“This is a devil’s bargain,”
said Steve Chiavarone, senior portfolio manager at Federated Hermes. “Size of rate hikes will likely fall, but terminal rate is likely higher -- the implication is a greater number of smaller rate hikes. That is not dovish.”
said Steve Chiavarone, senior portfolio manager at Federated Hermes. “Size of rate hikes will likely fall, but terminal rate is likely higher -- the implication is a greater number of smaller rate hikes. That is not dovish.”
Bottom-line: 중국은 바이러스 확산 억제를 위한 정책을 강경하게 유지할 것이라 공식적으로 발표함.
China’s top health body said the nation’s zero-tolerance approach remains the overall strategy to fighting Covid-19 after unverified social media posts buoyed hopes the policy would be eased. The National Health Commission convened a meeting hosted by party chief Ma Xiaowei on Wednesday to study the messages delivered during the party congress held last month. Ma said that officials must be committed to Covid Zero and the work of controlling the virus, according to a statement from the commission. “We must resolutely maintain the general approach of ‘preventing imported cases and domestic resurgence’ and the overall strategy of ‘dynamic Covid Zero’,” Ma said in the meeting, according to the statement.
China’s top health body said the nation’s zero-tolerance approach remains the overall strategy to fighting Covid-19 after unverified social media posts buoyed hopes the policy would be eased. The National Health Commission convened a meeting hosted by party chief Ma Xiaowei on Wednesday to study the messages delivered during the party congress held last month. Ma said that officials must be committed to Covid Zero and the work of controlling the virus, according to a statement from the commission. “We must resolutely maintain the general approach of ‘preventing imported cases and domestic resurgence’ and the overall strategy of ‘dynamic Covid Zero’,” Ma said in the meeting, according to the statement.
Bottom-line: 투자자들이 여전히 중앙은행의 정책선회를 기대하고, 또한 주가가 그에 맞춰 상승할 수 있음. 중앙은행은 그럴수록 강경한 발언을 통해 주가를 하락시키고자 할 것임. 결국 언젠가 최종 정책금리에 도달하고, 또 다시 금리를 인하할 수도 있지만, 그것은 이번 통화정책회의에서 발언 한 오랜 시간의 데이터에 의존할 것임. 투자자들은 계속해서 돈을 잃는 선회에 대한 상상을 멈춰야 할 것임.
If stock investors want to front-run a dovish pivot, they’re welcome to do so, but all they will do is provoke more aggressively hawkish rhetoric to push share prices down again. So they’ll lose money, as many did on Wednesday, after the Fed and Chair Jerome Powell made it clear that even if rates rise more slowly in the future, the peak could be higher than anticipated. The time will come when the Fed slows down, pauses, and eventually pivots toward lower rates. But it’s the incoming economic data that will determine that, and so it’s the data that everyone will have to watch, starting with US payrolls this Friday. Investors Need to Stop Imagining Pivots That Lose Them Money.
If stock investors want to front-run a dovish pivot, they’re welcome to do so, but all they will do is provoke more aggressively hawkish rhetoric to push share prices down again. So they’ll lose money, as many did on Wednesday, after the Fed and Chair Jerome Powell made it clear that even if rates rise more slowly in the future, the peak could be higher than anticipated. The time will come when the Fed slows down, pauses, and eventually pivots toward lower rates. But it’s the incoming economic data that will determine that, and so it’s the data that everyone will have to watch, starting with US payrolls this Friday. Investors Need to Stop Imagining Pivots That Lose Them Money.
Bottom-line: 17개 서비스 산업 종사 구매 관리자에 대한 설문 결과는 93%가 거의 모든 품목에서 전달보다 동일하거나 비싼 가격을 지불했다고 응답한 것으로 나타남. 특히 대확산 이후 인플레이션을 끌어올린 부동산 부문의 비용이 높았고, 배송지연의 문제 외에도 모든 원자재 가격 상승도 관찰됨. 이 설문이 실물을 제대로 반영하고 있다면, 10월 물가에 대한 지표 또한 넓은 범위에서의 물가 상승이 관찰 될 것임. 그리고 이는 중앙은행이 강경한 통화정책을 유지해야 할 이유를 제공할 것임.
The US service sector saw widespread price rises last month. This suggests inflation is rising, and could lend to more yield curve flattening. The ISM services index of prices gained for the first time in six months. It rose 2 in October to 70.7. And gains were broad with seventeen industries reporting price jumps. More than 93% of those surveyed reported paying the same or higher prices in the month. The biggest price gains were in real estate and rental and leasing, according to today’s report. Housing, shelter and OER have been a sticky sources of inflation since the pandemic started. Prices seemed to continue to climb for commodities, including plumbing, flooring materials, floor adhesives, door locks, and bedroom and bathroom doors, according to comments from the survey panel. Delivery delays are adding to rental and real-estate related pricing woes, according to comments. If these purchasing managers are correct, next week’s October CPI report could show another broad jump in prices, particularly in the swollen housing market. That’s something that would keep the Fed on its tightening warpath.
