Bottom-line: 비트코인이 작년 8월 이후 처음으로 25,000달러 수준을 회복 한 뒤 기술적 저항에 부딪혀 있음. 지난 해 4분기 경기가 경착륙할 것이란 우려에서 올해 경기가 착륙조차 하지 않을 것으로 시장 기대가 급격히 바뀌면서 위험자산들이 일제히 가격에 힘을 받고 있음. 여전히 약세를 뒷받침하는 의견도 많기 때문에 강세론과 약세론 사이의 핵심적 대결은 현재의 25,000달러 수준을 기술적 분기점으로 둘 가능성이 높음.
The $25,000 level for Bitcoin is emerging as a key technical hurdle for the token’s partial bounce from last year’s crypto rout. Bitcoin scaled that level on Feb. 16 for the first time since August but has struggled to stay above it. The largest digital coin advanced 2% on Monday to fluctuate just around the $25,000 mark. “With the market swapping the ‘hard landing’ narrative of the fourth quarter last year to one of ‘no landing’ in the first quarter of 2023, speculative assets have been well supported, including Bitcoin,” Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG Australia Pty, wrote in a note. At the same time, skeptics contend US economic resilience will just end up with higher-for-longer borrowing costs that will undo the sanguine mood. The crypto sector also faces a US crackdown after the collapse of the FTX exchange. The bull-bear tussle for now is being fought out around $25,000 for Bitcoin.
The $25,000 level for Bitcoin is emerging as a key technical hurdle for the token’s partial bounce from last year’s crypto rout. Bitcoin scaled that level on Feb. 16 for the first time since August but has struggled to stay above it. The largest digital coin advanced 2% on Monday to fluctuate just around the $25,000 mark. “With the market swapping the ‘hard landing’ narrative of the fourth quarter last year to one of ‘no landing’ in the first quarter of 2023, speculative assets have been well supported, including Bitcoin,” Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG Australia Pty, wrote in a note. At the same time, skeptics contend US economic resilience will just end up with higher-for-longer borrowing costs that will undo the sanguine mood. The crypto sector also faces a US crackdown after the collapse of the FTX exchange. The bull-bear tussle for now is being fought out around $25,000 for Bitcoin.
Bottom-line: 전세계 채권의 매도 속에 중국 채권이 이를 피할 수 있었던 것은 지급준비율이나 대출우대금리를 통한 완화적 정책이 있을 것이란 기대 덕분이었음. 그러나 가까운 시일 내 중국이 완화적 정책을 내놓지 않을 것으로 예상되는 가운데 기어코 채권 거래자들이 이를 수용하고 매도에 나서기 시작함. 지난 달 역외 펀드들은 채권의 순매도자로 전환했으며, 향후 추가적인 채권 매도 압력이 있을 수 있음.
The selloff for China 10-year bond futures is gathering pace as traders give up on the hope of any near-term policy easing, making yuan debt more vulnerable to negative external forces. China bonds had been avoiding the brunt of the global bond selloff on the lingering hope there would be another RRR easing or a lowering of the LPR. However, the narrative from China’s media has shifted and the LPR was held steady again this week. Moreover, the PBOC’s big injection of liquidity last week suggests the central bank is focused on surgical fixes for tight money markets, rather than offering a blanket easing with fiscal policy firmly in expansionary mood. Meanwhile, offshore funds flipped back to being net sellers of China’s bonds last month. The downward pressure from Treasuries may now fully engulf China debt as the reality bites that more domestic easing is very unlikely.
The selloff for China 10-year bond futures is gathering pace as traders give up on the hope of any near-term policy easing, making yuan debt more vulnerable to negative external forces. China bonds had been avoiding the brunt of the global bond selloff on the lingering hope there would be another RRR easing or a lowering of the LPR. However, the narrative from China’s media has shifted and the LPR was held steady again this week. Moreover, the PBOC’s big injection of liquidity last week suggests the central bank is focused on surgical fixes for tight money markets, rather than offering a blanket easing with fiscal policy firmly in expansionary mood. Meanwhile, offshore funds flipped back to being net sellers of China’s bonds last month. The downward pressure from Treasuries may now fully engulf China debt as the reality bites that more domestic easing is very unlikely.
