Bottom-line: 골드만삭스와 모건스탠리는 헤지펀드의 프라임 브로커리지 서비스를 담당하는 최대 규모의 증권사임. 이들이 집계한 데이터에 따르면 헤지펀드는 매도(Short selling) 비중을 초과하는 매수(Long) 비중이 이례적으로 낮아진 상태라 함. 이 비율은 위험선호의 척도로 사용될 수 있으며, 헤지펀드들은 본인들의 포지션을 줄일 수 밖에 없는 한계 수준에 도달하지 않기 위해 먼저 방어적 태세를 갖추고 있는 것으로 해석함. 이런 투자자들은 중앙은행이 지속적으로 긴축적 태도를 취함에 따른 매도 방향의 유동성 쏠림을 우려하고 있음.
Hedge Funds have cut portfolio leverage this year in a conservative turn that has sucked borrowed money from global markets, adding selling pressure to stocks and bonds. Net leverage, a measure of industry risk appetite that takes into account long versus short positions, has fallen almost 20 percentage points to a year low of 66%, according to data earlier this month from Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s prime brokerage. Separate figures from Morgan Stanley’s prime brokerage show a similar decline to 41% among US long-short equity hedge funds, a level reached on only a small number of occasions over the past decade. The data, which was seen by Bloomberg News, provides one of the broadest snapshots of the sector. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have the world’s two largest prime brokerages, serving around 5,000 hedge funds each, according to the latest ranking by Convergence, a research provider. Prime brokerage executives from two other global investment banks said the drop in leverage was driven by defensive positioning among funds as interest rates have climbed and markets have fallen. They declined to be named discussing private matters. Hedge funds want to “make sure they are not getting too close to levels that would force them to sell,” said Charles Lemonides, chief investment officer of Valueworks, a New York Hedge fund. “A further market decline is going to stress that at some point. With every month that the Fed says they’ll get tighter and tighter, you resolve yourself to the fact we may enter one of those big liquidity-driven sell offs,” he said.
Hedge Funds have cut portfolio leverage this year in a conservative turn that has sucked borrowed money from global markets, adding selling pressure to stocks and bonds. Net leverage, a measure of industry risk appetite that takes into account long versus short positions, has fallen almost 20 percentage points to a year low of 66%, according to data earlier this month from Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s prime brokerage. Separate figures from Morgan Stanley’s prime brokerage show a similar decline to 41% among US long-short equity hedge funds, a level reached on only a small number of occasions over the past decade. The data, which was seen by Bloomberg News, provides one of the broadest snapshots of the sector. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have the world’s two largest prime brokerages, serving around 5,000 hedge funds each, according to the latest ranking by Convergence, a research provider. Prime brokerage executives from two other global investment banks said the drop in leverage was driven by defensive positioning among funds as interest rates have climbed and markets have fallen. They declined to be named discussing private matters. Hedge funds want to “make sure they are not getting too close to levels that would force them to sell,” said Charles Lemonides, chief investment officer of Valueworks, a New York Hedge fund. “A further market decline is going to stress that at some point. With every month that the Fed says they’ll get tighter and tighter, you resolve yourself to the fact we may enter one of those big liquidity-driven sell offs,” he said.
Bottom-line: 부도위험에 대한 보험 비용이라 할 수 있는 CDS 스프레드가 전세계적으로 높아지는 가운데, 특히 아시아 지역이 두드러짐. 일본을 제외 한 아시아 지역의 투자등급 채권에 대한 CDS 스프레드가 2011년 이후 최고치를 기록함. 중국의 시진핑이 유례없는 세번째 집권을 함에 따른 위험과 미국 중앙은행의 긴축적 태도가 달러를 강세로 몰아세움에 따른 아시아 내 달러 채무자의 부담이 동시에 커지고 있기 때문임.
The cost of insuring against debt defaults in Asia has surpassed pandemic highs as dual risks from China and the Fed’s aggressive tightening weigh on investor sentiment. A gauge of investment-grade Asia credit default swaps (ex-Japan) widened recently as traders assessed the implications of Chinese President Xi’s precedent-breaking third term. Fears that the country would continue to uphold its strict Covid policy led to a dramatic selloff of regional stocks this week, where some indexes slumped the most since the 2008 financial crisis. The CDS gauge jumped to the highest since 2011. The stress in Asian credit markets is also another sign of fears about the health of the global economy as the Fed presses on with aggressive efforts to contain inflation while the dollar remains high. While CDS spreads have widened globally, Asia’s have been more pronounced than in Europe and the US, which highlights the risks borrowers face in the region as their currencies face a strong dollar.
