Bottom-line: 미국이 반도체 산업 내에서 중국을 견제하기 위해 일본 뿐 아니라 한국, 네덜란드의 동시적인 움직임이 필요하다고 함. 세계 최고의 반도체 생산업체를 보유한 한국, 노광장비로 독보적인 기업을 보유한 네덜란드, 반도체 제조에 필요한 기계 및 재료를 보유한 일본이 모두 중국 수출에 대한 엄격한 규제를 따라주기를 바라는 입장을 미리 밝힘.
The US is in discussions with Japan, the Netherlands and South Korea to restrict semiconductor exports to China, and it needs all parties to agree on a deal, US Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel said in an interview. Stressing the importance of South Korean and Dutch cooperation alongside Japan, he was speaking by phone days ahead of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s summit with President Joe Biden on Friday. The two allies will endorse a joint statement covering a wide range of security issues, but work is continuing on a chip industry restriction deal, he said. “You’ve got to work through not just Japan but you’ve got to work through obviously Korea, you’ve got to work through the Dutch,” Emanuel said. “It’s going to take a lot of work.”. South Korea is home to two of the world’s leading memory chipmakers, Samsung Electronics Co. and SK Hynix Inc., while the Netherlands has ASML Holding NV, maker of the world’s most advanced chip lithography systems. Japan, whose businesses provide essential machinery and materials for chip fabricators, also plays a critical role in the industry’s supply chain. Washington hopes to align all three nations in pursuing its stricter measures on China exports.
The US is in discussions with Japan, the Netherlands and South Korea to restrict semiconductor exports to China, and it needs all parties to agree on a deal, US Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel said in an interview. Stressing the importance of South Korean and Dutch cooperation alongside Japan, he was speaking by phone days ahead of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s summit with President Joe Biden on Friday. The two allies will endorse a joint statement covering a wide range of security issues, but work is continuing on a chip industry restriction deal, he said. “You’ve got to work through not just Japan but you’ve got to work through obviously Korea, you’ve got to work through the Dutch,” Emanuel said. “It’s going to take a lot of work.”. South Korea is home to two of the world’s leading memory chipmakers, Samsung Electronics Co. and SK Hynix Inc., while the Netherlands has ASML Holding NV, maker of the world’s most advanced chip lithography systems. Japan, whose businesses provide essential machinery and materials for chip fabricators, also plays a critical role in the industry’s supply chain. Washington hopes to align all three nations in pursuing its stricter measures on China exports.
Bottom-line: 올해 투표권은 없지만, 두 인사는 현재 점도표에 제시 된 수준까지 정책금리를 인상하거나, 혹은 그 지점이 정녕 정책금리의 끝일지 알 수 없다고 하면서 중앙은행이 점도표 미만 수준의 금리인상에 그칠 것이란 기대감을 눌렀음.
Two Fed officials emphasized that the central bank will probably raise rates above 5% before pausing and holding for some time. "We are just going to have to hold our resolve," Raphael Bostic said, reiterating that he favors getting the benchmark to 5%-5.25% before taking stock. Mary Daly (pictured) gave a similar prediction, though she's uncertain where the peak will be. The central bank could hike by either 25 bps or 50 bps at the end of the month, she told the WSJ. Neither vote on policy this year.
Two Fed officials emphasized that the central bank will probably raise rates above 5% before pausing and holding for some time. "We are just going to have to hold our resolve," Raphael Bostic said, reiterating that he favors getting the benchmark to 5%-5.25% before taking stock. Mary Daly (pictured) gave a similar prediction, though she's uncertain where the peak will be. The central bank could hike by either 25 bps or 50 bps at the end of the month, she told the WSJ. Neither vote on policy this year.
Bottom-line: 지난 9월말 이후 유럽의 주가지수는 16% 상승했고, 그 중에서도 경기 악화에 특히 취약한 기업들 집단이 가장 큰 폭(+20%)으로 상승함. 반대로 재무건전성이 뛰어난 기업집단은 +14% 상승에 그침. 골드만삭스 전략가는 이런 위태로운, 특히 인건비 비중이 높거나 재무건전성이 취약한 주식을 피할 것을 권고함. 성장이 약한 와중에 노동시장은 공급부족이기 때문임. 하지만 이런 금새라도 깨어질 듯한 주식들의 가파른 상승은 시장 예상보다 높은 경제성장을 바라보거나 약한 침체 정도로 이 국면이 끝날 것으로 생각한다고 해석할 수 있음.
In what has been a powerful rally in European equities lately, it’s the frailest stocks that have led the way, something that could prove risky when recession bites. The Stoxx 600 has risen 16% since the end of September, though within that, companies with weak balance sheets have outperformed. A Goldman Sachs basket has risen nearly 20% in the time, while those with stronger finances have lagged behind, rising only about 14%. For Goldman strategist Sharon Bell, such moves spell danger. She advises avoiding stocks with high staff costs or weak balance sheets, which she says are likely to remain under pressure “as growth remains weak and labor markets remain tight.” The group’s outperformance means it is now pricing in greater economic activity than current readings, and is likely to be discounting only a mild recession.
