Bottom-line: 제이피모건의 전략가는 중앙은행이 금리를 인하하기 전까지 자산가격의 안정적 상승은 어렵다고 전망함. 금리인하를 내년 언젠가 하겠지만, 그 시점이 불명확하고, 금리인하를 위해서는 실업률 증가, 물가 하락, 금융시장의 어떤 붕괴가 필요함. 고용시장이 워낙 강해 투자자들은 금리인상의 단서를 물가 하락, 경제나 기업 이익 둔화, 그리고 금융시장 어딘가에서의 붕괴위험을 살피고 있다고 함.
JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Marko Kolanovic says in order to have a sustained rally in asset prices the Federal Reserve needs to start reducing interest rates, but that’s unlikely to happen in the near term. The Fed may begin cutting rates at some point next year, but the timing remains unclear, JPMorgan strategists led by Kolanovic wrote in a note to clients Monday. A combination of increased unemployment, declining inflation and “something breaking in financial markets” are likely necessary for a Fed pivot, they wrote. Since an increase in unemployment is unlikely to happen soon, traders are looking for better inflation data, signs that the economy and earnings growth are slowing, and rising risks of a financial accident.
JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Marko Kolanovic says in order to have a sustained rally in asset prices the Federal Reserve needs to start reducing interest rates, but that’s unlikely to happen in the near term. The Fed may begin cutting rates at some point next year, but the timing remains unclear, JPMorgan strategists led by Kolanovic wrote in a note to clients Monday. A combination of increased unemployment, declining inflation and “something breaking in financial markets” are likely necessary for a Fed pivot, they wrote. Since an increase in unemployment is unlikely to happen soon, traders are looking for better inflation data, signs that the economy and earnings growth are slowing, and rising risks of a financial accident.
Bottom-line: 칼 아이칸은 개인 투자자들의 열풍에 따른 광란의 주식 시대 때부터 게임스탑에 대한 매도 포지션을 구축해서 현재까지 유지하고 있는 것으로 알려졌음. 2021년 1월 당시 게임스탑의 최고 가격이었던 483달러 부근에서 매도 포지션을 쌓기 시작한 것으로 추정되며, 이 주식의 가격이 기업의 본질적 가치와 무관하게 형성되었기 때문에 지속적인 가격 하락이 있을 것으로 예상하고 있음. 주식을 1/4로 분할한 게임스탑은 고점 대비 -71% 하락한 상태에서 거래되고 있음.
Billionaire investor Carl Icahn began shorting GameStop Corp. during the height of the meme-stock frenzy around January 2021 and still holds a large position in the video-game retailer, according to people familiar with the matter. Icahn started building the short when GameStop was trading near its peak of $483 per share and still holds a large bet against the retailer’s shares, said the people, asking not to be identified because the matter is private. The investor, who has added to his position from time to time, is betting that GameStop’s stock isn’t trading on its fundamentals and will continue to fall, the people said. The size of his position isn’t clear. GameStop fell 8.8% Monday to close at $25.16, giving the retailer a market value of $7.7 billion. The retailer executed a four-for-one stock split this year and has lost 71% of its value from a January 2021 closing high.
Billionaire investor Carl Icahn began shorting GameStop Corp. during the height of the meme-stock frenzy around January 2021 and still holds a large position in the video-game retailer, according to people familiar with the matter. Icahn started building the short when GameStop was trading near its peak of $483 per share and still holds a large bet against the retailer’s shares, said the people, asking not to be identified because the matter is private. The investor, who has added to his position from time to time, is betting that GameStop’s stock isn’t trading on its fundamentals and will continue to fall, the people said. The size of his position isn’t clear. GameStop fell 8.8% Monday to close at $25.16, giving the retailer a market value of $7.7 billion. The retailer executed a four-for-one stock split this year and has lost 71% of its value from a January 2021 closing high.
