Bottom-line: 최근 중앙은행을 압박했던 민주당은 이 문구를 통해 본인들의 요구를 수용했다 생각할 수도 있음. 연설을 두고 보겠음.
Democratic lawmakers, some of whom have lately been pressing the Fed to consider the damage of going too aggressively, might in particular appreciate the statement’s recognition of lagged effects. They might even point to the Fed as having listened. We’ll see.
Democratic lawmakers, some of whom have lately been pressing the Fed to consider the damage of going too aggressively, might in particular appreciate the statement’s recognition of lagged effects. They might even point to the Fed as having listened. We’ll see.
• Job gains have been robust, with wage gains high and job vacancies still high. The labor market remains “out of balance,” he says.
고용시장이 여전히 균형을 벗어나 있다고 발언함.
고용시장이 여전히 균형을 벗어나 있다고 발언함.
• Powell’s comment that “the labor market continues to be out of balance, with demand substantially exceeding the supply of available workers” reinforces the notion that the Fed is looking at both employment and inflation as giving it plenty of reasons to keep tightening.
이는 중앙은행이 지속 긴축해야 할 근거를 제시하고 있다 발언함.
이는 중앙은행이 지속 긴축해야 할 근거를 제시하고 있다 발언함.
• Powell says “at some point” it will become “appropriate to slow the pace of increases.” But there is “significant uncertainty” around that end-point.
언젠가 긴축의 속도를 늦춰야 하며, 중앙은행의 두 책무가 그렇다. 하지만 시점에 대해서는 상당한 불확실성이 있다 발언함.
언젠가 긴축의 속도를 늦춰야 하며, 중앙은행의 두 책무가 그렇다. 하지만 시점에 대해서는 상당한 불확실성이 있다 발언함.
• Powell says “it’s been very important” to move “expeditiously.” It has been an “historically fast” pace, which was appropriate.
금리인상을 매우 신속하게 했던 것은 적절했다 생각한다 말함.
금리인상을 매우 신속하게 했던 것은 적절했다 생각한다 말함.
• Powell says he doesn’t think the Fed has “overtightened or moved to fast” at this point.
과도하거나 너무 빠른 긴축을 하고 있다 생각하지 않는다 발언함.
과도하거나 너무 빠른 긴축을 하고 있다 생각하지 않는다 발언함.
• Powell says there’s no one specific underlying inflation rate gauge the Fed looks at. There are a number of different measures.
인플레이션 평가는 단순한 척도가 없으며, 다양한 기준을 사용할 것이라 함.
인플레이션 평가는 단순한 척도가 없으며, 다양한 기준을 사용할 것이라 함.
• Powell says there’s no scientific way of assessing that. But, he notes, longer-term inflation expectations signal stability. Shorter-term expectations are “concerning.”
인플레이션에 대한 질문에 그는 단기에 대해서는 불확실하며, 장기적인 인플레이션과 다르게 생각함.
인플레이션에 대한 질문에 그는 단기에 대해서는 불확실하며, 장기적인 인플레이션과 다르게 생각함.
• We’re 18 months into this episode of inflation, Powell says. The thing the Fed needs to do is use its tools forcefully but thoughtfully.
인플레이션 통제를 관찰하는 기간은 시장 예상보다 훨씬 길다고 말함.
인플레이션 통제를 관찰하는 기간은 시장 예상보다 훨씬 길다고 말함.
• It is very premature to think about pausing rate hikes.
금리인상을 멈추는 것은 시기상조라 말함.
금리인상을 멈추는 것은 시기상조라 말함.
Docent: 연설 중에 우리가 한 가지 기억해야 할 부분이 있는데, 트럼프 대통령 때 중앙은행에 대한 금리인하 압박이 최근 민주당 의원의 압박과 겹쳐 시장 참여자들에게 기대를 줌. 때문에 연설 중에 원자재나 에너지 가격에 영향을 주는 통화정책을 통해 수요와 공급의 불균형에 의한 인플레이션을 해소하겠다고 함. 즉, 민주당 의원이 통화정책의 무용론을 통해 금리인상을 중단하라는 간섭에 대해 분명히 선을 그었음. 중앙은행의 독립성을 침해할 경우 그 역풍은 되려 자신들의 독립성을 강조하기 위해 더 강한 긴축을 하게 될 것이란 분석도 이미 있었음.
There’s an imbalance between demand and supply in “many parts of the economy,” Powell says. That’s something the Fed can affect, he says. The background here is some Democratic lawmakers have been flagging that the Fed cannot directly affect commodity or energy prices. Powell is saying that, at a bigger level, there’s an imbalance between supply and demand. And the Fed can affect demand by raising interest rates.
There’s an imbalance between demand and supply in “many parts of the economy,” Powell says. That’s something the Fed can affect, he says. The background here is some Democratic lawmakers have been flagging that the Fed cannot directly affect commodity or energy prices. Powell is saying that, at a bigger level, there’s an imbalance between supply and demand. And the Fed can affect demand by raising interest rates.
“This is a devil’s bargain,”
said Steve Chiavarone, senior portfolio manager at Federated Hermes. “Size of rate hikes will likely fall, but terminal rate is likely higher -- the implication is a greater number of smaller rate hikes. That is not dovish.”
said Steve Chiavarone, senior portfolio manager at Federated Hermes. “Size of rate hikes will likely fall, but terminal rate is likely higher -- the implication is a greater number of smaller rate hikes. That is not dovish.”
