Bottom-line: 중앙은행의 지속적인 긴축에도 불구하고 11월은 주식과 채권 모두 강세를 보였음. 이번 달 마지막 주에 12월 주요 지표 중 고용이 금요일에 발표되기 때문에 월말을 기준하는 수요일에 포트폴리오를 재조정 하려는 욕구가 커질 수 있음. 뿐만 아니라 12월에 발표되는 고용과 인플레이션 지표가 예상을 상회할 경우 올해의 마지막 통화정책회의에서 시장의 기대와 다른 결말이 나올 수 있으므로, 현재까지 거둔 이익을 실현하고자 하는 유혹도 있을 것임.
November is proving to be a very buoyant month for assets of all stripes, with bonds and equities rallying into the teeth of a barrage of continued global central bank tightening. The strong gains could set up a spicy final week, given the month-end on Wednesday could motivate plenty of position squaring and rebalancing before the first of December’s three major event risks lands on Friday in non-farm payrolls. The temptation could be there for some to take profits off the table in case robust jobs and inflation numbers create the potential for surprises at the final Fed meeting of the year.
November is proving to be a very buoyant month for assets of all stripes, with bonds and equities rallying into the teeth of a barrage of continued global central bank tightening. The strong gains could set up a spicy final week, given the month-end on Wednesday could motivate plenty of position squaring and rebalancing before the first of December’s three major event risks lands on Friday in non-farm payrolls. The temptation could be there for some to take profits off the table in case robust jobs and inflation numbers create the potential for surprises at the final Fed meeting of the year.
Bottom-line: 한국은행 총재는 일본과 같이 고령화 사회에 경제를 부양하는 방법으로 재정정책이나 통화정책을 사용해선 안된다고 주장함. 성장이 둔화될 때 재정정책을 사용해 경기를 부양하고, 물가가 낮을 때 통화정책을 써 인플레이션을 만들자는 쉬운 말들은 모두 실패했다면서 구조적 변화를 이뤄야 한다고 함. 이를 위해 출산율이 높아질 수 있는 환경을 만들어야 하며, 여성의 노동 참여율을 높이고, 외국인 근로자를 적극 활용하는 등 고통이 수반되더라도 구조적인 변화를 시작해야 한다고 함.
South Korea should avoid following Japan’s lead of using fiscal and monetary stimulus to combat the challenges of an aging economy, central bank Governor Rhee Chang-yong said, urging reforms instead to boost fertility. Aging is a rising concern in the developed world and Korea is among the hardest-hit together with Japan. South Korea shattered its own record for the world’s lowest fertility rate last year, adding to long-term pressure on policy makers to keep interest rates low and fiscal stimulus ample to boost growth. “It’s easier to say ‘let’s use the fiscal policy to stimulate the economy if growth is going down, let’s use the loose monetary policy to increase the inflation rate,” Rhee said in an interview. “It all failed.”. Korea should instead embark on long-delayed structural reforms, even though they may be painful, while increasing female labor participation, improving the education system and utilizing foreign workers more effectively, the Bank of Korea governor said Friday.
South Korea should avoid following Japan’s lead of using fiscal and monetary stimulus to combat the challenges of an aging economy, central bank Governor Rhee Chang-yong said, urging reforms instead to boost fertility. Aging is a rising concern in the developed world and Korea is among the hardest-hit together with Japan. South Korea shattered its own record for the world’s lowest fertility rate last year, adding to long-term pressure on policy makers to keep interest rates low and fiscal stimulus ample to boost growth. “It’s easier to say ‘let’s use the fiscal policy to stimulate the economy if growth is going down, let’s use the loose monetary policy to increase the inflation rate,” Rhee said in an interview. “It all failed.”. Korea should instead embark on long-delayed structural reforms, even though they may be painful, while increasing female labor participation, improving the education system and utilizing foreign workers more effectively, the Bank of Korea governor said Friday.