Bottom-line: 타이거 글로벌 자산운용이 FTX에 투자할 때 실사를 담당한 곳 중 하나가 베인 앤 컴퍼니로 알려짐. 타이거 글로벌은 베인 앤 컴퍼니에 실사와 분석에 대한 대가로 연간 단위로 1억 달러 이상을 지불하고 있음. FTX에 투자한 3,800만 달러의 가치는 현재 0으로 상각했으며, 투자 당시 매니저는 일부 위험이 발견됐음에도 불구하고 이 투자가 안전하다고 생각했음. FTX 사태로 수십억 달러에 달하는 잠재적 손실이 헤지펀드, 벤처 캐피탈에 확대됨에 따라 '왜 위험을 사전에 발견하지 못했는가'에 관심이 집중되고 있음.
Bain & Co. was among consulting firms that helped conduct due diligence for Tiger Global Management’s investment in now-defunct crypto exchange FTX, according to people familiar with the matter. Tiger Global, which pays Bain more than $100 million a year to research private companies, has now written downits $38 million FTX stake to zero, the people said. Sam Bankman-Fried’s oversight of a vast web of FTX-linked entities was one of the risks highlighted during the due-diligence process, but the money manager still believed it was a sound investment at the time, one of the people said. A representative for Chase Coleman’s Tiger Global declined to comment, and Bain didn’t immediately reply to messages seeking comment. This month’s implosion of FTX has caused billions of dollars of potential losses for investors and sparked legal and regulatory probes. It also prompted questions about how warning signs were missed by institutional investors, including hedge funds and venture capital firms. Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan was among them, writing off its entire $95 million investment, while Sequoia Capital marked down its $214 million wager to zero.
Bain & Co. was among consulting firms that helped conduct due diligence for Tiger Global Management’s investment in now-defunct crypto exchange FTX, according to people familiar with the matter. Tiger Global, which pays Bain more than $100 million a year to research private companies, has now written down
Bottom-line: 각국의 중앙은행들이 금리를 인상하며 투자자들의 투자등급 회사채 만기 선호도가 급격하게 짧아지고 있음. 이번 달 발행 된 채권의 평균 만기는 6.3년으로 2018년 12월 이후 가장 짧으며, 올해 10개월 간 발행 된 채권의 평균 만기 7.8년과도 큰 차이를 보임. 투자자들은 금리가 지속 높아지는 상황에서 15년래 최고 금리를 확정하기보다 금리 변동에 포트폴리오 노출을 줄이기 위해 만기를 더 짧게 가져가려고 하는 위험회피 태도를 보이고 있음.
Borrowers piling into Europe’s debt market are selling bonds with the lowest average maturity in four years. Bonds sold this month by investment-grade issuers in the common currency have an average tenor of about 6.3 years, the lowest since December 2018, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That compares with a 7.8-year average maturity for notes issued in the first 10 months of 2022. “Beyond investors taking a cautious stance on the curve, I think many issuers were and still will be hesitant to lock in what could be close to peak yields for 12 years or 15 years,” said Commerzbank AG head of credit strategy Marco Stoeckle. “There is a good chance that conditions might improve next year.”. Multiple central bank rate hikes this year have pushed borrowing costs toward the highest in a decade, making it more expensive for companies to issue long-term debt. Meanwhile, with longer-maturity notes most exposed to yield swings, investors have a preference for shorter notes as they navigate the volatility that’s buffeted global markets this year. “Investors are wary of extending interest rates sensitivity of their bond portfolios in an environment where interest rates are on the rise,” said Paola Binns, a portfolio manager at Royal London Asset Management Ltd.
