Bottom-line: 4대 중앙은행의 총 자산이 달러 기준으로 다시 증가세로 돌아섰음. 미국과 유럽 중앙은행이 긴축을 함에도 불구, 막대한 규모의 중국과 일본 중앙은행이 자산을 늘리면서 추세를 반전시킴. 이 증가에는 달러 약세 영향이 있으며, 왜 달러 약세가 전세계 자본시장에 긍정적인지를 알 수 있게 해줌.
The combined assets of the world’s four largest central banks are growing rapidly again, in dollar terms. Surges in the valuation of assets under management by the PBOC and BOJ are dwarfing the contractions in balance sheets of the Fed and ECB. Dollar depreciation plays a role, and it’s a clear reminder why USD weakness is so beneficial to global markets. The net impact has been an increase of almost $1 trillion in combined balance sheet size over the past two months of 2022.
The combined assets of the world’s four largest central banks are growing rapidly again, in dollar terms. Surges in the valuation of assets under management by the PBOC and BOJ are dwarfing the contractions in balance sheets of the Fed and ECB. Dollar depreciation plays a role, and it’s a clear reminder why USD weakness is so beneficial to global markets. The net impact has been an increase of almost $1 trillion in combined balance sheet size over the past two months of 2022.
1) 중국 정부는 가구 당 출산 자녀를 2명으로 변경한 후 5년이 된 시점인 2021년에 2명에서 3명으로 늘렸고, 가족 계획에 대한 정책이 민법에서 삭제 됨에 따라 추후 이러한 출산 제한 정책이 폐지될 가능성을 남겨 둔 상태임. 2022년 기준으로 중국의 신생아는 956만명으로 1950년 이후 최저치를 기록했음.
3) 이러한 인구 구조의 변화는 다양한 영향을 미치게 될 것인데, i) 노동인구 감소로 인한 인건비 상승으로 재화의 가격이 더 비싸질 것, ii) 인구감소로 인한 주택수요 감소가 원자재 가격이나 수요에 영향을 미칠 것, iii) 국민연금 제도에서 지급가능액 부족을 막기 위해 고군분투 해야 할 것임. 가장 문제는 경제가 성장할 수 있는 잠재력 자체가 떨어질 것이란 사실임. 또한 중국은 여전히 남아를 선호하는 사상이 남아있는데, 때문에 일부 지역에서는 남녀 비율이 120:100에 이를 정도임.
4) 이런 지경에 이르기까지 원인 중 하나였던 한 자녀 정책은 어디서 기원했는지 궁금할 것인데, 1949년 중화인민공화국이 수립 된 이후 농촌 지역에 의료 서비스를 널리하기 위해 맨발의 의사(barefoot doctors) 제도를 운영하면서 사망률은 줄어들고 출산이 증가하면서 인구증가율이 큰 폭으로 증가(5년 사이 천명 당 16명에서 천명당 25명), 1953년에 가족계획이 생겼고, 1970년대에는 주택부족과 식량부족에 직면하면서 가구 당 한 자녀로 출산을 제한하기 시작했음. 이 시기에는 심지어 여성이 낙태를 강요당하기도 했다는 사실(according to Human Rights Watch)도 밝혀졌음.
5) 끝으로, 그렇다면 이 문제를 어떻게 해결할 것인지로 매듭을 지어야 하는데, 일본과 한국과 같은 곳에서 이미 인구감소로 인한 출산장려책을 실시하고 있지만 그 무엇도 출산율을 급격하게 끌어올리지 못하고 있음. 때문에 중국의 상황도 지금과 크게 달라질 것 같지 않음(There’s no reason to think the situation in China will be different).
Pulse: 올해 시장 참여자들은 미국 중앙은행에 대한 걱정은 접어둔 것으로 보이며, 방향이 보다 명확해진 인플레이션과 생각보다 이른 개방에 따른 중국의 성장, 그리고 기업 이익에 더 초점을 맞추고 있음.
The Fed Is Slipping Down the Worry-List. Markets are apparently a bit less concerned with the Federal Reserve this year. With good reason: Earnings are looming in importance, and there’s confidence in the direction of US inflation. Japan’s yield-curve control drama doesn’t look like it’s really over. And China’s breakout from Covid Zero means growth could return there months earlier than had been expected.
The Fed Is Slipping Down the Worry-List. Markets are apparently a bit less concerned with the Federal Reserve this year. With good reason: Earnings are looming in importance, and there’s confidence in the direction of US inflation. Japan’s yield-curve control drama doesn’t look like it’s really over. And China’s breakout from Covid Zero means growth could return there months earlier than had been expected.