Bottom-line: 테슬라 모델 Y는 올해 가장 많이 판매 된 자동차 모델 5위 안에 들었으며, 순위에서 유일한 전기차임. 올해 9개월 간 50만대를 판매했지만, 당신이 어느 국가에 거주하는지에 따라 이 차를 소유하는데 드는 비용은 막대한 차이를 보였음. 중국의 경우 최종 가격 인하를 기준할 때 미국 판매가의 절반을 가까스로 넘을 정도로 저렴하지만, 싱가폴은 세계에서 가장 비싼 값을 줘야 모델 Y를 구매할 수 있음. 심지어 이 가격은 부대 비용을 제외했으며, 이를 포함할 경우 판매가의 두 배가 될 수도 있음. 아래 차트는 테슬라 모델 Y의 공식 홈페이지 최저 가격을 기준해서 비교한 내용임.
Tesla Inc.’s Model Y has been a smash-hit worldwide -- on track to rank among the top five best-selling models this year and the only electric car to make the cut. More than 500,000 were snapped up in the first nine months, but depending on which country you live in, you may be forking out vastly different sums. Mainland China is the world’s cheapest place to buy a Model Y. After last month’s price cuts, the Model Y starts at 288,900 yuan ($40,500), slightly over half the US retail price. At the other end of the spectrum, Singapore is the world’s most expensive place to own a Tesla: getting the four-door SUV in the island state will set you back a hefty S$142,471 ($103,800) -- and that’s before excise and registration duties, which can double the overall price tag. Bloomberg compiled the most and least expensive places to buy a Model Y, based on the starting cash price shown on Tesla’s official website for each country and region.
Tesla Inc.’s Model Y has been a smash-hit worldwide -- on track to rank among the top five best-selling models this year and the only electric car to make the cut. More than 500,000 were snapped up in the first nine months, but depending on which country you live in, you may be forking out vastly different sums. Mainland China is the world’s cheapest place to buy a Model Y. After last month’s price cuts, the Model Y starts at 288,900 yuan ($40,500), slightly over half the US retail price. At the other end of the spectrum, Singapore is the world’s most expensive place to own a Tesla: getting the four-door SUV in the island state will set you back a hefty S$142,471 ($103,800) -- and that’s before excise and registration duties, which can double the overall price tag. Bloomberg compiled the most and least expensive places to buy a Model Y, based on the starting cash price shown on Tesla’s official website for each country and region.
Bottom-line: 토마스 바킨은 존 윌리엄스, 제임스 블라드에 이어 중앙은행이 금리인상 폭을 낮추는데 동의하지만, 더 오랜 기간에 걸쳐 예상했던 것보다 높은 최종 정책금리를 유지할 수 있다는 주장에 합류함. 이는 인플레이션 수준이 높은 상태로 유지되면서 불과 몇달 전에 생각했던 예상 금리경로를 더 높여야한다 생각이 들 정도며, 다른 중앙은행 인사들이 인플레이션이 정책금리를 더 높은 수준에 이르게 한다거나, 금융시장이 중앙은행의 추가 금리인상 필요성을 간과하고 있단 발언과 상통함.
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin said he favored slowing the pace of interest rate hikes in recognition of past aggressive moves, while adding that the peak of rates may need to be held for longer at potentially higher levels to dampen inflation. “I’m very supportive of a path that is slower, probably longer and potentially higher than where we were before,” Barkin said in an interview Monday with Kathleen Hays on Bloomberg Television. He added that he expects peak rates “certainly” to be higher than he thought a couple months ago. Fed officials have signaled they plan to raise their benchmark rate by 50 basis points at their final meeting of the year on Dec. 13-14, after four successive 75 basis-point hikes. But policy makers could also raise their forecasts for how high interest rates will eventually go when they update their economic projections during the meeting in the face of persistently high inflation. Barkin is the latest Fed official to endorse additional tightening to reduce inflation near a 40-year high. New York Fed President John Williams said earlier Monday that higher inflation would call for a “modestly higher path for policy” and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard separately said financial markets were “underpricing” the likelihood that the Fed would need to be more aggressive.