Borrowers piling into Europe’s debt market are selling bonds with the lowest average maturity in four years. Bonds sold this month by investment-grade issuers in the common currency have an average tenor of about 6.3 years, the lowest since December 2018, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That compares with a 7.8-year average maturity for notes issued in the first 10 months of 2022. “Beyond investors taking a cautious stance on the curve, I think many issuers were and still will be hesitant to lock in what could be close to peak yields for 12 years or 15 years,” said Commerzbank AG head of credit strategy Marco Stoeckle. “There is a good chance that conditions might improve next year.”. Multiple central bank rate hikes this year have pushed borrowing costs toward the highest in a decade, making it more expensive for companies to issue long-term debt. Meanwhile, with longer-maturity notes most exposed to yield swings, investors have a preference for shorter notes as they navigate the volatility that’s buffeted global markets this year. “Investors are wary of extending interest rates sensitivity of their bond portfolios in an environment where interest rates are on the rise,” said Paola Binns, a portfolio manager at Royal London Asset Management Ltd.
Bottom-line: S&P 500 지수가 저점에서 15% 가까이 상승하는 동안 중앙은행 인사들은 인플레이션과 지속적인 싸움을 이어갈 것이라 함. 가격과 발언 간 괴리는 향후 점점 완화 될 인플레이션이 통화정책에 제동을 걸 것이란 기대로 설명이 됨. 이런 낙관적 기대에 의한 상승이 어딜 향해 달려가는지 주목할 지점에 왔는데, 지난 3월과 8월에 상승을 반락시킨 지점에 곧 도달하기 때문임. 이는 200일 이동평균선 저항과 저점 대비 70.7%의 피보나치 되돌림 지점인 4,082.94포인트임.
The S&P 500’s rebound, which has seen the benchmark notch up gains of nearly 15% since its October lows, has brought a key area of resistance back in vogue. The equity bounce has chugged along despite many Fed officials reiterating that the fight against inflation will continue. However, that divergence can be explained by increasing investor expectations of upcoming inflation data coming in soft, helping the central bank tone down the pace of rate hikes heading into 2023. That’s so far proven to be a shot in the arm for equity bulls. Notwithstanding the optimism, the ongoing advance will run into a hurdle area where a falling trendline from the record peak meets the closely watched 200-day simple moving average and the 70.7% Fibonacci retracement level which previously reversed the two bear-market rallies that peaked out in March and August.
The S&P 500’s rebound, which has seen the benchmark notch up gains of nearly 15% since its October lows, has brought a key area of resistance back in vogue. The equity bounce has chugged along despite many Fed officials reiterating that the fight against inflation will continue. However, that divergence can be explained by increasing investor expectations of upcoming inflation data coming in soft, helping the central bank tone down the pace of rate hikes heading into 2023. That’s so far proven to be a shot in the arm for equity bulls. Notwithstanding the optimism, the ongoing advance will run into a hurdle area where a falling trendline from the record peak meets the closely watched 200-day simple moving average and the 70.7% Fibonacci retracement level which previously reversed the two bear-market rallies that peaked out in March and August.
Bottom-line: 타이거 글로벌 자산운용에서 투자했던 비상장 사모 투자자산에 대한 가치평가를 1/4 가까이 상각한 것으로 알려짐. 일부 투자의 경우 상장을 한 뒤 그 가치를 대부분 상실한 곳도 있음. 투자자들은 주식시장이 큰 폭 하락함에 따라 이와 유사한 기업에 대한 가치평가 할인이 뒤따를 것으로 예상함. 이런 회사의 움직임은 높은 성장률만으로 가치를 증명하고 자본 투자를 유입케 하려했던 기업들에게 비관적 소식임.
Tiger Global Management marked down the value of its private funds by almost a quarter this year, contributing to a $42 billion decline in assets, one of the industry’s biggest ever. In addition, some of the previously private but now-public companies held by Tiger Global’s venture unit lost value, according to people familiar with the matter. A representative for Chase Coleman’s New York-based firm declined to comment. The unit oversaw about $43 billion as of Sept. 30, down from $65 billion at year-end, after accounting for fundraising and redistributions to investors. The division marked down the value of its private investments by 24%. Assets in Tiger Global’s public investment arm shriveled to $15 billion from $35 billion, the people said. As equity markets have tumbled this year, investors have been waiting to see when the valuations of closely held firms will follow. Tiger Global’s markdowns shed light on what some of the once high-flying private companies may be worth, particularly as many of them have struggled to access capital.
