Market Reaction: 모든 것을 사자는 올 한 해 화두가 공격 받고 있으며, 미국 물가 지표가 최후의 일격이 될까 우려하고 있음. 🥶
Early 2023’s theme of “buy everything” is under attack, and US inflation numbers could deliver the coup de grace.
Early 2023’s theme of “buy everything” is under attack, and US inflation numbers could deliver the coup de grace.
But: 한편으로는 이코노미스트들이 이제는 물가를 지속해서 과대평가하는 국면에 돌입한 것은 아닌지 생각해 볼 필요도 있음. 🙊
However, trading is rarely so simple. Two of the last three CPI figures have been downside surprises. This may mean economists are now entering into another long phase of over-estimating inflation. After all, there’s a 2:1 bias to misses and then beats over both pre-Covid and Covid periods respectively. If recent downside surprises are an indication, 2023 really could be different.
However, trading is rarely so simple. Two of the last three CPI figures have been downside surprises. This may mean economists are now entering into another long phase of over-estimating inflation. After all, there’s a 2:1 bias to misses and then beats over both pre-Covid and Covid periods respectively. If recent downside surprises are an indication, 2023 really could be different.
Bottom-line: 골드만삭스는 S&P 500 지수에 속한 기업들의 실적 발표를 통해 네 가지 핵심 주제를 선정했으며, 이는 i) 경제성장, ii) 이익률, iii) 노동시장, iv) 인플레이션 감축 법안임. 최근 예상보다 좋은 경제지표와 달리 기업인들은 긴축적 통화정책 상황에서 경기를 비관하고 있으며, 기업 운영에서 경기침체를 대비하고 있다고 함. 기업 이익률은 매출 감소와 투입원가 상승에 따라 부진하며, 특이 원가 상승은 한 해 내도록 경영진의 고충이었음. 정리해고의 경우 바이러스 대확산 시기 폭발적으로 인력을 고용했던 기술업에 집중되어 있고, 수요 둔화에 대응한다기 보다는 주주들의 비용절감 요구에 대응하는 성격이 컸음. 인플레이션 감축 법안은 유효세율이 가장 낮은 기업들은 부정적이지만, 에너지와 건강관리 기업은 가장 수혜를 입을 것이라 함.
In our quarterly Beige Book, we gather anecdotal evidence of fundamental and thematic trends from the earnings trannoscripts of S&P 500 companies. This quarter, four themes dominated earnings calls: (1) economic growth; (2) profit margins; (3) the labor market; and (4) the Inflation Reduction Act. Commentary from 4Q earnings calls has focused on realized and prospective economic growth, both domestically and globally. A subset of commentary from S&P 500 firms expressing concerns over the trajectory of U.S. economic growth is at odds with recent robust economic data and receding recession risk. Pessimistic commentary from managements typically underscored the drag on economic growth from tightening financial conditions and stressed that they were adjusting their operations to prepare for a potential recession. Some companies also indicated that a U.S. recession, albeit a mild one, is their base case scenario for the coming year. Both investors and companies are focused on the trajectory for corporate profit margins and their recent compression due to slowing sales growth and elevated input costs. Margin pressures from elevated input costs have been top of mind for managements for well over a year, and the share of companies reporting rising materials costs according to a NABE survey appears to have peaked in the middle of last year when 76% of respondents reported rising costs. Corporate layoff announcements have prompted questions over the extent to which these layoffs could be a sign of a broader slowdown in the labor market. Our economists recently noted that many companies announcing layoffs are in the technology sector, hired aggressively during the pandemic, and in some cases appear to be responding to investor demand to cut costs through layoffs rather than signaling a weaker demand picture more broadly. Companies have begun to discuss the potential impact of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) on their businesses. The act, which was passed in late 2022, contains energy and climate spending incentives alongside health insurance subsidies, drug pricing controls, funding for IRS enforcement, the addition of a 15% minimum tax on corporate book income, and a 1% excise tax on buybacks. The most likely beneficiaries of the legislation will be companies within Energy and Healthcare, while companies with the lowest effective tax rates will likely be negatively affected. Company commentary reflected optimism over potential future tailwinds to sales and earnings from the legislation, in particular from Energy and Healthcare companies.