The cost of insuring against debt defaults in Asia has surpassed pandemic highs as dual risks from China and the Fed’s aggressive tightening weigh on investor sentiment. A gauge of investment-grade Asia credit default swaps (ex-Japan) widened recently as traders assessed the implications of Chinese President Xi’s precedent-breaking third term. Fears that the country would continue to uphold its strict Covid policy led to a dramatic selloff of regional stocks this week, where some indexes slumped the most since the 2008 financial crisis. The CDS gauge jumped to the highest since 2011. The stress in Asian credit markets is also another sign of fears about the health of the global economy as the Fed presses on with aggressive efforts to contain inflation while the dollar remains high. While CDS spreads have widened globally, Asia’s have been more pronounced than in Europe and the US, which highlights the risks borrowers face in the region as their currencies face a strong dollar.
Bottom-line: 중앙은행은 당신이 더욱 가난하다 느끼길 원하고 있음. 40년만의 최고치에 이르는 인플레이션에도 불구하고 S&P 500 지수는 10월 소비자물가지표 발표 이후 저점에서 5% 가량 상승함. 투자자들은 중앙은행의 긴축적 태도가 선회할 것에 희망을 걸고 이런 상승세를 반가워하고 있지만, 오히려 중앙은행이 원하는 바와 반대의 길이라는 것을 알아야 함. 주식시장의 하락에 의한 자산 축소로 인한 소비 감소가 중앙은행이 원하는 인플레이션 하락의 한 방법이며, 이는 소위 행동경제학에서 말하는 역 부의 효과임. 높은 인플레이션과 긴축적 통화정책이 지수를 -20% 가량 하락시키며 일반 소비재부터 고가의 주택에 이르기까지 소비 심리를 냉각시켰기 때문임.
US stocks extended their gains for the third day Tuesday with the S&P 500 climbing 1.7% as investors shifted their focus to the next batch of earnings and away from the numerous geopolitical risks. It’s now regained 5% since the low set soon after the release of the latest CPI data on Oct. 13. Such a move upward is generally celebrated by traders — but they should know that stocks’ gains are robbing the Fed of the wealth effect it needs before it can pivot toward lower rates. Why? Because stock market weakness is precisely what Doug Ramsey of The Leuthold Group said could be the key to cooling inflation. The Fed’s hope, he said, lies in a behavioral economic theory called reverse wealth effect, in which consumers spend less as their wealth decreases. That should lead consumers to buy less stuff, particularly on big-ticket items like homes. And that should either prevent or at least slow the much-feared inflationary spiral. Inflation, now at four-decade highs, and the monetary policy reaction to it has helped push the S&P 500 down by nearly 20% this year. And consumers do feel less wealthy. US consumer confidence fell more than expected to a three-month low in October, with the Conference Board index slipping to 102.5 from 107.8. The pullback reinforced the pessimistic outlook Americans have toward the economy as the prices of goods and services surge. Same goes for the US housing market, which saw a sudden reversal, effectively sapping demand and pushing prices lower by the most in any month since 2009.
US stocks extended their gains for the third day Tuesday with the S&P 500 climbing 1.7% as investors shifted their focus to the next batch of earnings and away from the numerous geopolitical risks. It’s now regained 5% since the low set soon after the release of the latest CPI data on Oct. 13. Such a move upward is generally celebrated by traders — but they should know that stocks’ gains are robbing the Fed of the wealth effect it needs before it can pivot toward lower rates. Why? Because stock market weakness is precisely what Doug Ramsey of The Leuthold Group said could be the key to cooling inflation. The Fed’s hope, he said, lies in a behavioral economic theory called reverse wealth effect, in which consumers spend less as their wealth decreases. That should lead consumers to buy less stuff, particularly on big-ticket items like homes. And that should either prevent or at least slow the much-feared inflationary spiral. Inflation, now at four-decade highs, and the monetary policy reaction to it has helped push the S&P 500 down by nearly 20% this year. And consumers do feel less wealthy. US consumer confidence fell more than expected to a three-month low in October, with the Conference Board index slipping to 102.5 from 107.8. The pullback reinforced the pessimistic outlook Americans have toward the economy as the prices of goods and services surge. Same goes for the US housing market, which saw a sudden reversal, effectively sapping demand and pushing prices lower by the most in any month since 2009.