Tiger Global Management marked down the value of its private funds by almost a quarter this year, contributing to a $42 billion decline in assets, one of the industry’s biggest ever. In addition, some of the previously private but now-public companies held by Tiger Global’s venture unit lost value, according to people familiar with the matter. A representative for Chase Coleman’s New York-based firm declined to comment. The unit oversaw about $43 billion as of Sept. 30, down from $65 billion at year-end, after accounting for fundraising and redistributions to investors. The division marked down the value of its private investments by 24%. Assets in Tiger Global’s public investment arm shriveled to $15 billion from $35 billion, the people said. As equity markets have tumbled this year, investors have been waiting to see when the valuations of closely held firms will follow. Tiger Global’s markdowns shed light on what some of the once high-flying private companies may be worth, particularly as many of them have struggled to access capital.
Bottom-line: 지난 25년 간 연 평균 25%의 수익률을 거둔 드러켄밀러는 2018년 인터뷰를 통해 주식시장만큼 훌륭한 경제학자는 없다며 경기를 예측하기 좋은 주식시장 지표 및 다른 몇가지 지표를 언급함. 이에 따르면 중기적으로 여전한 침체 위험이 있지만, 단기적으론 침체 위험을 피해 있는 것으로 보임. 하나씩 소개 하자면, i) 주택, 자동차, 소매판매와 같은 경기민감주가 전체 지수보다 상대성과 우위를 기록 중이며, ii) 장단기 금리 차이가 역전 후 다시 가팔라질 때 발생하는 침체 징후를 포착하는데 유용한 초과유동성 또한 계속 하락 중임. 초과 유동성은 장단기 금리차이와 일치하는 방향으로 선행함. iii) 끝으로 금액기준 미국 물류의 65%를 차지하는 트럭 운송의 활황을 짐작해볼 수 있는 트럭 판매는 승용차 판매와 함께 다시 상승함.
The risk of a near-term recession is easing, according to an indicator based on the thinking of renowned investor Stanley Druckenmiller. That reduces the immediate threat to equities, but any respite will be temporary as the risk of a recession by the middle half of next year remains very high. Stan Druckenmiller has an enviable record, achieving average annual returns of 30% for 25 consecutive years. “The inside of the stock market is the best economist I know,” said Druckenmiller in a 2018 interview. The behavior of highly cyclical sectors, such as housing, autos and retail, versus the market gauge how likely the economy is to tip into recession. This methodology helped him correctly predict the last four recessions before 2020. Near-term recession risk is likely to be low while such highly cyclical sectors are managing to outperform in aggregate – especially given these sectors are among the most interest-rate sensitive. The curve (2s10s) in the US continues to invert to levels not seen since the early 1980s, suggesting a recession is indeed on the cards. A more imminent sign is when the yield curve begins to steepen. And of that there is little sign. One of the few indicators to lead the yield curve itself is US excess liquidity (the difference between real money growth and economic growth). It has yet to turn up, anticipating no significant re-steepening of the curve in the near future. Similarly, truck sales - an excellent leading gauge of economic activity, with 65% of the dollar value of North American freight moved by trucks - had been falling. Combined with auto sales, they had hit levels that had previously always preceded a recession. But truck and auto sales have definitively bounced and are now growing at 25% a year.
