The European Central Bank may consider raising interest rates on Thursday by double the quarter-point it outlined just last month because of the worsening inflation backdrop, according to people familiar with the situation. Such a move would mark a sharp deviation from guidance that the majority of Governing Council members have stuck to since it was laid out at the June 9 policy meeting and would bring the ECB more in line with the global drive for outsized hikes.

함의: 6월 9일 이후 이어왔던 톤과 다르게 유럽중앙은행도 50bp 인상을 할 것 같음.

The long anticipated wave of global earnings downgrades looks like it may have begun, though for now at least it’s more of a ripple. Forward earnings estimates for the MSCI AC World Index have come down by over one percent from their early June high. Analysts still seem reluctant to take a knife to profit forecasts despite the threat of recession, something they had no qualms about doing with bottom-up price targets at the first sign of equity weakness this year.

함의: 실적 전망치 하향이 본격 시작될 것 같지만, 여전히 전망치에 칼을 대는 것을 망설이고 있음.

Chinese authorities are preparing to impose a fine of more than $1 billion on ride-hailing giant Didi Global, bringing an end to a yearlong investigation into the company's cybersecurity practices, according to people familiar with the issue. Once the penalty is announced, the government plans to ease an earlier restriction banning Didi from adding new users to its platform, and allow the Beijing-based technology company's mobile apps to be restored to domestic app stores, some of the people said. The fine will also pave the way for Didi, whose app is used by tens of millions of users in China each month, to kick-start a new share listing in Hong Kong, these people said. The Cyberspace Administration of China didn't immediately respond to written questions. The company didn't immediately reply to requests for comment.

함의: 벌금이 확정되면 많은 규제를 풀어주는 과정이 이어질 것이라 함.

There’s no doubt what Monday’s biggest market news was in New York. Apple Inc. stock fell more than 2% in its worst session in almost three weeks after Bloomberg revealed the company’s plans to slow hiring and spending to cope with a potential economic downturn. The news, shortly after midday, sparked an immediate tumble. Until now, shares of the iPhone-maker had fallen roughly 17% for the year, in step with the broader market rout. The announcement undercut the market, with other big “FANG” internet platforms such as Alphabet Inc. and Microsoft Corp. also falling. The tech stalwart had been among the companies that beat Wall Street expectations throughout the pandemic, and had come to be seen as a defensive stock, so any negative news was bound to hurt sentiment across the market. A “healthy correction” was in order, and what looks like some seriously unhealthy speculative excess has now been wrung out of the market. However, it’s worth noting that from the Great Financial Crisis through to about 2018, tech basically traded at the same multiple as the rest of the market. Tech’s premium could easily fall further from here.

함의: 애플의 소식에 기술주들이 순식간에 하락했던 월요일, 2008년에서 2018년까지 기술주는 시장지수 대비 밸류에이션 프리미엄이 없었단 사실을 알고 있는가?

The broad based risk-off sentiment that has dominated markets so far in 2022 has seen value stocks outperform growth stocks by quite a margin. That may be about to change though, as fears of a recession go truly mainstream.

함의: 경기침체 우려가 시장을 잠식하며 가치주 대비 성장주 상대성과가 뒤집힐 수 있는 기로에 위치함.

Over the past few years, President Xi Jinping has reined in China’s biggest tech companies, stamped out democracy in Hong Kong and locked down 26 million people in Shanghai to eliminate Covid cases. Yet he now faces a surprise challenge from middle-class homeowners who are watching their family wealth slip away with a sustained slide in the property market, which makes up a fifth of China’s economic activity. Some 70% of household wealth in China is tied up in property, far more than in the US, making it one of the most sensitive political issues for the Communist Party. For months Xi has stood firm in reining in over-leveraged Chinese developers, spurring a record wave of defaults that spooked global investors and brought at least 24 leading property companies to the brink of collapse. In the process, more than $80 billion has been wiped from its offshore bond market. But now ordinary Chinese people are publicly revolting, with rapidly escalating boycotts on mortgage payments spread across at least 301 projects in about 91 cities. These homeowners accuse developers of failing to deliver apartments they’ve already paid for: the value of mortgages that could be affected has swelled to an estimated 2 trillion yuan ($297 billion).

함의: 기술 기업 통제, 홍콩 탄압, 상해 봉쇄, 그리고 24개 부동산 기업을 파산 직전까지 몰아세운 절대권력자, 하지만 가계자산의 70% 가까운 비중의 부동산 문제로 91개 도시 301개 프로젝트 보이콧 때문에 공개적 반란을 맞이하고 있음.

