Bottom-line: BYE-NANCE.
Changpeng “CZ” Zhao walked away from his bailout for Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX.com almost as quickly as he offered a rescue. “Our hope was to be able to support FTX’s customers to provide liquidity, but the issues are beyond our control or ability to help,” Binance, the crypto exchange founded by Zhao, said in a statement. An FTX spokesperson declined to comment.
Changpeng “CZ” Zhao walked away from his bailout for Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX.com almost as quickly as he offered a rescue. “Our hope was to be able to support FTX’s customers to provide liquidity, but the issues are beyond our control or ability to help,” Binance, the crypto exchange founded by Zhao, said in a statement. An FTX spokesperson declined to comment.
Bottom-line: 11월 초기에 몰려있는 대형 사건들인 중앙은행, 고용, 선거, 그리고 물가, 그 중 오늘이 마지막 차례인 물가지표 발표일임. 지난 달의 물가지표는 우리가 예상치의 상회와 하회에 주목하는 것보다 실질금리를 살펴보는 것이 더 필요하다는 것을 알려줌. 주식시장의 반등을 주도 한 몇 가지 요인들이 사라진 와중에 실질금리는 여전히 일정한 범위 안에서 움직이고 있는데, 지난 번 시기 인플레이션 발표에도 실질금리가 전혀 오르지 않으면서 이미 주식시장이 크게 반응하지 않을 것이란 사실을 알려주었기 때문임. 물가지표 발표 후 실질금리 움직임을 추적하며 대응할 필요가 있음.
No prizes for guessing what today’s focus will be, the last leg of the four scheduled major market catalysts (Fed, NFP, and midterms being the others) in the first half of the month. As it turns out, the cryptosphere has added a fifth driver of the market narrative (or sentiment), but for this morning the focus is squarely on the inflation reading. To some extent, I’m not sure how much insight there is to provide ahead of time. Market pricing for the y/y print on headline (via the CPI fixing market) is pretty close to the consensus estimate, though it is worth noting that there is some bias to the forecast monthly changes. The expectation is tilted to the upside in terms of the monthly change in headline (the average forecast is 0.62% versus a median of 0.6%), while the opposite is the case for core-- the average forecast is 0.47% (with 24 respondents forecasting 0.4%) versus the median of 0.5% (with 32 economists predicting this reading.) Last month provided an illustration of how the obvious market reaction isn’t necessarily the correct one at the end of the day, though one might say that some of the factors that drove the extraordinary equity bounce (positioning, earnings hope, Fed and election narratives) have dissipated to a significant extent. Real yields remain fairly range-bound, so one thing to watch will be how they react to a surprise print -- the failure of real yields to rise in the face of last month’s inflation release perhaps provided an early warning signal that equities might not react as one would expect.
No prizes for guessing what today’s focus will be, the last leg of the four scheduled major market catalysts (Fed, NFP, and midterms being the others) in the first half of the month. As it turns out, the cryptosphere has added a fifth driver of the market narrative (or sentiment), but for this morning the focus is squarely on the inflation reading. To some extent, I’m not sure how much insight there is to provide ahead of time. Market pricing for the y/y print on headline (via the CPI fixing market) is pretty close to the consensus estimate, though it is worth noting that there is some bias to the forecast monthly changes. The expectation is tilted to the upside in terms of the monthly change in headline (the average forecast is 0.62% versus a median of 0.6%), while the opposite is the case for core-- the average forecast is 0.47% (with 24 respondents forecasting 0.4%) versus the median of 0.5% (with 32 economists predicting this reading.) Last month provided an illustration of how the obvious market reaction isn’t necessarily the correct one at the end of the day, though one might say that some of the factors that drove the extraordinary equity bounce (positioning, earnings hope, Fed and election narratives) have dissipated to a significant extent. Real yields remain fairly range-bound, so one thing to watch will be how they react to a surprise print -- the failure of real yields to rise in the face of last month’s inflation release perhaps provided an early warning signal that equities might not react as one would expect.
