Docent: 중앙은행이 정책금리를 높이는데, 미국 예금금리는 왜 0.23%에 있을까에 대한 도슨트임. 일반적으로 중앙은행은 금리를 통해 시중의 통화를 은행에 들어와 묶이도록, 때론 은행 밖에서 활발하게 사용되도록 유인함. 가령, 지금과 같은 때는 금리를 높이고, 이를 은행도 예금금리를 올리며 따라와서 시중의 인플레이션을 만드는 화폐유통을 줄이고 싶어할 것인데, 0.23%의 예금금리에 누가 저축을 할까, 반문할 수 밖에 없음. 바클레이즈의 분석가는 예금금리가 정책금리를 따라 오르는 것은 과거에는 시간의 문제지 결국 같이 갔지만, 지금은 그런 관계가 깨진 것으로 추측함. 아무리 은행의 예금금리가 오를 때는 깃털같고, 내릴 땐 무거운 바위 같다해도 최근의 현상은 지나치게 큰 차이를 남겨두고 있기 때문임. 그가 생각키로 오랜기간 양적완화로 인해 은행은 이미 너무 많은 예금을 보유하고 있어 사실 상 추가 예금이 필요치 않는 것 같다 함. 또한 과거 은행 간 예금금리로 경쟁이 있었다면, 지금은 거액 자산가를 대상으로 하는 서비스 경쟁력을 높이는데 더 집중한다는 것임. 이것이 왜 중앙은행이 정책금리를 올려도 은행의 예금금리가 반응치 않는지, 그 관계가 약해진 이유를 상당히 설명해줄 것임.
There are a bunch of different ways that benchmark interest rates affect the average person, but perhaps the most visible (other than through mortgage rates) comes via the rate of return on your savings account. At the moment, the average interest rate on US bank accounts is just 0.23% according to Bankrate.com, which is a lot lower than benchmark rates that now sit at 4.5-4.75%. So why the discrepancy? Aren't banks supposed to raise their savings rate as the Federal Reserve hikes?. Barclays strategist Joseph Abate, As he argues, deposit rates usually do go up during tightening cycles -- it's just a question of how fast. That's because banks typically begin tightening cycles with lots and lots of deposits, which means they're not really in any rush to try to get more. As customers start moving their money into alternative higher-yielding products (like money market funds), banks begin to raise their rates to replace lost deposits. The tendency for bank deposit rates in a "rising rate environment go up like a feather, and in a interest rate cutting environment where the Fed is easing policy, they sink like a stone, that's been a phenomena for decades," says Abate. But there is an argument to be made that the relationship between benchmark rates and bank deposit ones has been weakening in recent years. One explanation for this has to do with quantitative easing, which has resulted in banks holding more deposits than ever before -- meaning they're not really in a hurry to compete for more. But Abate also points to something else: "Banks increasingly, especially the larger domestic institutions, they're not competing specifically on explicit interest. Rather than compete on interest rate, they compete on price services." So banks haven't been raising interest rates because they haven't really needed to. They still have plenty of deposits sloshing around and big clients are more likely to respond to extra services and high-touch offerings than a measly extra basis point or two. That's not going to be any comfort to people earning 0.23% on their savings, but it goes some way toward explaining the frustratingly slow way in which Fed hikes are passed on.
There are a bunch of different ways that benchmark interest rates affect the average person, but perhaps the most visible (other than through mortgage rates) comes via the rate of return on your savings account. At the moment, the average interest rate on US bank accounts is just 0.23% according to Bankrate.com, which is a lot lower than benchmark rates that now sit at 4.5-4.75%. So why the discrepancy? Aren't banks supposed to raise their savings rate as the Federal Reserve hikes?. Barclays strategist Joseph Abate, As he argues, deposit rates usually do go up during tightening cycles -- it's just a question of how fast. That's because banks typically begin tightening cycles with lots and lots of deposits, which means they're not really in any rush to try to get more. As customers start moving their money into alternative higher-yielding products (like money market funds), banks begin to raise their rates to replace lost deposits. The tendency for bank deposit rates in a "rising rate environment go up like a feather, and in a interest rate cutting environment where the Fed is easing policy, they sink like a stone, that's been a phenomena for decades," says Abate. But there is an argument to be made that the relationship between benchmark rates and bank deposit ones has been weakening in recent years. One explanation for this has to do with quantitative easing, which has resulted in banks holding more deposits than ever before -- meaning they're not really in a hurry to compete for more. But Abate also points to something else: "Banks increasingly, especially the larger domestic institutions, they're not competing specifically on explicit interest. Rather than compete on interest rate, they compete on price services." So banks haven't been raising interest rates because they haven't really needed to. They still have plenty of deposits sloshing around and big clients are more likely to respond to extra services and high-touch offerings than a measly extra basis point or two. That's not going to be any comfort to people earning 0.23% on their savings, but it goes some way toward explaining the frustratingly slow way in which Fed hikes are passed on.