The risk of a near-term recession is easing, according to an indicator based on the thinking of renowned investor Stanley Druckenmiller. That reduces the immediate threat to equities, but any respite will be temporary as the risk of a recession by the middle half of next year remains very high. Stan Druckenmiller has an enviable record, achieving average annual returns of 30% for 25 consecutive years. “The inside of the stock market is the best economist I know,” said Druckenmiller in a 2018 interview. The behavior of highly cyclical sectors, such as housing, autos and retail, versus the market gauge how likely the economy is to tip into recession. This methodology helped him correctly predict the last four recessions before 2020. Near-term recession risk is likely to be low while such highly cyclical sectors are managing to outperform in aggregate – especially given these sectors are among the most interest-rate sensitive. The curve (2s10s) in the US continues to invert to levels not seen since the early 1980s, suggesting a recession is indeed on the cards. A more imminent sign is when the yield curve begins to steepen. And of that there is little sign. One of the few indicators to lead the yield curve itself is US excess liquidity (the difference between real money growth and economic growth). It has yet to turn up, anticipating no significant re-steepening of the curve in the near future. Similarly, truck sales - an excellent leading gauge of economic activity, with 65% of the dollar value of North American freight moved by trucks - had been falling. Combined with auto sales, they had hit levels that had previously always preceded a recession. But truck and auto sales have definitively bounced and are now growing at 25% a year.
Bottom-line: 블룸버그 인터뷰를 통해 한국은행 총재는 2%대의 인플레이션으로 통제가 되고 있다는 강력한 신호를 보기 전에 통화정책 선회를 언급하는 것은 시기상조라 함. 목요일 금리인상을 통해 현재 3.5%로 예상되는 최종금리까지 25bp 밑으로 다가왔고, 7명의 의사결정자 중 최소 4명이 3.5% 혹은 그 이하를 현재 인상주기의 끝으로 보고 있기 때문에 물가안정이 최우선 목표임을 다시 한 번 강조함. 총재 본인이 생각하는 최종금리를 밝히진 않고, 다른 의사결정자들의 생각을 존중하지만, 그들이 최종금리에 대한 생각을 바꾸게 되도 놀랍진 않을 것이라 답함.
The Bank of Korea needs to see “strong” signs that inflation is under control before discussing any prospect of a pivot away from policy tightening, Governor Rhee Chang-yong said Friday. The BOK came closer to the end of its tightening hike cycle when it raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter-percentage-point to 3.25% on Thursday. At least four of the seven-member board favor the rate peaking at 3.5% or less. A variety of factors will help determine the course of policy, including Federal Reserve decisions, Covid policies in China and credit-market conditions in Korea, Rhee said in an interview with Bloomberg TV’s Kathleen Hays. Rhee added that he wouldn’t be surprised if some board members changed their mind over the terminal rate. He declined to provide his own forecast, adding that he respected the board’s view. It’s “premature” to discuss any rate cuts and the BOK will need strong evidence of inflation slowing to its mid-term target of a 2% range before the board can discuss the potential for easing policy, he said. The BOK has delivered a total of 2.75 percentage points of rate hikes since August 2021, including two half-point moves. The tightening helped Korea position itself earlier than most nations in the fight against asset bubbles and inflationary pressures. However, the central bank’s faster-than-usual tightening in recent months has fueled credit risks triggered by the default of a local government-backed developer.
The Bank of Korea needs to see “strong” signs that inflation is under control before discussing any prospect of a pivot away from policy tightening, Governor Rhee Chang-yong said Friday. The BOK came closer to the end of its tightening hike cycle when it raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter-percentage-point to 3.25% on Thursday. At least four of the seven-member board favor the rate peaking at 3.5% or less. A variety of factors will help determine the course of policy, including Federal Reserve decisions, Covid policies in China and credit-market conditions in Korea, Rhee said in an interview with Bloomberg TV’s Kathleen Hays. Rhee added that he wouldn’t be surprised if some board members changed their mind over the terminal rate. He declined to provide his own forecast, adding that he respected the board’s view. It’s “premature” to discuss any rate cuts and the BOK will need strong evidence of inflation slowing to its mid-term target of a 2% range before the board can discuss the potential for easing policy, he said. The BOK has delivered a total of 2.75 percentage points of rate hikes since August 2021, including two half-point moves. The tightening helped Korea position itself earlier than most nations in the fight against asset bubbles and inflationary pressures. However, the central bank’s faster-than-usual tightening in recent months has fueled credit risks triggered by the default of a local government-backed developer.