In our quarterly Beige Book, we gather anecdotal evidence of fundamental and thematic trends from the earnings trannoscripts of S&P 500 companies. This quarter, four themes dominated earnings calls: (1) economic growth; (2) profit margins; (3) the labor market; and (4) the Inflation Reduction Act. Commentary from 4Q earnings calls has focused on realized and prospective economic growth, both domestically and globally. A subset of commentary from S&P 500 firms expressing concerns over the trajectory of U.S. economic growth is at odds with recent robust economic data and receding recession risk. Pessimistic commentary from managements typically underscored the drag on economic growth from tightening financial conditions and stressed that they were adjusting their operations to prepare for a potential recession. Some companies also indicated that a U.S. recession, albeit a mild one, is their base case scenario for the coming year. Both investors and companies are focused on the trajectory for corporate profit margins and their recent compression due to slowing sales growth and elevated input costs. Margin pressures from elevated input costs have been top of mind for managements for well over a year, and the share of companies reporting rising materials costs according to a NABE survey appears to have peaked in the middle of last year when 76% of respondents reported rising costs. Corporate layoff announcements have prompted questions over the extent to which these layoffs could be a sign of a broader slowdown in the labor market. Our economists recently noted that many companies announcing layoffs are in the technology sector, hired aggressively during the pandemic, and in some cases appear to be responding to investor demand to cut costs through layoffs rather than signaling a weaker demand picture more broadly. Companies have begun to discuss the potential impact of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) on their businesses. The act, which was passed in late 2022, contains energy and climate spending incentives alongside health insurance subsidies, drug pricing controls, funding for IRS enforcement, the addition of a 15% minimum tax on corporate book income, and a 1% excise tax on buybacks. The most likely beneficiaries of the legislation will be companies within Energy and Healthcare, while companies with the lowest effective tax rates will likely be negatively affected. Company commentary reflected optimism over potential future tailwinds to sales and earnings from the legislation, in particular from Energy and Healthcare companies.
Bottom-line: 인플레이션에 대한 시장 참여자들의 대다수 의견은 중앙은행이 물가 압력 완화에 따른 정책금리 인상 중단이었음. 그러나 물가지표 산정의 집계 기간 변경 후 수정 발표 된 결과는 작년 하반기 물가가 이전보다 높았고, 이로 인해 많은 이코노미스트들이 전망치를 수정했음.
The story on inflation up until last week was a positive one as price pressures eased across a range of indicators amid the Federal Reserve’s rate hiking campaign. That narrative completely shifted with the release of CPI revisions Friday. That data showed inflation has higher at the end of last year than previously thought. Deutsche Bank economists called it “rewriting history”, and it led to a flurry of economists’ revisions heading into this week.
The story on inflation up until last week was a positive one as price pressures eased across a range of indicators amid the Federal Reserve’s rate hiking campaign. That narrative completely shifted with the release of CPI revisions Friday. That data showed inflation has higher at the end of last year than previously thought. Deutsche Bank economists called it “rewriting history”, and it led to a flurry of economists’ revisions heading into this week.
Bottom-line: 고용지표 발표 이후 중앙은행이 정책금리를 보다 더 올려야 한다는 시장의 중지가 모아진 상태에 있으며, 금일 발표되는 물가지표가 그 방향을 더 강하게 만들 수도 있음.
Market expectations for the Fed’s tightening path have risen considerably since the start of the month largely thanks to a far better than expected jobs report on Feb. 3. With risk seemingly skewed slightly to the upside for Tuesday’s release, any print above consensus would likely reinforce the growing view that the Fed has more work to do before they can rest easy, and could push the terminal rate higher and eventual easing further out.
Market expectations for the Fed’s tightening path have risen considerably since the start of the month largely thanks to a far better than expected jobs report on Feb. 3. With risk seemingly skewed slightly to the upside for Tuesday’s release, any print above consensus would likely reinforce the growing view that the Fed has more work to do before they can rest easy, and could push the terminal rate higher and eventual easing further out.
Market Reaction: 시장 예상치의 경우 평균으로 만들어지는 것인데, 이를 추정한 52명 중 13명은 6.4%의 물가지표 전년 대비 상승을 예상했었음.
It looks like 13 of the 52 economists in the Bloomberg survey did anticipate at least a 6.4% year-on-year gain in the headline CPI.
It looks like 13 of the 52 economists in the Bloomberg survey did anticipate at least a 6.4% year-on-year gain in the headline CPI.
Bottom-line: 이번 물가지표 중 주거 항목이 문제로 부각되고 있는데, 이 항목의 인플레이션이 통제되지 않으면 중앙은행이 원하는 수준의 인플레이션을 보는 일이 더 어려워질 것임.
It was largely as expected, but it could have been worse, Stephen Stanley at Santander tells Bloomberg TV and Radio. As long as shelter costs are going up as rapidly as they have been, it’s going to be tough to get inflation down to where the Fed wants to see it.
It was largely as expected, but it could have been worse, Stephen Stanley at Santander tells Bloomberg TV and Radio. As long as shelter costs are going up as rapidly as they have been, it’s going to be tough to get inflation down to where the Fed wants to see it.
But: 추정치보다 높은 물가지표였지만, 2021년 10월 이후 가장 낮은 전년 대비 증가율이며, 백악관 또한 마찬가지로 추세적으로 물가가 하락 중이라고 강조할 것임.