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin said he favored slowing the pace of interest rate hikes in recognition of past aggressive moves, while adding that the peak of rates may need to be held for longer at potentially higher levels to dampen inflation. “I’m very supportive of a path that is slower, probably longer and potentially higher than where we were before,” Barkin said in an interview Monday with Kathleen Hays on Bloomberg Television. He added that he expects peak rates “certainly” to be higher than he thought a couple months ago. Fed officials have signaled they plan to raise their benchmark rate by 50 basis points at their final meeting of the year on Dec. 13-14, after four successive 75 basis-point hikes. But policy makers could also raise their forecasts for how high interest rates will eventually go when they update their economic projections during the meeting in the face of persistently high inflation. Barkin is the latest Fed official to endorse additional tightening to reduce inflation near a 40-year high. New York Fed President John Williams said earlier Monday that higher inflation would call for a “modestly higher path for policy” and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard separately said financial markets were “underpricing” the likelihood that the Fed would need to be more aggressive.
Bottom-line: 중국 공식 대변인은 대중의 합리적인 바이러스 억제 정책 요구에 대응해야 한다면서, 과도한 바이러스 억제 정책을 지양하고, 바이러스 확산에 따른 다수의 불편을 줄이도록 하는 방향을 지시함.
China’s local officials must respond to and resolve “reasonable” Covid requests from residents in a timely manner, Mi Feng, spokesman for the National Health Commission, says at a briefing. Local officials must keep avoiding excessive Covid curbs. China must reduce inconvenience caused by the Covid outbreak among public.
China’s local officials must respond to and resolve “reasonable” Covid requests from residents in a timely manner, Mi Feng, spokesman for the National Health Commission, says at a briefing. Local officials must keep avoiding excessive Covid curbs. China must reduce inconvenience caused by the Covid outbreak among public.
Bottom-line: 스페인 물가가 전년 대비 6.6% 상승한 것으로 발표되며 전월 7.3% 상승과 예상치 7.1% 상승을 모두 하회함. 의류를 제외 한 전기료, 유가 하락에 기인함. 다만, 정책 입안자 입장이서는 변동성이 큰 에너지 및 식품을 제외 한 핵심 물가지표는 상승해 여전히 경계를 해야 한다고 함.
Spanish inflation eased for a fourth month and by more than expected, reinforcing expectations for a wider slowdown in European prices and offering some comfort to the government whose aid measures have brought record budget spending. Consumer prices advanced by 6.6% from a year ago in November, down from the previous month’s 7.3% advance, the statistics institute said Tuesday. That’s below the 7.1% median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The slowdown was driven by declines in electricity and fuel costs and an only moderate rise in clothing. A gauge of underlying prices, however, which excludes volatile items like energy and food, ticked up to 6.3%. Such measures may take on more significance even as headline inflation rates across the region start to ease, according to Vice President Luis de Guindos.
Spanish inflation eased for a fourth month and by more than expected, reinforcing expectations for a wider slowdown in European prices and offering some comfort to the government whose aid measures have brought record budget spending. Consumer prices advanced by 6.6% from a year ago in November, down from the previous month’s 7.3% advance, the statistics institute said Tuesday. That’s below the 7.1% median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The slowdown was driven by declines in electricity and fuel costs and an only moderate rise in clothing. A gauge of underlying prices, however, which excludes volatile items like energy and food, ticked up to 6.3%. Such measures may take on more significance even as headline inflation rates across the region start to ease, according to Vice President Luis de Guindos.
