US retail sales climbed in June by more than forecast in a broad advance, suggesting resilient consumer spending despite decades-high inflation and raising the prospects of an even larger Federal Reserve interest-rate hike this month. The value of overall retail purchases increased 1%, after an upwardly revised 0.1% decline in May, Commerce Department figures showed Friday. The figures aren’t adjusted for inflation.

함의: 높은 인플레이션에도 소비가 매우 강함에 따라 큰 폭의 금리인상에 무게를 더함.

The pandemic bubble in TMT stocks mostly “appears to have corrected, hinting at greater stabilization for broader equities,” Gina Martin Adams, BI’s chief equity strategist, and her colleague Michael Casper wrote in a research note. “The tech sector’s push toward average valuations might signal an impending bottom for the market at large.”

함의: 바이러스 확산기에 발생 한 TMT 버블이 모두 조정된 것으로 보이며, 이는 시장 전반의 바닥을 암시함.

Amid the data dump this morning, investors may be relieved to see the New York Fed Empire Index prices paid gauge dropping to the lowest since February 2021. It remains to be seen how quickly that translates into an overall decline in price growth for consumers-- but nonetheless offers some comfort for markets and the Fed that inflation may be peaking.

함의: 지급 항목의 축소가 2021년 2월 이후 최저로 하락, 얼마나 전반적으로 확산될지 알 수 없으나 물가 변곡점에 희망을 줌.

No, BMW, We Shouldn’t Have to Pay Extra to Heat Our Seats. With temperatures soaring and many Europeans hitting the road for a beach vacation, toasty car seats were until this week blessedly far from most of our minds. Yet suddenly BMW AG finds itself embroiled in blistering row over plans to charge car owners $18 a month to warm their derrières. Reports that the German automaker wants drivers in the UK, France, Germany and elsewhere to purchase a software update unlocking the seat-warming functionality  — which will otherwise remain unavailable, despite all of the necessary hardware already being built into their cars — triggered an immediate online backlash.

함의: 기능을 구현하는 하드웨어는 이미 내장되어있음에도 구독에 따라 락이 걸리는 요금제 발표에 경악.

Stocks climbed after data showed the lowest reading in a year for longer-term inflation expectations, which could ease pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise rates more aggressively.

Walt Disney Co.’s ESPN will raise the price of its streaming service by 43% next month, betting that it can help cover the escalating cost of sports rights without losing subscribers who are grappling with soaring inflation. Starting Aug. 23, the cost of an ESPN+ subnoscription will jump to $9.99 a month from $6.99, or to $99.99 a year from $69.99. ESPN says the price increase reflects the growing amount of live sports and original programming on the streaming service.

함의: 하... 구독료.

"The more I study, the more insatiable do I feel my genius for it to be."

- Ada Lovelace

President Joe Biden said he expects further oil supply increases from Saudi Arabia to help tame fuel costs at home after a landmark meeting with the kingdom’s rulers. Biden’s trip didn’t result in an immediate pledge for a production hike, but US officials said they were confident that Riyadh would lead the OPEC+ alliance to an agreement for a gradual boost. 

함의: 그가 얻은 소득은 확약이 아니라 기약 없는 기대.

The dollar’s relentless rise is threatening to trigger more outflows from Asia’s emerging-market shares, spoiling hopes of the region making a comeback in the second half. A gauge of Asian currencies has slumped to its lowest in more than two years, an ominous sign for equities given their strong relationship with moves in foreign exchange. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan Index has fallen 20% as foreign investors took $71 billion out of stock markets in emerging Asia outside China so far this year, already double the outflows in 2021.

함의: 달러와 증시 간 상관관계가 높은 아시아 증시에서 반년 간 710억 달러의 외국인 자금이 유출, 2021년 연간 유출액의 두 배를 넘어섬.

Division over Russia’s war in Ukraine meant a meeting of Group of 20 finance chiefs ended without the usual communique, though there was incremental progress on issues such as food and energy security. While countries agreed on most of a briefer chair summary released by host nation Indonesia, which included the need to respond to the food and fuel crisis, disagreement over the root cause prevented them for a second time this year from issuing a communique. The war in Ukraine is “an issue they cannot reconcile yet,” said Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati.

함의: G20 회담은 '문제의 근원은 무엇인가?'에서 합의를 보지 못해 올 해 두번째로 성명서를 발표하지 못하고 종료됨.