Bottom-line: Inflation hotter than expected.
PCE core accelerated 4.7% in January, above all analyst estimates. And the month-on-month gain matched the highest forecasts.
PCE core accelerated 4.7% in January, above all analyst estimates. And the month-on-month gain matched the highest forecasts.
Bottom-line: 물가지표가 전년 대비로 상승한 것은 지난 9월 이후 처음이고, 중앙은행은 한 해를 이렇게 시작하고 싶지 않았을 것임.
It’s the first increase in the core price index on a year-on-year basis since September. Just not the direction that policymakers wanted to be heading at the start of 2023.
It’s the first increase in the core price index on a year-on-year basis since September. Just not the direction that policymakers wanted to be heading at the start of 2023.
Market Reaction: 스왑 시장 거래를 통해 보면 25bp 크기의 금리인상을 세 번 더하고 5.4%의 최종정책금리로 책정 중이며, 큰 변화는 없음.
Swaps traders continue to price in that the Fed will likely lift its policy rate 25 basis points at its next three meetings. Traders see the terminal federal funds rate to be at about 5.4% by July, from around 5.38% earlier in the day.
Swaps traders continue to price in that the Fed will likely lift its policy rate 25 basis points at its next three meetings. Traders see the terminal federal funds rate to be at about 5.4% by July, from around 5.38% earlier in the day.
Implication: 이번 달 고용, 소비, 물가 모두 강하다는데 동의하지 못할 이유가 하나도 없음. 핵심은, 그럼 이 강한 경제 상태가 지속되어 줄 것인가? 문제다.
So there was really no disagreement across a raft of indicators that January was a strong month for the economy, from jobs to consumption to inflation.
So there was really no disagreement across a raft of indicators that January was a strong month for the economy, from jobs to consumption to inflation.
Bottom-line: 중국 본토 주가지수와 홍콩 주가지수의 상호 상대성과를 비교할 때 10월 이후 처음으로 본토 주가지수 우위를 점했음. 3월 5일부터 시작되는 전국인민대표대회에서 경제성장을 위한 부양책이 나올 수 있다는 기대감이 가장 큰 동력으로 작용했는데, 모건스탠리의 경우도 이제 홍콩보다 본토 주식에 더 집중할 시기라 권고하고 있음. 중국 본토의 주가지수를 구성하는 기업들은 내수경제에 밀접한 관련을 가지고 있기 때문에 미국의 금리상승과 같은 대외 요인에 덜 영향을 받는다는 장점도 있음. 반면, 홍콩 주식의 경우 전세계 유동성에 노출도가 높기 때문에 특히 중앙은행이 긴축정책을 사용하는 시기에 성과가 부진한 편임.
China's upcoming National People's Congress is spurring a preference for onshore stocks over Hong Kong stocks as investors expect the former to reap more from potential pro-growth measures at political gatherings. CSI 300 index of mainland stocks meter "Now is the right time to add onshore exposure," say strategists at Morgan Stanley, whose country stocks traded in Hong Kong this month for the first time since October. Chinese stocks rally expects the NPC starting on March 5 to be the new catalyst for the market, and more stimulus to keep the economy thriving. Regional stocks, which mainly target domestic customers, are considered key beneficiaries. Low correlations with global macro factors such as rising US interest rates also make them more attractive to investors. “A-states have more exposure to consumption and local economies, etc. Investors are expecting some kind of catalyst to come out of NPC,” he said. Marvin Chen, a Bloomberg Intelligence analyst, refers to stocks traded on the mainland. Hong Kong-listed stocks also have more exposure to global liquidity flows, so they tend to underperform when the market fears Fed tightening, he added.
