Technical Story: 현재 주식시장에서 유명한 약세론자 중 한명인 모건스탠리의 윌슨은 주가의 200일 이동평균선은 기술적 핵심 지표로 널리 사용되는데, 지난 주 S&P 500 지수가 이 선을 지탱하며 반등함에 따라 약세 시장 속 주가의 단기 상승이 아직 끝나지 않았음을 보여준 것이라 함. 그는 달러 및 채권 금리 하락이 뒷받침 된다면, 이 상승은 조금 더 연장될 것으로 봄.
Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson, known for being one of Wall Street’s most bearish strategists, said he’s expecting stocks to rally in the short term. Wilson pointed to the S&P 500’s resilience at the 200-day moving average last week, a widely-monitored technical indicator of an index’s momentum against its current price. The bounce off the line suggests it may now act as a support for the benchmark. Wilson said the index is likely to move higher if Treasury yields and the dollar continue to decline. “Equity markets survived a crucial test of support last week that suggests this bear market rally is not ready to end just yet,” the strategist wrote in a note Monday.
Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson, known for being one of Wall Street’s most bearish strategists, said he’s expecting stocks to rally in the short term. Wilson pointed to the S&P 500’s resilience at the 200-day moving average last week, a widely-monitored technical indicator of an index’s momentum against its current price. The bounce off the line suggests it may now act as a support for the benchmark. Wilson said the index is likely to move higher if Treasury yields and the dollar continue to decline. “Equity markets survived a crucial test of support last week that suggests this bear market rally is not ready to end just yet,” the strategist wrote in a note Monday.
Bottom-line: 이번 중앙은행 의장의 청문회는 3월 10일 고용 지표, 3월 14일 소비자물가지표를 앞두고 있기 때문에 시장 참여자들이 원하는 구체적인 무언가를 주지 않을 가능성이 있음.
One thing to keep in mind about today’s hearing is that it comes before a key piece of economic data -- the February jobs report (March 10). So Powell may want to steer clear of giving any sort of specific guidance about what the most likely course is for the March policy meeting. In fact, there will also be the February consumer price index report (March 14) coming between Powell’s hearings this week and the next Fed meeting. So there’s some critical data ahead.
One thing to keep in mind about today’s hearing is that it comes before a key piece of economic data -- the February jobs report (March 10). So Powell may want to steer clear of giving any sort of specific guidance about what the most likely course is for the March policy meeting. In fact, there will also be the February consumer price index report (March 14) coming between Powell’s hearings this week and the next Fed meeting. So there’s some critical data ahead.
Bottom-line: 이번 청문회에서 파월 의장은 지나친 금리인상으로 인한 경기침체, 그리고 수백만명이 일자리를 잃게 되는데 대한 압박을 받을 수 있음. 중앙은행의 두 책무 중 하나가 완전고용에 최선을 다하는 것이기 때문임.
Powell can expect to be pressed hard on the issue of rate hikes potentially undermining the Fed’s mandate for maximizing sustainable employment. As we reported last week, Senator Elizabeth Warren wants Biden’s Fed vice chair pick to counter Powell on rate hikes, with the Massachusetts Democrat worried they will push the economy into a recession and result in millions losing their jobs.
Powell can expect to be pressed hard on the issue of rate hikes potentially undermining the Fed’s mandate for maximizing sustainable employment. As we reported last week, Senator Elizabeth Warren wants Biden’s Fed vice chair pick to counter Powell on rate hikes, with the Massachusetts Democrat worried they will push the economy into a recession and result in millions losing their jobs.
Implication: 보다 강한 긴축이 필요하다는 경제지표가 모여지면, 현재보다 더 빠른 속도의 금리인상을 할 준비가 된 상태임.
“If the totality of the data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes. Restoring price stability will likely require that we maintain a restrictive stance of monetary policy for some time.”
“If the totality of the data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes. Restoring price stability will likely require that we maintain a restrictive stance of monetary policy for some time.”
Bottom-line: 경제지표가 예상보다 높은 바, 최종적인 정책금리 또한 이전보다 높아질 것임.
“The latest economic data have come in stronger than expected, which suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated.”
“The latest economic data have come in stronger than expected, which suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated.”
Question: 만일 금리인상 속도를 다시 높일 경우, 중앙은행의 신뢰성에 문제가 제기 될 것임. 애초에 25bp 인상폭으로 내리지 말았어야 했던게 아닌가?
One danger of speeding things up again is that it could raise questions of credibility. In retrospect, should the Fed not have stepped down to 25 at the latest meeting?
One danger of speeding things up again is that it could raise questions of credibility. In retrospect, should the Fed not have stepped down to 25 at the latest meeting?
Brown: 중앙은행은 인플레이션을 이야기할 때 노동자의 임금이 아니라 기업을 탓해야 하지 않겠는가?
Blame corporations, not wages, for inflation. He wants the Fed to talk about it.
Blame corporations, not wages, for inflation. He wants the Fed to talk about it.
Market Reaction: 스왑 시장에 반영 된 3월 통화정책회의의 금리인상폭은 36bp로 50bp 인상 확률은 아직 50% 미만임.