Docent: 중국의 바이러스 관련 정책 발표에 대해 그 반응이 사뭇 다른 이유를 도슨트 하고자 함. i) 접종: 노년층에 대한 백신 접종을 강조하는데, 특히 접종을 통해 본인의 건강은 스스로 책임에 있다고 넘기는 형태라 볼 수 있음. ii) 위독성: 변이 바이러스의 위험에 대해 경미함을 강조하면서 경제재개 시 대중이 바이러스에 대해 가질 공포를 축소시키려는 의도임. iii) 불편: 투자자들이 우려하는 지속적이고 강압적인 정부 태도의 변화를 추측케 불편을 최소화 할 것을 강조 했음. iv) 과도한 조치: 중앙정부의 승인이 필요하며, 대중이 원하는 합리적 범위에서의 봉쇄를 기간과 범위를 제한해서 하도록 함. 이러한 약간의 어조 변화에 투자자들은 환영하고 있음.
Let me unpack that China Covid press briefing. Vaccinations: There was a focus on the vaccination of the elderly. This may seem obvious but it’s one of the major obstacles to China’s reopening. While there was nothing about a vaccine mandate, we heard strong words urging older residents to take responsibility for their own health. Virulence: One spokesperson detailed the science showing omicron and its sub-variants aren’t as dangerous. Lowering the population’s fear of the virus is an important step toward a panic-free reopening. There was also a bit of self-congratulatory talk around China’s low death rate -- claiming victory over the pandemic also plays into how Beijing will clear the path to move on. Inconvenience: Health officials said it was paramount to minimize the impact caused by the Covid outbreak. This is somewhat of a reiteration but to investors it suggests the government is concerned about the anxiety caused by its pandemic response. Excessive measures: The spokespeople said some local governments are taking lockdowns too far, imposing measures without prior approval from the central government. Restrictions should be limited in scale and length, and local authorities must respond quickly to “reasonable” requests from residents. If not they will be named and shamed. The key to tracking shifts in China’s Covid Zero policy will come from official tone, language and signaling -- reading the tea leaves might be a high-risk bet but investors seem happy with what they got today.
Let me unpack that China Covid press briefing. Vaccinations: There was a focus on the vaccination of the elderly. This may seem obvious but it’s one of the major obstacles to China’s reopening. While there was nothing about a vaccine mandate, we heard strong words urging older residents to take responsibility for their own health. Virulence: One spokesperson detailed the science showing omicron and its sub-variants aren’t as dangerous. Lowering the population’s fear of the virus is an important step toward a panic-free reopening. There was also a bit of self-congratulatory talk around China’s low death rate -- claiming victory over the pandemic also plays into how Beijing will clear the path to move on. Inconvenience: Health officials said it was paramount to minimize the impact caused by the Covid outbreak. This is somewhat of a reiteration but to investors it suggests the government is concerned about the anxiety caused by its pandemic response. Excessive measures: The spokespeople said some local governments are taking lockdowns too far, imposing measures without prior approval from the central government. Restrictions should be limited in scale and length, and local authorities must respond quickly to “reasonable” requests from residents. If not they will be named and shamed. The key to tracking shifts in China’s Covid Zero policy will come from official tone, language and signaling -- reading the tea leaves might be a high-risk bet but investors seem happy with what they got today.
Bottom-line: 중앙은행 인사들이 내년에도 정책을 강화할 수 있단 발언을 했음에도 불구, 시장은 전혀 동요하지 않음을 유로 달러 선물 변동성에서 알 수 있음. 5거래일 동안 18틱 범위에서 거래되며 2월 이후 최저 변동을 보였기 때문임. 이는 변동성을 다시 키웠던 9월 물가지표와 통화정책회의를 앞뒀던 때의 진정 상태와 유사한데, 중앙은행의 정책이 충분히 가격에 반영되었거나 변동성이 이 추세대로 더 낮아질 것을 기대한다면, 과거 형태를 한 번 되살펴 볼 가치가 있음.