Bottom-line: 최근 발표되는 경제지표들이 경기침체 우려를 잠식시켜주고 있지만, 국채 수익률 곡선에서 투자자들은 의문을 가지기 시작함. 일반적으로 경기침체를 앞두고 뒤집혔던 국채 수익률 곡선이 다시 가파르게 회복하는 모습을 보이기 때문, 특히 최근 중앙은행 인사들이 강한 어조로 추가 금리인상을 강조했음에도 단기 금리가 아닌 장기 금리 위주로 상승했기 때문임. 이런 국채 수익률 움직임은 빠르면 올 여름 경기침체를 예고하며, 중앙은행의 금리인하에 대한 잘못 된 평가를 할 가능성을 남김.
Recession fears have abated in recent weeks with a mini-slew of buoyant economic data. But the yield curve may have something different to say. Certain parts of the curve tend to steepen first ahead of a recession, and have been doing so since mid-January. This is all the more notable given it has not re-flattened in the face of a more hawkish Fed. This recent steepening would put the next recession as early as the summer, leaving interest-rate futures mispricing the depth and timing of the Fed’s cutting cycle.
Recession fears have abated in recent weeks with a mini-slew of buoyant economic data. But the yield curve may have something different to say. Certain parts of the curve tend to steepen first ahead of a recession, and have been doing so since mid-January. This is all the more notable given it has not re-flattened in the face of a more hawkish Fed. This recent steepening would put the next recession as early as the summer, leaving interest-rate futures mispricing the depth and timing of the Fed’s cutting cycle.
Bottom-line: 최근 높은 금리 환경에서도 예상을 뛰어넘는 경제지표가 발표되는 가운데, 투자자들은 지난 달 보다 지난 주에 오히려 경기와 기업 실적 악화를 더 걱정하고 있다는 흥미로운 점을 채권 만기간 수익률 차이 변화에서 읽을 수 있음. 지난 달 투자등급 회사채의 경우 짧은 만기 내에서는 수익률 차이가 줄고, 긴 만기에서는 수익률 차이가 확대되며 중앙은행의 금리인상을 우려 한 반면, 지난 주 만기 구분없이 비슷한 수준의 수익률 차이 확대를 보이며 되려 중앙은행의 행동이 경제의 어느 부뷴을 망가지게 하고 결국 침체에 이를 것이란 우려를 반영함. 이미 높은 금리환경에서도 예상보다 건강한 경제지표를 보고도, 또 다시 경제를 걱정하는 흥미로운 상황임.
Investment-grade bond investors are starting to worry about the economy and less about the Fed. That, at least, is what it looks like from the movement of bond spreads last week. Corporate-bond trading patterns in the past month suggest traders were concerned the Fed will refrain from cutting rates as much as expected -- which fits after the January jobs surprise. Longer-duration bonds widened while shorter-duration bonds tightened. That looks like a market concerned about higher yields. But the widening in the past week affected all durations equally. Moreover, if we break it down by rating, lower-rated bonds widened more. Bonds rated BBB widened 5.6 bps last week on average, twice the 2.8-bp widening in AA debt. Among junk issuers, riskier debt underperformed more also. That’s interesting given that last week’s data pointed to a healthy economy as well as stubborn inflation. One possible interpretation of that data is that Fed rate hikes have yet to bite and that they will have to keep rates higher for longer, increasing the risk that the central bank breaks something in the economy and triggers a downturn or recession. That seems to be the way corporate bond traders are reading the situation.