In what has been a powerful rally in European equities lately, it’s the frailest stocks that have led the way, something that could prove risky when recession bites. The Stoxx 600 has risen 16% since the end of September, though within that, companies with weak balance sheets have outperformed. A Goldman Sachs basket has risen nearly 20% in the time, while those with stronger finances have lagged behind, rising only about 14%. For Goldman strategist Sharon Bell, such moves spell danger. She advises avoiding stocks with high staff costs or weak balance sheets, which she says are likely to remain under pressure “as growth remains weak and labor markets remain tight.” The group’s outperformance means it is now pricing in greater economic activity than current readings, and is likely to be discounting only a mild recession.
Bottom-line: 유구무언 🤫
Futures Pare Losses With Powell Silent on Policy. Powell didn’t directly comment on the economic or monetary policy outlook in brief prepared remarks on central bank independence at a forum in Stockholm Tuesday.
Futures Pare Losses With Powell Silent on Policy. Powell didn’t directly comment on the economic or monetary policy outlook in brief prepared remarks on central bank independence at a forum in Stockholm Tuesday.
Bottom-line: 세계은행이 대부분 국가의 경제성장률을 하향 전망하면서, 올해 전세계 성장률은 30년래 역대 세번째로 낮은 1.7%를 기록할 것이라 함. 또한 2024년의 경제성장률 전망도 하향했는데 주 된 원인으로 지속적인 인플레이션과 높은 금리환경을 지목하며 경기침체의 가능성도 경고함.
The World Bank slashed its growth forecasts for most countries and regions, and warned that new adverse shocks could tip the global economy into a recession. Global gross domestic product will probably increase 1.7% this year, about half the pace forecast in June, the Washington-based lender said Tuesday. That would be the third-worst performance in the last three decades or so, after the contractions of 2009 and 2020. The bank, which also cut its growth estimates for 2024, said persistent inflation and higher interest rates are among the key reasons. It also cited the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and a decline in investment.
The World Bank slashed its growth forecasts for most countries and regions, and warned that new adverse shocks could tip the global economy into a recession. Global gross domestic product will probably increase 1.7% this year, about half the pace forecast in June, the Washington-based lender said Tuesday. That would be the third-worst performance in the last three decades or so, after the contractions of 2009 and 2020. The bank, which also cut its growth estimates for 2024, said persistent inflation and higher interest rates are among the key reasons. It also cited the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and a decline in investment.
Implication: 애플의 내재화 계획
Apple Inc. is planning to start using its own custom displays in mobile devices as early as 2024, an effort to reduce its reliance on technology partners like Samsung and LG and bring more components in-house.
Apple Inc. is planning to start using its own custom displays in mobile devices as early as 2024, an effort to reduce its reliance on technology partners like Samsung and LG and bring more components in-house.
Bottom-line: 제프리 건들락은 중앙은행이 어떤 의도를 가지는지보다 채권시장이 어떻게 반응하고 있는지를 봐야 한다고 함. 그는 40여년의 경력을 바탕으로 채권시장을 중앙은행보다 봐야 한다고 강력하게 주장했으며, 현재 채권시장의 스왑 금리는 임긍상승률이 예상을 하회하고 서비스 부문 지표가 악화되며 중앙은행이 책정한 최종금리보다 낮은 5% 미만에서 거래되고 있고, 경기침체 압력이 심해지며 올해 금리인하에 이를 것으로 보고 있음. 정책금리에 가장 민감한 2년물 채권금리도 화요일 4.25%에 그치고 있음.
Prominent fixed-income manager Jeffrey Gundlach said investors trying to figure out how the interest-rate situation will play out should pay attention to the bond market rather than the Federal Reserve. “My 40 plus years of experience in finance strongly recommends that investors should look at what the market says over what the Fed says,” the DoubleLine Capital LP Chief Investment Officer told listeners on a webcast Tuesday. A number of Fed officials have indicated that they expect to lift their policy target — currently a range of 4.25% to 4.5% — to more than 5% and keep it there for some time. But markets appear much more skeptical. Swaps are currently pricing in a peak of less than 5% and suggest that policy makers will in fact begin cutting again before the year is out as US recessionary pressures bite. Treasury yields have tumbled in the wake of recent data showing a moderation in US wage gains and a contraction in the services sector. Far from pricing in a benchmark above 5%, Treasury yields across the curve are trading below the Fed’s current range, with even the two-year note ending just shy of 4.25% on Tuesday.
Prominent fixed-income manager Jeffrey Gundlach said investors trying to figure out how the interest-rate situation will play out should pay attention to the bond market rather than the Federal Reserve. “My 40 plus years of experience in finance strongly recommends that investors should look at what the market says over what the Fed says,” the DoubleLine Capital LP Chief Investment Officer told listeners on a webcast Tuesday. A number of Fed officials have indicated that they expect to lift their policy target — currently a range of 4.25% to 4.5% — to more than 5% and keep it there for some time. But markets appear much more skeptical. Swaps are currently pricing in a peak of less than 5% and suggest that policy makers will in fact begin cutting again before the year is out as US recessionary pressures bite. Treasury yields have tumbled in the wake of recent data showing a moderation in US wage gains and a contraction in the services sector. Far from pricing in a benchmark above 5%, Treasury yields across the curve are trading below the Fed’s current range, with even the two-year note ending just shy of 4.25% on Tuesday.