Monday saw both Williams and Bullard reiterate the need for restrictive policy throughout 2023, at this point these sorts of comments have relatively little impact on market pricing. Indeed, rate expectations are more stable than they have been for virtually all of this year, with EDM3 posting a 5-day trading range of just 18 ticks-- the lowest since early February. Granted, last week’s holiday trading conditions might have had something to do with that, as well as a dearth of important economic data. Still, it is worth noting that rate expectations also hit a lull in early September before CPI and the Fed announcement re-kindled volatility. That’s perhaps something to remember before concluding that the Fed is “fully priced” and that volatility across asset markets can now decline further on a trend basis.
Monday saw both Williams and Bullard reiterate the need for restrictive policy throughout 2023, at this point these sorts of comments have relatively little impact on market pricing. Indeed, rate expectations are more stable than they have been for virtually all of this year, with EDM3 posting a 5-day trading range of just 18 ticks-- the lowest since early February. Granted, last week’s holiday trading conditions might have had something to do with that, as well as a dearth of important economic data. Still, it is worth noting that rate expectations also hit a lull in early September before CPI and the Fed announcement re-kindled volatility. That’s perhaps something to remember before concluding that the Fed is “fully priced” and that volatility across asset markets can now decline further on a trend basis.
Bottom-line: 미국 상장 중국 주식이 이번 달 30% 이상 상승하면서 전월의 25% 하락을 매섭게 회복했을 뿐 아니라, 2001년 집계 이후 최고의 월간 수익률을 기록했음. 이는 중국이 11월 11일 바이러스 억제정책 완화에 대한 지침이 시작 된 이후 전일 고령자에 대한 백신 접종을 강화하겠다고 구체적인 내용을 하나씩 밝히면서 투자자들의 긍정적 심리를 이끌었기 때문임. 이와 같은 바이러스 억제정책 완화 뿐만 아니라 경제 및 부동산 관련 지원 정책까지 발표됐고, 예상보다 덜 나쁜 성장 기업들의 실적도 전세계 투자자들이 중국 주식에 대한 보다 긍정적 시각을 가지게 하는데 도움이 되었음. 모건스탠리 전략가는 경제재개를 향하는 길이 순탄치는 않겠지만 그 경로를 이탈하진 않을 것이라고 보고서를 통해 밝혔음.
US-listed Chinese stocks are on track for the best month ever as investors grow more encouraged about a potential shift away from the strict pandemic policies that have slowed the economy. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index surged 5.1% on Tuesday after Beijing vowed to speed up Covid shots for the elderly, which is seen as a critical step toward allowing the nation to abandon its Covid Zero policy. The gain leaves the benchmark of US-listed Chinese shares up 30% this month, a dramatic turnaround from October’s 25% plunge and the biggest monthly advance since the data begin in 2001. Chinese stocks in Hong Kong also rose, pushing the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up over 6% Tuesday and putting it on track for the best month since 2003. Global investors have become more positive about Chinese equities as Beijing pares back some Covid restrictions and puts forward measures to support the economy and the housing sector. Better-than-expected earnings report from major Internet companies have also helped. “We think the path towards reopening is set to be bumpy but not derailing,” Morgan Stanley strategist Laura Wang wrote in a note to clients. The direction was established by the Nov. 11 relaxation of Covid guidelines and reinforced by the latest statement detailing the plan for boosting vaccinations among the elderly, according to the note.
US-listed Chinese stocks are on track for the best month ever as investors grow more encouraged about a potential shift away from the strict pandemic policies that have slowed the economy. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index surged 5.1% on Tuesday after Beijing vowed to speed up Covid shots for the elderly, which is seen as a critical step toward allowing the nation to abandon its Covid Zero policy. The gain leaves the benchmark of US-listed Chinese shares up 30% this month, a dramatic turnaround from October’s 25% plunge and the biggest monthly advance since the data begin in 2001. Chinese stocks in Hong Kong also rose, pushing the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up over 6% Tuesday and putting it on track for the best month since 2003. Global investors have become more positive about Chinese equities as Beijing pares back some Covid restrictions and puts forward measures to support the economy and the housing sector. Better-than-expected earnings report from major Internet companies have also helped. “We think the path towards reopening is set to be bumpy but not derailing,” Morgan Stanley strategist Laura Wang wrote in a note to clients. The direction was established by the Nov. 11 relaxation of Covid guidelines and reinforced by the latest statement detailing the plan for boosting vaccinations among the elderly, according to the note.