Even though the 6.4% year-on-year CPI increase was higher than the average estimate of economists, it’s still the lowest reading since October 2021 and a tick down from the prior month. The White House is likely to point to the dip in the year-on-year inflation rates. The 6.4% headline CPI gain is the smallest since October 2021. And January marks the seventh straight drop in that rate.
Even though the 6.4% year-on-year CPI increase was higher than the average estimate of economists, it’s still the lowest reading since October 2021 and a tick down from the prior month. The White House is likely to point to the dip in the year-on-year inflation rates. The 6.4% headline CPI gain is the smallest since October 2021. And January marks the seventh straight drop in that rate.
Bottom-line: 시장 참여자들은 이 정도 숫자에도 흔쾌히 받아들이는 이유는 무엇일까? 그것은 물가지표 산정 방식에 대한 수정 이후 OER에 대한 가중치가 증가했고, 이 영역이 물가 지표를 조금 더 위로 올릴 수 있다고 생각했기 때문임.
“Looks like OER is a driver of the slight headline beat .7 vs .8 last. Recall, OER weight increased in the latest revision. That is why people thought upside risk to the number. Used auto weight decreased. Since private market rent data has collapsed, we know that OER is moving even lower over time. That is why market is taking the inline number OK.”
“Looks like OER is a driver of the slight headline beat .7 vs .8 last. Recall, OER weight increased in the latest revision. That is why people thought upside risk to the number. Used auto weight decreased. Since private market rent data has collapsed, we know that OER is moving even lower over time. That is why market is taking the inline number OK.”
Bottom-line: 모건스탠리의 경우 3월과 5월 통화정책회의에서 25bp씩 금리인상을 추가로 할 것으로 전망을 변경했지만, 5월 이후 노동시장 둔화 및 물가 상승률 둔화로 긴축적인 통화정책이 중단, 12월에는 첫 금리인하를 시행할 것으로 보고 있음.
Morgan Stanley’s US economists, led by Ellen Zentner, say that, for the Fed, there isn’t any immediate implication here. Zentner and her team in the past couple of weeks added two rate hikes to their outlook, for March and May. We expect the Fed tightening path to be largely set through the May FOMC, with a 25 basis-point hike at each of the upcoming meetings. Beyond May, however, a slowing labor market and more moderate inflation outcomes should set the stage for a stop in the tightening cycle and an eventual first rate cut in December.
Morgan Stanley’s US economists, led by Ellen Zentner, say that, for the Fed, there isn’t any immediate implication here. Zentner and her team in the past couple of weeks added two rate hikes to their outlook, for March and May. We expect the Fed tightening path to be largely set through the May FOMC, with a 25 basis-point hike at each of the upcoming meetings. Beyond May, however, a slowing labor market and more moderate inflation outcomes should set the stage for a stop in the tightening cycle and an eventual first rate cut in December.
Bottom-line: 이제 시장의 중추 질문은 인플레이션 완화 과정 중 일시적 상승인지, 혹은 중앙은행이 곤두서야 할 신호인지 여부임. 다만, 파월 의장은 인플레이션을 통제하는 경로가 순탄하진 않을 것이라 이미 발언했고, 이번 물가지표는 그것을 투영하는 것일 수 있음.
The next question for economists is whether this was a blip in an otherwise positive picture of easing inflation, or a sign of sustained price pressures that will require additional Fed attention. Powell has signaled that the path for inflation from here won’t be a smooth one, and this report lines up with that view.
The next question for economists is whether this was a blip in an otherwise positive picture of easing inflation, or a sign of sustained price pressures that will require additional Fed attention. Powell has signaled that the path for inflation from here won’t be a smooth one, and this report lines up with that view.
Market Reaction: 그런데, 과연 주식시장 참여자들은 이 물가지표를 신경쓰고 있었을까? 그렇다면 어제의 상승과 물가지표 발표 전 지수 선물의 상승은 어떻게 설명할 것인가? 주식시장 참여자들은 사실 이 지표를 크게 상관하지 않는 것일지도 모름.
As expected, core revised up slightly. Cue the narrative from markets that inflation is higher (month-over-month) and from politicians that it’s lower (year-over-year). Stock market doesn’t care. If traders were really worried about CPI, we wouldn’t have gotten a big rally yesterday and a lift in the futures pre-number. The in-line number was a mere speed bump in the stocks’ advance. Certainly the rally in bonds gives a further excuse for stocks to rally.
As expected, core revised up slightly. Cue the narrative from markets that inflation is higher (month-over-month) and from politicians that it’s lower (year-over-year). Stock market doesn’t care. If traders were really worried about CPI, we wouldn’t have gotten a big rally yesterday and a lift in the futures pre-number. The in-line number was a mere speed bump in the stocks’ advance. Certainly the rally in bonds gives a further excuse for stocks to rally.