China's upcoming National People's Congress is spurring a preference for onshore stocks over Hong Kong stocks as investors expect the former to reap more from potential pro-growth measures at political gatherings. CSI 300 index of mainland stocks meter "Now is the right time to add onshore exposure," say strategists at Morgan Stanley, whose country stocks traded in Hong Kong this month for the first time since October. Chinese stocks rally expects the NPC starting on March 5 to be the new catalyst for the market, and more stimulus to keep the economy thriving. Regional stocks, which mainly target domestic customers, are considered key beneficiaries. Low correlations with global macro factors such as rising US interest rates also make them more attractive to investors. “A-states have more exposure to consumption and local economies, etc. Investors are expecting some kind of catalyst to come out of NPC,” he said. Marvin Chen, a Bloomberg Intelligence analyst, refers to stocks traded on the mainland. Hong Kong-listed stocks also have more exposure to global liquidity flows, so they tend to underperform when the market fears Fed tightening, he added.
Bottom-line: 제이피모건과 노무라증권에 따르면 기계적으로 추세를 추종하여 매수/매도하는 전략들이 200일 이동평균선과 같은 주요 지지선을 주가지수가 하회할 때, 약 500억 달러 규모의 매도가 발생할 수 있다고 함. 금요일 종가 기준으로 S&P 500 지수의 200일 이동평균선은 1% 남짓한 여유만을 남겨두고 있었음. 추세를 추종하는 이 전략(CTA Strategy)의 경우 지난 10월 이후 주식시장 상승 반전의 주요 동인이었음. 다만, 이런 자금의 움직임을 추정하는 모형들은 각기 다른 결과로 나타나기도 함(도이치뱅크의 자료를 볼 경우, CTA는 2년래 최고치로 현재 주식을 매수 중임).
After fueling the big Wall Street rebound, trend-following quants now look poised to offload stocks if the S&P 500 falls below a key technical threshold, warns JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s trading desk. Should the benchmark gauge slip under its average price from the past 200 days, so-called commodity trading advisors could be forced to unload about $50 billion of equities, the JPMorgan team estimated. The index on Friday came within 1% of the threshold, which sat near 3,940. Fresh selling would deepen a retreat from global stocks by CTAs that is, according to Nomura Securities International, already at $40 billion in the past two weeks. CTAs were among the quant players that helped spur the equity rally since October only to turn into sellers in 2023, dimming the market’s new-year advance. Getting a clear picture of the quant world isn’t easy, and models built on subjective assumptions often spit out different numbers on money flows. While far from an exact science, such projections offer a lens into the positioning among fast-money traders, a technical force that Wall Street is increasingly fixated on in a market where fundamental narratives are shifting constantly.
After fueling the big Wall Street rebound, trend-following quants now look poised to offload stocks if the S&P 500 falls below a key technical threshold, warns JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s trading desk. Should the benchmark gauge slip under its average price from the past 200 days, so-called commodity trading advisors could be forced to unload about $50 billion of equities, the JPMorgan team estimated. The index on Friday came within 1% of the threshold, which sat near 3,940. Fresh selling would deepen a retreat from global stocks by CTAs that is, according to Nomura Securities International, already at $40 billion in the past two weeks. CTAs were among the quant players that helped spur the equity rally since October only to turn into sellers in 2023, dimming the market’s new-year advance. Getting a clear picture of the quant world isn’t easy, and models built on subjective assumptions often spit out different numbers on money flows. While far from an exact science, such projections offer a lens into the positioning among fast-money traders, a technical force that Wall Street is increasingly fixated on in a market where fundamental narratives are shifting constantly.
Technical Story: 피보나치 수열로 알려진 되돌림, 그리고 미국 10년물 국채금리에 관한 기술적 분석임. 최근 국채금리가 지속 상승하며 4%라는 도달하기 어려운 수준을 과연 돌파할 수 있을지 관심이 쏠리고 있음. 특히 10년물 미국 국채를 1981년 15.84%의 금리에서 2020년 0.31%의 금리를 연결했을 때 23.6%의 첫 피보나치 되돌림 수준이 4%기 때문임. 많은 투자자들이 10년물 국채금리가 4%에 진입하면 상당한 국채 투자의 매력이 있지만, 그만큼 뚫기 어려운 저항선을 돌파할지도 귀추가 주목되는 일임.