Bottom-line: 중앙은행이 정책금리를 결정하기 전에 또 한 번의 물가지표가 남았지만, 우선 시장은 안도함.
We have another CPI report before the Fed’s next policy meeting, but at this point it wouldn’t be surprising if we start to see Fed policymakers shift toward slowing the pace of rate hikes to 50 basis points from 75.
We have another CPI report before the Fed’s next policy meeting, but at this point it wouldn’t be surprising if we start to see Fed policymakers shift toward slowing the pace of rate hikes to 50 basis points from 75.
Bottom-line: 폴 크루그먼은 중앙은행이 해야 할 일을 충분히 했기에, 이제 멈춰서 금리인상이 경제에 미치는 영향을 지켜봐야 한다 주장함. 이는 미국인들의 장기와 단기 물가 예상이 오른 것과 달리 시장 추정을 하회하는 물가지표가 발표 된 뒤 한 말임. 1980년대 이후 물가를 통제하기 위해 가장 공격적인 금리인상을 하는 중앙은행에 그는 물가가 현재가 아닌 지난날을 알려줄 뿐이며, 그는 물가로 무슨 일이 발생하는지 판단하는 것을 개인적으론 이제 중단했다고 밝힘.
Nobel laureate economist Paul Krugman sees good reasons for the Federal Reserve to consider pausing its interest-rate increases to assess the effects of its hikes on the US economy so far this year. “My view is that the Fed has probably done enough already, and that they really, really should pause and wait to see,” Krugman said Friday on “Balance of Power” with David Westin on Bloomberg Television. “If we get another good CPI report, then there’s going to be a lot of soul-searching at the Fed, saying, ‘are we really being way too hawkish?’”. Krugman spoke a day after a government report showed that the consumer price index rose by less than forecast last month, fueled by declines in the price gauges of medical care services and used vehicles. Meanwhile, a separate report out Friday showed an increase in Americans’ short- and long-term inflation expectations. The Fed has embarked on the most aggressive tightening cycle since the 1980s this year in an effort to tame decades-high inflation. The central bank raised interest rates by 75 basis points for a fourth straight time last week, but is expected to moderate the pace of hiking as soon as next month following the cooler-than-expected inflation report. “The number you see for inflation is in many ways a portrait of where the economy was last winter, not a portrait of where the economy is now, and where the economy is now is probably a lot more favorable,” said Krugman, now at the City University of New York. “I have largely given up personally on using the CPI to judge what’s going on at all.”
Nobel laureate economist Paul Krugman sees good reasons for the Federal Reserve to consider pausing its interest-rate increases to assess the effects of its hikes on the US economy so far this year. “My view is that the Fed has probably done enough already, and that they really, really should pause and wait to see,” Krugman said Friday on “Balance of Power” with David Westin on Bloomberg Television. “If we get another good CPI report, then there’s going to be a lot of soul-searching at the Fed, saying, ‘are we really being way too hawkish?’”. Krugman spoke a day after a government report showed that the consumer price index rose by less than forecast last month, fueled by declines in the price gauges of medical care services and used vehicles. Meanwhile, a separate report out Friday showed an increase in Americans’ short- and long-term inflation expectations. The Fed has embarked on the most aggressive tightening cycle since the 1980s this year in an effort to tame decades-high inflation. The central bank raised interest rates by 75 basis points for a fourth straight time last week, but is expected to moderate the pace of hiking as soon as next month following the cooler-than-expected inflation report. “The number you see for inflation is in many ways a portrait of where the economy was last winter, not a portrait of where the economy is now, and where the economy is now is probably a lot more favorable,” said Krugman, now at the City University of New York. “I have largely given up personally on using the CPI to judge what’s going on at all.”
