UK’s largest standalone asset manager said assets dropped to £752.4 billion from £773.4 billion in the three months through September, according to a statement Thursday. More than £20 billion of the decline came from the firm’s Solutions business, which houses its so-called liability-driven investment strategies. Schroders is one of several asset managers to offer LDI investment strategies that typically use derivatives to help pension funds match their assets with their liabilities. It is a £1.6 trillion market, which has almost quadrupled in the 10 years through 2020, according to the UK’s Investment Association.
A spokesperson for the firm declined to comment. The results only capture a week of the turmoil that rippled through markets after the announcement on Sept. 23 by the government of new Prime Minister Liz Truss of unfunded tax cuts and increased state spending.
Schroders Plc saw its assets under management drop by £21 billion in the third quarter after the UK pension fund crisis engulfed the industry. The UK’s largest standalone asset manager said assets dropped to £752.4 billion from £773.4 billion in the three months through September, according to a statement Thursday. More than £20 billion of the decline came from the firm’s Solutions business, which houses its so-called liability-driven investment strategies. Schroders is one of several asset managers to offer LDI investment strategies that typically use derivatives to help pension funds match their assets with their liabilities. It is a £1.6 trillion market, which has almost quadrupled in the 10 years through 2020, according to the UK’s Investment Association.
A spokesperson for the firm declined to comment. The results only capture a week of the turmoil that rippled through markets after the announcement on Sept. 23 by the government of new Prime Minister Liz Truss of unfunded tax cuts and increased state spending.
Bottom-line: 지도자 투표를 담당하는 1922 위원회의 브래디 위원장을 리즈 트러스 총리가 만날 예정임.
Truss Meets With UK Tory Official in Charge of Leadership Votes. UK Prime Minister Liz Truss is meeting Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Committee in Downing Street, Truss’s office says in an emailed statement.
Truss Meets With UK Tory Official in Charge of Leadership Votes. UK Prime Minister Liz Truss is meeting Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Committee in Downing Street, Truss’s office says in an emailed statement.
Bottom-line: 누가 후임이 될지에 대한 베팅 상태며, 보수당 위원들에 의하면 리즈 트러스에 대한 정리가 생각보다 빨리 될 수도 있다고 함. 물론, 후임을 누구로 해야 하는지에 대한 문제가 있음.
Several Tory MPs have told me this morning that things are moving very quickly against Liz Truss now. They previously thought she had bought herself enough time to get to the end of the month, but yesterday’s departure of Braverman and the chaos of the fracking vote means she could depart this week. Tricky thing is, many MPs still don’t know who’s the best person to replace her.
Several Tory MPs have told me this morning that things are moving very quickly against Liz Truss now. They previously thought she had bought herself enough time to get to the end of the month, but yesterday’s departure of Braverman and the chaos of the fracking vote means she could depart this week. Tricky thing is, many MPs still don’t know who’s the best person to replace her.