Bottom-line: 물가지표 이후 중앙은행의 정책금리결정까지 길이 남은 상황에서 주식과 고수익 회사채가 2019년 이후 최고의 1월을 준비하고 있지만, 여전히 추세를 뛰어넘었다 할 수 있는 변곡점은 넘지 못함. 다만, 회사채와 국채 간 수익률 차이가 위험 임계점인 600bp에서 큰 폭으로 축소 된 상태로 경기가 침체할 것이란 전망을 무너뜨린 상태임.
Risk assets are off to a sizzling start to 2023, but they are still shy of sustainably breaking out of the previous year’s deep downtrends. That’s why there could be plenty of scope for strong reactions in either direction to both Thursday’s US inflation print and the barrage of Fed appearances slated to follow it. The S&P 500 and Bloomberg’s gauge of US junk bonds are both poised for their best January since 2019. The spread between high yield notes and Treasuries has compressed well down from the 600bps that could be regarded as a serious warning sign about economic conditions, belying all those recession forecasts out there.
Risk assets are off to a sizzling start to 2023, but they are still shy of sustainably breaking out of the previous year’s deep downtrends. That’s why there could be plenty of scope for strong reactions in either direction to both Thursday’s US inflation print and the barrage of Fed appearances slated to follow it. The S&P 500 and Bloomberg’s gauge of US junk bonds are both poised for their best January since 2019. The spread between high yield notes and Treasuries has compressed well down from the 600bps that could be regarded as a serious warning sign about economic conditions, belying all those recession forecasts out there.
• Bottom-line: Giving Fed Room to Downshift on Rates
A key gauge of US inflation posted a moderate increase in December, adding to evidence that some price pressures are easing and offering the Federal Reserve room to slow the pace of interest-rate hikes next month.
A key gauge of US inflation posted a moderate increase in December, adding to evidence that some price pressures are easing and offering the Federal Reserve room to slow the pace of interest-rate hikes next month.
Bottom-line: 물가지표 발표 이후 2월과 3월 통화정책회의에서 인상하게 될 금리 폭이 50bp 이하로 내려감. 이는 시장 참여자들이 3월에는 금리를 인상하지 않을 수도 있다는 확률을 책정하기 시작한단 의미임.
Traders have begun to price in the possibility that the Federal Reserve might not even hike interest rates at all at its March meeting following a widely anticipated increase in February. Front-end rates plunged after consumer-price index data showed inflation is slowing, giving the Fed scope to tighten less. Comments from official Patrick Harker also helped support the move. In the wake of that release, swaps shifted to show less than 50 basis points of tightening priced in across the next two meetings.
Traders have begun to price in the possibility that the Federal Reserve might not even hike interest rates at all at its March meeting following a widely anticipated increase in February. Front-end rates plunged after consumer-price index data showed inflation is slowing, giving the Fed scope to tighten less. Comments from official Patrick Harker also helped support the move. In the wake of that release, swaps shifted to show less than 50 basis points of tightening priced in across the next two meetings.
Bottom-line: 일본 10년물 국채금리가 0.54%까지 상승하며 새롭게 제시 된 중앙은행의 통제선도 넘어섬. 전세계에서 가장 완화적인 정책을 고수해 온 일본도 인플레이션으로 인해 변화를 보일 것이란 베팅은 헤지펀드들이 더 많은 국채 공매도를 실행하게 만들고 있음. 씨티의 경우 다음 주 일본 중앙은행이 국채수익률곡선통제를 없앨 것으로 전망하고 있음.
Japan’s benchmark bond yield breached the central bank’s new ceiling, with traders positioning for more changes to its yield-curve control policy next week. The 10-year yield rose as much as four basis points to 0.54%, a day after Yomiuri newspaper said the central bank will consider policy adjustments to counter turbulence caused by last month’s tweak. The benchmark yield pared its rise after the Bank of Japan announced a second round of unscheduled debt purchases. Traders are ramping up bets that the BOJ will exit its ultra-dovish settings as inflation accelerates, after doggedly clinging to the policy even as major counterparts tightened. Citigroup Inc. now expects the central bank to terminate its yield curve control next week, and hedge funds are shorting sovereign bonds.
Japan’s benchmark bond yield breached the central bank’s new ceiling, with traders positioning for more changes to its yield-curve control policy next week. The 10-year yield rose as much as four basis points to 0.54%, a day after Yomiuri newspaper said the central bank will consider policy adjustments to counter turbulence caused by last month’s tweak. The benchmark yield pared its rise after the Bank of Japan announced a second round of unscheduled debt purchases. Traders are ramping up bets that the BOJ will exit its ultra-dovish settings as inflation accelerates, after doggedly clinging to the policy even as major counterparts tightened. Citigroup Inc. now expects the central bank to terminate its yield curve control next week, and hedge funds are shorting sovereign bonds.