Investment-grade bond investors are starting to worry about the economy and less about the Fed. That, at least, is what it looks like from the movement of bond spreads last week. Corporate-bond trading patterns in the past month suggest traders were concerned the Fed will refrain from cutting rates as much as expected -- which fits after the January jobs surprise. Longer-duration bonds widened while shorter-duration bonds tightened. That looks like a market concerned about higher yields. But the widening in the past week affected all durations equally. Moreover, if we break it down by rating, lower-rated bonds widened more. Bonds rated BBB widened 5.6 bps last week on average, twice the 2.8-bp widening in AA debt. Among junk issuers, riskier debt underperformed more also. That’s interesting given that last week’s data pointed to a healthy economy as well as stubborn inflation. One possible interpretation of that data is that Fed rate hikes have yet to bite and that they will have to keep rates higher for longer, increasing the risk that the central bank breaks something in the economy and triggers a downturn or recession. That seems to be the way corporate bond traders are reading the situation.
The minutes also said “almost all’’ officials agreed it was appropriate to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at the meeting, while “a few” favored or could have supported a bigger 50 basis-point hike.
Zero “disinflation” mentions versus 91 “inflation” mentions, down from 103 at the last meeting.
Bottom-line: 여전히 25bp씩 금리인상을 선호할 것으로 보임.
Fed speak the next two weeks could move market expectations. Although ‘a few’ members might favor a 50 bps hike, we think ultimately the Fed will remain in calibration mode and move in 25 bps increments.
Fed speak the next two weeks could move market expectations. Although ‘a few’ members might favor a 50 bps hike, we think ultimately the Fed will remain in calibration mode and move in 25 bps increments.
Bottom-line: 일부는 인플레이션 하락을 동반하는 경제 성장을, 일부는 여전히 올해 침체 위험을 예상함.
Some participants judged that recent economic data signaled a somewhat higher chance of continued subdued economic growth, with inflation falling over time. Other participants noted that the probability of the economy entering a recession in 2023 remained elevated.
Some participants judged that recent economic data signaled a somewhat higher chance of continued subdued economic growth, with inflation falling over time. Other participants noted that the probability of the economy entering a recession in 2023 remained elevated.
Bottom-line: 올해 인플레이션이 급격히 하락할 것으로 보면서도, 2025년이 되어서야 중앙은행이 목표하는 인플레이션 수준에 도달할 수 있을 것으로 생각하고 있었음.
With steep declines in consumer energy prices and a substantial moderation in food price inflation expected for this year, total inflation was projected to step down markedly this year and then to track core inflation over the following two years. In 2025, both total and core PCE price inflation were expected to be near 2 percent.
With steep declines in consumer energy prices and a substantial moderation in food price inflation expected for this year, total inflation was projected to step down markedly this year and then to track core inflation over the following two years. In 2025, both total and core PCE price inflation were expected to be near 2 percent.
Bottom-line: 금리인상을 중간에 종료할 것에 대한 내용은 없으며, 지난 기자회견에서 파월 의장은 그 질문에 오늘의 의사록을 보시라 했었음.
When a reporter on Feb. 1 asked about whether policymakers discussed a pause in rate hikes, Powell suggested looking at the minutes. But I’m not seeing any sign of such a discussion. No pause suggested in this language.
When a reporter on Feb. 1 asked about whether policymakers discussed a pause in rate hikes, Powell suggested looking at the minutes. But I’m not seeing any sign of such a discussion. No pause suggested in this language.
Bottom-line: 제이피모건이 2018년 2월, 변동성에 반대로 베팅한 상품이 촉발한 시장 충격 상황을 만기가 하루도 남지 않은 옵션들이 재현할 수 있으며, 심할 경우 하루 300억 달러 규모의 매도가 촉발 될 것이라 경고 했으나 뱅크 오브 아메리카는 그럴 것 같지 않다 반박함. S&P 500 옵션 거래의 절반 가까이를 이런 하루도 남지 않은 옵션이 차지하고 있지만, 이 많은 거래 유형이 단순 한 방향이 아니며, 어느 한 거래가 위험에 처해도 충격이 다른 형태로 전이되지 않을 정도로 시장이 균형잡혀 분산 된 상태로 봤기 때문임. 즉, 2018년 2월 2주만에 -10% 지수 하락을 가져 온 것은 모두가 한 방향에 쏠린 상태 때문이지만, 지금은 그렇게까지 일방적 방향에 쏠린 거래가 보이진 않음.