Scarred by Shanghai’s chaotic lockdown under the Covid-Zero policy that has made China a global outlier, Hu is joining what investment migration consultancy Henley & Partners estimates is a cohort of 10,000 high-net-worth residents seeking to pull $48 billion from China this year — the second-largest predicted wealth and people outflow for a country after Russia. The big question now hanging over China’s rich is whether President Xi Jinping’s government will let them leave. Popular destinations include the US, Singapore, Australia, Canada and places in Europe. Some of these countries have made migration processes more strict, or pulled back on investor visa schemes. Places where investment requirements are relatively low —  such as Spain, Portugal or Ireland — could also become more popular, one private banker said.

함의: 중국 국적을 버리고 떠나는 거액 자산가들, 과연 이들을 내버려둘지에 대한 문제에 관심이 집중되고 있음.

"If you have knowledge, let others light their candles in it."

- Margaret Fuller

Gazprom will restart gas exports through its Nord Stream pipeline to Europe on Thursday, albeit at reduced capacity. Vladimir Putin said the country's ready to supply as much gas as needed, Tass reported. Still, the EU is set to propose a voluntary 15% cut in natural gas use by member states starting next month on concern Russia may still halt supplies of the fuel. Germany is said to be nearing a state-led bailout of gas giant Uniper.

함의: 러시아가 가스공급을 재개할 것이라해도 유럽 내 천연가스 사용량 15% 감축을 시행할 것임.

The ECB on Thursday is expected to raise rates for the first time in more than a decade. The prospect that it could even hike by 50bps to zero is helping to spur a recovery in the euro, with many saying the ECB would be wise to show a determination to avoid falling further behind the curve on inflation. The difficulty for policy makers is that their own decisions could readily be outweighed by whatever Russia decides to do about natural gas supplies at a time when Europe and the UK are sanctioning it over the invasion of Ukraine. That threatens to over-write the normal central bank conundrum of balancing growth against inflation, because soaring energy prices are driving inflation up and growth down at the same time. Just take a look at the way copper, often regarded as a proxy for the global growth outlook, has come crashing down while the war in Ukraine sends gas prices spiking.

함의: 목요일 유럽중앙은행이 첫 금리인상을 단행할 것으로 예상되는 가운데, 물가와 성장의 균형을 맞추는 과제가 중앙은행이 무엇을 해도 통제 불가한 에너지 가격으로 인해 매우 어렵게 된 상황임.

The combination of persistently high inflation and slower growth has kept credit investors focused on two key questions: 1. How do corporate bond credit spreads behave during episodes of low growth and high inflation? and 2. What conditions need to be satisfied for risk appetite to recover and spreads to start moving tighter? Using data going back to the early 1970s, we identify four periods that fit a “low growth/high inflation” regime. In each of these episodes, the magnitude of the spread widening was not any more severe than during other challenging times for credit risk, outside of the Great Financial Crisis. Moreover, during these low growth/high inflation periods we find that growth, not inflation, provided the better signal for an inflection point in risk-sentiment. Specifically, credit spreads start to normalize and grind tighter after growth hits its trough, as opposed to when inflation passes its peak.

보고서: 회사채 투자자들 사이에 궁금점은 물가와 성장 어느 부분에 초점을 두는가인데, 분석에 의하면 위험선호심리와 신용스프레드 축소 모두 성장에 더 민감했고, 특히 스프레드의 경우 물가가 고점을 지날 때가 아니라 성장이 저점을 지날 때부터 회복되었음. (Goldman Sachs - Growth vs. inflation, What matters more for corporate credit?)

The Federal Reserve will need to go on a longer tightening cycle and raise interest rates well into next year to control inflation that Blackstone Group sees as “more deeply entrenched” in the US. “My own view is the Fed funds rate could exceed 4%. I think they could go above 4.5%, maybe even closer to 5%,” said Joseph Zidle, chief investment strategist in Blackstone’s Private Wealth Solutions group. Several indicators, such as shelter and wages, as well as the general capacity constraints in the US economy, are showing that inflation is running hotter, which will require a “bigger and longer” central bank response, said Zidle.

함의: 시장의 긴축 속도 조절 기대와 달리 인플레이션 통제를 위해 긴축 사이클은 내년까지, 정책금리는 최대 5%까지 인상할 수 있다고 봄.

UK inflation hit a new 40-year high in June, intensifying the cost of living crisis and heaping pressure on the Bank of England to deliver an aggressive interest-rate increase next month. Consumer prices rose 9.4% from a year earlier, the biggest increase since February 1982, the Office for National Statistics said Wednesday. The acceleration from 9.1% in May was driven by a 9.3% surge in the price of motor fuel over the month. 

함의: 기록적 물가의 연속임.

European semiconductor stocks will likely be in focus today as chip tool maker ASML slashed its full-year forecast as a decision to delay testing its machines to speed up deliveries continues to hit earnings. ASML now expects sales to rise 10% in the year compared with its earlier forecast of 20% growth. Technology stocks are down ~29% this year in Europe, making them the worst performing sector in the region this year.

함의: ASML은 올해 매출 증가율 전망을 당초 20%에서 10%로 낮춤.