One of Wall Street’s biggest bears says US stocks are likely to face more declines even if the economy manages to avoid a recession. “Counter-trend rally may continue, but make no mistake, we don’t believe this bear market is over, even if we avoid a recession – the odds of which are increasing,” strategists led by Michael J. Wilson wrote in a note.

함의: 유명해지면 유연해지기 힘듬.

Dividends Offer Investors a Recessionary Shield. In these challenging times, investors are seeking places to hide from the specter of a possible recession. Dividends are one of them. “We are big fans of equity income investing and believe that having a specific allocation to this style makes sense both strategically and in the current market context, tactically as well,” say Societe Generale strategists including Andrew Lapthorne. “Boring conservative equity income investing is once again having a renaissance.”

함의: 배당은 마루 밑에 묻어 둔 현금과 같음.

Risk assets rally as dollar weakness comes as relief.

As equity markets rally on easing rate-hike concerns, Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s chief global equity strategist said it’s premature to bet the pressure is reducing on the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy. While the slump in stocks since the beginning of the year reflects investor expectations of a contraction in growth, “I don’t think a deep recession is being priced yet,” Peter Oppenheimer said on Bloomberg TV, adding that tighter financial conditions would be needed “before we can see a bottoming of risk assets.”

함의: 지속 가능한 랠리로 보긴 어렵다고 함.

Moscow again rejected additional gas-pipeline space offered by Ukraine, keeping European buyers guessing as future flows on the key Nord Stream route also remain uncertain. At a monthly auction on Monday, Russia’s Gazprom PJSC opted not to book extra capacity to ship gas to Europe via Ukrainian pipelines in August. That keeps deliveries to the continent tight, just as concern grows that the Nord Stream link may not fully return when maintenance ends later this week.
Russia’s squeeze on gas supplies has unsettled the market, with European benchmark futures more than doubling in value this year. Last week, Germany started to withdraw gas from stockpiles that it had been building up for winter, while Hungary declared an “energy state of emergency.”

함의: 러시아의 에너지를 볼모로 한 압박강도가 높아지고 있음.

A halt of Russian gas supplies to the European Union could potentially reduce its gross domestic product by as much as 1.5% if the next winter is cold and the region fails to take preventive measures to save energy, according to new estimates from the bloc. The European Commission is set to warn that, in the event of an average winter, a cut-off of gas shipments from Moscow would reduce the GDP by between 0.6% and 1%, says a draft EU document seen by Bloomberg News. The EU’s executive arm is planning a set of recommendations to member states -- including reductions to heating and cooling use and some market-based measures -- to mitigate the impact of a possible full disruption by Russia, its biggest source of imports. 

함의: 러시아 가스 공급이 중단 될 경우 유로존의 경제성장률은 0.6%~1.0% 가량 타격을 받을 것으로 분석함.

Apple Inc. plans to slow hiring and spending growth next year in some divisions to cope with a potential economic downturn, according to people with knowledge of the matter. The decision stems from a move to be more careful during uncertain times, though it isn’t a companywide policy, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the deliberations are private. The changes won’t affect all teams, and Apple is still planning an aggressive product launch schedule in 2023 that includes a mixed-reality headset, its first major new category since 2015. Still, the more cautious tone is notable for Apple, a company that has generally beat Wall Street predictions during the Covid-19 pandemic and has weathered past economic turmoil better than many peers.

함의: 애플은 잠재적 경기침체 위험에 대응코자 일부 팀의 내년도 고용과 비용집행을 조절하겠다 함.

"The art of being wise is knowing what to overlook."

- William James

The White House supports prohibiting semiconductor companies from expanding certain investment in China if they take new subsidies to build plants in the US under legislation the Senate’s set to begin debating Tuesday. “We continue to support strong guardrails” in the legislation, White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Monday, referring to a provision of the bill that would limit China investments for companies that take some of the $52 billion the measure would dedicate toward US semiconductor manufacturing.
The incentives are intended to “generate more semiconductor investment here in the US, not in China,” Jean-Pierre said. “And guardrails help slow the growth of investment in China. That is why it’s such an important part of the bill. We believe in strong guardrails.”

함의: 미국 내 반도체 설비투자를 하는 대신 중국에 투자를 금지시키는 법안이 논의, 이를 통해 자국 투자를 늘리고 중국의 성장을 늦추는 효과를 기대한다고 함.

King dollar’s crown is looking a little tarnished now that Fed officials have taken the shine off bets on a full-point rate hike for this month. It just posted its worst two-day decline in a month, though this year’s strong upward trend looks unlikely to break until at least next week’s Fed meeting delivers greater clarity on how close we are to the peak of the tightening cycle. This week’s ECB and BOJ gatherings could also give USD some fresh vigor, along with the potential for Russia gas supply curbs.

함의: 중앙은행의 100bp 인상 확률이 낮아지며 달러는 이틀 간 최대 하락을 보였지만, 이번 주 유럽 및 일본의 정책 모멘텀을 대기 중임.

Never mind the hysteria over the inverted yield curve, its next major move will be to steepen aggressively as recession fears intensify. Markets are forward-looking. When an oncoming recession gets close enough that you can sense its looming presence, that’s when the yield curve should bull-steepen as the focus changes to rate cuts from hikes. A study of all six US recessions during the past 46 years (full history of 2-year data on Bloomberg) shows that the average trough-to-peak 2s-10s widening is 220 basis points in the period starting from three months before the recession until the contraction’s end.

함의: 시장은 언제나 앞서 달리는 경향, 수익률 역전 후 경기침체 때가 되면 되려 금리인하를 반영하며 수익률 곡선은 다시 가팔라질 것임.

Hedge funds’ unabated appetite for Treasuries even amid red-hot US inflation signals a positive outlook for the securities. Investors based in Cayman Islands -- a popular domicile for hedge funds -- bought a net $75.9b of Treasury bonds in May, the most on official data going back to 2001. These funds had been mostly net buyers since November despite the skyrocketing cost of living stateside and aggressive Fed policy tightening. This suggests that hedge fund buying could rise even further once inflation shows signs of peaking and recession concern materializes.

함의: 헤지펀드들은 인플레이션 둔화와 경기침체 임박에 베팅하며 채권을 대량 매수함.

New Covid-19 cases in China jumped to almost 700, with more infectious strains of the virus continuing to test the country’s hardline approach as outbreaks spread beyond the major cities. China reported 699 cases for Monday -- the highest daily tally since May 22 -- after recording more than 1,000 infections over the weekend. Most of the cases are centered in the hotspots of the Guangxi region in the south, which recorded 243 cases on Monday -- taking its total since the outbreak there flared six days ago to 829 -- and the remote northwestern province of Gansu, which reported 231 new infections, taking the number of cases there in the past week to 953. 

함의: 중국 내 바이러스 감염자 증가 속도가 가팔라짐.