Implication: 중국이 바이러스 억제정책을 완화하기 시작하면서 COVID-19 바이러스의 위험성이 높지 않다는 공식 의견을 지속 강조하고 있음. 일반 독감과 동일한 0.1%의 사망률에 폐에 이르는 손상이 거의 없다는 발언이 이번에 추가되었음. 확진자 수가 줄어드는데 대해서는 그만큼 검사를 받는 사람이 적어 의심을 받지만, 정책의 변화 이후 계속적으로 위험이 높지 않음을 강조하면서 경제재개를 위한 발걸음을 이어가고 있음.
Chinese officials continued to downplay the risks of Covid-19 as restrictions are eased, with a top medical adviser saying the fatality rate from the omicron variant of the virus is in line with influenza. The death rate from omicron is around 0.1%, similar to the common flu, and the infection rarely reaches the lungs, Zhong Nanshan was quoted in an interview with state news agency Xinhua. Most people recover from the variant within seven to 10 days, he said. Zhong’s comments follow the government’s latest line on the coronavirus, which talks down the disease’s dangers as China moves toward exiting its Covid Zero policy. The nation reported 10,514 local infections for Saturday, more than 20% lower than Friday. Doubts have been raised about the accuracy of case numbers because fewer people are being tested.
Chinese officials continued to downplay the risks of Covid-19 as restrictions are eased, with a top medical adviser saying the fatality rate from the omicron variant of the virus is in line with influenza. The death rate from omicron is around 0.1%, similar to the common flu, and the infection rarely reaches the lungs, Zhong Nanshan was quoted in an interview with state news agency Xinhua. Most people recover from the variant within seven to 10 days, he said. Zhong’s comments follow the government’s latest line on the coronavirus, which talks down the disease’s dangers as China moves toward exiting its Covid Zero policy. The nation reported 10,514 local infections for Saturday, more than 20% lower than Friday. Doubts have been raised about the accuracy of case numbers because fewer people are being tested.
US stocks surged after the the New York Fed released consumer survey data showing inflation expectations declined.
Bottom-line: HK Re-open
Hong Kong is scrapping some of its remaining Covid restrictions following China’s rapid shift away from the zero-tolerance approach. The government will remove a ban on international arrivals going to bars or eating at restaurants, and stop requiring people to use a health app to enter venues, Chief Executive John Lee said at a press conference Tuesday. He didn’t mention whether the government will retain the mask mandate.
Hong Kong is scrapping some of its remaining Covid restrictions following China’s rapid shift away from the zero-tolerance approach. The government will remove a ban on international arrivals going to bars or eating at restaurants, and stop requiring people to use a health app to enter venues, Chief Executive John Lee said at a press conference Tuesday. He didn’t mention whether the government will retain the mask mandate.
Wowsers! Look at those stock futures, up 3%. We’re seeing a similar pattern to last month.
Treasury yields fall sharply on the CPI report, with the 2-year down 20bps. Yields were falling heading into CPI, and the data affirm inflation is now in retreat.
Bottom-line: 중앙은행이 내년 금리인상 폭을 25bp로 하는데 자신감을 줄 수 있는 발표가 되었음.
This should give Powell some confidence tomorrow if he had planned on signaling a further step down in the magnitude of rate hikes to 25 basis points in February, after the 50 basis points that’s expected on Wednesday.
This should give Powell some confidence tomorrow if he had planned on signaling a further step down in the magnitude of rate hikes to 25 basis points in February, after the 50 basis points that’s expected on Wednesday.
Bottom-line: 중앙은행의 통화정책이 인플레이션을 통제하고 있다는 의미있는 첫 신호로 해석함.
Lindsay Rosner, multisector portfolio manager at PGIM Fixed Income, says this was an “important piece of the story of rate hikes working.” She calls it the “first really meaningful beat.”
Lindsay Rosner, multisector portfolio manager at PGIM Fixed Income, says this was an “important piece of the story of rate hikes working.” She calls it the “first really meaningful beat.”
Bottom-line: 통화정책회의에서 인플레이션에 대한 실질적인 증거를 찾고 있다고 발언했는데, 2개월 연속 하락이 그에 충분한지 알 수 없지만, 적어도 이에 압박을 받을 것임.
Powell noted at the end of November that he’s looking for “substantially more evidence” to be certain that inflation is actually declining. I don’t know if this second straight month of declines will be enough to meet that standard, but he’ll surely be pressed on that at the briefing.
Powell noted at the end of November that he’s looking for “substantially more evidence” to be certain that inflation is actually declining. I don’t know if this second straight month of declines will be enough to meet that standard, but he’ll surely be pressed on that at the briefing.