A week after JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Marko Kolanovic issued a “Volmageddon 2.0” warning on the explosive rise in short-dated options, Bank of America Corp. strategists are pushing back. Investor positioning in hot derivative-powered trades — like S&P 500 contracts that expire within 24 hours — looks less threatening to the wider marketplace compared with the mania that led up to the 2018 volatility rout, per BofA. The reality is more nuanced, according to BofA strategists including Nitin Saksena. Given short-term options are used in so many different strategies, if one investing style were to falter, the shock to the broader equity market would likely be manageable. Some are “raising the alarm that directional end-users are net short out-of-the-money 0DTEs, thus sowing the seeds for a ‘tail wags the dog’ event akin to the Feb-18 ‘Volmageddon,’” the strategists wrote in a note. “The evidence so far suggests that 0DTE positioning is more balanced/complex than a market that is simply one-way short tails.”. In Kolanovic’s view, the risk involves options dealers, who take the other side of trades and must buy and sell stocks to keep a market-neutral stance. On a big down day, such intraday selling would reach $30 billion, his model showed. Not so fast, per BofA. To Saksena, the extreme investor positioning emboldened the 2018 “Volmageddon” episode, where everyone was betting on a decline in volatility that left the market vulnerable to a violent reversal. Back then, the main culprits were exchange-traded products designed to pay investors the inverse of equity volatility. When turbulence in stocks ramped up in early February of that year, it triggered a snowballing effect that eventually sent many such strategies hurtling toward worthlessness, contributing to a 10% plunge in the S&P 500 over two weeks. Right now, the ingredients for a market shock, such as extremely one-sided positioning, are largely absent, according to BofA’s Saksena. Take implied volatility, a gauge of the cost of options. For 0DTE contracts, they typically fetch a pricing premium that’s 2.5 times larger for longer-dated S&P 500 options — a level that the team said is “likely inconsistent with a market that has been overrun by option sellers.”.
A week after JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Marko Kolanovic issued a “Volmageddon 2.0” warning on the explosive rise in short-dated options, Bank of America Corp. strategists are pushing back. Investor positioning in hot derivative-powered trades — like S&P 500 contracts that expire within 24 hours — looks less threatening to the wider marketplace compared with the mania that led up to the 2018 volatility rout, per BofA. The reality is more nuanced, according to BofA strategists including Nitin Saksena. Given short-term options are used in so many different strategies, if one investing style were to falter, the shock to the broader equity market would likely be manageable. Some are “raising the alarm that directional end-users are net short out-of-the-money 0DTEs, thus sowing the seeds for a ‘tail wags the dog’ event akin to the Feb-18 ‘Volmageddon,’” the strategists wrote in a note. “The evidence so far suggests that 0DTE positioning is more balanced/complex than a market that is simply one-way short tails.”. In Kolanovic’s view, the risk involves options dealers, who take the other side of trades and must buy and sell stocks to keep a market-neutral stance. On a big down day, such intraday selling would reach $30 billion, his model showed. Not so fast, per BofA. To Saksena, the extreme investor positioning emboldened the 2018 “Volmageddon” episode, where everyone was betting on a decline in volatility that left the market vulnerable to a violent reversal. Back then, the main culprits were exchange-traded products designed to pay investors the inverse of equity volatility. When turbulence in stocks ramped up in early February of that year, it triggered a snowballing effect that eventually sent many such strategies hurtling toward worthlessness, contributing to a 10% plunge in the S&P 500 over two weeks. Right now, the ingredients for a market shock, such as extremely one-sided positioning, are largely absent, according to BofA’s Saksena. Take implied volatility, a gauge of the cost of options. For 0DTE contracts, they typically fetch a pricing premium that’s 2.5 times larger for longer-dated S&P 500 options — a level that the team said is “likely inconsistent with a market that has been overrun by option sellers.”.