Division over Russia’s war in Ukraine meant a meeting of Group of 20 finance chiefs ended without the usual communique, though there was incremental progress on issues such as food and energy security. While countries agreed on most of a briefer chair summary released by host nation Indonesia, which included the need to respond to the food and fuel crisis, disagreement over the root cause prevented them for a second time this year from issuing a communique. The war in Ukraine is “an issue they cannot reconcile yet,” said Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati.

함의: G20 회담은 '문제의 근원은 무엇인가?'에서 합의를 보지 못해 올 해 두번째로 성명서를 발표하지 못하고 종료됨.

The International Monetary Fund will cut its global economic growth outlook “substantially” in its next update, as finance chiefs grapple with a shrinking list of options to address the worsening risks. Surging food and energy prices, slowing capital flows to emerging markets, the ongoing pandemic and a slowdown in China make it “much more challenging” for policymakers, Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, the IMF’s director for strategy, policy and review, said at a Sunday panel in Bali, Indonesia. “It’s shock after shock after shock which are really hitting the global economy.” She spoke after the Group of 20 finance ministers and central bank governors ended their meeting on Saturday without reaching a communique, underlining the difficulty in coordinating a global response to surging inflation and recessionary fears. 

함의: IMF가 다음 업데이트에서 세계경제 전망을 실질적으로 하향할 것임.

Wall Street Set for New ETF Gold Rush as Single-Stock Era Begins. The booming world of exchange-traded funds is about to get even more crowded after the very first single-equity ETFs launched Thursday -- despite a torrent of regulatory warnings over their risks while retail investors are still reeling from the crash in speculative trades from crypto to meme stocks. The eight products from AXS Investments look like the start of a coming invasion of amped-up strategies that will seek to enhance or invert the performance of volatile companies, including Tesla Inc., Nvidia Corp. and PayPal Holdings Inc. Another proposed lineup from Toroso Investments offers to layer on a bullish options strategy in order to boost returns. All told, at least 85 more such ETFs are currently planned, according to filings tracked by Bloomberg, covering some 37 companies.

함의: 단 하나의 주식을 대상으로 상승과 하락, 레버리지 베팅이 가능한 'Single stock ETF'가 출시되며, 라인업 대기 중인 유사품도 많음.

Central banks from the euro zone to Japan are about to reveal if they can resist the global urge for aggressive monetary tightening led by the US Federal Reserve. Almost all economists reckon the European Central Bank on Thursday will limit its first interest-rate hike in more than a decade to a mere quarter point, hours after the Bank of Japan keeps its own stimulative stance unchanged. Such outcomes would showcase some of the world’s last bastions of hesitancy in the face of surging inflation. Monetary officials from South Korea to Canada ratcheted up tightening in the past week, while investors began betting on an historic one percentage-point move by the Fed. 

함의: 미국 중앙은행이 주도하는 금리인상 레이스이 참여치 않은 유럽과 일본의 결정이 곧 다가오며, 투자자들의 유럽 중앙은행의 첫 인상에 무게를 두고 있음.

Alcohol is a particularly crisis-proof consumer good. Glasses are raised in commiseration just as readily as celebration. Lockdowns may have shuttered pubs but home drinkers made up the difference. In 2020, year on year alcohol sales jumped by up to 5 per cent in Germany, the UK and US, according to the OECD. The choice of drink, however, is in flux. Europeans are drinking less wine and Brits are putting down the warm ales. In their place come fruity hard (carbonated) seltzers and low-alcohol beer. The decline in beer predates Covid-19. Between 2016 and 2021 beer sales dipped in both the US and Europe, according to data from IWSR Drinks Market Analysis, an alcohol market research firm. But the biggest trend of all is moderation. Low or no alcohol drinks (aka NoLos) have become a near $10bn market. Their rise suggests more drinkers are switching between alcohol and alcohol-free drinks instead of giving up booze altogether. From 0.5 per cent ABV craft beers to botanical flavoured Seedlip cocktails, NoLos drinks are unstoppable.

함의: 술은 불황에 둔감한 소비재이나 유행이 빠른 편, 최근 가장 두드러지는 유행은 논알콜임.

Rock guitarist Jack White, who extended his “Supply Chain Issues Tour” into October, might want to name his band’s next road trip after a different villain. That’s because supply strains, while still afflicting many consumers and businesses, are becoming more mundane than menacing like they were six months ago, especially in the US. Snarls have eased back from their pandemic peaks and some are already adding less inflationary pressure. Modest improvements are showing up in gauges maintained by forecasters ranging from Bloomberg Economics to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. But the gradual end of the pandemic-driven supply crunch might give way to another potential headache: a slump in consumer demand that throws economic growth into reverse and leads to an ugly inventory pileup.

함의: 10월까지 Supply Chain Issues Tour를 연장한 락 기타리스트는 후회할지도, 공급망 악화가 예전만 못하기 때문, 반면에 이 악재 해소 뒤에는 수요 둔화가 기다리고 있을 것임.