The March OIS swap is pricing in 36bps of hikes for this month, still less than a 50% chance of a half-point hike, but it bears watching once Powell starts chatting. The shift in rate expectations has pushed two-year yield to a fresh cycle high of 4.96%.
The March OIS swap is pricing in 36bps of hikes for this month, still less than a 50% chance of a half-point hike, but it bears watching once Powell starts chatting. The shift in rate expectations has pushed two-year yield to a fresh cycle high of 4.96%.
Powell: 과거를 통해 보더라도, 성급한 긴축 완화를 할 수 없으며, 중앙은행의 역할을 지속 이어갈 것임.
“The historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy. We will stay the course until the job is done.”
“The historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy. We will stay the course until the job is done.”
Scott: 스캇은 브라운의 주장에 정면으로 반박하며, 최악의 인플레이션 상황에서 긴축적이지 않을 수 없다는 의견을 표명함.
“I am sure he is sincere in his rant,” Scott says of Brown, but says printing and spending trillions ahead of the worst inflation in 40 years and “out-of-control spending” is the issue. He implies Covid was used as “a Trojan horse” to try to bring in socialism.
“I am sure he is sincere in his rant,” Scott says of Brown, but says printing and spending trillions ahead of the worst inflation in 40 years and “out-of-control spending” is the issue. He implies Covid was used as “a Trojan horse” to try to bring in socialism.
Summary of Remarks: 파월 의장의 발언을 요약하자면, 물가 목표치 2%를 달성하기 위해 최선을 다할 것이며, 다만 이러한 정책 기조는 지속적으로 발표되는 경제지표에 의존할 것이란 사실을 유지했음.
Powell acknowledges the hardship caused by high inflation and expresses a strong commitment to returning inflation to the 2 percent goal. He reviews the current economic situation, highlighting the slowdown in growth but tight labor market conditions. He also mentions the increase in interest rates by 4-1/2 percentage points over the past year to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time. The Committee has been slowing the pace of interest rate increases over its past two meetings, and they will continue to make decisions meeting by meeting based on the incoming data and their implications for the outlook for economic activity and inflation. The overarching focus is to use the tools to bring inflation back down to the 2 percent goal and to keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored.
Powell acknowledges the hardship caused by high inflation and expresses a strong commitment to returning inflation to the 2 percent goal. He reviews the current economic situation, highlighting the slowdown in growth but tight labor market conditions. He also mentions the increase in interest rates by 4-1/2 percentage points over the past year to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time. The Committee has been slowing the pace of interest rate increases over its past two meetings, and they will continue to make decisions meeting by meeting based on the incoming data and their implications for the outlook for economic activity and inflation. The overarching focus is to use the tools to bring inflation back down to the 2 percent goal and to keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored.
Powell: 브라운의 암호화폐 시장에 대한 규제 질문에 파월 의장은 혁신을 막을 생각은 없으며, 다만, 사기행각과 투명성 부족에 대해서는 면밀히 주시하고 있다 답변함.
Powell says the central bank doesn’t want to stifle innovation. But the Fed is watching what’s been happening in crypto and it’s seeing fraud and a lack of transparency, among other things.
Powell says the central bank doesn’t want to stifle innovation. But the Fed is watching what’s been happening in crypto and it’s seeing fraud and a lack of transparency, among other things.
Analyst: 공통적인 반응은 예상보다 강경한 어조라는 것, 다만 모든 정책회의마다 그 전에 발표 된 경제지표에 기인할 것이라는 점 또한 강조함.
BMO - Powell’s prepared text was biased hawkishly (more so than we anticipated) with comments that the Fed is ‘prepared to increase the pace of hikes if needed’ and the ‘ultimate rate peak is likely higher than expected.’ He went on to note decisions will be made ‘meeting by meeting.
Evercore - Fed chair Powell’s prepared testimony to Congress is more hawkish than we had anticipated and risk-off. The analysis of economic data is along the lines we had expected and Powell continued to point to policy lags, but the policy lean is more aggressive and forward-leaning.
BMO - Powell’s prepared text was biased hawkishly (more so than we anticipated) with comments that the Fed is ‘prepared to increase the pace of hikes if needed’ and the ‘ultimate rate peak is likely higher than expected.’ He went on to note decisions will be made ‘meeting by meeting.
Evercore - Fed chair Powell’s prepared testimony to Congress is more hawkish than we had anticipated and risk-off. The analysis of economic data is along the lines we had expected and Powell continued to point to policy lags, but the policy lean is more aggressive and forward-leaning.
Powell: 인플레이션에 관해 파월 의장은 기대에 미치지 못하고 있으며, 가야 할 길이 멀다고 함.
We focus on everything but we also focus on core in particular, which doesn’t include energy prices. He notes that inflation hasn’t come down nearly as fast as hoped and “we still have a long way to go.”
We focus on everything but we also focus on core in particular, which doesn’t include energy prices. He notes that inflation hasn’t come down nearly as fast as hoped and “we still have a long way to go.”