Some mixed data and perhaps a burst of month-end rebalancing flows helped Treasuries rebound overnight. But that also draws further attention to just how tough a nut the 4% level is to crack for benchmark 10-year yields. A number of investors and strategists have flagged 4% as the sort of level where 10-year Treasuries become very attractive — at times adding a wry comment about the power of round numbers. This particular round number may also have some extra oomph thanks to a long-term trend line derived from the workings of Italian 13th century mathematician Leonardo of Pisa, later known as Fibonacci. Traders often use the sequences he described to guide their positioning, and 3.98% or so happens to be the first, 23.6% retracement of the four-decade decline in the yield to 0.31% in 2020 from its 15.84% peak in 1981.
Some mixed data and perhaps a burst of month-end rebalancing flows helped Treasuries rebound overnight. But that also draws further attention to just how tough a nut the 4% level is to crack for benchmark 10-year yields. A number of investors and strategists have flagged 4% as the sort of level where 10-year Treasuries become very attractive — at times adding a wry comment about the power of round numbers. This particular round number may also have some extra oomph thanks to a long-term trend line derived from the workings of Italian 13th century mathematician Leonardo of Pisa, later known as Fibonacci. Traders often use the sequences he described to guide their positioning, and 3.98% or so happens to be the first, 23.6% retracement of the four-decade decline in the yield to 0.31% in 2020 from its 15.84% peak in 1981.
Bottom-line: 프랑스 물가가 여전히 기록적으로 높은 수준을 유지하면서, 중앙은행이 더 높은 정책금리를 향하도록, 대통령이 생활 물가 상승에 따른 정치적 압박을 받도록 함.
French inflation accelerated to a record in February, increasing pressure on the European Central Bank to deliver more interest-rate hikes and raising political risks for President Emmanuel Macron over the rising cost of living.
French inflation accelerated to a record in February, increasing pressure on the European Central Bank to deliver more interest-rate hikes and raising political risks for President Emmanuel Macron over the rising cost of living.
Market Reaction: 프랑스 및 스페인 물가가 생각보다 높게 발표되자 시장 참여자들은 유럽 중앙은행의 최종정책금리가 내년 2월이면 4%에 이를 것이라 단정짓게 됨.
Traders cranked up European Central Bank rate hike wagers after French and Spanish inflation figures came in unexpectedly hotter than expected in February. For the first time, money markets are fully pricing in a 4% ECB terminal rate, which is expected to be reached by February 2024. That compares to a 3.5% rate expected at the start of the year and would exceed the peak for euro-area interest rates seen more than two decades ago.
Traders cranked up European Central Bank rate hike wagers after French and Spanish inflation figures came in unexpectedly hotter than expected in February. For the first time, money markets are fully pricing in a 4% ECB terminal rate, which is expected to be reached by February 2024. That compares to a 3.5% rate expected at the start of the year and would exceed the peak for euro-area interest rates seen more than two decades ago.
Technical Story: 주가지수 선물과 거래량에 대한 기술적 분석임. 유럽 주가지수는 미국보다 상대성과 우위를 점하며 두 달간 강세를 유지하고 있고 최근 발표되는 강한 인플레이션 지표조차 투자자들이 주식에서 멀리 떠나도록 하지 못했음. 특히, 한달 간 주가지수 선물 가격은 일정한 범위 내에 움직였지만, 장 중 저점에서 일간 거래의 대부분이 발생하며 저점이 오면 매수하겠다는 긍정적 투자심리를 확인시켜주고 있음.
Nearly two months into the year, the European equity market is still running strong, with even the latest warning about sticky inflation failing to throw investors off their stride for long. Stocks are faring particularly well against their US peers, leaving bears waiting for a catalyst that could derail the rally. In February, traders showed an appetite for European equities, with persistent dip buying in Euro Stoxx 50 futures suggesting positive sentiment. While the index has been relatively range bound, “it remains in an uptrend, so we have to respect that for now in the absence of other signals,” says LCM technical analyst Ben Kelly.
Nearly two months into the year, the European equity market is still running strong, with even the latest warning about sticky inflation failing to throw investors off their stride for long. Stocks are faring particularly well against their US peers, leaving bears waiting for a catalyst that could derail the rally. In February, traders showed an appetite for European equities, with persistent dip buying in Euro Stoxx 50 futures suggesting positive sentiment. While the index has been relatively range bound, “it remains in an uptrend, so we have to respect that for now in the absence of other signals,” says LCM technical analyst Ben Kelly.