Docent: 11월 북아시아 주식시장의 강세에 대한 도슨트입니다. 이번 달 대만 주식시장에 외국인이 6개월 만에 유입, 금액 또한 58억달러로 15년래 최고치를 기록했고, 한국 시장 또한 2개월 연속 20억 달러 이상의 순매수를 기록할 것으로 보입니다. 홍콩 주식시장은 11월 약 20% 상승하며 아시아 및 전세계 다른 지수보다 우월한 성과를 거뒀습니다. 중국에 대한 높은 의존도로 비참한 한 해를 보냈던 홍콩, 한국, 대만과 독립적 소비와 원자재 중심국인 인도네시아와 인도의 질주가 익숙했던 투자자들에게 예상 밖의 움직임이 아닐 수 없습니다. 남아시아에서 북아시아로의 급격한 자금이동은 중국의 바이러스 억제 정책의 점진적 완화에 따른 경제 재개 기대감, 부실 우려에 놓인 부동산에 대한 정책 지원, 그리고 중국과 미국 간 갈등 완화에 따른 반도체 제조업 긴장 완화에 기인합니다. 다수의 투자은행들이 내년은 남아시아 비중을 축소하고 북아시아 비중을 높일 것을 권고하고 있습니다.
The nascent revival in North Asian equities is being touted as the start of a potential bull run as bets for China’s gradual reopening as well as the bottoming out of the chip industry intensify. Strategists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. expect Asia’s equity leadership to shift from Southeast Asia and India to markets like China and Korea next year, while Societe Generale SA says Taiwan’s tech-heavy market is also at an inflection point. Jefferies Financial Group Inc. has echoed similar views. Stocks listed in Hong Kong as well as Korea and Taiwan have languished for most of the year owing to their heavy reliance on China’s economy, which has been crimped by stringent Covid controls and a property crisis. Meanwhile, domestic-demand driven southern markets of Indonesia and India boasted resilience. The tables have turned this month after a slew of positive policy moves by Beijing. “Of concern to us is that Southeast Asia is beginning to underperform in the last few weeks, as investors rotate back into North Asia,” said Alexander Redman, chief equity strategist at CLSA. “Indonesia, as a defensive, domestically-orientated commodity exporter, was a logical refuge to ride out the equity storm,” he said, adding that the market will be “less favored as investors reengage some deep value cyclical exposure in North Asia.”. Key equity gauges in Hong Kong have rallied about 20% in November, easily topping the rest of Asia and major global peers, as China urged more targeted Covid restrictions and boosted policy support for the real estate sector. Foreigners have piled $5.8 billion into Taiwan stocks this month, on track for the first inflows in six months and the biggest in 15 years. Net purchases of Korean shares are set to exceed $2 billion for a second straight month. In contrast, Indonesia’s market -- once investors’ favorite as an inflation hedge -- is flat in November, and poised to see monthly flows turn negative for the first time since July. Investors are also more wary about valuations in India, where benchmarks recently hit record highs, with Goldman Sachs expecting the market to relatively underperform in 2023. “Any positive catalysts such as a potential China re-opening and policy support, lowering of geopolitical tensions or tech cycle bottoming is likely to drive a sharp rerating” of North Asian markets, Jefferies strategists led by Desh Peramunetilleke wrote in a note. The brokerage is overweight Hong Kong, China, Korea and Taiwan, neutral on Indonesia and underweight India.