Bottom-line: 중국은 바이러스 확산 억제를 위한 정책을 강경하게 유지할 것이라 공식적으로 발표함.
China’s top health body said the nation’s zero-tolerance approach remains the overall strategy to fighting Covid-19 after unverified social media posts buoyed hopes the policy would be eased. The National Health Commission convened a meeting hosted by party chief Ma Xiaowei on Wednesday to study the messages delivered during the party congress held last month. Ma said that officials must be committed to Covid Zero and the work of controlling the virus, according to a statement from the commission. “We must resolutely maintain the general approach of ‘preventing imported cases and domestic resurgence’ and the overall strategy of ‘dynamic Covid Zero’,” Ma said in the meeting, according to the statement.
China’s top health body said the nation’s zero-tolerance approach remains the overall strategy to fighting Covid-19 after unverified social media posts buoyed hopes the policy would be eased. The National Health Commission convened a meeting hosted by party chief Ma Xiaowei on Wednesday to study the messages delivered during the party congress held last month. Ma said that officials must be committed to Covid Zero and the work of controlling the virus, according to a statement from the commission. “We must resolutely maintain the general approach of ‘preventing imported cases and domestic resurgence’ and the overall strategy of ‘dynamic Covid Zero’,” Ma said in the meeting, according to the statement.
Bottom-line: 투자자들이 여전히 중앙은행의 정책선회를 기대하고, 또한 주가가 그에 맞춰 상승할 수 있음. 중앙은행은 그럴수록 강경한 발언을 통해 주가를 하락시키고자 할 것임. 결국 언젠가 최종 정책금리에 도달하고, 또 다시 금리를 인하할 수도 있지만, 그것은 이번 통화정책회의에서 발언 한 오랜 시간의 데이터에 의존할 것임. 투자자들은 계속해서 돈을 잃는 선회에 대한 상상을 멈춰야 할 것임.
If stock investors want to front-run a dovish pivot, they’re welcome to do so, but all they will do is provoke more aggressively hawkish rhetoric to push share prices down again. So they’ll lose money, as many did on Wednesday, after the Fed and Chair Jerome Powell made it clear that even if rates rise more slowly in the future, the peak could be higher than anticipated. The time will come when the Fed slows down, pauses, and eventually pivots toward lower rates. But it’s the incoming economic data that will determine that, and so it’s the data that everyone will have to watch, starting with US payrolls this Friday. Investors Need to Stop Imagining Pivots That Lose Them Money.
If stock investors want to front-run a dovish pivot, they’re welcome to do so, but all they will do is provoke more aggressively hawkish rhetoric to push share prices down again. So they’ll lose money, as many did on Wednesday, after the Fed and Chair Jerome Powell made it clear that even if rates rise more slowly in the future, the peak could be higher than anticipated. The time will come when the Fed slows down, pauses, and eventually pivots toward lower rates. But it’s the incoming economic data that will determine that, and so it’s the data that everyone will have to watch, starting with US payrolls this Friday. Investors Need to Stop Imagining Pivots That Lose Them Money.
Bottom-line: 17개 서비스 산업 종사 구매 관리자에 대한 설문 결과는 93%가 거의 모든 품목에서 전달보다 동일하거나 비싼 가격을 지불했다고 응답한 것으로 나타남. 특히 대확산 이후 인플레이션을 끌어올린 부동산 부문의 비용이 높았고, 배송지연의 문제 외에도 모든 원자재 가격 상승도 관찰됨. 이 설문이 실물을 제대로 반영하고 있다면, 10월 물가에 대한 지표 또한 넓은 범위에서의 물가 상승이 관찰 될 것임. 그리고 이는 중앙은행이 강경한 통화정책을 유지해야 할 이유를 제공할 것임.
The US service sector saw widespread price rises last month. This suggests inflation is rising, and could lend to more yield curve flattening. The ISM services index of prices gained for the first time in six months. It rose 2 in October to 70.7. And gains were broad with seventeen industries reporting price jumps. More than 93% of those surveyed reported paying the same or higher prices in the month. The biggest price gains were in real estate and rental and leasing, according to today’s report. Housing, shelter and OER have been a sticky sources of inflation since the pandemic started. Prices seemed to continue to climb for commodities, including plumbing, flooring materials, floor adhesives, door locks, and bedroom and bathroom doors, according to comments from the survey panel. Delivery delays are adding to rental and real-estate related pricing woes, according to comments. If these purchasing managers are correct, next week’s October CPI report could show another broad jump in prices, particularly in the swollen housing market. That’s something that would keep the Fed on its tightening warpath.
The US service sector saw widespread price rises last month. This suggests inflation is rising, and could lend to more yield curve flattening. The ISM services index of prices gained for the first time in six months. It rose 2 in October to 70.7. And gains were broad with seventeen industries reporting price jumps. More than 93% of those surveyed reported paying the same or higher prices in the month. The biggest price gains were in real estate and rental and leasing, according to today’s report. Housing, shelter and OER have been a sticky sources of inflation since the pandemic started. Prices seemed to continue to climb for commodities, including plumbing, flooring materials, floor adhesives, door locks, and bedroom and bathroom doors, according to comments from the survey panel. Delivery delays are adding to rental and real-estate related pricing woes, according to comments. If these purchasing managers are correct, next week’s October CPI report could show another broad jump in prices, particularly in the swollen housing market. That’s something that would keep the Fed on its tightening warpath.