Bottom-line: 미국과 일본의 경제재개 사례를 보면 바이러스 대확산 시기의 초과저축분을 어떻게 사용하는지 태도가 차이를 만들었고, 그것이 주가 상승률 차이로 귀결됐음. 미국인이 초과저축분의 45%를 소비에 쓰면서 소매업체 주가 또한 재개 후 6개월 간 +17% 상승함. 중국에 대한 투자 아이디어로 이러한 경제재개가 뜨거운 가운데, 8,270억 달러의 중국 내 저축분이 모두 소비에 쏟아질지 확신할 수 없지만, 대부분 투자자들은 신년 설날에 중국인들이 백주를 마시며 잔치를 할 것이라 생각함. 소비 뿐만 아니라 여타 경제와 다르게 중국은 중앙은행 또한 소비를 뒷받침하는 여력이 되어 줄 것임. 대다수 경제지역이 올해 침체에 접어드는데 반해, 세계에서 두번째로 큰 이곳은 경제순환주기에서 초기 회복 단계에 있으므로, 그 기회를 잡는 것이 좋은 거래가 될 수도 있을 것임.
Global investors are flocking back to mainland China’s $10 trillion stock market as the nation reopens and races toward herd immunity. They are betting that the Chinese will be partying and popping open a lot of $200-a-bottle baijiu, the pricey fiery liquor manufactured by the likes of Kweichow Moutai Co., this Lunar New Year. After all, betting on pent-up demand unleashed by the relaxation of Covid policies can be a great trade. In the US, consumer services companies rose by 17% six months after the initial reopening in March 2021, according to data compiled by Morgan Stanley. However, not all resumption of normal life boosts an economy. While retail sales in the US have soared, the Japanese are feeling a lot more cautious, even though consumers in both nations notched up trillions of dollars in excess savings during the pandemic. This divergence is reflected in their stock market performances, too. As such, there is no guarantee that the Chinese will spend the estimated extra $827 billion they hoarded during the Covid-Zero era. Before you know it, the recent reopening rally may just dissipate or even reverse.
However, in high-end retail, chances are that they will spend like exuberant Americans. The hurdles present in the broader economy are not in the luxury segment. However, there is a major tailwind for the country’s spenders — they have healthier balance sheets and a friendlier central bank. With about 45% of the excess savings Americans accumulated during the pandemic already spent, much of the rest is now offset by a rise in auto loans and unpaid credit card balances caused in part by interest-rate hikes, according to Jefferies. By comparison, the Chinese are just getting started with their revenge consumption. In this sense, being late to the reopening also means it’s easy to make an investment case for China now. While most economists are expecting a recession in the US this year, the world’s second-largest economy is in the early stages of the business cycle.
Global investors are flocking back to mainland China’s $10 trillion stock market as the nation reopens and races toward herd immunity. They are betting that the Chinese will be partying and popping open a lot of $200-a-bottle baijiu, the pricey fiery liquor manufactured by the likes of Kweichow Moutai Co., this Lunar New Year. After all, betting on pent-up demand unleashed by the relaxation of Covid policies can be a great trade. In the US, consumer services companies rose by 17% six months after the initial reopening in March 2021, according to data compiled by Morgan Stanley. However, not all resumption of normal life boosts an economy. While retail sales in the US have soared, the Japanese are feeling a lot more cautious, even though consumers in both nations notched up trillions of dollars in excess savings during the pandemic. This divergence is reflected in their stock market performances, too. As such, there is no guarantee that the Chinese will spend the estimated extra $827 billion they hoarded during the Covid-Zero era. Before you know it, the recent reopening rally may just dissipate or even reverse.
However, in high-end retail, chances are that they will spend like exuberant Americans. The hurdles present in the broader economy are not in the luxury segment. However, there is a major tailwind for the country’s spenders — they have healthier balance sheets and a friendlier central bank. With about 45% of the excess savings Americans accumulated during the pandemic already spent, much of the rest is now offset by a rise in auto loans and unpaid credit card balances caused in part by interest-rate hikes, according to Jefferies. By comparison, the Chinese are just getting started with their revenge consumption. In this sense, being late to the reopening also means it’s easy to make an investment case for China now. While most economists are expecting a recession in the US this year, the world’s second-largest economy is in the early stages of the business cycle.
Bottom-line: There’s a repeat of the pledge to ease again, if needed.
BOJ Maintains 10-Year JGB Yield Target at About 0%. BOJ Maintains Policy Balance Rate at -0.1%. Looks like no changes at first glance.
BOJ Maintains 10-Year JGB Yield Target at About 0%. BOJ Maintains Policy Balance Rate at -0.1%. Looks like no changes at first glance.
Bottom-line: 달러가 최고치를 기록 한 작년 9월 이후 10% 가량 하락하자 시장 참여자들은 미국 중앙은행의 금리인상 태도가 달러의 추가 약세에 어떤 영향을 줄지 주시하고 있지만, 그것보다 중국을 볼 것을 권고함. 중국과 관련 된 리플레이션 요인을 하나의 지수로 만들어보면 달러의 강세/약세와 밀접하고, 특히 작년 11월 이후 둘의 관계가 더욱 확연해짐. 중국은 시장 예상보다 빠른 경제 재개의 단계를 밟으면서 11월부터 위험자산들에 대한 수요를 강화시켰음.