Bottom-line: 중국 당국은 은행들이 채권과 연계 된 금융상품에서 대규모 인출이 발생할 때 이에 응할 수 있는 충분한 유동성을 확보하고 있는지 보고토록 지시했음. 이는 10조 달러 규모의 중국 주식시장이 바이러스 억제 정책 완화, 부동산 지원, 서방 국가와의 긴장 완화 등 일련의 움직임이 이어지는 가운데 큰 폭으로 상승하면서 발생한 안전자산에서 위험자산으로의 급격한 자금 이동 때문임. 이 기간 동안 최고 등급의 회사채의 금리조차 급등했음.
Chinese regulators asked banks to report on their ability to meet short-term obligations after a rapid selloff in bonds triggered a flood of investor withdrawals from fixed-income products, according to people familiar with the matter. The unscheduled regulatory queries coincided with the biggest decline in China’s short-term government debt since mid-2020. The slump -- spurred by a shift toward riskier assets including stocks -- prompted retail investors to pull money from wealth-management products, fueling a spiral of price declines and accelerating withdrawals. Losses also spread to top-rated corporate bonds, stoking a record surge in yields this week. This week’s turbulence is an unexpected side-effect of growing economic optimism. China’s $10 trillion stock market has soared in recent days after President Xi Jinping’s government eased some of its strict Covid Zero policies, rolled out a rescue package for the property sector and moved to cool tensions with the US and other western nations. With money flowing into shares and other economically sensitive investments, safe haven bets on government bonds have suffered. “The slump in bond market lately has caused some retreat in mark-to-market value in some of the wealth management products,” Bank of China Ltd.’s wealth management unit said in a statement on Wednesday. “The PBOC’s monetary easing has trailed expectations, which tightened liquidity condition and pushed money market rates higher, while the adjustments in property and Covid policies to support economic growth have also lifted sentiment.”.
Chinese regulators asked banks to report on their ability to meet short-term obligations after a rapid selloff in bonds triggered a flood of investor withdrawals from fixed-income products, according to people familiar with the matter. The unscheduled regulatory queries coincided with the biggest decline in China’s short-term government debt since mid-2020. The slump -- spurred by a shift toward riskier assets including stocks -- prompted retail investors to pull money from wealth-management products, fueling a spiral of price declines and accelerating withdrawals. Losses also spread to top-rated corporate bonds, stoking a record surge in yields this week. This week’s turbulence is an unexpected side-effect of growing economic optimism. China’s $10 trillion stock market has soared in recent days after President Xi Jinping’s government eased some of its strict Covid Zero policies, rolled out a rescue package for the property sector and moved to cool tensions with the US and other western nations. With money flowing into shares and other economically sensitive investments, safe haven bets on government bonds have suffered. “The slump in bond market lately has caused some retreat in mark-to-market value in some of the wealth management products,” Bank of China Ltd.’s wealth management unit said in a statement on Wednesday. “The PBOC’s monetary easing has trailed expectations, which tightened liquidity condition and pushed money market rates higher, while the adjustments in property and Covid policies to support economic growth have also lifted sentiment.”.
Bottom-line: 옵션 시장과 여러 기술적 지표에 기반하면 달러 약세는 일단락 됐을 가능성이 높음. 물가와 고용 지표, 그리고 통화정책회의를 포함하는 1개월 이내 만기의 달러 옵션은 상방으로 포지션이 구축되고 있음. 중앙은행이 금리인상 폭이 아니라 최종금리의 중요성을 더욱 강조하면서 달러 손실에 대한 경계심이 무뎌지고 있음. 기술적으로 볼 때 엘리엇파동 ABC 조정이 마무리 되었으며, 피보나치 되돌림 38.2%를 저점으로 지지하며 반등한 것이 달러 약세의 마무리란 기대에 힘을 주고 있음.