US equity futures still in the green, with the contracts tied to the S&P 500 surging as much as 3%, while Nasdaq 100 futures have jumped as much as 4%.
Bottom-line: 물가에도 안도감을 가지니 이제 노동시장으로 시각이 옮겨가는데, 임금이 과열에서 벗어나려면 서비스업과 같이 노동력이 부족한 곳에서 공급이 생겨야 하는데, 이 부분을 어떻게 해소해 나갈지는 여전히 의문임.
That’s a very interesting point from Ellen Zentner on the labor market coming back into focus. One issue there is wages, especially for sectors still experiencing worker shortages, such as services. It’s tough to see how we’re going to have a slowdown in wage growth there, unless something drastically changes with the labor supply.
That’s a very interesting point from Ellen Zentner on the labor market coming back into focus. One issue there is wages, especially for sectors still experiencing worker shortages, such as services. It’s tough to see how we’re going to have a slowdown in wage growth there, unless something drastically changes with the labor supply.
Bottom-line: 물가지표가 발표되기 바로 직전에 대량으로 유입 된 국채매수와 관련하여 사전에 정보가 유출 된 것 아니냔 의문에 그런 일은 있을 수 없다고 공식적으로 답변함. 오히려 시장 참여자들이 사소한 움작임에도 과민하게 반응하고 있다고 지적함.
US government officials said they were not aware of any early leaks of closely watched inflation data Tuesday, following a surge of Treasuries buying that took place seconds before the report was released. President Joe Biden’s press secretary, Karine Jean-Pierre, told reporters she was not aware of any leaks coming out of the White House, and suggested observers were reading too much into the market moves. “I can tell you this: There were no leaks from here,” Jean-Pierre said Tuesday. “I can tell you definitively, or at least I’m not aware of any leaks.”. “People may be reading a little bit too much into this,” she added. Jean-Pierre described the jump in asset prices as “minor market movements.”
US government officials said they were not aware of any early leaks of closely watched inflation data Tuesday, following a surge of Treasuries buying that took place seconds before the report was released. President Joe Biden’s press secretary, Karine Jean-Pierre, told reporters she was not aware of any leaks coming out of the White House, and suggested observers were reading too much into the market moves. “I can tell you this: There were no leaks from here,” Jean-Pierre said Tuesday. “I can tell you definitively, or at least I’m not aware of any leaks.”. “People may be reading a little bit too much into this,” she added. Jean-Pierre described the jump in asset prices as “minor market movements.”
Bottom-line: 모건스탠리는 내년 중국 경제성장률을 기존 5%에서 5.4%로 상향함. 경제재개에 속도를 내고 있을 뿐 아니라 지속적으로 경기를 부양하기 위한 정책을 내놓고 있기 때문에 내년 1분기말까지 경제활동이 올해 6~7월 수준까지 올라올 것이며, 남은 하반기는 바이러스 대확산 이전까지 회복될 것으로 전망했음. 물론 바이러스 확산으로 인해 연 초 생산 및 소비에 영향을 받겠지만, 과거보다 완화 된 관리방침으로 인해 충분히 감당 가능한 영역에 있을 것으로 보았음.
Morgan Stanley economists upgraded their forecast for China’s gross domestic product growth in 2023 on expectations that the rapid reopening from Covid Zero and continued steps to ease policy will boost the economy. The bank raised its projection to 5.4% growth from 5%, expecting that mobility and economic activity will rebound to the levels seen in June and July of this year by the end of the first quarter, economists including Robin Xing wrote in a Tuesday note. They expect a continued recovery to above pre-pandemic levels through the rest of 2023. While economic growth will suffer some near-term pain at the start of the year as Covid infections peak and disrupt production and consumption, risks to the supply chain are likely to be manageable compared to how Covid lockdowns hampered operations, the economists wrote.
Morgan Stanley economists upgraded their forecast for China’s gross domestic product growth in 2023 on expectations that the rapid reopening from Covid Zero and continued steps to ease policy will boost the economy. The bank raised its projection to 5.4% growth from 5%, expecting that mobility and economic activity will rebound to the levels seen in June and July of this year by the end of the first quarter, economists including Robin Xing wrote in a Tuesday note. They expect a continued recovery to above pre-pandemic levels through the rest of 2023. While economic growth will suffer some near-term pain at the start of the year as Covid infections peak and disrupt production and consumption, risks to the supply chain are likely to be manageable compared to how Covid lockdowns hampered operations, the economists wrote.