The nascent revival in North Asian equities is being touted as the start of a potential bull run as bets for China’s gradual reopening as well as the bottoming out of the chip industry intensify. Strategists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. expect Asia’s equity leadership to shift from Southeast Asia and India to markets like China and Korea next year, while Societe Generale SA says Taiwan’s tech-heavy market is also at an inflection point. Jefferies Financial Group Inc. has echoed similar views. Stocks listed in Hong Kong as well as Korea and Taiwan have languished for most of the year owing to their heavy reliance on China’s economy, which has been crimped by stringent Covid controls and a property crisis. Meanwhile, domestic-demand driven southern markets of Indonesia and India boasted resilience. The tables have turned this month after a slew of positive policy moves by Beijing. “Of concern to us is that Southeast Asia is beginning to underperform in the last few weeks, as investors rotate back into North Asia,” said Alexander Redman, chief equity strategist at CLSA. “Indonesia, as a defensive, domestically-orientated commodity exporter, was a logical refuge to ride out the equity storm,” he said, adding that the market will be “less favored as investors reengage some deep value cyclical exposure in North Asia.”. Key equity gauges in Hong Kong have rallied about 20% in November, easily topping the rest of Asia and major global peers, as China urged more targeted Covid restrictions and boosted policy support for the real estate sector. Foreigners have piled $5.8 billion into Taiwan stocks this month, on track for the first inflows in six months and the biggest in 15 years. Net purchases of Korean shares are set to exceed $2 billion for a second straight month. In contrast, Indonesia’s market -- once investors’ favorite as an inflation hedge -- is flat in November, and poised to see monthly flows turn negative for the first time since July. Investors are also more wary about valuations in India, where benchmarks recently hit record highs, with Goldman Sachs expecting the market to relatively underperform in 2023. “Any positive catalysts such as a potential China re-opening and policy support, lowering of geopolitical tensions or tech cycle bottoming is likely to drive a sharp rerating” of North Asian markets, Jefferies strategists led by Desh Peramunetilleke wrote in a note. The brokerage is overweight Hong Kong, China, Korea and Taiwan, neutral on Indonesia and underweight India.
Bottom-line: 중앙은행의 지속적인 긴축에도 불구하고 11월은 주식과 채권 모두 강세를 보였음. 이번 달 마지막 주에 12월 주요 지표 중 고용이 금요일에 발표되기 때문에 월말을 기준하는 수요일에 포트폴리오를 재조정 하려는 욕구가 커질 수 있음. 뿐만 아니라 12월에 발표되는 고용과 인플레이션 지표가 예상을 상회할 경우 올해의 마지막 통화정책회의에서 시장의 기대와 다른 결말이 나올 수 있으므로, 현재까지 거둔 이익을 실현하고자 하는 유혹도 있을 것임.
November is proving to be a very buoyant month for assets of all stripes, with bonds and equities rallying into the teeth of a barrage of continued global central bank tightening. The strong gains could set up a spicy final week, given the month-end on Wednesday could motivate plenty of position squaring and rebalancing before the first of December’s three major event risks lands on Friday in non-farm payrolls. The temptation could be there for some to take profits off the table in case robust jobs and inflation numbers create the potential for surprises at the final Fed meeting of the year.
November is proving to be a very buoyant month for assets of all stripes, with bonds and equities rallying into the teeth of a barrage of continued global central bank tightening. The strong gains could set up a spicy final week, given the month-end on Wednesday could motivate plenty of position squaring and rebalancing before the first of December’s three major event risks lands on Friday in non-farm payrolls. The temptation could be there for some to take profits off the table in case robust jobs and inflation numbers create the potential for surprises at the final Fed meeting of the year.
Bottom-line: 한국은행 총재는 일본과 같이 고령화 사회에 경제를 부양하는 방법으로 재정정책이나 통화정책을 사용해선 안된다고 주장함. 성장이 둔화될 때 재정정책을 사용해 경기를 부양하고, 물가가 낮을 때 통화정책을 써 인플레이션을 만들자는 쉬운 말들은 모두 실패했다면서 구조적 변화를 이뤄야 한다고 함. 이를 위해 출산율이 높아질 수 있는 환경을 만들어야 하며, 여성의 노동 참여율을 높이고, 외국인 근로자를 적극 활용하는 등 고통이 수반되더라도 구조적인 변화를 시작해야 한다고 함.