The correction in the dollar might be over, according to the latest repricing in the options space and some technical indicators. On a trade-weighted basis, the greenback retreated by 7% from its cycle highs back in September, mainly driven by position re-balancing over a potential Fed pivot. Options-wise, traders are back into adding topside structures over the 1-month tenor that captures the release of the next employment and inflation reports out of the US, as well as the Fed’s policy meeting in December. So it could be that options market makers are now less convinced that the dollar is in for more losses, especially as FOMC officials keep reminding us that the terminal rate matters more than the size of the next hike. On the technical front, the extent of the recent drop in the spot market now satisfies a so-called ABC correction of a full Elliott Wave cycle that started a year ago. Moreover, the dollar’s rebound Tuesday from intraday lows came after testing a pivotal support level, namely the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of its rally since early 2021. Given another positive signal emerged, a DeMark Buy Setup on the daily chart, the greenback’s technical outlook has turned bullish, at least in the short term. That Fibonacci support, close to the Tuesday lows, has now game-changing potential, either way.
The correction in the dollar might be over, according to the latest repricing in the options space and some technical indicators. On a trade-weighted basis, the greenback retreated by 7% from its cycle highs back in September, mainly driven by position re-balancing over a potential Fed pivot. Options-wise, traders are back into adding topside structures over the 1-month tenor that captures the release of the next employment and inflation reports out of the US, as well as the Fed’s policy meeting in December. So it could be that options market makers are now less convinced that the dollar is in for more losses, especially as FOMC officials keep reminding us that the terminal rate matters more than the size of the next hike. On the technical front, the extent of the recent drop in the spot market now satisfies a so-called ABC correction of a full Elliott Wave cycle that started a year ago. Moreover, the dollar’s rebound Tuesday from intraday lows came after testing a pivotal support level, namely the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of its rally since early 2021. Given another positive signal emerged, a DeMark Buy Setup on the daily chart, the greenback’s technical outlook has turned bullish, at least in the short term. That Fibonacci support, close to the Tuesday lows, has now game-changing potential, either way.
Bottom-line: 유럽 중앙은행도 75bp의 금리인상보다 50bp 금리인상으로 그 강도를 조절할 것으로 보임. 이런 논의의 주 된 이유는 경기침체 위험 증가, 소비자 물가 압력 완화 가능성, 경제를 지나치게 자극치 않는 2%대의 중립금리 도달에 따름. 이와 함께 대차대조표 축소 논의도 시작 될 것으로 보임.
European Central Bank policy makers may slow down interest-rate hiking with only a 50 basis-point increase next month, according to people with knowledge of the matter. Initial discussions suggest a lack of momentum for another 75 basis-point move at present, the people said, declining to be identified because Governing Council deliberations are private. Barring another surprise surge in inflation, the consensus might well favor the less aggressive step, they said. Among reasons cited are mounting recession risks, the possibility that consumer-price pressures will weaken, and the prospect that a half-point move in the deposit rate to 2% will reach close to a so-called neutral level that no longer stimulates the economy. The need to bargain over a start to balance-sheet reduction was also cited. An ECB spokesman declined to comment.
European Central Bank policy makers may slow down interest-rate hiking with only a 50 basis-point increase next month, according to people with knowledge of the matter. Initial discussions suggest a lack of momentum for another 75 basis-point move at present, the people said, declining to be identified because Governing Council deliberations are private. Barring another surprise surge in inflation, the consensus might well favor the less aggressive step, they said. Among reasons cited are mounting recession risks, the possibility that consumer-price pressures will weaken, and the prospect that a half-point move in the deposit rate to 2% will reach close to a so-called neutral level that no longer stimulates the economy. The need to bargain over a start to balance-sheet reduction was also cited. An ECB spokesman declined to comment.