Bottom-line: 주식시장 폭풍 속에 피난처로 투자자들은 배당을 선택하고 있음. 배당 관련 상장지수펀드로 지난 해 유입 된 자금의 총 규모보다 25% 더 유입되고 있으며, 투자자들은 배당 지급이 높은 주식들이 전반적인 포트폴리오 손실을 완충해주길 바라고 있음. 내년도 고정적 이자수익을 위해 국채를 살지 고배당 주식을 살지 물음에 주식을 선택하겠다는 답변도 있었음. 비트코인이나 물가연동채 상장지수펀드가 인플레이션 방어에 그다지 효과적이지 못함에 따라 고배당 주식으로 수요가 몰리고 있으며, 인플레이션이 5% 이상이었던 시기에 S&P 500 지수의 총수익률 중 절반 이상이 배당에서 발생했다는 발견도 있음.
In these tumultuous times on Wall Street, at least one investing trend is proving remarkably consistent: Dividend ETFs are notching relentless inflows as traders take refuge in the stock-market storm. The record $50 billion allocation bonanza so far this year is notable in a world where even cash-like Treasuries are offering income-hungry investors the highest yields in over a decade -- giving defensive strategies like dividend funds a run for their money. At least in theory. Yet demand for steady income in stocks is booming as money managers bid up companies with a history of paying out profits to shareholders, hoping that will cushion gut-wrenching losses across the broader market. All told, the cash flowing into dividend-focused exchange-traded funds is already running 25% higher than the record haul secured in 2021, with positive inflows every month so far this year. “We think dividend paying stocks are a little bit more resilient in rocky economic times,” said Kara Murphy, CIO of Austin, Texas-based Kestra Investment Management, when asked if she’d rather buy a Treasury bond or dividend-stock for income over the next year. “We actually think they’re pretty attractive right here.”. As assets like Bitcoin and inflation-hedging ETFs struggle to live up to their billing of protecting from price growth, dividend strategies have history on their side, according to Fidelity. The money manager found that in decades when inflation was above 5%, dividends have powered more than half of the S&P 500’s total return.
In these tumultuous times on Wall Street, at least one investing trend is proving remarkably consistent: Dividend ETFs are notching relentless inflows as traders take refuge in the stock-market storm. The record $50 billion allocation bonanza so far this year is notable in a world where even cash-like Treasuries are offering income-hungry investors the highest yields in over a decade -- giving defensive strategies like dividend funds a run for their money. At least in theory. Yet demand for steady income in stocks is booming as money managers bid up companies with a history of paying out profits to shareholders, hoping that will cushion gut-wrenching losses across the broader market. All told, the cash flowing into dividend-focused exchange-traded funds is already running 25% higher than the record haul secured in 2021, with positive inflows every month so far this year. “We think dividend paying stocks are a little bit more resilient in rocky economic times,” said Kara Murphy, CIO of Austin, Texas-based Kestra Investment Management, when asked if she’d rather buy a Treasury bond or dividend-stock for income over the next year. “We actually think they’re pretty attractive right here.”. As assets like Bitcoin and inflation-hedging ETFs struggle to live up to their billing of protecting from price growth, dividend strategies have history on their side, according to Fidelity. The money manager found that in decades when inflation was above 5%, dividends have powered more than half of the S&P 500’s total return.
Bottom-line: 금리에 대한 베팅이 하락으로 뒤집히며 그간 쌓여있던 매도 포지션이 각각의 만기에 걸쳐 청산되는 움직임이 보임. 이는 향후 추가적인 금리 하락으로 인한 매도 포지션 청산 증가 가능성을 높이고 있으며, 10년물 국채의 경우 90억 달러 규모의 신규 매수 계약이 유입 됨. 제이피모건에서 채권 거래 고객을 대상으로 한 설문에서는 채권 매수 응답이 2년래 최고치를 기록함. 옵션 시장에서도 한달 내 10년물 금리가 3.8%에 도달할 것에 행사가가 걸친 계약이 쇄도했음.