South Korea should avoid following Japan’s lead of using fiscal and monetary stimulus to combat the challenges of an aging economy, central bank Governor Rhee Chang-yong said, urging reforms instead to boost fertility. Aging is a rising concern in the developed world and Korea is among the hardest-hit together with Japan. South Korea shattered its own record for the world’s lowest fertility rate last year, adding to long-term pressure on policy makers to keep interest rates low and fiscal stimulus ample to boost growth. “It’s easier to say ‘let’s use the fiscal policy to stimulate the economy if growth is going down, let’s use the loose monetary policy to increase the inflation rate,” Rhee said in an interview. “It all failed.”. Korea should instead embark on long-delayed structural reforms, even though they may be painful, while increasing female labor participation, improving the education system and utilizing foreign workers more effectively, the Bank of Korea governor said Friday.
South Korea should avoid following Japan’s lead of using fiscal and monetary stimulus to combat the challenges of an aging economy, central bank Governor Rhee Chang-yong said, urging reforms instead to boost fertility. Aging is a rising concern in the developed world and Korea is among the hardest-hit together with Japan. South Korea shattered its own record for the world’s lowest fertility rate last year, adding to long-term pressure on policy makers to keep interest rates low and fiscal stimulus ample to boost growth. “It’s easier to say ‘let’s use the fiscal policy to stimulate the economy if growth is going down, let’s use the loose monetary policy to increase the inflation rate,” Rhee said in an interview. “It all failed.”. Korea should instead embark on long-delayed structural reforms, even though they may be painful, while increasing female labor participation, improving the education system and utilizing foreign workers more effectively, the Bank of Korea governor said Friday.
Bottom-line: 테슬라 모델 Y는 올해 가장 많이 판매 된 자동차 모델 5위 안에 들었으며, 순위에서 유일한 전기차임. 올해 9개월 간 50만대를 판매했지만, 당신이 어느 국가에 거주하는지에 따라 이 차를 소유하는데 드는 비용은 막대한 차이를 보였음. 중국의 경우 최종 가격 인하를 기준할 때 미국 판매가의 절반을 가까스로 넘을 정도로 저렴하지만, 싱가폴은 세계에서 가장 비싼 값을 줘야 모델 Y를 구매할 수 있음. 심지어 이 가격은 부대 비용을 제외했으며, 이를 포함할 경우 판매가의 두 배가 될 수도 있음. 아래 차트는 테슬라 모델 Y의 공식 홈페이지 최저 가격을 기준해서 비교한 내용임.
Tesla Inc.’s Model Y has been a smash-hit worldwide -- on track to rank among the top five best-selling models this year and the only electric car to make the cut. More than 500,000 were snapped up in the first nine months, but depending on which country you live in, you may be forking out vastly different sums. Mainland China is the world’s cheapest place to buy a Model Y. After last month’s price cuts, the Model Y starts at 288,900 yuan ($40,500), slightly over half the US retail price. At the other end of the spectrum, Singapore is the world’s most expensive place to own a Tesla: getting the four-door SUV in the island state will set you back a hefty S$142,471 ($103,800) -- and that’s before excise and registration duties, which can double the overall price tag. Bloomberg compiled the most and least expensive places to buy a Model Y, based on the starting cash price shown on Tesla’s official website for each country and region.
Tesla Inc.’s Model Y has been a smash-hit worldwide -- on track to rank among the top five best-selling models this year and the only electric car to make the cut. More than 500,000 were snapped up in the first nine months, but depending on which country you live in, you may be forking out vastly different sums. Mainland China is the world’s cheapest place to buy a Model Y. After last month’s price cuts, the Model Y starts at 288,900 yuan ($40,500), slightly over half the US retail price. At the other end of the spectrum, Singapore is the world’s most expensive place to own a Tesla: getting the four-door SUV in the island state will set you back a hefty S$142,471 ($103,800) -- and that’s before excise and registration duties, which can double the overall price tag. Bloomberg compiled the most and least expensive places to buy a Model Y, based on the starting cash price shown on Tesla’s official website for each country and region.