Bottom-line: 제임스 블라드는 테일러 준칙을 활용한 차트를 제시하며 중앙은행이 물가를 통제하기 위한 최종 정책금리는 5.0%~7.0% 사이가 되어야 한다고 주장함. 관대한 조건의 가정에서 보더라도 현재 금리가 충분히 제한적 영역에 있다 볼 수 없고, 해당 영역까지 끌어올리기 위한 추가 금리인상의 필요성을 주장했음. 이는 중앙은행이 설정 한 3.75%~4.0% 금리 수준보다 훨씬 높으며 최근의 중앙은행 인사들의 발언 중 가장 강경한 태도임.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard urged policymakers to raise interest rates further, saying the level will need to be higher to meet the central bank’s goal to be “sufficiently restrictive” to bring down inflation. “Even under these generous assumptions, the policy rate is not yet in a zone that may be considered sufficiently restrictive,” Bullard said Thursday in Louisville, Kentucky at an event hosted by Greater Louisville Inc. “To attain a sufficiently restrictive level, the policy rate will need to be increased further.”. Bullard presented charts showing a sufficiently restrictive rate might be between about 5% and 7%, though he didn’t spell out in his prepared remarks what rate level he favored. The calculation used different versions of a Taylor Rule, a popular monetary policy guideline developed by Stanford University’s John Taylor. That compares with the current 3.75% to 4% target level of the Fed’s benchmark rate, which it reached earlier this month. The St. Louis Fed leader, who has been among the more hawkish of policy makers this year, was the latest central banker to call for additional action. The Fed raised rates by 75 basis points on Nov. 2 for the fourth straight time as part of its most aggressive tightening since the 1980s to curb an inflation rate at a four-decade high. “Thus far, the change in the monetary-policy stance appears to have had only limited effects on observed inflation, but market pricing suggests disinflation is expected in 2023,” Bullard said.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard urged policymakers to raise interest rates further, saying the level will need to be higher to meet the central bank’s goal to be “sufficiently restrictive” to bring down inflation. “Even under these generous assumptions, the policy rate is not yet in a zone that may be considered sufficiently restrictive,” Bullard said Thursday in Louisville, Kentucky at an event hosted by Greater Louisville Inc. “To attain a sufficiently restrictive level, the policy rate will need to be increased further.”. Bullard presented charts showing a sufficiently restrictive rate might be between about 5% and 7%, though he didn’t spell out in his prepared remarks what rate level he favored. The calculation used different versions of a Taylor Rule, a popular monetary policy guideline developed by Stanford University’s John Taylor. That compares with the current 3.75% to 4% target level of the Fed’s benchmark rate, which it reached earlier this month. The St. Louis Fed leader, who has been among the more hawkish of policy makers this year, was the latest central banker to call for additional action. The Fed raised rates by 75 basis points on Nov. 2 for the fourth straight time as part of its most aggressive tightening since the 1980s to curb an inflation rate at a four-decade high. “Thus far, the change in the monetary-policy stance appears to have had only limited effects on observed inflation, but market pricing suggests disinflation is expected in 2023,” Bullard said.
Bottom-line: 골드만삭스는 내년 아시아 전망을 통해 현재까지 초과수익을 거둔 지역에 대해 투자의견 하향 조정을 하고, 부진한 성과를 보였던 중국과 한국에 대한 투자의견을 상향 제시함. 한국의 경우 종전 시장중립에서 비중확대로 상향했음. 이 배경에는 중국이 바이러스 억제 정책을 완화하고, 세계경제 여건이 회복되는데 대한 기대에 있음.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. turned more bullish on stocks tied to China and South Korea, saying this year’s Asian laggards will outperform in 2023 as the mainland reopens after Covid-19 restrictions and the global backdrop improves. “Regional equity leadership may shift north after Asean and India strength in 2022 as China markets rebound and Korea anticipates recovery,” strategists including Timothy Moe wrote in a note. A challenging global economic backdrop for interest rates, growth and the dollar may also improve in the second quarter, they added. The US investment bank upgraded Hong Kong to marketweight from underweight and raised South Korea to overweight from marketweight in its Asia allocation. It remained overweight on the MSCI China Index. Moe and his team expect a 16% return for the MSCI China benchmark and the CSI 300 Index next year. Separately, they downgraded Indonesia to marketweight from overweight, and Thailand and Malaysia to underweight. Goldman slashed the 12-month target for the MSCI Asia Pacific Excluding Japan Index to 515 from 585 on Sept. 30. The gauge has since risen by about 11%, taking it to 4.3% short of the expected level as of yesterday’s close.