A short squeeze is underway in front-end rates as pricing for Federal Reserve policy hikes starts to erode. Tuesday’s rally in December 2022 eurodollar futures was met with a drop of contracts in the tenor, equivalent to around $8 billion’s worth of the current two-year Treasury cash note. That suggests a heavy amount of short positions were being liquidated into the advance. Open interest also dropped across the December 2022, March 2023 and June 2023 contracts tied to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate, according to CME Group data. Into Tuesday’s richening, “the shorts side is clearly being squeezed with more than 30% of recent shorts offside in EGBs and 15% of shorts underwater in USTs,” Citigroup Inc. strategists Ed Acton and Bill O’Donnell wrote of the US and European bond markets. “There is clearly fuel for a further squeeze.”. Further out the curve, evidence of new long positions are emerging. Almost 95,000 contracts of new risk were added in 10-year note futures on Tuesday, equivalent to approximately $9 billion worth of the current cash 10-year Treasury. JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s latest Treasury client survey shows the biggest net long position in two years. The bullish sentiment for lower yields is also being matched in the options market, where Wednesday’s session saw a flood of plays targeting a 10-year yield drop to 3.80% within a month.
A short squeeze is underway in front-end rates as pricing for Federal Reserve policy hikes starts to erode. Tuesday’s rally in December 2022 eurodollar futures was met with a drop of contracts in the tenor, equivalent to around $8 billion’s worth of the current two-year Treasury cash note. That suggests a heavy amount of short positions were being liquidated into the advance. Open interest also dropped across the December 2022, March 2023 and June 2023 contracts tied to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate, according to CME Group data. Into Tuesday’s richening, “the shorts side is clearly being squeezed with more than 30% of recent shorts offside in EGBs and 15% of shorts underwater in USTs,” Citigroup Inc. strategists Ed Acton and Bill O’Donnell wrote of the US and European bond markets. “There is clearly fuel for a further squeeze.”. Further out the curve, evidence of new long positions are emerging. Almost 95,000 contracts of new risk were added in 10-year note futures on Tuesday, equivalent to approximately $9 billion worth of the current cash 10-year Treasury. JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s latest Treasury client survey shows the biggest net long position in two years. The bullish sentiment for lower yields is also being matched in the options market, where Wednesday’s session saw a flood of plays targeting a 10-year yield drop to 3.80% within a month.
Bottom-line: 2년이 넘는 기간 동안 50일 이동평균선은 리트머스 시험지와 같은 역할을 함. 지수가 이 이동평균선 위에 있을 땐 저가 매수가 유효한 전략이었고, 반대의 경우 고가 매도가 유효한 전략이었음.
Price action in the S&P 500 Index is likely to be choppy until a decisive direction is made around the 50-day moving average. For more than two years, moves in the S&P 500 above or below that key moving mean have tended to be a guidepost. In 2020 and and 2021, prices above it were bullish and declines toward the rolling average drew dip buying. This year’s slip below brought the opposite, resulting in selling as the benchmark rose toward the average.
Price action in the S&P 500 Index is likely to be choppy until a decisive direction is made around the 50-day moving average. For more than two years, moves in the S&P 500 above or below that key moving mean have tended to be a guidepost. In 2020 and and 2021, prices above it were bullish and declines toward the rolling average drew dip buying. This year’s slip below brought the opposite, resulting in selling as the benchmark rose toward the average.
Samsung 3Q Oper Profit 10.85T Won, Est. 12.05T Won. 3Q Sales 76.78T Won, Est. 78.04T Won. 3Q Cons. Net 9.14T Won, Est. 9.43T Won.
Wow, Consumer electronics operating profit was 250 billion won, estimates had it at 444.5 billion won.
3Q chip sales of 23 trillion won are far below 35.2 trillion won estimates. Not good.
A strong dollar helped Samsung’s operating profit by a measure of 1 trillion won versus 2Q.
Bottom-line: 수요 회복은 내년 하반기로 예상하나 거시적 환경을 지속 살펴야 할 것임.
Samsung expects memory demand to improve only from the second half of 2023, propped up by servers and mobile phones but also the migration to more advanced DDR5 for newer PCs. But one caveat: “Impacts of the macro economy on demand require monitoring.”
Samsung expects memory demand to improve only from the second half of 2023, propped up by servers and mobile phones but also the migration to more advanced DDR5 for newer PCs. But one caveat: “Impacts of the macro economy on demand require monitoring.”
Bottom-line: 하이닉스처럼 과격한 표현을 사용하지 않아 덜 우울한 이야기로 들림.
Samsung’s comments about the chip downturn aren’t quite as bleak as Hynix’s (which said it was “unprecedented”). Samsung described it this way:
“Earnings in the Memory Business declined as inventory adjustments of customers exceeded market expectations and demand for consumer products remained weak.”
Samsung’s comments about the chip downturn aren’t quite as bleak as Hynix’s (which said it was “unprecedented”). Samsung described it this way:
“Earnings in the Memory Business declined as inventory adjustments of customers exceeded market expectations and demand for consumer products remained weak.”