Hiring at US companies cooled in November to the slowest pace in nearly two years and wage gains moderated, suggesting employers may be starting to hit the brakes amid a darkening economic outlook.
Bottom-line: 다우산업지수가 9월 저점 대비 20% 이상 상승하며 강세장 영역에 진입했고, 채권시장 거래자들은 중앙은행의 최종금리 예상을 5% 밑으로 낮췄음. 파월 의장은 여전한 인플레이션 불확실성에 따라 50bp라는 금리인상폭 축소보다 추가적인 인상이 얼마나 더 필요한지와 해당 금리수준을 어느 정도까지 유지할지가 보다 중요한 문제라 강조함. 이는 긴축주기가 끝나기엔 더 많은 증거를 필요로 한단 것이나 시장은 예상 된 범위의 발언에 긍정적 가격 반응을 함.
A Fed downshift looks imminent, but the tightening cycle is far from over. Jerome Powell signaled the FOMC will hike by 50 bps next month, and said smaller increases are less important than the questions of how much further to go and for how long. Officials need "substantially more evidence" to ensure prices are moderating, the chair added. "The path ahead for inflation remains highly uncertain." Bond traders dialed back their peak rate expectations to below 5%. Stocks roared back on Powell's comments, pushing the S&P 500 to a two-month high as it notched its longest monthly winning streak since August 2021. The DJIA entered a bull market, rising 20% from its September low.
A Fed downshift looks imminent, but the tightening cycle is far from over. Jerome Powell signaled the FOMC will hike by 50 bps next month, and said smaller increases are less important than the questions of how much further to go and for how long. Officials need "substantially more evidence" to ensure prices are moderating, the chair added. "The path ahead for inflation remains highly uncertain." Bond traders dialed back their peak rate expectations to below 5%. Stocks roared back on Powell's comments, pushing the S&P 500 to a two-month high as it notched its longest monthly winning streak since August 2021. The DJIA entered a bull market, rising 20% from its September low.
Bottom-line: 북경 내 인구 밀집도가 높은 지역에서부터 경미한 증상의 바이러스 환자에 대한 자택격리를 선택할 수 있도록 허용할 수 있다고 함. 비공식적이지만 현재 모든 환자가 시설 격리를 해야 하는 현행에서 완화 된 지침으로 인구 350만명의 차오양 지역에서부터 보다 널리 확대되어 표준이 될 수도 있을 것임.
Beijing will allow some virus-infected people to isolate at home, starting with residents of the city’s most-populous district, a landmark shift that reflects the pressure officials are under from a record outbreak and public opposition to Covid Zero. Low-risk patients can do home isolation for a week if they choose, people familiar with the plans said, dialing back a nationwide policy that has seen everyone with Covid sent to government quarantine sites regardless of severity, to halt transmission chains. The shift has already begun in Chaoyang district -- home to some 3.5 million people as well as foreign embassies and company offices -- and it will act as an example for other districts to follow, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing an order that’s not yet public.
Beijing will allow some virus-infected people to isolate at home, starting with residents of the city’s most-populous district, a landmark shift that reflects the pressure officials are under from a record outbreak and public opposition to Covid Zero. Low-risk patients can do home isolation for a week if they choose, people familiar with the plans said, dialing back a nationwide policy that has seen everyone with Covid sent to government quarantine sites regardless of severity, to halt transmission chains. The shift has already begun in Chaoyang district -- home to some 3.5 million people as well as foreign embassies and company offices -- and it will act as an example for other districts to follow, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing an order that’s not yet public.