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. turned more bullish on stocks tied to China and South Korea, saying this year’s Asian laggards will outperform in 2023 as the mainland reopens after Covid-19 restrictions and the global backdrop improves. “Regional equity leadership may shift north after Asean and India strength in 2022 as China markets rebound and Korea anticipates recovery,” strategists including Timothy Moe wrote in a note. A challenging global economic backdrop for interest rates, growth and the dollar may also improve in the second quarter, they added. The US investment bank upgraded Hong Kong to marketweight from underweight and raised South Korea to overweight from marketweight in its Asia allocation. It remained overweight on the MSCI China Index. Moe and his team expect a 16% return for the MSCI China benchmark and the CSI 300 Index next year. Separately, they downgraded Indonesia to marketweight from overweight, and Thailand and Malaysia to underweight. Goldman slashed the 12-month target for the MSCI Asia Pacific Excluding Japan Index to 515 from 585 on Sept. 30. The gauge has since risen by about 11%, taking it to 4.3% short of the expected level as of yesterday’s close.
Bottom-line: 아시아 투자등급의 달러 표시 회사채의 월간 수익률이 2009년 집계 이후 최고치를 기록할 것으로 보임. 미국의 인플레이션 둔화 징조와 중국과 미국 간 긴장 완화, 그리고 중국의 바이러스 억제 정책 완화 및 부동산 지원책들이 쏟아지며 투자자들이 보다 긍정적인 기대를 하도록 만들었음. 특히 중국 부동산 회사채의 경우 가격 기준 두 배에서 70%에 이르기까지 월 간 큰 폭의 상승을 보였음. 일본 제외 아시아 평균으로는 월간 3%의 수익을 11월에 거두고 있음.
Asian investment-grade dollar corporate bonds look poised to deliver their best monthly returns in 13 years, buoyed by hopes of softening inflation and China’s stronger efforts to rescue an ailing property sector. Such notes in Asia ex-Japan have returned 3% so far in November, which would mark the biggest gain since 2009 when Bloomberg started compiling a relevant index. Chinese developers have been among the best performers after Beijing issued sweeping measures to ease the sector’s cash crunch. The prices of two notes from Longfor Group Holdings Ltd., due in 2028 and 2032 respectively, have both more than doubled this month. China Vanke Co.’s bond due 2027 and Beijing Capital Land Ltd.’s maturing in 2025 also have risen about 70% and 20%, respectively. Investor appetite in global risk assets has improved amid signs of cooling US inflation and reduced tensions between the world’s top two economies. Beijing’s latest steps to ease strict Covid controls and prop up a depressed housing market also have fueled optimism about the country’s growth outlook.
Asian investment-grade dollar corporate bonds look poised to deliver their best monthly returns in 13 years, buoyed by hopes of softening inflation and China’s stronger efforts to rescue an ailing property sector. Such notes in Asia ex-Japan have returned 3% so far in November, which would mark the biggest gain since 2009 when Bloomberg started compiling a relevant index. Chinese developers have been among the best performers after Beijing issued sweeping measures to ease the sector’s cash crunch. The prices of two notes from Longfor Group Holdings Ltd., due in 2028 and 2032 respectively, have both more than doubled this month. China Vanke Co.’s bond due 2027 and Beijing Capital Land Ltd.’s maturing in 2025 also have risen about 70% and 20%, respectively. Investor appetite in global risk assets has improved amid signs of cooling US inflation and reduced tensions between the world’s top two economies. Beijing’s latest steps to ease strict Covid controls and prop up a depressed housing market also have fueled optimism about the country’s growth outlook.