Tesla’s AI and Autopilot head leaves after a four-month sabbatical. Earlier this year, Tesla Inc. CEO Elon Musk announced that Andrej Karpathy—his top artificial-intelligence executive and one of the leaders of the company’s self-driving car system—would be going on sabbatical for about four months. That timing wasn’t seen as ideal, given Tesla was racing to make full self-driving a complete feature (while under mounting scrutiny from regulators and some concerned customers). While Karpathy maintained he would ultimately return to Tesla after his break, it turns out that wasn’t truly the case. This past week, he and Musk announced that he wouldn’t be coming back. My question is whether Karpathy truly went on a “sabbatical” four months ago or if he was on the Tesla payroll simply to avoid him defecting to a rival in the very competitive autonomous driving space. Musk had been downplaying Karpathy’s role for some time, saying he’s part of an Autopilot and AI leadership team—rather than the main person in charge of the effort. Some people close to Tesla say Karpathy has been distancing himself from the role for a while, even before taking his leave. There’s no telling where Karpathy will land, but one aspiring carmaker could certainly use his expertise: Apple.

함의: 일론 머스크는 때때로 안드레이 카파티를 경시했고, 4개월의 안식휴가를 떠난 그는 돌아오지 않았지만, 그의 전문분야를 활용할 수 있는 유일한 곳이 있음.

Investors are steering clear of China as Beijing's policies give money managers more incentives to sell than to buy, investors and advisers say. Unpredictable regulation, strict virus policies, the wobbly real estate market and Xi Jinping's coziness with Vladimir Putin are all cited as reasons to avoid the country. Allocations to China are at a three-year low, according to EPFR, and clients have been shifting focus to India and Korea, Citi analysts say.

함의: 예측불가의 규제, 강도높은 바이러스 통제, 부동산 불안, 러시아 우방적 태도 등의 이유로 중국에 대한 투자비중이 3년래 최저를 기록, 이 자금은 인도와 한국으로 초점 이동 중임.

So was his golf. In the 29 previous times golf's oldest championship was held at St. Andrews, no winner had ever closed with a 64. Smith finished at 20-under 268, a record score for the Old Course and matching the lowest score to par in any major. “I got beaten by the better player this week. To go out and shoot 64 to win the Open Championship at St. Andrews is a hell of a showing. Hats off to Cam,” McIlroy said.

함의: The show belonged to Cameron Smith.

Team Transitory’s Inflation Hopes Rely on Recessions. Investors look to be well and truly in team transitory when it comes to inflation. The Treasuries market expects inflation to average about 3% over the coming two years, according to the breakeven rate. Stocks perked up at the end of last week as consumer inflation expectations moderated, but there’s a sting in the tail for all this. Projections for a significant global slowdown account for a decent chunk of the reason for optimism that cost pressures will dwindle. The combination of prices high enough to deter some spending and the Fed’s monetary medicine is widely expected to cause a recession in the US and much of the world faces a similar outlook.

함의: 침체보다 인플레이션 '일시적'에 희망을 건 동지들.

All told, 41% of respondents, which include portfolio managers and retail traders, see a debt crisis within the next six months -- a massive shift from the era of negative yields that engulfed the region as recently as early January. “I think expectations of a recession have ramped up quite quickly on the possibility of gas rationing, and if that plays out, you could see a lot of companies go to the wall,” said Craig Inches, head of rates and cash at Royal London Asset Management.

함의: 리테일 투자자와 기관 투자자의 온도 차이가 흥미로운 점.

Asian Assets Enjoying Brief Goldilocks Mood. The US dollar has a distinctly soft tone to start the week, assisted by lower Treasury yields. The holiday in Tokyo has also removed a level of support for USD/JPY as there is no yen fixing on Monday, with the dollar-yuan fixing lower than seen by traders. There is also plenty of green across Asian equities, with the Kospi up by more than 1%. The spillover from Friday’s US data showing that inflation expectations are easing is helping longer-dated Eurodollar futures to grind higher. Given there are no Fed speakers this week, the mood may extend for a few days, even with the ECB and BOJ meetings to come.

함의: Enjoy lunch!

China’s bank and property stocks rose after regulators sought to defuse a growing consumer boycott of mortgage payments by urging banks to increase lending to developers so they can complete unfinished housing projects. The guidance from the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission was issued in response to the boycotts and is aimed at expediting the delivery of homes to buyers, a newspaper published by the watchdog reported Sunday, citing an unidentified senior official at the agency. China is looking to stem the protests that have flared up at 100 housing projects across 50 cities, threatening to spread the real estate crisis to the banking system. Regulators met with banks last week to discuss the boycotts, while state media have cited analysts warning that the stability of the financial system could be hurt if more home buyers follow suit.

함의: 중국 정부는 50개 도시 100여개의 미완 부동산 프로젝트에 대한 보이콧 악화를 막기 위해 은행이 업자들에게 대출을 해주도록 함.

TINA Back With a Twist to Capture US Allure Amid Global Disarray. Investors “may be concluding they must overweight the US in their portfolios since there is no alternative country,” Yardeni said. He pointed to the war in Ukraine, the possibility of a European slump if Russia cuts off gas supplies, China’s Covid and property woes and emerging-market political chaos.

함의: 결국 미국 밖에 없다는 결론.

One of Wall Street’s biggest bears says US stocks are likely to face more declines even if the economy manages to avoid a recession. “Counter-trend rally may continue, but make no mistake, we don’t believe this bear market is over, even if we avoid a recession – the odds of which are increasing,” strategists led by Michael J. Wilson wrote in a note.

함의: 유명해지면 유연해지기 힘듬.