While much of the focus in currency markets right now is how the prospect of slowing Federal Reserve rate hikes has helped fuel dollar weakness, the biggest factor may be across the world in China. That’s according to Bank of America Corp. strategists, who tracked a measure of Chinese “reflation assets” against a dollar index. The correlation between the two, which has tightened since November, suggests sentiment around China’s emergence from Covid-19 lockdowns will continue to move the greenback. “The recovery in China reflation sentiment has likely been an important driver of dollar depreciation, potentially more than US rates which have not fallen much,” wrote strategists Adarsh Sinha and Janice Xue in a note dated Tuesday. The ICE US Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against six of its global peers, has slipped about 10% since a two-decade high in September. The moves gathered pace in November as the faster-than-expected resumption of mobility across China bolstered demand for risk-sensitive assets.
While much of the focus in currency markets right now is how the prospect of slowing Federal Reserve rate hikes has helped fuel dollar weakness, the biggest factor may be across the world in China. That’s according to Bank of America Corp. strategists, who tracked a measure of Chinese “reflation assets” against a dollar index. The correlation between the two, which has tightened since November, suggests sentiment around China’s emergence from Covid-19 lockdowns will continue to move the greenback. “The recovery in China reflation sentiment has likely been an important driver of dollar depreciation, potentially more than US rates which have not fallen much,” wrote strategists Adarsh Sinha and Janice Xue in a note dated Tuesday. The ICE US Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against six of its global peers, has slipped about 10% since a two-decade high in September. The moves gathered pace in November as the faster-than-expected resumption of mobility across China bolstered demand for risk-sensitive assets.
Bottom-line: 제임스 블라드는 물가 목표치 2% 달성을 위해 중앙은행이 금리를 인상하고, 올 한 해 긴축적 상태에 머물러야 한다고 다시 한 번 강조했지만, 그보다 이제 충분히 제한적인 영역에 근접했다는 발언을 더욱 주목하고 있음.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said US interest rates have to rise further to ensure that inflationary pressures recede. “We’re almost into a zone that we could call restrictive - we’re not quite there yet,” Bullard said Wednesday in an online Wall Street Journal interview. Officials want to ensure inflation will come down on a steady path to the 2% target. “We don’t want to waiver on that,” he said. “Policy has to stay on the tighter side during 2023.” as the disinflationary process unfolds, he added.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said US interest rates have to rise further to ensure that inflationary pressures recede. “We’re almost into a zone that we could call restrictive - we’re not quite there yet,” Bullard said Wednesday in an online Wall Street Journal interview. Officials want to ensure inflation will come down on a steady path to the 2% target. “We don’t want to waiver on that,” he said. “Policy has to stay on the tighter side during 2023.” as the disinflationary process unfolds, he added.
Bottom-line: 경제지표의 부진으로 중앙은행의 금리인상 우려를 내려놓았던 낙관이 성장에 대한 비관으로 바뀌며 주가지수 반락.
US stocks turned sharply as weak economic data rekindled concern over the outlook for growth, overshadowing earlier optimism the Federal Reserve will downshift its tightening policy.
US stocks turned sharply as weak economic data rekindled concern over the outlook for growth, overshadowing earlier optimism the Federal Reserve will downshift its tightening policy.
Docent: 원가가산(Mark-up)에 대한 내용을 도슨트 함. 생산자물가지수가 빠르게 하락하며 통화정책에 대한 우려는 줄었지만, 향후 더 낮아질 기업 이익률에 대한 고민을 해야함. 생산자물가가 먼저 오르고 소비자물가 상승이 후행할 때 기업은 원가가산율([가격-원가]/원가, 예를 들어 750원 판매제품의 원가가 250원이면 200%)을 높여서 기업 이익률을 높일 여지가 있음. 하지만 곧 소비자물가가 생산자물가만큼 오르면서 소비가 위축되면 원가가산율을 낮추면서 이익률을 희생하기 시작해야 함. 이 논리로 보면 현재의 시장은 기업 이익률을 낙관적으로 추정하고 있기에, 추가적인 이익률 하락을 감안해야 할 것임.
PPI came in weaker than expected, and continued to fall from its March highs, suggesting profit margins will keep tightening. Equity markets are not yet fully reflecting the pace of the expected fall in margins. When inflation rises, PPI increases before CPI, and the gap between PPI and CPI widens. This allows firms to increase their mark-ups, and profit margins rise. But then CPI starts to catch up as price pressures become broad based. This squeezes consumer income, which eventually forces firms to start reducing their mark-ups. The PPI-CPI wedge continuing to close indicates profit margins will continue to fall.
PPI came in weaker than expected, and continued to fall from its March highs, suggesting profit margins will keep tightening. Equity markets are not yet fully reflecting the pace of the expected fall in margins. When inflation rises, PPI increases before CPI, and the gap between PPI and CPI widens. This allows firms to increase their mark-ups, and profit margins rise. But then CPI starts to catch up as price pressures become broad based. This squeezes consumer income, which eventually forces firms to start reducing their mark-ups. The PPI-CPI wedge continuing to close indicates profit margins will continue to fall.