The US service sector saw widespread price rises last month. This suggests inflation is rising, and could lend to more yield curve flattening. The ISM services index of prices gained for the first time in six months. It rose 2 in October to 70.7. And gains were broad with seventeen industries reporting price jumps. More than 93% of those surveyed reported paying the same or higher prices in the month. The biggest price gains were in real estate and rental and leasing, according to today’s report. Housing, shelter and OER have been a sticky sources of inflation since the pandemic started. Prices seemed to continue to climb for commodities, including plumbing, flooring materials, floor adhesives, door locks, and bedroom and bathroom doors, according to comments from the survey panel. Delivery delays are adding to rental and real-estate related pricing woes, according to comments. If these purchasing managers are correct, next week’s October CPI report could show another broad jump in prices, particularly in the swollen housing market. That’s something that would keep the Fed on its tightening warpath.
Powell gets another illustration of an “out of balance” job market. Average hourly earnings picking up, also.
Bottom-line: 경제활동에 참가하려는 인구가 예상과 달리 감소하며 실업률은 상승.
Labor force participation unexpectedly ticked down, and the unemployment rate moved up to 3.7%, more than expected.
Labor force participation unexpectedly ticked down, and the unemployment rate moved up to 3.7%, more than expected.
Bottom-line: 최종 정책금리를 5.25%로 책정하기 시작함.
Fed Swaps Price in Peak Policy Rate of 5.25% in June 2023.
Fed Swaps Price in Peak Policy Rate of 5.25% in June 2023.
Bottom-line: 9월 4.6%의 점도표 이후 12월 새로운 점도표를 앞두고 파월은 지침을 제공한 바가 없고, 고용시장의 탄력을 보며 시장 참여자들이 5.25%의 최종 정책금리를 책정함.
Fed swaps are now penciling in a peak Fed policy rate of 5.25% in June. That’s way above the 4.6% median forecast of policymakers back in September. Remember, Powell himself on Wednesday didn’t offer a new estimate for the peak.
Fed swaps are now penciling in a peak Fed policy rate of 5.25% in June. That’s way above the 4.6% median forecast of policymakers back in September. Remember, Powell himself on Wednesday didn’t offer a new estimate for the peak.
Bottom-line: 지표 발표 이후 급락했던 주가는 정확히 발표 전 수준으로 곧바로 회복함. 경제지표와 별개로 그 반응을 예측하는게 이처럼 어려운 일임.
Stock futures -- pretty much back up where they were before the release -- are again showing how difficult it is to predict the market reaction to data.
Stock futures -- pretty much back up where they were before the release -- are again showing how difficult it is to predict the market reaction to data.
Bottom-line: 민주당은 강력한 고용회복을 분명 강조하겠지만, 공화당은 꺼지지 않는 인플레이션 환경으로 공격할 것임. 시간 당 임금 4.7% 증가 대비 물가 8% 상승은 가계의 구매력에 타격을 줄 것이기 때문임.
The White House will doubtless make one last effort to ram home the message of a powerful jobs recovery, ahead of Tuesday’s midterm election. But the Republicans have made far more hay out of harping on the inflationary damage to household incomes. If you set the 4.7% hourly earnings annual gain against the roughly 8% inflation rate, you can see the hit to purchasing power.
The White House will doubtless make one last effort to ram home the message of a powerful jobs recovery, ahead of Tuesday’s midterm election. But the Republicans have made far more hay out of harping on the inflationary damage to household incomes. If you set the 4.7% hourly earnings annual gain against the roughly 8% inflation rate, you can see the hit to purchasing power.
Bottom-line: 주식시장의 변동성 지수는 대확산이나 금융위기 당시보다 낮음. 하지만 올해 S&P 500 지수가 월간 7% 이상 움직인 달이 5번이나 될 정도로 극심한 변동성을 겪고 있음. 이 수준은 금융위기나 대공황 당시를 제외하곤 볼 수 없었던 일임.
Wall Street’s VIX gauge is well below the panic levels seen during the Covid pandemic or the 2008 crisis, but extreme volatility is very much a feature of 2022. The S&P 500 equity index has already seen five monthly moves this year in excess of 7%, either to the upside or downside. Beyond the tumult of the 2008 global financial crisis, one must go back to 1933 -- the days of the Great Depression -- to see more swings of such magnitude in a single year.
Wall Street’s VIX gauge is well below the panic levels seen during the Covid pandemic or the 2008 crisis, but extreme volatility is very much a feature of 2022. The S&P 500 equity index has already seen five monthly moves this year in excess of 7%, either to the upside or downside. Beyond the tumult of the 2008 global financial crisis, one must go back to 1933 -- the days of the Great Depression -- to see more swings of such magnitude in a single year.
• 긴축에 대한 시각
저녁에는 Bloomberg economics가 대다수 시장 참여자(과한 긴축)와 다른 방향의 걱정(너무 약한 긴축)을 하는데 대한 도슨트를 올리겠습니다.
저녁에는 Bloomberg economics가 대다수 시장 참여자(과한 긴축)와 다른 방향의 걱정(너무 약한 긴축)을 하는데 대한 도슨트를 올리겠습니다.