The International Monetary Fund will cut its global economic growth outlook “substantially” in its next update, as finance chiefs grapple with a shrinking list of options to address the worsening risks. Surging food and energy prices, slowing capital flows to emerging markets, the ongoing pandemic and a slowdown in China make it “much more challenging” for policymakers, Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, the IMF’s director for strategy, policy and review, said at a Sunday panel in Bali, Indonesia. “It’s shock after shock after shock which are really hitting the global economy.” She spoke after the Group of 20 finance ministers and central bank governors ended their meeting on Saturday without reaching a communique, underlining the difficulty in coordinating a global response to surging inflation and recessionary fears. 

함의: IMF가 다음 업데이트에서 세계경제 전망을 실질적으로 하향할 것임.

Wall Street Set for New ETF Gold Rush as Single-Stock Era Begins. The booming world of exchange-traded funds is about to get even more crowded after the very first single-equity ETFs launched Thursday -- despite a torrent of regulatory warnings over their risks while retail investors are still reeling from the crash in speculative trades from crypto to meme stocks. The eight products from AXS Investments look like the start of a coming invasion of amped-up strategies that will seek to enhance or invert the performance of volatile companies, including Tesla Inc., Nvidia Corp. and PayPal Holdings Inc. Another proposed lineup from Toroso Investments offers to layer on a bullish options strategy in order to boost returns. All told, at least 85 more such ETFs are currently planned, according to filings tracked by Bloomberg, covering some 37 companies.

함의: 단 하나의 주식을 대상으로 상승과 하락, 레버리지 베팅이 가능한 'Single stock ETF'가 출시되며, 라인업 대기 중인 유사품도 많음.

Central banks from the euro zone to Japan are about to reveal if they can resist the global urge for aggressive monetary tightening led by the US Federal Reserve. Almost all economists reckon the European Central Bank on Thursday will limit its first interest-rate hike in more than a decade to a mere quarter point, hours after the Bank of Japan keeps its own stimulative stance unchanged. Such outcomes would showcase some of the world’s last bastions of hesitancy in the face of surging inflation. Monetary officials from South Korea to Canada ratcheted up tightening in the past week, while investors began betting on an historic one percentage-point move by the Fed. 

함의: 미국 중앙은행이 주도하는 금리인상 레이스이 참여치 않은 유럽과 일본의 결정이 곧 다가오며, 투자자들의 유럽 중앙은행의 첫 인상에 무게를 두고 있음.

Alcohol is a particularly crisis-proof consumer good. Glasses are raised in commiseration just as readily as celebration. Lockdowns may have shuttered pubs but home drinkers made up the difference. In 2020, year on year alcohol sales jumped by up to 5 per cent in Germany, the UK and US, according to the OECD. The choice of drink, however, is in flux. Europeans are drinking less wine and Brits are putting down the warm ales. In their place come fruity hard (carbonated) seltzers and low-alcohol beer. The decline in beer predates Covid-19. Between 2016 and 2021 beer sales dipped in both the US and Europe, according to data from IWSR Drinks Market Analysis, an alcohol market research firm. But the biggest trend of all is moderation. Low or no alcohol drinks (aka NoLos) have become a near $10bn market. Their rise suggests more drinkers are switching between alcohol and alcohol-free drinks instead of giving up booze altogether. From 0.5 per cent ABV craft beers to botanical flavoured Seedlip cocktails, NoLos drinks are unstoppable.

함의: 술은 불황에 둔감한 소비재이나 유행이 빠른 편, 최근 가장 두드러지는 유행은 논알콜임.

Rock guitarist Jack White, who extended his “Supply Chain Issues Tour” into October, might want to name his band’s next road trip after a different villain. That’s because supply strains, while still afflicting many consumers and businesses, are becoming more mundane than menacing like they were six months ago, especially in the US. Snarls have eased back from their pandemic peaks and some are already adding less inflationary pressure. Modest improvements are showing up in gauges maintained by forecasters ranging from Bloomberg Economics to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. But the gradual end of the pandemic-driven supply crunch might give way to another potential headache: a slump in consumer demand that throws economic growth into reverse and leads to an ugly inventory pileup.

함의: 10월까지 Supply Chain Issues Tour를 연장한 락 기타리스트는 후회할지도, 공급망 악화가 예전만 못하기 때문, 반면에 이 악재 해소 뒤에는 수요 둔화가 기다리고 있을 것임.